BUY Chinese YUAN FX and USD denominated COMMODITIES

YUAN = RENMINBI = CNY = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renminbi

Monthly since 81

This is monthly microscale 94/2010

I prefer to be long CNY

ADP grows less than forecasted

ADP + 13 vs 60 expected

not good

(BN) Stocks Slide, Treasuries Jump on Concern Over China,

Stocks Slide, Treasuries Jump on Concern Over China, Confidence
2010-06-29 14:24:12.198 GMT


By Rita Nazareth and Stephen Kirkland
    June 29 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks plunged from Shanghai to New
York, with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index sinking below its
lowest closing level of the year, and Treasury two-year note
yields dropped to a record low on concern over weakening growth
in China and lower-than-estimated U.S. consumer confidence.
    The S&P 500 slid 2.5 percent to 1,047.61 at 10:18 a.m. in
New York, its lowest on a closing basis since November 2009. The
MSCI World Index of 24 developed nations lost 2.9 percent, the
biggest drop since May 20. The benchmark 2012 Treasury note
yield slid as low as 0.5857 percent and the 10-year yield sank
below 3 percent for the first time in 14 months. China's
Shanghai Composite Index slumped 4.3 percent, the most in six
weeks, and the yen rose to an eight-year high against the euro.
    "It's ugly out there," said James Paulsen, who helps
oversee about $375 billion as chief investment strategist at
Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis. "Consumers are pulling
back. There's concern about a China slowdown. We're close to
important technical levels on the S&P 500, with 1,040 being
closely watched. It's end of quarter, investors have to close
their books and they are selling the stocks that did poorly."
    The tumble in global stocks started after the Conference
Board's leading economic index for China, which overtook Germany
as the world's biggest exporter last year, rose 0.3 percent in
April, less than the 1.7 percent reported June 15. Losses
accelerated after the same research group's gauge of U.S.
consumer confidence slumped to 52.9 in June, less than all 71
projections in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

                   Home Prices Overshadowed

    The S&P 500, the benchmark gauge for U.S. stocks, retreated
for the sixth time in seven days even after a report showed home
prices in 20 U.S. cities rose in April from a year earlier as
sales got a boost from a tax credit. The S&P/Case-Shiller index
of property values climbed 3.8 percent from April 2009, the
biggest year-over-year gain since September 2006. The gain
topped the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg
News.
    Today's data damaged investor confidence amid concern a
Labor Department report July 2 will show the U.S. lost jobs for
the first time this year while European bank balance sheets come
under renewed scrutiny.
    All 10 industry groups in the MSCI World gauge declined,
led by basic-materials producers and financial companies. The
index has lost 8.4 percent this year. The MSCI Asia Pacific
Index dropped 1.6 percent today as Japan's unemployment rate
unexpectedly increased.

                     Treasuries Rally

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury security slid as much as
7 basis points to 2.95 percent, the lowest since April 2009.
Treasuries have climbed 5.7 percent this year, according to
indexes compiled by Bloomberg and the European Federation of
Financial Analysts Societies. The 10-year Australian bond yield
dropped nine basis points to 5.14 percent, and the yield on the
German bund retreated three basis points to 2.55 percent.
    The yen appreciated 1.5 percent to 108.05 per euro, the
strongest level since November 2001, while the 16-nation
European currency weakened 0.8 percent against the dollar to
$1.2176, falling for the second consecutive day. The Swiss franc
strengthened to less than 1.33 per euro for the first time amid
speculation the nation's central bank won't intervene to curb
its appreciation.
    Metals declined for the first time in four sessions on the
London Metal Exchange, led by a 4.8 percent drop in zinc and 5.3
percent plunge in lead. Copper fell 3.8 percent, extending its
decline this year to 10 percent. Gold slipped 0.2 percent to
$1,236.78 an ounce, trimming this year's gain to less than 13
percent. Oil for August delivery slumped 3.2 percent to $75.78 a
barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

