(BN) Mobius Says Dubai Pledge Is ‘Giant Step,’ Worst Over

Mobius Says Dubai Pledge Is 'Giant Step,' Worst Over 
2009-12-14 17:08:33.945 GMT


    (Updates today's trading in final paragraph.)

By Michael Patterson
    Dec. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Dubai's pledge to adopt global
standards on transparency and creditor protection is a "giant
step in the right direction" and the worst of the emirate's
debt crisis is over, investor Mark Mobius said.
    "They said that going forward they wanted to become more
transparent and keep people fully informed," Mobius, who
oversees more than $30 billion as chairman of Templeton Asset
Management Ltd., said in a phone interview from Riyadh today.
"That is a very giant step in the right direction. By making
that statement, Dubai will be able to have a foremost position
here in the Middle East."
    The emirate said it's committed to "transparency, good
governance and market principles" in a statement today that
announced a new bankruptcy law and a $10 billion bailout of
state-owned company Dubai World. Dubai's benchmark equity index
surged the most in 14 months, while the $3.52 billion bond of
state-controlled Nakheel PJSC more than doubled to 109.5 cents
on the dollar after the statement.
    Prices for Nakheel's Islamic bond maturing today had
tumbled to as low as 42 cents after Dubai's Nov. 25 announcement
that Dubai World, the parent of Nakheel, would seek to delay
repayments. Investors' reaction was "blind panic" because of
uncertainty about the size of the restructuring and the
government's role, Abdulrahman Al Saleh, director general of
Dubai's Department of Finance, said on Dec. 10.

                     Dubai Transformation

    "In Dubai we are not good in publicizing what we are doing
as much as we are good in doing it," Al Saleh said during a
conference at the Dubai School of Government.
    Dubai World said on Dec. 1 it was in talks to restructure
less than half of its $59 billion of liabilities, spurring a
rally in global equities and a plunge in prices of credit-
default swaps that insure the debt of Dubai's government.
    "Some of these debts still have to be restructured," said
Mobius. "But the worst is over. To the degree that Dubai really
emphasizes transparency and good corporate governance, they can
really become a big leader, not only in the Middle East but
globally."
    Dubai, which borrowed about $80 billion in a four-year
construction boom to transform its economy into a regional
tourism and financial hub, suffered the world's steepest
property slump in the first global recession since World War II.

                     'Good Opportunities'

    Dubai World will use the bailout money from Abu Dhabi, the
wealthiest of the seven sheikdoms that comprise the United Arab
Emirates, to repay the Nakheel debt that comes due today. The
rest will cover Dubai World's interest and operating costs until
the company reaches a standstill agreement with its creditors,
Dubai's government said in the statement.
    Mobius said he's traveling to Dubai tomorrow to meet with
companies and that there are "very good opportunities" in the
emirate's stock market for long-term investors. Templeton owns
shares of Emaar Properties PJSC, the developer of the world's
tallest tower in Dubai, and DP World Ltd., the Middle East's
biggest port operator, Mobius said.
    Shares of Emaar and DP World jumped 15 percent today,
leading a 10 percent rally in the Dubai Financial Market General
Index. Abu Dhabi's ADX General Index added 7.9 percent for the
steepest rally since May 2006. The MSCI AC World Index of shares
in advanced and developing nations increased 0.7 percent at
11:58 a.m. in New York.

--With assistance from Camilla Hall and Arif Sharif in Dubai.
Editors: Gavin Serkin, Tim Farrand

To contact the reporters on this story:
Michael Patterson in London at +44-20-7073-3102 or
mpatterson10@bloomberg.net;

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Gavin Serkin at +44-20-7673-2467 or gserkin@bloomberg.net.

China output, exports improve as inflation returns - MarketWatch

China output, exports improve as inflation returns - MarketWatch

Posted using ShareThis

China output, exports improve as inflation returns - MarketWatch

China output, exports improve as inflation returns - MarketWatch

Posted using ShareThis

(BN) Obama Accepts Nobel, Says He Understands Cost of War

Obama Accepts Nobel, Says He Understands Cost of War (Update3)
2009-12-10 15:22:40.62 GMT


    (Adds Obama remarks on climate in 19th, 20th paragraphs.)

By Julianna Goldman
    Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama said he was
humbled to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize and used his
acceptance speech to defend the concept of a "just war" that
is necessary to further the cause of freedom and human rights.
    "Compared to some of the giants of history who have
received this prize -- Schweitzer and King; Marshall and Mandela
-- my accomplishments are slight," he said during the Nobel
ceremony in Oslo. "But perhaps the most profound issue
surrounding my receipt of this prize is the fact that I am the
commander-in-chief of a nation in the midst of two wars."
    Obama said he has an "acute sense" of the price of
military conflict at a time when he is deploying thousands of
troops into battle. "Some will kill. Some will be killed," he
said.
    The Nobel ceremony in Oslo comes a little more than a week
after the president announced deployment of 30,000 more U.S.
troops to Afghanistan. He also is winding down the U.S. military
commitment in Iraq even as terrorist violence continues.
    "I do not bring with me today a definitive solution to the
problems of war," Obama said. "We must begin by acknowledging
the hard truth that we will not eradicate violent conflict in
our lifetimes."
    While expressing appreciation for the non-violent creed
preached by Martin Luther King Jr. and Mahatma Gandhi, Obama
said that as U.S. leader he can't "be guided by their examples
alone."

                       Necessary Force

    "I face the world as it is, and cannot stand idle in the
face of threats to the American people," Obama said.
Negotiations didn't stop Adolf Hitler and won't stop al-Qaeda,
he said. "To say that force is sometimes necessary is not a
call to cynicism -- it is a recognition of history; the
imperfections of man and the limits of reason."
    There are times and events where the use of military force
is "not only necessary but morally justified," he said.
    Among recent conflicts, Obama cited the military
intervention in the Balkans, the first Gulf War to drive Iraqi
armed forces under Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait and the U.S.-led
overthrow of the Taliban in Afghanistan after the Sept. 11
attacks. He didn't mention the 2003 invasion of Iraq to topple
Hussein that was undertaken by his predecessor, former President
George W. Bush.
    When war is waged, it must be done under universal
standards of conduct, even when the enemy doesn't follow the
same code, Obama said.

                    Standards for Conflict

    "I, like any head of state, reserve the right to act
unilaterally if necessary to defend my nation," he said.
"Nevertheless, I am convinced that adhering to standards
strengthens those who do, and isolates -- and weakens -- those
who don't."
    Obama told his audience there are three ways to "build a
just and lasting peace." They include sanctions that "exact a
real price;" the promotion of human rights; diplomacy and
engagement; and economic security and opportunity.
    Security doesn't exist, he said, "where human beings do
not have access to enough food, or clean water, or the medicine
they need to survive. "The absence of hope can rot a society
from within."
    Obama also said the world must come together to confront
climate change.
   "There is little scientific dispute that if we do nothing,
we will face more drought, famine and mass displacement that
will fuel more conflict for decades," Obama said.

                     'Cooperative Climate'

    While Obama is the third sitting U.S. president to win the
prize, he's the first to win it so early in his term. Former
presidents Theodore Roosevelt won in 1906 and Woodrow Wilson won
in 1919. Former President Jimmy Carter won in 2002 and former
Vice President Al Gore received it in 2007, both after leaving
office.
    Thorbjoern Jagland, chairman of the five-member Nobel
committee, said the awarding of the Peace Prize this year "must
be viewed in the light of the prevailing situation in the world,
with great tension, numerous wars, unresolved conflicts and
confrontations on many fronts."
    Obama "has been trying to create a more cooperative
climate which can help reverse the present trend," Jagland said
in the text of his remarks at the ceremony. "It is now, today,
that we have the opportunity to support President Obama's ideas.
This year's prize is indeed a call for action to all of us."
    The president arrived in Oslo early today and went directly
to the Nobel Institute where he signed a guest book in a room
with walls covered with photographs of former laureates
including slain civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr.
    The president said he and first lady Michelle Obama were
touched by the wall of pictures.
    "When Dr. King won his prize, it had a galvanizing effect
around the world, but also lifted his stature in the United
States in a way that allowed him to be more effective," Obama
said.

For Related News and Information:
For TOP news TOP <GO>
For Nobel news NI NOBEL <GO>

--With assistance from Marianne Stigset in Oslo and Roger
Runningen in Washington. Editors: Joe Sobczyk, Brigitte
Greenberg.

