tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27954520087885828772024-03-14T02:52:26.727-03:00Ça c'est la vie cosmopolite contemporainePartant du principe qu'aujourd'hui tout le monde doit avoir son Blog personel.Bertrand Clausell Wanclikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04191041643493515219noreply@blogger.comBlogger444125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2795452008788582877.post-31016682600782294182015-12-29T09:13:00.001-02:002015-12-29T09:16:04.228-02:00(BN) Faber Seeing Recession Clashes With Yellen, Likes Treasuries<div class="rte-style-msg-personal-disclaimer" style="border-top: 1px dotted #383838; margin-top: 12px; padding-top: 12px;">
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Faber Seeing Recession Clashes With Yellen, Likes Treasuries<br />
2015-12-29 08:50:35.878 GMT<br />
<br />
<br />
By Wes Goodman<br />
(Bloomberg) -- Marc Faber recommends Treasuries and says<br />
the U.S. is at the start of an economic recession, clashing with<br />
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's view that things are<br />
improving.<br />
"Ten-year U.S. Treasuries are quite attractive because of<br />
my outlook for a weakening economy," Faber, the publisher of the<br />
Gloom, Boom, Doom Report, said in an interview with Bloomberg<br />
on Monday. "I believe that we're already entering a recession in<br />
the United States" and U.S. stocks will fall in 2016, he said.<br />
Yellen raised interest rates this month for the first time<br />
in almost a decade and said Americans should take the decision<br />
as a sign of confidence in the U.S. economy. Analysts differ<br />
over whether the Fed's decision to increase its benchmark came<br />
at the right time because the inflation rate is stuck near zero<br />
even as gross domestic product expands.<br />
The benchmark U.S. 10-year note yield was little changed at<br />
2.23 percent as of 8:44 a.m. in London, according to Bloomberg<br />
Bond Trader prices. The price of the 2.25 percent security due<br />
in November 2025 was 100 5/32. Treasuries have returned 1.1<br />
percent in 2015, down from 6.2 percent last year, based on<br />
Bloomberg World Bond Indexes.<br />
U.S. economic growth slowed to an annualized 2 percent rate<br />
last quarter from 3.9 percent in the previous three months, the<br />
Commerce Department said Dec. 22. The last time the economy was<br />
in a recession was December 2007 until June 2009, according to<br />
the National Bureau of Economic Research.<br />
"While things may be uneven across regions of the country<br />
and different industrial sectors, we see an economy that is on a<br />
path of sustainable improvement," Yellen said Dec. 16 after the<br />
Fed increased its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point.<br />
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers and<br />
economist Nouriel Roubini had both warned the Fed should be<br />
cautious because inflation has yet to pick up as the economy<br />
expands.<br />
The central bank's preferred inflation index was at 0.4<br />
percent in November, a government report showed this month. It<br />
has been below the Fed's 2 percent target for more than three<br />
years.<br />
Faber is also at odds with the consensus view on<br />
Treasuries. U.S. 10-year yields will climb to 2.80 percent by<br />
the end of 2016, based on Bloomberg surveys of economists with<br />
the most recent forecasts given the heaviest weightings.<br />
<br />
To contact the reporter on this story:<br />
Wes Goodman in Singapore at wgoodman@bloomberg.net<br />
To contact the editors responsible for this story:<br />
Tomoko Yamazaki at tyamazaki@bloomberg.net<br />
Nicholas Reynolds, Naoto Hosoda</div>
Bertrand Clausell Wanclikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04191041643493515219noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2795452008788582877.post-61982116007549855202013-04-01T16:01:00.001-03:002013-04-01T16:07:58.003-03:00Need a Job? Invent It<div dir="ltr">
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Need a Job? Invent It</div>
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Finding a job is so 20th century. That is why young people today need to be more "innovation ready" than "college ready."<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/31/opinion/sunday/friedman-need-a-job-invent-it.html?smid=pl-share">Article @ NYTimes</a><br />
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Bertrand Clausell Wanclikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04191041643493515219noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2795452008788582877.post-73117758637713035642013-04-01T15:22:00.000-03:002013-04-01T15:22:02.072-03:00<br />
<div class="nyt_headline" id="nyt_headline" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 14.857142448425293px; font-weight: bold; padding-bottom: 3px;">
The Great Divide: King Cotton's Long Shadow</div>
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Slavery was crucial to the development of global capitalism.</div>
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<span style="line-height: 15.428571701049805px;">Great article about caspitalism and the end of slavery bailouts ...</span></div>
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Below is the article from New York Times / Opiniator</div>
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<a href="http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/30/king-cottons-long-shadow/?smid=pl-share" style="line-height: 15.428571701049805px;" target="_blank">king-cottons-long-shadow</a></div>
