terça-feira, 24 de março de 2009

(BN) China ‘Super Currency’ Call Shows Dollar Concern

China 'Super Currency' Call Shows Dollar Concern (Update1)
2009-03-24 17:00:12.901 GMT


(Updates with Geithner, Bernanke comments starting in
seventh paragraph.)

By Li Yanping
March 24 (Bloomberg) -- China's call for a new
international reserve currency may signal its concern at the
dollar's weakness and ambitions for a leadership role at next
week's Group of 20 summit, economists said.
Central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan yesterday urged the
International Monetary Fund to create a "super-sovereign
reserve currency." The dollar weakened after the Federal
Reserve said it would buy Treasuries and the U.S. government
outlined plans to buy illiquid bank assets
"China is concerned about the potential for a slide in the
dollar as the U.S. attempts to stimulate its economy," said
Mark Williams, a London-based economist at Capital Economics
Ltd. The "rare" sight of a Chinese official attempting to
reframe an international debate may be "a sign of China
becoming more engaged," he said.
Zhou's comments may also signal ambitions for the yuan to
play a bigger global role. The central bank this week signed a
currency swap with Indonesia, adding to agreements since
December with South Korea, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Belarus. It's
also preparing for trade settlement in the Chinese currency with
Hong Kong, Macau and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
"There is concern and even frustration among top
policymakers in Beijing about China's high exposure to U.S.
dollar-denominated financial assets," said Brian Jackson,
senior strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong.
Yuan forwards rose the most in three months with traders
betting on appreciation for the first time since September on
speculation that the U.S. policies will weaken the dollar. The
12-month forward rate gained 0.9 percent.

Support for Dollar

U.S. policy makers testifying before lawmakers in
Washington today affirmed their support for the dollar.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, asked at a House
Financial Services Committee hearing whether he rejected moving
toward a global currency, replied, "I would, yes."
"I would also," said Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S.
Bernanke. The question was asked by Representative Michele
Bachmann, a Minnesota Republican.
Premier Wen Jiabao called on March 13 for the U.S. "to
guarantee the safety of China's assets." China's Treasury
holdings climbed 46 percent in 2008 and now stand at about $740
billion, according to U.S. government data. The nation is the
biggest holder of U.S. debt.

Raising Yuan's Status

China is promoting use of the yuan to smooth currency
volatility and to serve "a long-standing interest" to raise
its status to that of a global reserve currency, said Ben
Simpfendorfer, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc
in Hong Kong. Such moves are not "a knee-jerk response" to the
economic crisis, he said.
"If turning the Chinese yuan into a global reserve
currency sounds ambitious, then encouraging its adoption as a
regional reserve currency is more straightforward," said
Simpfendorfer.
G-20 leaders will gather in London on April 2 to forge a
common response to the financial crisis that has spawned a
global recession. The summit will discuss proposals for reforms
of the International Monetary Fund.

Flexing 'Some Muscle'

The timing of Zhou's proposal is "the latest example of
China's policy of neo-assertiveness in world affairs," said
Glenn Maguire, chief Asia economist at Societe Generale SA in
Hong Kong. "China is starting to flex some muscle and generally
steer the debate in China's own direction."
Zhou's article highlighted the "dilemma" that countries
issuing reserve currencies face in balancing their own monetary-
policy goals with other nations' demand for their money.
The global crisis raised the question of which reserve
currency would secure "global financial stability and
facilitate world economic growth," Zhou said. He proposed
expanding the use of the IMF's Special Drawing Rights, which are
currency units valued against a composite of currencies.
"The basket of currencies forming the basis for SDR
valuation should be expanded to include currencies of all major
economies, and gross domestic product may also be included as a
weighting," said Zhou.
Some economists back his case.
"The world economic landscape has been changed since the
establishment of the SDR 40 years ago," said Ha Jiming, chief
economist at China International Capital Corp. in Hong Kong.
"Specifically, no such reserve currency would make sense
without the yuan being included."

--With reporting by Timothy R. Homan in Washington. Editors:
Paul Panckhurst, David Tweed.

To contact the reporters on this story:
Li Yanping in Beijing at +86-10-6649-7568 or
yli16@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
David Tweed in Tokyo at +81-3-3201-2494 or
dtweed@bloomberg.net

quinta-feira, 19 de março de 2009

BOOM: Gold jumped the most in six months in New York

http://trendsniffer.blogspot.com

OBS: quantitative easing in the USA raised the ghost of 1970s style inflation weakening the dollar and sending investors stampeding back to commodities.