To contact the reporter on this story:
Julianna Goldman in Washington at +1-202-654-4304 or
jgoldman6@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Jim Kirk at +1-202-654-4315 or
jkirk12@bloomberg.net;

--
-----

Bertrand Clausell Wanclik (GMAIL)
http://trendsniffer.blogspot.com
http://kuizine.blogspot.com
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/0/b55/631  
+55 11 9955-6390
__________________________________
Sent from São Paulo, Brasil
Ted Turner  - "Sports is like a war without the killing."

O vilão : Crude Oil

(BN) Gold Isn’t the Best Protection Against Inflation:

It's an option of diversification.

Brains, managing funds are a better inflation hedge...

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Gold Isn't the Best Protection Against Inflation: Matthew Lynn
2009-12-08 00:01:00.9 GMT


Commentary by Matthew Lynn
    Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Economic chaos? The dollar crumbling?
Central banks printing money like crazy? Probably the only real
surprise about the surge in gold prices over the last few months
is that it took so long to arrive.
    Last week gold touched an all-time high of $1,227.50. Back
in September it was still less than $1,000. Chalk that up as a
victory for the gold bugs.
    This week, the price is heading down, dropping below
$1,200. Chalk that up as a victory for the gold skeptics, who
regularly point out that the metal's value is just a sentimental
memory from a long-buried era.
    In reality, while investors are right to be nervous about
inflation, maybe they are catching on that it's wrong to see
gold as the best hedge against a general rise in prices. There
are plenty of alternatives: equities, property, oil, luxuries or
private-equity funds should prove just as effective a way of
shielding yourself.
    It isn't hard to figure out why investors had been getting
interested in gold again. Central banks are pumping freshly
minted money into the system. A few hundred years of economic
history says that eventually this will lead to inflation. It
might be next year, or the year after. It doesn't make much
difference -- it will arrive sooner or later, and you'll need to
get your portfolio in shape before it does.

                         Alloyed Record

    But gold? Whether it's a hedge against inflation depends on
where you want to start drawing the graph. Back in 2002, gold
was less than $300. If you bought it then, you'd certainly have
protected yourself against rising prices -- and made a fat
profit as well. The 1990s were a different story. Gold started
that decade at around $400, and ended it below $300. Not so
great. As for the 1980s, forget it: gold lost almost half its
value during that decade.
    In reality, gold has a mixed record. Nor should you be
surprised about that. A few industrial uses, and jewelry, aside,
gold is valuable only insofar as other investors think it is
valuable. By itself it isn't necessarily worth anything. Nor
does it generate interest or dividends. If the price doesn't
rise, you don't get anything.
    There isn't much chance, either, of the world's central
banks making their currencies convertible into gold once again.
They would bankrupt their governments in the process. It may
secure itself a greater role as a reserve asset. But the gold
standard isn't about to be re-imposed.
    In truth, while gold may have a role in protecting against
inflation, there are plenty of alternatives. Here are five you
should be thinking about -- particularly when you bear in mind
that gold is already close to an all-time high.

                      Real-Estate Rebound

    One, property. The price of real estate won't always move
exactly in line with inflation. And you might want to steer
clear of the markets where there has yet to be much of a retreat
from the exuberant prices of 2006 and 2007. Even so, if there is
more money chasing a static amount of land and buildings, prices
are going to rise.
    Two, oil. They used to call it black gold and maybe they
should again. It has already stopped being just stuff we put in
our cars, and use to heat houses, and become an investment asset
in itself. How else can we explain the fact that oil has ticked
up past $70 a barrel even while we're living through the worst
global recession since World War II? Oil is already, in effect,
an alternative to gold. The one difference is that you can put
it in your car and drive somewhere -- making it far more useful
than stuff good for little more than dental fillings and
trinkets to wear around your neck.

                         Stock Picking

    Three, equities. Moderate, persistent inflation in the 3
percent range is good for the kind of big, blue-chip companies
that dominate the major global stock markets. They can edge up
prices along with everyone else. And they can usually get away
with increasing wages just a bit less than inflation, so cutting
labor costs as well -- particularly as unions are far less
powerful than they used to be. In those circumstances, the
shareholders should do fine -- and their equities will more than
keep up with rising prices.
    Four, luxury goods and collectibles. Once inflation takes
off, it is only real assets that will hold their value --
everything else is just paper, and that will be of dwindling
use. Assets don't get much more real than historic art, valuable
antiques, vintage automobiles or fine wines. They should start
to soar in price as the mega-rich realize they are among the few
ways to protect wealth. And, heck, if you get it wrong, you can
always hang them on the wall, or drink them.
    Five, private-equity funds. This one might not be obvious.
But a leveraged buyout firm buys well-established companies, in
basic industries, and then loads them up with lots of debt,
while hanging on to a little bit of equity. Inflation will
effectively wipe out all that debt. The result? The equity that
is left over will be worth far more.

                         Rate Squeeze

    Of course, none of these will necessarily work in the long-
term. The only real way to control inflation once it gets
started is to raise interest rates high enough to create a deep
recession, and so choke off rising prices. That's what central
bankers did in the late 1970s and early 1980s, and may do again
sometime around 2015 or 2020. Once that happens, you'll need to
think again -- you might not want to be in property or equities.
    That, however, is some way off. As we move into the early
stages of an inflationary era, those five assets should do at
least as well as gold, if not better.

     (Matthew Lynn is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions
expressed are his own.)

    Click on "Send Comment" in the sidebar display to send a
letter to the editor.

For Related News and Information:
To read more columns by Matthew Lynn: NI LYNN <GO>
More commentaries: OPED <GO>
For top commodities news: CTOP <GO>
For news on gold: NI GLD <GO>

--Editors: James Greiff, Laurence Arnold.

To contact the writer of this column:
Matthew Lynn in London at +44-20-330-7171 or
matthewlynn@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this column:
James Greiff at +1-212-617-5801 or jgreiff@bloomberg.net

beira o espatafurdio

__________________________________
Sent from São Paulo, Brasil
Marie von Ebner-Eschenbach  - "Even a stopped clock is right twice a day."

Excelente

SPDJFUT : trending higher

Higher and higher

Euro channel

Sent from São Paulo, Brasil
Jonathan Swift  - "May you live every day of your life."

Crude dentro do seu canal de alta

           Crude dentro do seu canal de alta

__________________________________
Sent from São Paulo, Brasil
Marie von Ebner-Eschenbach  - "Even a stopped clock is right twice a day."

(BN) One Bad Twitter ‘Tweet’ Can Cost 30 Customers, Survey Shows

One Bad Twitter 'Tweet' Can Cost 30 Customers, Survey Shows
2009-11-26 00:00:01.2 GMT


By Sarah Shannon
    Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- A negative review or comment on the
Twitter, Facebook or Youtube Web sites can lose companies as
many as 30 customers, according to a survey by Convergys Corp.
    A customer review on one of the sites reaches an average
audience of 45 people, two-thirds of whom would avoid or
completely stop doing business with a company they heard bad
things about, Convergys said, citing its own survey.
    Web and video posts are feeding a new form of "silent
attrition, where customers switch companies without complaining
directly," Frank Sherlock, senior vice president at Cincinnati-
based Convergys, said at a conference in London yesterday.
    The provider of customer call-center services commissioned
a survey of 2,000 British consumers, one in three of whom said
they put their bad customer experiences on the Internet.
    The influence of a post on Youtube, the world's most
popular video-sharing site which is owned by Google Inc., can
have a "definitive measurable impact," Sherlock said.

For Related News and Information:
Top retail news: RTOP <GO>
More on social networking: NSE SOCIAL NETWORKING <GO>

--Editors: Paul Jarvis, Keith Campbell.

To contact the reporter on this story:
Sarah Shannon in London at +44-20-7073-3262 or
sshannon4@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Keith Campbell at +44-20-7073-3829 or k.campbell@bloomberg.net.

New gold bugs making gold investments mainstream

"The original gold bugs have been fans of the metal for decades. They yearn for the past, when the so-called Gold Standard was the central cog of the world's currency system. A similar system known as the Bretton Woods Agreement tied the U.S. dollar, and all currencies pegged to the dollar, to the price of gold. When the system broke down in 1971, there was no longer a limit on the amount of money that could be printed by governments.

Gold bugs hung on grimly as prices dropped in the '80s and '90s amid quelled inflation and roaring stock markets. But gold prices began climbing at the start of this decade, when the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to revive the U.S. economy in the wake of the dot-com bust.