                       Emerging Markets

    The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 2.6 percent, the most
since June 7, extending this year's drop to 6.3 percent.
Benchmark indexes in Russia, the world's largest energy
supplier, Poland, Ukraine, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Dubai,
Indonesia and Egypt lost more than 2 percent.
    The New York-based Conference Board cited a calculation
error for the revision in its Chinese index. The research
group's outlook for the nation's economy hasn't been affected by
the correction, said William Adams, the group's resident
economist in Beijing.
    "Growth was not likely to accelerate in China, and in
fact, a moderation is possible," Adams said in a telephone
interview. "This correction also supports the same view."
    The Stoxx Europe 600 Index tumbled 2 percent as Rio Tinto
Group, the world's third-biggest mining company, plunged 4.8
percent on concern demand from China may weaken. BP Plc slid 2.7
percent, bringing its decline since an April explosion on the
Deepwater Horizon rig to more than 50 percent.
    The cost of insuring BP's debt approached a record, with
credit-default swaps increasing 3.5 basis points to 587.4,
according to CMA DataVision, a London-based credit information
provider. The contracts closed at an all-time high of 588.6 on
June 25.

For Related News and Information:
Developed Markets View: DMMV <GO>
Emerging Markets View: EMMV <GO>
Stock Market Map: IMAP G <GO>
World Equity Markets: WEI <GO>
World Bond Markets: WB <GO>
Pipeline of Bonds: PREL <GO>
World Currency Ranker: WCRS <GO>
Commodity Ranked Returns: CRR <GO>
Credit-Default Swap Indexes: MKIT <GO>
World Trends and Reversals: WTR <GO>
Graphing: GRAPH <GO>

----With assistance from Claudia Carpenter, Lukanyo Mnyanda
Andrew Rummer, Michael Shanahan and Daniel Tilles in London.
Editor: Michael P. Regan

To contact the reporters on this story:
Stephen Kirkland in London at +44-20-7073-3172 or
skirkland@bloomberg.net;

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Paul Sillitoe in London at +4420-7073-3857

Yuan is turning higher : Sell Dollars

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-yuan-chinese-airlines-rally-2010-06-21?dist=beforebell

(BN) Greece Cut Four Steps to Junk by Moody’s on Economic Risks

Greece Cut Four Steps to Junk by Moody's on Economic 'Risks'
2010-06-14 17:51:34.243 GMT


By Ben Martin
    June 14 (Bloomberg) -- Greece's credit rating was cut four
steps to non-investment grade, or junk, by Moody's Investors
Service, which cited the country's economic "risks."
    The rating was lowered to Ba1 from A3, Moody's said in a
statement today from London. The outlook is stable, it said.
Greece is already rated junk by Standard & Poor's.
    The European Union last month announced a rescue package of
almost $1 trillion, with support from the International Monetary
Fund, to shore up the finances of the region's weakest economies
amid concern that governments will struggle to narrow their
budget deficits.
    "It's a significant downgrade," said Kevin Flanagan, a
Purchase, New York-based fixed-income strategist for Morgan
Stanley Smith Barney. "It's not a surprise to people, but the
timing and magnitude is what has taken Treasuries off the lows
and is providing some support."
    The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose six basis
points to 3.30 percent, after rising to 3.33 percent.
    "The Ba1 rating reflects our analysis of the balance of
the strengths and risks associated with the euro-zone-IMF
support package," Sarah Carlson, vice president-senior analyst
in Moody's sovereign risk group, said in the statement.
    S&P cut Greece's credit rating to non-investment grade on
April 27, the first time a euro member lost its investment-grade
since the euro's 1999 debut. S&P warned that bondholders could
recover as little as 30 percent of their initial investment if
the country restructures its debt.

For Related News and Information:
Top stories: TOP <GO>
Bond yield forecasts: BYFC <GO>
Greek debt crisis: EXT3 <GO>
For new issues: NIM4 <GO>
For top bond stories TOP BON <GO>
Greek crisis special report: EXT3 <GO>

--With assistance from Benjamin Levisohn in New York. Editors:
Daniel Tilles, Dave Liedtka

To contact the reporter on this story:
Ben Martin in London +44-20-7073-3397 or
bmartin38@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Ben Livesey at +44-20-7673-2371 or
blivesey@bloomberg.net.

(AFL) Produção industrial da Zona do euro tem maior avanço desde 91

Produção industrial da Zona do euro tem maior avanço desde 1991
2010-06-14 10:33:47.520 GMT


Reuters

Bruxelas, Bélgica (FolhaNews)
A produção industrial da zona do euro registrou em abril a maior alta na
comparação anual em quase duas décadas, segundo dados da Agência de Estatísticas
Eurostat, divulgados nesta segunda-feira.