By Nicholas Larkin and Pham-Duy Nguyen

March 19 (Bloomberg) -- Gold jumped the most in six months in New York after the Federal Reserve’s plan to buy debt weakened the dollar and revived concerns inflation will

accelerate. Silver surged to the biggest gain in 29 years.

The dollar fell as much as 2.3 percent against a weighted basket of six major currencies. The greenback dropped 2.7 percent yesterday following the Fed’s pledge to buy as much as

$1.15 trillion of Treasuries and mortgage debt to cut borrowing costs. Gold reached a record $1,033.90 an ounce on March 17, 2008, as interest-rate cuts sent the dollar to an all-time low

against the euro. The metal is up 8.4 percent this year.

“Investors are worried the Fed will print as much money as they need to and this is going to lead to some insanely hot inflation, so they’re out buying gold,” said Matt Zeman, a metals trader at LaSalle Futures Group in Chicago. “The dollar got clobbered. You print more money and it buys you less.”

Gold futures for April delivery soared $69.70, or 7.8 percent, to $958.80 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex division, the biggest gain for a most-active contract since Sept. 17.

Silver futures for May delivery rose $1.585, or 13 percent, to $13.52 an ounce on the Comex, the highest jump for a most-active contract since Dec. 31, 1979. The metal has risen 20

percent this year.

The central bank pledged to buy as much as $300 billion of Treasuries, as well as to expand purchases of mortgage-backed securities by $750 billion and of debt from government-sponsored enterprises by $100 billion, to ease credit and boost the housing market.

Gold ‘Should’ Gain

“The Fed’s purchase of Treasuries is a significant psychological step, as it becomes a de facto lender to the U.S. Treasury,” analysts at UBS AG said today in a report. “The

question then becomes, where will borrowings stop? The pressure on the U.S. dollar as the government effectively prints money should result in gold prices appreciating in dollar terms.”

On Feb. 23, UBS said gold could reach $1,050 an ounce within a month.

The Fed yesterday also left its benchmark lending-rate target range at zero to 0.25 percent and said it may keep it there for an “extended” time.

“With the interest-rate tool out the window, the Fed is cranking up the printing press,” LaSalle’s Zeman said.

Central banks are lowering borrowing costs and spending trillions of dollars in response to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. That may devalue currencies and

boost demand for bullion as an alternative investment.

‘Far From Recovery’

“The effects of the announcement were magnified as it portrayed the fact that perhaps the economy is far from recovery,” Emanuel Georgouras, a precious-metals trader at

Marex Financial Ltd. in London, wrote today in a note. “Should quantitative easing continue, you can expect to see further gains in gold.”

For most of this year, gold and the dollar have abandoned their traditional inverse relationship as investors bought both assets to hedge against turmoil in financial markets. The

correlation may resume after the Fed’s announcement, analysts said.

Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest ETF backed by bullion, expanded 1.4 percent to a record 1,084.33 metric tons yesterday, according to the company’s Web site.

ETF Securities Ltd.’s exchange-traded products backed by bullion attracted almost $134 million last week, the company said today.

Gold’s rally after the Fed’s announcement is “insane” because U.S. inflation may not accelerate until 2011, said Peter Fertig, owner of Quantitative Commodity Research Ltd.

“There’s no real spillover from the monetary system to the real economy yet,” Fertig said today by phone from Hainburg, Germany. “The U.S. is far from inflationary pressures. It will take some time before the gap is closed.”

For Related News and Information:

Top commodity stories: CTOP <GO>

Top metals stories: METT <GO>

Technical gauges: BTST <GO>

Gold swaps, lease rates: GLDL <GO>

Commodity forecasts: CPF <GO>

--Editors: Ted Bunker, Patrick McKiernan.

To contact the reporter on this story:

Nicholas Larkin in London at +44-20-7673-2069 or

nlarkin1@bloomberg.net;

Pham-Duy Nguyen in Seattle at +1-206-521-2741 or

pnguyen@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story:

Stuart Wallace at +44-20-7673-2388 or

swallace6@bloomberg.net;

Steve Stroth at +1-312-443-5931 or

sstroth@bloomberg.net.

quarta-feira, 18 de março de 2009

Petrobras breaking out: ai que saudade das minhas commodities...

Olhem http://trendsniffer.blogspot.com

O dollar americano mudando de direcional....contra todas em geral....