That helped fuel a housing and credit market boom that came crashing down last year, triggering a global financial crisis and the worst recession since the Great Depression." 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-gold-bugs-taking-gold-mainstream-2009-11-23

LIFE IS A ROLLERCOASTER OF EMOTIONS AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOKS, ESPECIALLY REGARDING COMMODITIES........report from SocGen.

LIFE IS A ROLLERCOASTER OF EMOTIONS AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOKS, ESPECIALLY REGARDING COMMODITIES........
YESTERDAY, THE "LONG-TERM LOW INTEREST RATES SENARIO" POINTED TO COMMODITIES BEING AN 'ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENT' OPTION BUT JUST INCASE........

FROM today's edition of 'THE DAILY TELEGRAPH' - UK newspaper.
Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for potential 'global
collapse'
Société Générale has advised clients to be ready for a possible "global
economic collapse" over the next two years, mapping a strategy of defensive
investments to avoid wealth destruction.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Published: 6:12PM GMT 18 Nov 2009
Comments 44 | Comment on this article

(Embedded image moved to file: pic27027.jpg)A bullet train speeding past
Mount Fuji in Fuji city, west of Tokyo, Japan

Explosion of debt: Japan's public debt could reach as much as 270pc of GDP
in the next two years. A bullet train is pictured speeding past Mount Fuji
in Fuji city, west of Tokyo Photo: Reuters
In a report entitled "Worst-case debt scenario", the bank's asset team said
state rescue packages over the last year have merely transferred private
liabilities onto sagging sovereign shoulders, creating a fresh set of
problems.
Overall debt is still far too high in almost all rich economies as a share
of GDP (350pc in the US), whether public or private. It must be reduced by
the hard slog of "deleveraging", for years.

 Related Articles
'Debt levels risk another crisis'
"As yet, nobody can say with any certainty whether we have in fact escaped
the prospect of a global economic collapse," said the 68-page report,
headed by asset chief Daniel Fermon. It is an exploration of the dangers,
not a forecast.
Under the French bank's "Bear Case" scenario (the gloomiest of three
possible outcomes), the dollar would slide further and global equities
would retest the March lows. Property prices would tumble again. Oil would
fall back to $50 in 2010.
Governments have already shot their fiscal bolts. Even without fresh
spending, public debt would explode within two years to 105pc of GDP in the
UK, 125pc in the US and the eurozone, and 270pc in Japan. Worldwide state
debt would reach $45 trillion, up two-and-a-half times in a decade.
(UK figures look low because debt started from a low base. Mr Ferman said
the UK would converge with Europe at 130pc of GDP by 2015 under the bear
case).
The underlying debt burden is greater than it was after the Second World
War, when nominal levels looked similar. Ageing populations will make it
harder to erode debt through growth. "High public debt looks entirely
unsustainable in the long run. We have almost reached a point of no return
for government debt," it said.
Inflating debt away might be seen by some governments as a lesser of evils.
If so, gold would go "up, and up, and up" as the only safe haven from fiat
paper money. Private debt is also crippling. Even if the US savings rate
stabilises at 7pc, and all of it is used to pay down debt, it will still
take nine years for households to reduce debt/income ratios to the safe
levels of the 1980s.
The bank said the current crisis displays "compelling similarities" with
Japan during its Lost Decade (or two), with a big difference: Japan was
able to stay afloat by exporting into a robust global economy and by
letting the yen fall. It is not possible for half the world to pursue this
strategy at the same time.
SocGen advises bears to sell the dollar and to "short" cyclical equities
such as technology, auto, and travel to avoid being caught in the "inherent
deflationary spiral". Emerging markets would not be spared. Paradoxically,
they are more leveraged to the US growth than Wall Street itself. Farm
commodities would hold up well, led by sugar.
Mr Fermon said junk bonds would lose 31pc of their value in 2010 alone.
However, sovereign bonds would "generate turbo-charged returns" mimicking
the secular slide in yields seen in Japan as the slump ground on. At one
point Japan's 10-year yield dropped to 0.40pc. The Fed would hold down
yields by purchasing more bonds. The European Central Bank would do less,
for political reasons.
SocGen's case for buying sovereign bonds is controversial. A number of
funds doubt whether the Japan scenario will be repeated, not least because
Tokyo itself may be on the cusp of a debt compound crisis.
Mr Fermon said his report had electrified clients on both sides of the
Atlantic. "Everybody wants to know what the impact will be. A lot of hedge
funds and bankers are worried," he said.

Other reason that commodities are looking a better long-term alternative investment?

14:15 18Nov09 DJN-DJ FED'S BULLARD: POSSIBLE FED WON'T HIKE RATES UNTIL
2012
14:15 18Nov09 DJN-DJ FED'S BULLARD: MARKET FOCUS ON FED FUNDS RATE
'DISAPPOINTING'
14:15 18Nov09 DJN-DJ BULLARD: MARKETS SHOULD FOCUS ON ALL ASPECTS OF FED
STIMULUS
14:15 18Nov09 DJN-DJ BULLARD: FED MINDFUL OF KEEPING RATES TOO LOW FOR TOO
LONG
14:15 18Nov09 DJN-DJ BULLARD:FED LIQUIDITY PROGRAMS UNLIKELY TO BE
INFLATION SOURCE
14:15 18Nov09 DJN-DJ BULLARD: FED'S MAIN CHALLENGE IS MANAGING ASSET BUYING
EFFORTS
14:15 18Nov09 DJN-DJ BULLARD: ECONOMY AIDED BY STABILIZING INCOME, HOUSING
MARKET
14:15 18Nov09 DJN-DJ BULLARD: GLOBAL GROWTH AIDING US ECONOMIC RECOVERY
14:15 18Nov09 DJN-DJ BULLARD: INFLATION LOW, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER
14:15 18Nov09 DJN-DJ BULLARD: LABOR MARKET STILL WEAK, BUT LOSSES
MODERATING
14:15 18Nov09 DJN-DJ BULLARD: TOO-BIG-TO-FAIL ISSUES MUST BE ADDRESSED
14:15 18Nov09 DJN-DJ Fed's Bullard: Possible Fed Won't Hike Rates Until
2012

  By Michael S. Derby
  Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

   NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--If the Federal Reserve sticks to the pattern set
after
the last two recessions, interest rates will remain unchanged until 2012, a
Federal Reserve official said Wednesday.
   Assuming the recession ended this summer, Federal Reserve Bank of St.
Louis
President James Bullard said interest rate hikes could lie well into the
future,
assuming the central bank sticks to raising rates between two-and-a-half to
three
years after the end of a downturn, as it did for the past two recessions.
   But Bullard cautioned that pattern isn't set in stone, because central
bank
officials are mindful of the possible mistakes of keeping interest rates
too low
for too long, as many believe was the case in the middle years of this
decade.
   Bullard also said the market was missing the policy story, in a sense,
by
thinking so much about what the Fed does with the Fed funds rates. "The
market's
focus on interest rates is disappointing, given quantitative easing," he
said.
   It is instead the provision of liquidity the Fed has offered via its
emergency lending programs that is key. "The liquidity programs naturally
taper
off as the crisis recedes," and are thus "not an inflationary concern,"
Bullard
said.
   Still, "the main challenge for monetary policy going forward will be
how to
adjust the asset purchase program without generating inflation and still
providing support to the economy while interest rates are near zero,"
Bullard
said.
   The official's comments came from a press release and presentation
released
to the press in advance of a speech Commerce Bank Economic Breakfast, in
Clayton,
Missouri. The remarks will be expanded when he gives the formal speech.
   Bullard is not currently a voting member of the interest rate setting
Federal
Open Market Committee, but he will be in 2010. His speech comes at a time
where
financial markets have been intensely focused on how the Fed will start
unwinding
its current policy stance given that the recession appears to be over.
   Already, many of the Fed's emergency lending efforts are ending due to
a lack
of market demand, while its major asset purchase programs will be wound
down by
the first quarter of next year. But it's unclear what the Fed will do with
what
effectively is its zero percent interest rate stance.
   Financial markets have wondered if the Fed would move sometime next
year, but
recent addresses from central bankers seem to suggest the Fed may not raise
rates
for many months.
   Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke this week and said an environment of
modest
growth, weak labor markets and no threat of inflation mean the central bank
can
keep rates at rock bottom levels for some time. Most private sector
economists
don't believe the Fed will raise rates until after the middle of next year,
and
many see the Fed holding off on tightening until 2011.
   In his remarks, Bullard noted the recovery is being driven by a
stabilization
in personal income and housing, along with abating stress in financial
markets
and improving global growth. Labor markets are still problematic, although
it's
good job losses have moderated.
   Bullard described inflation as low, although the Fed's large balance
sheet
has created a medium term risk to prices. He flagged volatile commodity
prices as
an issue and added "inflation uncertainty remains elevated compared with
last
fall."
   The official also said the financial system's too-big-to-fail problem
must be
dealt with.
   -By Michael S. Derby; Dow Jones Newswires, 212-416-2214
  michael.derby@dowjones.com
-0-
By Michael S. Derby
  Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

and..........................