A atividade cresceu 0,8% sobre março e saltou 9,5% ante abril de 2009, a maior
variação desde o início da série histórica em janeiro de 1991.

A Eurostat revisou para cima o dado de março, para crescimento de 1,5% ante
fevereiro e de 7,7% sobre o ano passado, ante as leituras preliminares de,
respectivamente, 1,3% e 6,9%.


Provider ID: 00011AFL
-0- Jun/14/2010 10:33 GMT

Acho bom venda de 14.75 / 15 put pra outubro

time will tell

Sugar Short is over? Maybe YES!

Output in Center South, Brazil's main cane-growing region, jumped 26 percent in May's first half as mills processed a record crop, industry association Unica said last week. Some traders are betting that production may start to slow because of excessive rain and lack of sun during growing months, according to researcher Kingsman SA.

"We will have to keep a sharp eye out on the Unica crush numbers as we move through the season,"Jonathan Kingsman, managing director of Lausanne, Switzerland-based Kingsman, wrote in a report yesterday after trading closed. "The bulls argue that as the season progresses, the cane will lose both agricultural and industrial yield."

(BN) Investors Pick U.S. Over BRICs in Bloomberg User Poll

Investors Pick U.S. Over BRICs in Bloomberg User Poll (Update1)
2010-06-08 01:21:00.211 GMT


    (Adds Hungary's pledge to control deficit in second
paragraph under Debt Crisis sub-headline.)

By Mike Dorning
    June 8 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. has supplanted China and
Brazil as the most attractive market for investors as confidence
in the global economic recovery wanes in the wake of the Greek
debt crisis.
    Investors are putting their money on President Barack
Obama's stewardship of the U.S. economy even as his job-approval
rating has declined, according to a global quarterly poll of
investors and analysts who are Bloomberg subscribers.
    Almost four of 10 respondents picked the U.S. as the market
presenting the best opportunities in the year ahead. That's more
than double the portion who said so last October, when the U.S.
was rated the market posing the greatest downside risk by a
plurality of respondents.
    Lawrence Summers, director of the White House National
Economic Council, said this attests to Obama's efforts at
"restoring the United States to strong economic fundamentals."
He added that "while there remains much to do, the U.S. economy
is growing."
    "We've seen the bottom; we're firm, and the United States
is slowly moving forward," said Wayne Smith, 51, managing
director of fixed-income trading at Uniondale, New York-based
Northeast Securities, which manages $3.5 billion.
    Following the U.S.'s 39 percent rating as the most
promising market were Brazil, chosen by 29 percent; China, 28
percent; and India, 27 percent. Those are three of the four so-
called BRICs, large emerging markets that also include Russia.
Just 6 percent chose Russia.
    In a poll taken in January, China was the favorite followed
by Brazil. Respondents were allowed to pick multiple countries.

                     'Least Dirty Shirt'

    The U.S. is one of the few relative bright spots in a
global market rattled by the Greek debt crisis. Bill Gross, co-
chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co.
and manager of the world's largest bond fund, called the U.S.
"the least dirty shirt," in a Bloomberg Radio interview.
    Forty-two percent of investors now believe the world
economy is deteriorating, double the 21 percent who thought so
in January. U.S. investors were the most pessimistic about the
global economy, with 58 percent saying it is getting worse
versus 31 percent of Europeans and 35 percent of Asians.
Europeans were the most pessimistic about their own region, with
40 percent viewing it as deteriorating; 21 percent of U.S.
investors viewed their home region negatively, while 9 percent
in Asia felt that way.
    International views of the European Union have declined
sharply. More than half of respondents believe the EU offers the
worst investment opportunities, up from a third who said so in
January, when Europe also ranked at the bottom.