Será que o Dollar Index tomou um pancada? COM CERTEZA!

DXY takes a punch : The Federal Reserve said it will buy $300 billion in Treasury

By Craig Torres

     March 18 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve said it will buy $300 billion in Treasury securities and increase its purchases of mortgage and agency debt in an effort to bolster

housing and hasten the end of the recession.

     “To provide greater support to mortgage lending and housing markets, the committee decided today to increase the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet further by

purchasing up to an additional $750 billion of agency mortgage- backed securities,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement in Washington today. “Moreover, to help improve conditions in private credit markets, the committee decided to purchase up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities over the next six months.”

     Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is becoming more aggressive after unemployment climbed to 8.1 percent and economists forecast the economy will shrink through the middle of the year. Fed officials also kept the benchmark interest rate at between zero and 0.25 percent. The central bank also said it will consider expanding the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to

include “other financial assets,” the statement said.

     The Fed added that it will “increase its purchases of agency debt this year by up to $100 billion to a total of up to $200 billion. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is trying to

prevent the credit contraction from deepening what already may be the worst recession in 60 years. The U.S. jobless rate jumpe to the highest level in more than a quarter century last month. Industrial production fell 1.4 percent, the fourth consecutive decline, while factory capacity in use slumped to 70.9 percent, matching the lowest level on record.


Dollar INDEX giving more signs of weakness: Good for commodities

 

sexta-feira, 6 de março de 2009

Ibov Movers today

 

Hard Winter is over in us and Gasoline Demand is giving a early buying signal

Source: Bloomberg/DOE

DOE Motor Gasoline Total Output Implied Demand Data

Dollar Index: Na beeeeeira do abismo

The abyss has @ least 12% to perform. Bullish for commodities when breaking the upside channel trendline.

Crude Oil Index

The king of the world is BASING

 

The current Dow correction already ranks as the second worst since 1896

Chart of the Day
Poor retail sales, doubts about GM's viability, and a clarification by the Chinese government that they would not add to its current $585 billion stimulus plan as some had hoped yesterday all helped push the market down 4% on the day. As a result of today's decline, the Dow closed at a new bear market low. The Dow is currently down 53.4% since peaking in October 2007. To put the magnitude of the current correction in perspective, today's chart illustrates the 15 worst corrections of the Dow since its inception in 1896. As today's chart illustrates, the current Dow correction already ranks as the second worst on record. Only the correction that began in 1929 was worse.

credits: http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090306.htm?T

 

2 dos meus benchmarks MACRO, até que não estão ruims...

 

quarta-feira, 4 de março de 2009

Crude Oil : New 9 days high

Eh volatilidade....

 

LIVRO BEGE – 04/03/2009

--LIVRO BEGE: ECOMONIA DOS EUA SE DETERIOROU MAIS ATÉ O FINAL DE FEV.

--LIVRO BEGE: NÃO SE VÊ RECUPERAÇÃO SIGNIFICATIVA ATÉ O FINAL DE 2009 E 2010

--LIVRO BEGE: PERSPECTIVAS PARA O CURTO PRAZO SÃO FRACAS

--LIVRO BEGE: GASTOS ESTÃO DESACELERANDO; SETOR AUTOMOTIVO MUITO FRACO

--LIVRO BEGE: NÃO HÁ SINAL DE ALÍVIO NA QUEDA DOS PREÇOS/RESIDÊNCIAS

--LIVRO BEGE: EMPRÉSTIMOS EM QUEDA; DEMANDA POR HIPOTECAS “DEPRIMIDA”

--LIVRO BEGE: SETOR DE MORADIAS ESTÁ ESTAGNADO, EM SUA MAIORIA

--LIVRO BEGE: DESEMPREGO NO GERAL EM ALTA; PRESSÃO/ SALÁRIOS DIMINUI

Cobre tem testado resistencias...e agora josé?

 

segunda-feira, 2 de março de 2009

FELIZ 2009 : Frase do artigo do Friedman NYT de domingo

“As we look at 2009, on every issue, with the single exception of Iraq, everything is worse,” said Ian Bremmer, co-author of “The Fat Tail,” about the biggest risks facing the world’s decision-makers. “Pakistan is worse. Afghanistan is worse. Russia is worse. Emerging markets are worse. Everything big out there is worse, and some will be made even worse by the economic crisis.”

Programa do imposto de renda 2009