14:34 18Nov09 DJN-DJ Jim Rogers Says Commodities To Perform Regardless Of
Economy<N.N>


   LONDON (Dow Jones)--Commodities is the best major asset class to invest
in because it is most likely to make money irrespective of whether the
world economy improves or worsens, commodities-investing expert Jim Rogers
said Wednesday.
   "For the most part, the only major asset class where the fundamentals
continue to improve and where one can probably make a lot of money whether
the economy gets better or gets worse would be commodities," Rogers said in
a conference call hosted by ETF Securities.
   "That's the best place to be and with my money, that and a few
currencies, are the places that I have been investing going forward because
I don't see any other asset class [worth investing in]."
   He said investors should sell out of bonds because governments are
likely to issue more debt in the future and inflation will rise. The stock
market may also be an unattractive asset class because its has been known
to remain rangebound for long periods of time, he said.
   Commodities, on the other hand, will perform well regardless of what
happens to the economy.
   "If the world economy gets better, commodities will be a very good
place to be if not the best place because the [supply] shortages continue
to get worse. If the world economy does not get better, commodities are
still going to be a good place to be because governments have printed so
much money and are continuing to print so much money," he said.

    -By Alex MacDonald, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)20 7842 9328;
alex.macdonald@dowjones.com

   (END) Dow Jones Newswires

Ibov intraday

IBOV VBAR

IBOV FUTURO la uera de la verdá - Sex 13/11/09

Pontos do ibov fut hj 

C 65346

V 64415

1001-discos-para-ouvir-antes-de-morrer

 http://nobrasil.org/1001-discos-para-ouvir-antes-de-morrer/ 

ITSA3 - VEJO 20% UPSIDE ATÉ JANEIRO (3m fwd)

50% retrac CRUDE OIL: I LOVE YOU

continuo semanal 10 anos....vai vendÊ, vai!!!

Real do Brasil R$ - BRL - de baixo para cima

Neste grafico podemos observar o real se valorizando....porque uma moeda como a nossa, num pais com grau de investimento, materias primas fartas, terra, gente boa, tecnologia se desenvolve, numero de analfabetos diminui, desenvolvimento percebe-se por todos os cantos.

Nossa moeda tem que valer tão menos do que o dolar?

Alguem sabe o que significa PAR entre moedas? Até 2016 provavelmente testaremos PAR.

Anotem,

B

__________________________________
Sent from São Paulo, Brasil
Marie von Ebner-Eschenbach  - "Even a stopped clock is right twice a day."

(BN) Gold at $2,000 Becomes Inflation-Adjusted Bullseye for

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: BERTRAND WANCLIK, <b.wanclik@bloomberg.net>
Date: 2009/10/19
Subject: (BN) Gold at $2,000 Becomes Inflation-Adjusted Bullseye for
To: bertrand.wanclik@gmail.com




+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Gold at $2,000 Becomes Inflation-Adjusted Bullseye for '80 High
2009-10-18 23:31:09.327 GMT


By Pham-Duy Nguyen
    Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Gold's rally to a record means
prices are still 53 percent below the 1980 inflation-adjusted
peak.
    While gold rose 19 percent this year to $1,072 an ounce on
Oct. 14, consumer prices almost tripled in the past three
decades, eroding the metal's value. Bullion hasn't kept pace
with the cost of bread, fuel or medical care. In 1980, gold hit
a then-record $873 an ounce. In today's dollars, that would be
$2,287, according to the U.S. Labor Department's inflation
calculator.
    Record government debt and interest rates close to zero
percent are pushing gold higher for a ninth straight year, and
options show investors expect the rally to continue. When prices
reached all-time highs, the contract with the most open interest
was the December call to buy the metal at $1,200. The contract
to purchase at $1,500 an ounce was the third biggest.
    "Gold is not at any peak," said Martin Murenbeeld, the
chief economist at Toronto-based DundeeWealth Inc., which
manages $58.5 billion in mutual funds and brokerage accounts.
"The world's money supply has increased and gold hasn't kept
pace," he said. "We're now in a period where gold is catching
up."
    The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the currency against
those of six major trading partners, fell on Oct. 15 to the
lowest level in 14 months, and has dropped about 7 percent this
year. President Barack Obama has increased the nation's
marketable debt 22 percent to $7.01 trillion to revive growth.

                       Preserving Value

    Gold bulls say today's record borrowing and low interest
rates mean the government will have to accept faster inflation
as the economy recovers. Investors buy bullion to preserve value
during times of turmoil and economic stress.
    Financial institutions worldwide have reported credit
losses and writedowns of about $1.62 trillion since the start of
2007, when the credit crisis began. Group of 20 governments have
pledged about $11.9 trillion to ease credit and revive economic
growth, according to the International Monetary Fund.
    "Gold is the hedge against currency devaluation," John
Brynjolfsson, of hedge fund Armored Wolf LLC, said in a
Bloomberg Television interview from Aliso Viejo, California, on
Oct. 7. He predicted bullion will top $2,000.
    Banks have raised their gold estimates. On Oct. 9, JPMorgan
Chase & Co. said the metal will average $1,006 an ounce next
year, compared with an earlier projection of $950. Deutsche Bank
AG forecast an average of $1,150, up 32 percent from its
estimate in July. Barclays Capital said Oct. 12 that "prospects
for a run at $1,500 should not be underestimated" next year.

                        Understated CPI

    Gold would need to rise more than sixfold to top the 1980
record, using a more accurate inflation-adjustment, said John
Williams, an economist and the editor of Berkeley, California-
based Shadowstats.com. He said the government has understated
the cost of living over the past two decades with adjustments in
the way it measures the basket of goods and services monitored
by the U.S. consumer price index, or CPI.
    Gold futures for December delivery closed Oct. 16 at
$1,051.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange's Comex
division, gaining for a third straight week.
    "If the methodologies of measuring inflation in 1980 had
been kept intact, gold would have to hit $7,150 to be the
equivalent of the 1980 record," Williams said.
    The cost of living in the U.S. rose 0.2 percent last month,
the Labor Department said on Oct. 16. Compared with a year
earlier, consumer prices fell 1.3 percent. The CPI will drop 0.5
percent this year, before rising 1.9 percent in 2010, reflected
by the median estimates of 61 economists in a Bloomberg survey.
Annual increases averaged 2.8 percent a year in the past decade.

                  Purchasing-Power Adjustment

    In March 1980, inflation surged to a 14.8 percent annual
rate, two months after gold capped a four-year rally. Adjusted
for the decline in the dollar's purchasing power since then,
gold's Oct. 14 record of $1,072 represents the equivalent of
$409 in 1980 dollars, the Labor Department calculator shows.
    Since January 1980, the average price of a pound of white
bread has risen almost threefold, from about 50 cents to $1.38
in August, and medical care has surged more than fivefold, Labor
Department figures show. Gasoline and electricity prices have
more than doubled.
    Today, the gap between gold's spot price and its CPI-
adjusted equivalent is the widest ever.
    Gold hasn't been as effective a hedge against inflation as
oil since the 1980s, said Matt Zeman, of LaSalle Futures Group
LLC in Chicago.

                         Oil Beats Gold

    Crude passed its 1981 inflation-adjusted record two years
ago. The cost of imported oil averaged $39 a barrel in February
1981, after Iran cut exports, according to the Energy
Department. That's $89 in 2007 dollars, the Labor Department
calculator shows. Oil reached a record $147.27 on July 11, 2008,
and closed at $78.53 on Oct. 16 in New York trading.
    "If you bought gold in the 1980s, you're still losing
money today," said Zeman, a metals trader. Gold prices in New
York languished for two decades after declining from the 1980
record, dropping to a 20-year low of $253.20 on July 20, 1999.
    While bulls say gold is cheap, the inflation-adjusted price
is 15 percent above its 30-year average, Bloomberg data show.
    The Federal Reserve may limit gains by raising interest
rates before inflation balloons, analysts said. Fed Chairman Ben
S. Bernanke said on Oct. 8 that policy makers will need to raise
interest rates "at some point" to control inflation.

