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China, Brazil Top U.S. as Best Places for Investors, Poll Shows
2010-11-12 05:00:20.0 GMT
(For a report on the Bloomberg Global Poll, {POLL <GO>}.)
By Robert Schmidt
Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Investors say they are seeing
opportunity and taking on greater risk, looking more to
emerging markets such as China, Brazil and India than developed
countries, a Bloomberg survey shows.
The U.S. was in fourth place behind those economies in
offering the most opportunity, in the latest quarterly
Bloomberg Global Poll of 1,030 investors, analysts and traders
who are Bloomberg subscribers. The world's largest economy was
also named the third-worst place to invest behind the European
Union and Japan. Some respondents cited the Federal Reserve
move to buy $600 billion of Treasuries as cause for concern.
"While professional investors can make money in these
markets and protect themselves from the inevitable downturn,
the market appreciation is being driven by the Federal Reserve,
not underlying economic fundamentals," Todd Lechtenberger,
chief investment officer at Bodard Trust in Oklahoma City, said
of the U.S., in a follow-up interview.
Still, the largest group -- a 39 percent plurality -- was
bullish on the overall economic environment. Another 25 percent
said things were getting back to normal, and 35 percent said
they were still hunkering down, according to the poll conducted
on Nov. 8 by Selzer & Co., a Des Moines, Iowa-based firm.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index has climbed 14 percent
since Aug. 27, when Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the
central bank was prepared to take additional action to spur
growth. The Treasury-purchase plan that followed has been
panned by several regional Fed presidents, as well as officials
from Germany, China and Brazil.
'Artificial Money'
Some poll respondents said the move -- known as
quantitative easing because it seeks to loosen monetary policy
by buying quantities of bonds rather than lowering short-term
interest rates -- was giving a potentially dangerous jolt to
the markets.
"There is a lot of artificial money moving the market,"
said commodities trader and poll respondent Greg Metzger. "As
the Fed continues to pump cheap money into the markets, the
dollar will become further depressed and the commodities bubble
will continue to grow."
The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index has
surged more than 18 percent since Aug. 27. Rising demand for
oil and soybeans in China, as well as a drought in Russia
that's increased grain demand, are also combining to push
prices higher for consumable commodities.
China's No. 1
China was chosen by 33 percent of respondents as offering
the best opportunities for investors over the next year, with
Brazil second at 31 percent and India third with 29 percent.
The U.S. was next with 23 percent, followed by Africa at 11
percent and Russia at 10 percent.
China's economy grew 9.6 percent in the third quarter and
inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in almost two years,
the government said last month. Growth exceeded the 9.5 percent
median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey.
Brazil's recent presidential election was seen as a
positive sign by global poll respondents, with 33 percent
saying Dilma Rousseff's victory was good for investors. Twelve
percent said it was bad, and 55 percent had no idea.
Rousseff has pledged to keep in place the policies of her
mentor, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, which helped the
country win its first investment-grade rating in 2008 and led
to a six-fold increase in stocks since 2003.
The International Monetary Fund last month raised its 2010
economic growth forecast for India, citing stronger consumer
demand. The economy will expand 9.7 percent this year, the IMF
said, more than the 9.4 percent the IMF estimated in July.
Biggest Losers
On the question of which markets offer the worst
opportunities, 37 percent chose the European Union, with Japan
coming in second at 30 percent. Twenty-four percent said the
U.S. and 22 percent the U.K.
Assessments of the U.S. were divided: 32 percent of
respondents said the economy is improving, while another 32
percent said it's deteriorating. Thirty-six percent said the
economy is stable.
Economists separately surveyed by Bloomberg said U.S.
growth will strengthen as the Fed's actions underpin
confidence. The economy will steadily accelerate, reaching a
3.2 percent pace by the last quarter of 2011, according to the
median forecast of economists polled from Nov. 3 to Nov. 9.
Respondents to the Bloomberg Global Poll were more upbeat
about the world economy, with 44 percent seeing improvement, 37
percent saying it was stable and 18 percent predicting
deterioration.
Drawn to Stocks
Investors predicted stocks would offer the highest return
over the next year, with commodities being the next best
investment. On the flip side, 49 percent said bonds will have
the worst returns, while 19 percent chose real estate.
Fifty-three percent of respondents said they were
increasing their exposure to stocks over the next six months,
up 9 points from the last Bloomberg survey in September.
Another 42 percent said they would be investing more in
commodities, an increase from 36 percent.
Respondents said major stock indexes in the U.S., Europe
and Asia would all rise, with the MSCI Asian Pacific Index
drawing the most votes at 64 percent. Fifty-six percent said
the U.S.'s S&P 500 Index would be higher.
Two European indexes, the Euro Stoxx 50 and the FTSE,
fared slightly worse with just 42 percent and 43 percent,
respectively, saying they would increase. The FTSE has risen
10.4 percent over the past year, while the Euro Stoxx 50 has
fallen 1.7 percent.
Cutting Bond Holdings
On government bonds, 55 percent said they would reduce
their holdings. Corporate bonds were more mixed: 35 percent
said they were cutting exposure while 40 percent said they
would maintain their current holdings.
The investors and analysts predicted that most asset
classes would rise over the next six months, with crude oil
prices getting the most support at 65 percent. Gold was
expected to rise by 51 percent of respondents.
Forty-nine percent said the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-
year note would be higher in six months. The yield on the 10-
year note has fallen to 2.65 percent from 3.84 percent at the
beginning of the year.
Richard Koza, the founder and head trader of Atwel
International s.r.o. in Prague, said he is bullish on U.S.
companies. "They are full of cash without too much debt, with
good demand abroad for their products and especially
services," he said.
Moody's Investors Service said last month that U.S.
companies are hoarding almost $1 trillion of cash, which it
says shows borrowers are concerned the economy may tip back
into recession.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1
percentage points.
For Related News and Information:
On finance: NI FIN <GO>
On the credit crisis: NI CRUNCH BN <GO>
Top financial stories: FTOP <GO>
On banks and the law: TNI BNK LAW <GO>
Top finance news: FTOP <GO>
--With assistance from Andre Soliani in Brasilia. Editors: Mark
McQuillan, Robin Meszoly
To contact the reporter on this story:
Robert Schmidt in Washington at +1-202-624-1853 or
rschmidt5@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Lawrence Roberts at +1-202-624-1985 or lroberts13@bloomberg.net
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