                         Debt Crisis

    The crisis in Greece, where soaring deficits have stirred
fears of a government default, has rippled throughout Europe,
with credit agencies downgrading sovereign debt in Portugal and
Spain. On June 4, stocks slumped as a comment by a Hungarian
official that his nation's economy is in a "very grave
situation" fanned concern the debt crisis will spread.
    Hungary's government yesterday pledged to control the
budget deficit and make structural changes to overhaul the
economy as it distanced itself from suggestions the country was
facing a Greece-like crisis.
    The turmoil has drawn a flood of international money into
U.S. government debt, with yields on 10-year Treasury notes
dropping from 3.99 percent on April 5 to 3.15 percent at 4:18
p.m., New York time yesterday. While the Standard & Poor's 500
Index has declined more than 13 percent since its April 23 high,
the benchmark U.S. stock index is up more than 30 percent since
Obama took office.

                        Can't Keep Up

    "While American companies cut down the workforce at their
plants as fast before as they are now hiring workers back,
European companies were not able to respond in a similar way,"
said poll respondent Ofir Navot, 35, of Tel Aviv, head of global
investments for Ramco Mutual Funds, which manages about $400
million.
    Investors' rising confidence in the U.S. economy isn't
reflected in their appraisal of Obama: The poll shows his job-
approval rating dropped to 51 percent from 60 percent in
January.
    Investors remain bullish on China's long-term prospects.
More than 6 of 10 believe China will replace the U.S. as the
world's largest economy within 20 years. Almost a quarter
believe it will do so within a decade.
    Respondents don't share Treasury Secretary Timothy
Geithner's optimism that China will revalue its currency soon. A
majority said it will be at least a year before the country does
so.

                         Making Money

    The quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll of investors, traders
and analysts on six continents was conducted June 2-3 by Selzer
& Co., a Des Moines, Iowa-based firm. It is based on interviews
with a random sample of 1,001 Bloomberg subscribers,
representing decision makers in markets, finance and economics.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage
points.
    Even with the pessimism over the global outlook, more
investors see a chance to make money in this environment.
Thirty-five percent said they are seeing opportunity and taking
risks, up from 27 percent who said so in January. Asian
investors were especially likely to see rewards ahead, with 48
percent saying they are taking more risks.
    With poll respondents confident in U.S. growth prospects,
the emerging doubts about a global economic recovery haven't
translated into major shifts in views toward asset classes. As
in the January poll, stocks are considered the most attractive
asset class for the coming year. While commodities were second,
the portion of investors choosing them declined to 23 percent
from 31 percent.

                       Bearish on Bonds

    Bonds were chosen as the asset class likely to offer the
worst returns, with 36 percent of respondents saying that. Real
estate was rated next worst, chosen by 24 percent.
    Investors in Asia, where there are fears that China's
property market is overheated, were the most pessimistic about
real estate, rating it the worst asset to hold.
    Poll respondents by an almost 2-to-1 margin expect to
increase rather than decrease holdings of stocks during the next
six months.
    More than half of investors believe the S&P 500 index will
be higher in six months, though sentiments are bearish on the
Euro Stoxx 50 index and Britain's FTSE index.
    Investors are also bullish on crude oil prices, which
usually rise along with economic activity. Forty-nine percent
believe oil prices will be higher in six months compared with 24
percent who say they will be lower. The rest expect little
change.

                       Gold Seen Rising

    By a margin of 47 percent to 30 percent, respondents say
they expect the price of gold, a traditional hedge against
political and economic turmoil, to rise in six months. By a
margin of 50 percent to 25 percent, they see yields on the 10-
year Treasury note rising.
    Fears of inflation are muted. Only a little more than a
quarter consider it a major threat in "the next couple years."
The regions considered most at risk were China, cited by 19
percent of respondents, followed by the U.S., cited by 17
percent, and the Euro zone, picked by 10 percent.
    To see the methodology and exact wording of the poll
questions, click on the attachment tab at the top of the story.

For Related News and Information:
U.S. economic data watch: ESNP US <GO>
U.S. unemployment rate: USURTOT <INDEX> GP <GO>
U.S. economic forecasts: ECFC US <GO>
European economic forecasts: ECFC EU <GO>
European crisis monitor: CRIS <GO>
Bloomberg stories on the economy: TNI US ECO BN <GO>
Bloomberg news on the Federal Reserve: NI FED BN <GO>

--Editors: Mark McQuillan, Max Berley.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mike Dorning in
Washington at +1-202-624-1971 or mdorning@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Chris Wellisz at +1-202-624-1862 or cwellisz@bloomberg.net.