                     'Prepared to Tighten'

    "When the economic outlook has improved sufficiently, we
will be prepared to tighten," Bernanke said in remarks prepared
for an Oct. 8 conference in Washington.
    Fed moves to cool inflation and the government's revenue
needs will stop gold, according to Jon Nadler, a senior analyst
for Montreal metals dealer and refiner Kitco Inc.
    "These wild calls for several-thousand-dollar gold are
typical of times when gold goes into uncharted territory,"
Nadler said. "The Fed will pull the interest-rate trigger and
the Obama administration will, in addition, pull the tax-hike
trigger before we get into any serious inflation. Once the man
on the street gets in, the gold rally is likely over."
    Gold held in exchange-traded funds climbed to records this
month at Zuercher Kantonalbank and ETF Securities Ltd. Holdings
in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed
by bullion, are up 42 percent this year. Hedge funds and other
large speculators hold their most-bullish position ever in gold
futures. So-called net-long positions, or bets prices will rise,
increased by 6 percent to 253,955 contracts in the week ended
Oct. 13, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

                         Gold Producers

    The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold & Silver Index jumped
43 percent this year, as Phoenix-based Freeport-McMoRan Copper &
Gold Inc. tripled. Toronto-based Barrick Gold Corp., the world's
largest producer, fell 10 percent. Barrick said Sept. 8 it will
record $5.6 billion in third-quarter costs to eliminate fixed-
price contracts as the company bets gold's value will climb.
    At Jersey, Channel Islands-based GoldMoney.com, which held
$759 million of gold and silver for investors as of Sept. 30,
founder James Turk said bullion can climb eightfold based on the
historical relationship between the metal and the Dow Jones
Industrial Average. The Dow is up 10-fold since January 1980.
    Gold and the Dow, which has gained 14 percent this year to
9,995.91, were at about the same level during the Great
Depression and the early 1980s, he said. On Jan. 21, 1980, as
gold futures surged to $873, the Dow slipped to 946.25.
    "The dollar is constantly being debased and inflated,"
Turk said. "By 2013, gold is going to be at $8,000 and the Dow
will be at 8,000."

                       Gold-Dollar Link

    Deutsche Bank said early this month that the dollar will
fall to $1.60 per euro next year, a drop of 7.3 percent from
last week, because of "rising fiscal deficits and loose
monetary policy."
    Gold has moved in the opposite direction of the dollar over
most of the past decade. The metal's correlation coefficient to
the U.S. Dollar Index is minus 0.8539, Bloomberg data show. A
correlation of minus 1 indicates two assets move inversely to
each other, while a 1 would show they move in tandem. A reading
of zero shows no correlation.
    Philip Gotthelf, the president of Equidex Brokerage Group
Inc. in Closter, New Jersey, says he expects gold to trade at
$1,250 by year-end.
    "Gold has been pushing higher because it's no longer just
a hedge against commodity inflation, it's also a hedge against a
change in world-monetary standards."

For Related News and Information:
Top commodity reports: CTOP <GO>
Top metal and mining stories: METT <GO>
Top currency news: TOP FRX <GO>
Commodity price forecasts: CPF <GO>
Global commodity indexes: GCIN <GO>
Metals, mining data, prices: MINE <GO>
Economic statistics: ECST <GO>
Analysts ratings-commodities: NI ANACMD <GO>

--With assistance from Terry Barrett in Washington, Millie
Munshi, Thomas R. Keene, Halia Pavliva, Mark Shenk and Margaret
Brennan in New York and Nicholas Larkin in London. Editors:
Steve Stroth, Ted Bunker.

To contact the reporter on this story:
Pham-Duy Nguyen in Seattle at +1-206-913-4545 or
pnguyen@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Steve Stroth at +1-312-443-5931 or
sstroth@bloomberg.net.

-----

Bertrand Clausell Wanclik (GMAIL)
http://trendsniffer.blogspot.com
http://kuizine.blogspot.com
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/0/b55/631  
+55 11 9955-6390
__________________________________

Joan Crawford  - "I, Joan Crawford, I believe in the dollar. Everything I earn, I spend."

Sugar Refined - CEPEA cristal em dolar por tonelada premios mudam de patamar

otimo pra NY

Açucar refinado vs CCI desde 2000 mensal

TRENDING : CCI uhuuuuuuuu!!!!!

CCI - a hora da verdade

Breve em seu cinema mais proximo

BRL monthly saying bye-bye to 2 / 1 brl

Rumo ao 1.50

Ibov em Dolares, Euros e Reais

Monthly Ibovespa charts

(BN) Brazil Rating Raised to Investment Grade by Moody’s

BOOM BOOM BOOM 

Brazil Rating Raised to Investment Grade by Moody's (Update3)
2009-09-22 21:42:09.184 GMT


    (Adds Mantega in eighth, ninth paragraphs.)

By Helder Marinho and Catarina Saraiva
    Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's credit rating was raised
to investment grade by Moody's Investors Service after Latin
America's largest economy built record foreign reserves and
averted a prolonged recession amid the global financial crisis.
    Moody's cited Brazil's "strong economic and financial
resilience" during the worldwide slowdown as it raised the
rating one level to Baa3, the lowest investment grade. The
upgrade came a year after Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings
increased their ratings for Brazil above junk. Moody's assigned
a positive outlook, signaling it may lift the rating again.
    Brazil's Bovespa stock index rose to a 14-month high and
the currency jumped the most in a month. The country's foreign
reserves climbed to $223 billion from a low during the crisis of
$199 billion on Feb. 26 as prices for its commodity exports
rebounded and investors poured money into the stock and bond
markets, encouraged by President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's
stimulus measures. Reserves were $74 billion three years ago.
   "The world is pulling out of the crisis and the country
came through it displaying a strong resilience," said Roberto
Padovani, chief strategist at Banco WestLB do Brasil in Sao
Paulo. The upgrade "consolidates a scenario of low risk for
Brazil and it comes at a very important moment," he said.

                           Real Gains

    Brazil's currency is up 29 percent against the dollar this
year, the second-best performance among the 16 major currencies
after the South African rand. Gross domestic product will shrink
0.4 percent this year, compared with a 7 percent contraction in
Mexico, according to the median forecasts in Bloomberg economist
surveys.
    Brazil's ability to pull through the global financial
crisis "points to a material improvement in Brazil's sovereign
credit profile," Mauro Leos, Moody's regional credit officer
for Latin America, said in a statement.
   Moody's "was waiting to see how Brazil was going to come
out from this crisis, whether the crisis was going to be more
profound and in the end it wasn't," said Pablo Goldberg, head
of Latin American fixed-income strategy at HSBC Securities in
New York. "The data shows that Brazil has turned the corner."
    Finance Minister Guido Mantega, speaking to reporters
outside of the Moody's office in New York today, said it was
"much more significant" that the rating company took the
action one year after credit markets seized up than if it had
upgraded while the global economy was growing.
    The decision "is a recognition of the efficiency with
which" Brazil's economy is being managed, Mantega said. With
three investment grade ratings, Brazil will be able to attract
more pension fund money to its bond market, he said.
    Brazil is the second country in South America after Chile
to have an investment grade rating from Moody's.

                         Stocks Rebound

    The benchmark Bovespa stock index has advanced 64 percent
this year, reversing last year's record 41 percent tumble, as
the central bank cut the benchmark lending rate to a record low
of 8.75 percent to shore up the economy.
    The extra yield investors demand to own Brazil's dollar-
denominated bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries has narrowed to
2.20 percentage points from 4.65 percentage points on Jan. 15,
according to JPMorgan Chase Co.
    The Bovespa index gained 0.9 percent today to 61,484.89,
the highest since July 2008. The real climbed as much as 1.9
percent to 1.791 per dollar, the strongest in a year. Brazilian
bond yields slid for the first time in six days.

--With assistance from Fabiola Moura in New York. Editors: David
Papadopoulos, Laura Zelenko

For Related News and Information:
Top Stories:TOP<GO>
Top Latin America stories: TOPL<GO>
Top emerging-market stories: <TOP EM<GO>}

To contact the reporter on this story:
Catarina Saraiva in New York at +1-212-617-2300 or
asaraiva5@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
David Papadopoulos at +1-212-617-5105 or
papadopoulos@bloomberg.net

Re: euro au plus haut

vai passar de 1.60 contra o dolar

acho que o real nos prox 18 meses atinge 1.25 usd ou 2 reais contra o Eur

pode anotar

2009/9/16 wanclik tade <wanclikt@yahoo.fr>

http://fr.biz.yahoo.com/16092009/290/l-euro-un-plus-haut-de-neuf-mois-face-au.html

 

Veuillez agréer l'expression de mes salutations distinguées.

Best regards

Commodities

confirmando trend de alta

CCI INDEX mensal porrando

CCI apontando pra cima novamente.....adoro essas commodities....carne puxando nos eua....e ethanol tb...

nos eua e no mundo , vamos lembrar...

cambio cede blw 1.80 ... rumo 1.25....

(BN) Mobius Spurns Brazil Share Offers as Gol Seeks Sale:

Mobius Spurns Brazil Share Offers as Gol Seeks Sale: Week Ahead
2009-09-08 03:00:01.3 GMT


By Telma Marotto and Francisco Marcelino

    Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Brazilian companies lining up to sell stock after this year's 51 percent surge in the Bovespa index are offering "low quality," overpriced shares, said Templeton Asset Management Ltd.'s Mark Mobius.
    At least 11 companies filed to sell equity in Brazil since July 31, including Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes SA, the nation's second-biggest airline, and Rossi Residencial SA, the sixth-largest homebuilder by assets. Only one company, the iron ore producer now known as Vale SA, sold stock in the second half
of 2008 before an eight-month drought in offerings.
    "The new share sales that are coming out in Brazil are of relatively low quality and priced far above fair value,"
Mobius, who oversees about $25 billion as Templeton's executive chairman, wrote Sept. 2 in an e-mail response to questions. "We are not planning to buy any of the pending offerings we have seen thus far but it all depends on the final pricing."
    Brazilian companies are returning to the market as stocks rally on prospects record-low interest rates and rising prices for the country's commodity exports will fuel growth in Latin America's largest economy. The national statistics agency, known as IBGE, will say on Sept. 11 that gross domestic product grew
between April and June for the first time in three quarters, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
    The Bovespa's gain sent the valuation for the benchmark index last month to 24 times the reported earnings of its companies, the highest in at least five years. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fetches 19.3 times profit.    "I can't see right now anything that makes me think valuations will go up more than this," said Carlos Camacho, who helps manage about 3 billion reais ($1.6 billion) at GAP Asset Management in Rio de Janeiro.

                         Pending IPOs

    Share sales pending in Sao Paulo include initial public offerings of Rio-based Cetip SA - Balcao Organizado de Ativos &Derivativos, Brazil's biggest clearing house; Tivit Terceirizacao de Tecnologia e Servicos SA, a Sao Paulo-based
computer-services company; and Direcional Engenharia SA, a homebuilder based in Belo Horizonte. They follow Cia. Brasileira de Meios de Pagamento, the processor of Visa Inc. payments known as VisaNet, which raised 8.4 billion reais in a June IPO that set a record in Brazil.
    Cetip, Tivit and Direcional declined to comment on their sales because of the so-called quiet period before the offering, according to spokeswomen for the companies.
    Barueri-based VisaNet's initial share sale was the first in a year. There were only four new listings in 2008 as the global financial crisis deepened, compared with a record 64 in 2007. Almost 80 percent of the IPOs in Brazil since the beginning of 2006 trade below their offering price, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg.

                           'Cautious'

    "In the past, the way to do well from deals in Brazil was to be very demanding in valuation and very skeptical and only participating in a few deals," said Urban Larson, a Latin America portfolio manager at F&C Management Ltd. in London, who oversees about $450 million in shares. "There's some very good companies that have gone public in Brazil in the last few years and it's possible to do quite well, but it's also a good idea to be cautious in looking at these deals."
    Alberto Kiraly, a vice president for the National Investment Bank Association in Sao Paulo, said companies selling shares now will benefit from the country's economic rebound.
    "All these companies should appreciate as they are closely linked to local demand," Kiraly said. "And the economic prospects suggest higher consumption and more credit available for purchases."

                        Economic Growth

    Brazil's GDP grew 1.7 percent in the second quarter from the previous period, according to the median estimate of 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. It will shrink 0.3 percent in 2009 before expanding 4 percent next year, a central bank survey of 100 economists published Aug. 31 showed. That's more than economists' 2010 growth forecasts for Chile, Mexico and
Argentina, according to Bloomberg data.
    "People selling those shares see an opportunity to obtain a high price at this time when sentiment is bullish," Mobius, 73, wrote in the e-mail. The Singapore-based investor, voted among the "Top Ten Money Managers of the 20th Century" by the Carson Group, said in July that Brazil is his top pick among
emerging-market countries after China. He declined to comment on
specific companies offering shares.
    Companies selling stock "offer good opportunities for investors who want to be exposed to Brazilian local economy," said Guilherme Figueiredo, who helps oversee 1.7 billion reais as director at M Safra & Co. in Sao Paulo. "That said, I still think that the market is very sensitive and investors will look carefully into each company to assess valuation, earnings."

                           Rossi, Gol

    Rossi, up 217 percent this year, is trading 52 percent below the 25 reais price at which it sold shares in February 2006. The Sao Paulo-based company said Sept. 1 it plans to sell up to 600 million reais of common stock. Three analysts rate Rossi a "buy," six rate it "hold" and two recommend selling the shares, according to Bloomberg data.
    Gol, which said on Aug. 25 it is seeking to raise up to 650 million reais in a share sale, is down 32 percent since selling shares for 26.57 reais in a June 2004 initial offering. It has three analyst "buy" ratings, two "holds" and two "sells."
    Sao Paulo-based Gol and Rossi said in e-mailed statements that they can't comment on the share sales, citing the quiet period.
    "There's been a housing boom, an airline boom, an everything boom in Brazil since 2006 and here they are raising money below what they raised in the past," said Christopher Palmer, who oversees about $5 billion as Gartmore Investment Management Ltd.'s London-based head of global emerging markets. "How would you feel if you were one of those investors who
invested in 2006?"

                            Markets

    The Bovespa index fell 1.8 percent to 56,652.28 last week, led by Banco Nossa Caixa SA, which dropped 8.9 percent. MMX Mineracao e Metalicos SA gained the most in the measure,advancing 5.5 percent.
    The yield on the local-currency zero-coupon bonds due January 2011 fell three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 9.8 percent in the week. The real gained 2 percent to 1.8442 per U.S. dollar from 1.8812 on Aug. 28.

The following is a list of events in Brazil this week:

*T
Event                                                  Date
FGV CPI IPC-S Inflation Index - Weekly                 Sep 8
Weekly Trade Balance                                   Sep 8
FIPE Consumer Price Index - Weekly                     Sep 9
FGV IGP-DI Inflation Index - August                    Sep 9
CNI Capacity Utilization - July                        Sep 9
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes                        Sep 10
IBGE Inflation Index IPCA - August                     Sep 10
FGV Preview Inflation IGP-M - Sep. 10                  Sep 11
Gross Domestic Product - 2nd Quarter                   Sep 11
*T

--Editors: Kara Wetzel, David Papadopoulos

To contact the reporter on this story:
Telma Marotto in Sao Paulo at +55-11-3048-4640 or
tmarotto1@bloomberg.net;
Francisco Marcelino in Sao Paulo at +55-11-3048-4643 or
mdeoliveira@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
David Papadopoulos in New York at +1-212-617-5105 or
papadopoulos@bloomberg.net

Re: LES PRESIDENTS DE LA REPUBLIQUE DE LA FRANCE ET DU BRESIL

http://delicious.com/bwanclik

2009/9/9 Bertrand Wanclik <bertrand.wanclik@gmail.com>

Publié le 07-09-09 à 16:53     Allocution de M. le Président de la République devant la communauté française   Résidence de France à Brasilia – Lundi 7 septembre 2009 Mesdames et Messieurs, Je voudrais vous dire le bonheur qui est le mien d'être au Brésil pour la deuxième fois cette année, accompagné d'une très importante délégation, j'y reviendrai, de ministres, de chefs d'entreprises. Vous avez choisi le Brésil et il se trouve que moi aussi, parce que je suis persuadé que le Brésil est un partenaire incontournable pour la France. C'est un géant qui doit jouer un plus grand rôle dans les équilibres du monde. C'est un peuple fier qui doit être davantage considéré à la mesure de ce qu'il apporte à l'économie, à la stabilité du monde, à la culture. C'est un géant démographique. C'est un géant en superficie et politiquement, c'est un partenaire indispensable pour la France. Nous avons décidé depuis 2 ans et demi avec le Président Lula de signer un partenariat stratégique qui ne soit pas simplement, comme si souvent, une addition de mots mais témoigne chaque jour d'une réalité. Mes chers compatriotes du Brésil, Il faut bien que vous compreniez que désormais, sur la scène mondiale, la France et le Brésil harmonisent tous leurs choix politiques. Je suis convaincu que l'organisation du monde d'aujourd'hui est obsolète, qu'elle est injuste, qu'il n'est pas raisonnable de vouloir régler les affaires du monde sans tenir compte d'un continent comme l'Amérique latine, d'un continent comme l'Afrique ou d'un pays continent comme l'Inde. La France réclame pour le Brésil une place de membre permanent du Conseil de sécurité. Il faut que nous obtenions la réforme de la gouvernance mondiale, et que nos amis brésiliens comprennent que le jour où ils auront toute leur place, tous leurs droits, ils devront assumer tous leurs devoirs, les devoirs d'une grande puissance. Il ne faut pas s'étonner que ceux que l'on appelle les pays émergents n'aient pas toujours la volonté d'assumer leur responsabilité à partir du moment où ils ont le sentiment, jour après jour, de ne pas être considérés à la juste proportion de ce qu'ils représentent sur le théâtre du monde. C'est quelque chose auquel je crois profondément, je le dis pour le Brésil, je le pense pour l'Inde, je le pense pour un pays comme l'Afrique du Sud, bien sûr la Chine qui a des demandes permanentes, mais je refuse une organisation qui laisserait à penser que les grands dossiers du monde puissent se régler dans un dialogue avec les 8 du G8, ignorant tous ces pays du XXIe siècle. La France a été trop absente et lorsque l'on a été présent, c'était sympathique, on donnait toujours beaucoup d'affection mais parfois on décevait en ne tenant pas nos engagements. C'est très important pour moi cette quatrième rencontre bilatérale avec le Président Lula depuis le début de l'année, le deuxième voyage, parce que nous avons besoin des Brésiliens et les Brésiliens savent qu'ils peuvent [...]   TÉLÉCHARGER

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Bertrand Clausell Wanclik (GMAIL)
http://trendsniffer.blogspot.com
http://kuizine.blogspot.com
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/0/b55/631  
+55 11 9955-6390
__________________________________
Sent from São Paulo, Brasil
Ted Turner  - "Sports is like a war without the killing."

Re: LES PRESIDENTS DE LA REPUBLIQUE DE LA FRANCE ET DU BRESIL

Abre uma conta e cria sua nuvem de ideias no delicious....depois vc pode linkar ao seu blog como eu fiz.....beijos

http://delicious.com/

2009/9/9 Bertrand Wanclik <bertrand.wanclik@gmail.com>

Publié le 07-09-09 à 16:53     Allocution de M. le Président de la République devant la communauté française   Résidence de France à Brasilia – Lundi 7 septembre 2009 Mesdames et Messieurs, Je voudrais vous dire le bonheur qui est le mien d'être au Brésil pour la deuxième fois cette année, accompagné d'une très importante délégation, j'y reviendrai, de ministres, de chefs d'entreprises. Vous avez choisi le Brésil et il se trouve que moi aussi, parce que je suis persuadé que le Brésil est un partenaire incontournable pour la France. C'est un géant qui doit jouer un plus grand rôle dans les équilibres du monde. C'est un peuple fier qui doit être davantage considéré à la mesure de ce qu'il apporte à l'économie, à la stabilité du monde, à la culture. C'est un géant démographique. C'est un géant en superficie et politiquement, c'est un partenaire indispensable pour la France. Nous avons décidé depuis 2 ans et demi avec le Président Lula de signer un partenariat stratégique qui ne soit pas simplement, comme si souvent, une addition de mots mais témoigne chaque jour d'une réalité. Mes chers compatriotes du Brésil, Il faut bien que vous compreniez que désormais, sur la scène mondiale, la France et le Brésil harmonisent tous leurs choix politiques. Je suis convaincu que l'organisation du monde d'aujourd'hui est obsolète, qu'elle est injuste, qu'il n'est pas raisonnable de vouloir régler les affaires du monde sans tenir compte d'un continent comme l'Amérique latine, d'un continent comme l'Afrique ou d'un pays continent comme l'Inde. La France réclame pour le Brésil une place de membre permanent du Conseil de sécurité. Il faut que nous obtenions la réforme de la gouvernance mondiale, et que nos amis brésiliens comprennent que le jour où ils auront toute leur place, tous leurs droits, ils devront assumer tous leurs devoirs, les devoirs d'une grande puissance. Il ne faut pas s'étonner que ceux que l'on appelle les pays émergents n'aient pas toujours la volonté d'assumer leur responsabilité à partir du moment où ils ont le sentiment, jour après jour, de ne pas être considérés à la juste proportion de ce qu'ils représentent sur le théâtre du monde. C'est quelque chose auquel je crois profondément, je le dis pour le Brésil, je le pense pour l'Inde, je le pense pour un pays comme l'Afrique du Sud, bien sûr la Chine qui a des demandes permanentes, mais je refuse une organisation qui laisserait à penser que les grands dossiers du monde puissent se régler dans un dialogue avec les 8 du G8, ignorant tous ces pays du XXIe siècle. La France a été trop absente et lorsque l'on a été présent, c'était sympathique, on donnait toujours beaucoup d'affection mais parfois on décevait en ne tenant pas nos engagements. C'est très important pour moi cette quatrième rencontre bilatérale avec le Président Lula depuis le début de l'année, le deuxième voyage, parce que nous avons besoin des Brésiliens et les Brésiliens savent qu'ils peuvent [...]   TÉLÉCHARGER

--
-----

Bertrand Clausell Wanclik (GMAIL)
http://trendsniffer.blogspot.com
http://kuizine.blogspot.com
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/0/b55/631  
+55 11 9955-6390
__________________________________
Sent from São Paulo, Brasil
Charles de Gaulle  - "The better I get to know men, the more I find myself loving dogs."

LES PRESIDENTS DE LA REPUBLIQUE DE LA FRANCE ET DU BRESIL

Publié le 07-09-09 à 16:53     Allocution de M. le Président de la République devant la communauté française   Résidence de France à Brasilia – Lundi 7 septembre 2009 Mesdames et Messieurs, Je voudrais vous dire le bonheur qui est le mien d'être au Brésil pour la deuxième fois cette année, accompagné d'une très importante délégation, j'y reviendrai, de ministres, de chefs d'entreprises. Vous avez choisi le Brésil et il se trouve que moi aussi, parce que je suis persuadé que le Brésil est un partenaire incontournable pour la France. C'est un géant qui doit jouer un plus grand rôle dans les équilibres du monde. C'est un peuple fier qui doit être davantage considéré à la mesure de ce qu'il apporte à l'économie, à la stabilité du monde, à la culture. C'est un géant démographique. C'est un géant en superficie et politiquement, c'est un partenaire indispensable pour la France. Nous avons décidé depuis 2 ans et demi avec le Président Lula de signer un partenariat stratégique qui ne soit pas simplement, comme si souvent, une addition de mots mais témoigne chaque jour d'une réalité. Mes chers compatriotes du Brésil, Il faut bien que vous compreniez que désormais, sur la scène mondiale, la France et le Brésil harmonisent tous leurs choix politiques. Je suis convaincu que l'organisation du monde d'aujourd'hui est obsolète, qu'elle est injuste, qu'il n'est pas raisonnable de vouloir régler les affaires du monde sans tenir compte d'un continent comme l'Amérique latine, d'un continent comme l'Afrique ou d'un pays continent comme l'Inde. La France réclame pour le Brésil une place de membre permanent du Conseil de sécurité. Il faut que nous obtenions la réforme de la gouvernance mondiale, et que nos amis brésiliens comprennent que le jour où ils auront toute leur place, tous leurs droits, ils devront assumer tous leurs devoirs, les devoirs d'une grande puissance. Il ne faut pas s'étonner que ceux que l'on appelle les pays émergents n'aient pas toujours la volonté d'assumer leur responsabilité à partir du moment où ils ont le sentiment, jour après jour, de ne pas être considérés à la juste proportion de ce qu'ils représentent sur le théâtre du monde. C'est quelque chose auquel je crois profondément, je le dis pour le Brésil, je le pense pour l'Inde, je le pense pour un pays comme l'Afrique du Sud, bien sûr la Chine qui a des demandes permanentes, mais je refuse une organisation qui laisserait à penser que les grands dossiers du monde puissent se régler dans un dialogue avec les 8 du G8, ignorant tous ces pays du XXIe siècle. La France a été trop absente et lorsque l'on a été présent, c'était sympathique, on donnait toujours beaucoup d'affection mais parfois on décevait en ne tenant pas nos engagements. C'est très important pour moi cette quatrième rencontre bilatérale avec le Président Lula depuis le début de l'année, le deuxième voyage, parce que nous avons besoin des Brésiliens et les Brésiliens savent qu'ils peuvent [...]   TÉLÉCHARGER

(BN) China Growing 9.5% Evident as New Vehicle Sales Soar

China Growing 9.5% Evident as New Vehicle Sales Soar (Update1)
2009-09-09 05:10:06.636 GMT


    (Updates stock market in fifth paragraph.)

By Bloomberg News
    Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Look no further than Alcoa Inc. and
General Motors Co. for evidence that the Chinese economy is
poised to accelerate even after a slump in lending growth
dragged down the nation's stock market.
    Alcoa, the largest U.S. aluminum producer, is raising its
forecast for global consumption of the metal on stronger demand
from China. GM, the biggest overseas automaker in China, says
the nation's vehicle sales may reach 12 million, surpassing the
U.S. as the world's No. 1 market.
    The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index entered a bear
market, or a decline of at least 20 percent, Aug. 31 on concern
a slide in new loans in July might slow production and
investment. Figures for August may allay the fears: Industrial
output rose the most in a year and retail sales climbed at a 15
percent annual pace, median forecasts in Bloomberg News surveys
show.
    "Credit tightening isn't going to crash the economy,"
said Tim Condon, head of Asia research in Singapore at ING Groep
NV and a former economist at the World Bank. "It's taking
investors a little time to get their heads around this fact."
   The Shanghai index rose for a sixth day yesterday, helping
pare the decline from this year's record close on Aug. 4 to 16
percent. The measure fell 0.3 percent as of 1:04 p.m. today.

                           'On Track'

    A boom in lending earlier this year will be enough to
sustain a pick-up in the country's economic expansion, analysts
said. China's gross domestic product may increase 9.5 percent in
2010 after an 8.3 percent gain in 2009, the smallest in eight
years, according to a Bloomberg survey of 22 economists
conducted the week ending Aug. 28.
    "China's economic recovery is well on track," said Lu
Zhengwei, an economist in Shanghai at Fuzhou-based Industrial
Bank Co., China's seventh-largest bank by market value. "With
the explosion of loans so far, stimulus investment won't be
affected, even if lending declines for the rest of this year."
    August new-lending figures are scheduled to be released
Sept. 11 and may show a 10 percent decline to 320 billion yuan
($47 billion), according to the median estimate of nine analysts
surveyed by Bloomberg. The July total was less than 25 percent
of the June figure.
    Loans reached a record 7.7 trillion yuan in the first half
of the year, spurring concern among Chinese policy makers that a
credit boom would stoke speculation in assets such as stocks and
property.
    While credit growth is slowing, some industries are
continuing to obtain financing, helping ease any impact on the
nation's manufacturing, analysts said.

                         Ample Funding

    Loans of more than a year, used for projects such as
railways and power-generation plants, showed ample funding, said
Wang Tao, an economist in Beijing at Zurich-based UBS AG,
Switzerland's largest bank by assets. Short-term credit, more
likely to be used for speculative purposes, dropped, she added.
    Industrial production, due for release on Sept. 11, rose at
an 11.8 percent annual rate in August, after a 10.8 percent
increase in July, according to the median of 15 estimates in a
Bloomberg survey. Retail sales figures the same day may show a
15.3 percent gain in August from a year earlier, the biggest
rise since January, economists' estimates indicate.
    To maintain the momentum, the central government has
budgeted 487.5 billion yuan of stimulus spending this year and
another 588.5 billion yuan in 2010 for work on projects from
low-cost housing to reconstruction in Sichuan province, hit by a
7.9-magnitude earthquake in May 2008.

                         Rising Demand

    All this means more business for Chinese and international
companies. Alcoa expects China's consumption of aluminum to rise
4 percent this year, compared with its earlier prediction of
zero growth, because of demand triggered by stimulus spending,
Chief Executive Officer Klaus Kleinfeld said in a Sept. 3
interview.
    GM sales in China last month jumped to 152,365 vehicles, a
gain of more than 100 percent, as tax cuts and stimulus measures
spurred demand. The Detroit-based company said its 2009 sales
will rise more than 40 percent from 1.09 million last year.
    The total for all automakers may increase 28 percent this
year to as many as 12 million, China's top planning agency said
Sept. 5.
    Auto production accounts for about 2 percent of GDP and
aluminum output for about 0.5 percent, according to estimates
by David Cohen, an economist in Singapore at Action Economics.
    China Railway Construction Corp., the builder of more than
half the nation's railroads, saw first-half profit jump 46
percent to 2.2 billion yuan, bolstered by government spending.

                      'Definitely Exceed'

   "We are the beneficiary of a once-in-a-hundred-years
opportunity," Vice Chairman Ding Yuanchen told reporters Sept.
2 in Hong Kong. The company "will definitely exceed" its sales
target of 266.3 billion yuan this year, he added.
    Manufacturing expanded the most in 16 months in August,
driven by the record lending in the first half of the year, the
official Purchasing Managers' Index showed Sept. 1. Urban
investment in fixed assets such as factories and properties
surged 32.7 percent in the first eight months of 2009 from a
year earlier, according to the median estimate of 15 economists
surveyed by Bloomberg.
    China is also likely to benefit from a recovery in global
trade, which the World Bank expects will record the first
contraction since 1982 this year. Chinese exports may climb as
much as 15 percent in 2010 after shrinking this year, said Peter
Redward, head of Asian emerging-markets research in Singapore at
Barclays Plc, the U.K.'s second-biggest lender.

                         Import Demand

    Trade figures this week may show that China's imports, the
world's third-largest, fell 10.5 percent in August from a year
earlier, the least in 10 months, according to the Bloomberg
survey median.
    Excess capacity in a number of industries remains a drag on
the nation's growth for now.
    Li Yizhong, China's industry minister, ordered steel
companies on Aug. 13 to refrain from expansion for the next
three years. Mills can produce 660 million metric tons of steel
annually and there's demand for only 470 million tons, Li said.
    Industrial profits dropped 17.3 percent in the first seven
months of 2009 from a year earlier to 1.11 trillion yuan,
according to the National Statistics Bureau.
    "Despite a more self-evident economic turnaround in China,
the prospect for the world economy remains unclear and the
downside risk to external demand remains significant," the
Commerce Ministry said last month.
    China still has ample resources to maintain its economic
acceleration, analysts said. The nation has the world's largest
foreign-exchange reserves, at $2.1 trillion, and outstanding
government debt of only 20 percent of GDP, compared with 87
percent in India, according to the International Monetary Fund.
    "The government will do whatever it takes to keep growth
going," said Huang Yiping, an economics professor at Beijing
University and the former chief Asia Pacific economist at
Citigroup Inc., the third-largest U.S. bank.

For Related News and Information:
China economic calendar: ECO CH <GO>
China economic snapshot: ESNP CH <GO>
China's manufacturing: TNI CHINA MAC <GO>
China's trade balance: CNFTBL <INDEX> GP <GO>
Chinese company earnings: TNI CHINA ERN BN <GO>
Most-read stories on China: MNI CHINA 1W <GO>
Most-read China economy stories: TNI CHECO MOSTREAD BN
<GO>
Top economic news: TOP ECO <GO>

--With assistance from Kevin Hamlin and Li Yanping in
Beijing. Editors: Paul Panckhurst, Matthew Brooker

To contact the Bloomberg News staff on this story:
Kevin Hamlin in Beijing on +86-10-6649-7573 or
khamlin@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Michael Dwyer at +65-6212-1130 or
mdwyer5@bloomberg.net