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kelM3HN6Rq8/UVnQInyXWVI/AAAAAAAAUhg/TUpFCgcKsmI/s1600/index.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="547" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kelM3HN6Rq8/UVnQInyXWVI/AAAAAAAAUhg/TUpFCgcKsmI/s640/index.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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Bertrand Clausell Wanclikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04191041643493515219noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2795452008788582877.post-69080927687342333252013-02-21T00:27:00.001-03:002013-02-21T00:27:30.965-03:00Petrobras not in a good technical shape<p class="mobile-photo"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Qrm_6hg3z5E/USWUJCxXuoI/AAAAAAAAUUA/agK64kB4sOE/s1600/petrobras-750965.png"><img src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Qrm_6hg3z5E/USWUJCxXuoI/AAAAAAAAUUA/agK64kB4sOE/s320/petrobras-750965.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5847242574294137474" /></a></p><div dir="ltr"><br> </div> Bertrand Clausell Wanclikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04191041643493515219noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2795452008788582877.post-76709889352597104962012-04-19T17:44:00.001-03:002012-04-19T17:44:20.755-03:00Personal Feud Closes $1.5B Hedge Fund<a href="http://www.nysun.com/business/personal-feud-closes-15b-hedge-fund/3937/#.T5B48sau5Us.blogger">Personal Feud Closes $1.5B Hedge Fund</a>Bertrand Clausell Wanclikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04191041643493515219noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2795452008788582877.post-67104729496320897552012-03-27T22:45:00.001-03:002012-03-27T22:45:21.566-03:00A question of intelligence - life - 26 March 2012 - New Scientist<a href="http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21328573.300-a-question-of-intelligence.html">A question of intelligence - life - 26 March 2012 - New Scientist</a>Bertrand Clausell Wanclikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04191041643493515219noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2795452008788582877.post-16269225969880646792012-03-15T20:50:00.001-03:002012-03-15T20:50:06.223-03:00AlvitoC<a href="http://soundcloud.com/alvitoc?utm_source=soundcloud&utm_campaign=share&utm_medium=blogger&utm_content=http://soundcloud.com/alvitoc">AlvitoC</a>Bertrand Clausell Wanclikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04191041643493515219noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2795452008788582877.post-52736354551462651812012-02-27T20:49:00.002-03:002012-02-27T20:49:25.697-03:00US: A Good Question<br />
<div class="bylineRegion" id="section">
Opinion</div>
<br />
<div class="nyt_headline" id="nyt_headline">
A Good Question</div>
<br />
<div class="byline" id="byline">
By <a class="meta-per" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/opinion/editorialsandoped/oped/columnists/thomaslfriedman/index.html?inline=nyt-per" rel="author" title="More Articles by Thomas L. Friedman">THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN</a></div>
<br />
<div class="timestamp" id="pubdate">
Published: February 25, 2012</div>
<br />
<div class="story" id="summary">
Something in the inbox recently reopened the debate
over who is responsible for higher oil prices.</div>
<br />
<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/26/opinion/sunday/friedman-a-good-question.html">http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/26/opinion/sunday/friedman-a-good-question.html</a>Bertrand Clausell Wanclikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04191041643493515219noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2795452008788582877.post-82845832141827898032012-01-23T12:00:00.000-02:002012-01-23T12:00:13.518-02:0011 good years for gold in usd2011: Another positive year for gold<br />
After a tumultuous year in financial markets around the world, gold was one of few asset classes to deliver positive returns. During 2011, the US dollar price of gold rose by 9% ending the year at US$1,531/oz based on the London PM fix, marking the 11th consecutive year of price increases. During the first part of January 2012, the price of goldcontinued its upward trend above the US$1,600/oz level.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.gold.org/investment/statistics/investment_statistics/">http://www.gold.org/investment/statistics/investment_statistics/</a>Bertrand Clausell Wanclikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04191041643493515219noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2795452008788582877.post-36950105272190437912011-11-07T19:13:00.001-02:002011-11-07T19:13:14.496-02:00cancer: tratamento infravermelho?<div class=""><div class="Amp_Content_Outer_Bookmark"><div class="Amp_Bookmark_Link">URL: <a rel="clipsource" target="_blank" title="http://www.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,luz-infravermelha-pode-ser-arma-contra-o-cancer-diz-estudo,795620,0.htm" href="http://www.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,luz-infravermelha-pode-ser-arma-contra-o-cancer-diz-estudo,795620,0.htm">http://www.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,luz-infraverme...</a></div></div></div><div class="Amp_Commentary_Wrap"><div class="Amp_Post_Text"><p>Para testar a combinação, os cientistas implantaram tumores nas costas de camundongos. Eles receberam a droga e foram expostos a raios infravermelhos.<br /><br /><br /><br />"O volume do tumor foi reduzido significativamente... em comparação com os camundongos não tratados e a sobrevivência foi prolongada", dizem os cientistas.</p></div></div><div class="Amp_Link">See this Amp at <a href="http://amplify.com/u/a1h40k">http://amplify.com/u/a1h40k</a></div><br/>Bertrand Clausell Wanclikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04191041643493515219noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2795452008788582877.post-75438037464589539662011-09-10T12:52:00.001-03:002011-09-10T12:52:57.192-03:00Lobster never age<div class=""><div class="Amp_Content_Outer_Bookmark"><div class="Amp_Bookmark_Link"><a rel="clipsource" target="_blank" title="http://clubs.calvin.edu/chimes/article.php?id=6006" href="http://clubs.calvin.edu/chimes/article.php?id=6006">http://clubs.calvin.edu/chimes/article.php?id=6006</a></div><div></div></div></div><div class="Amp_Commentary_Wrap"><div class="Amp_Post_Text"><p>In humans, cells that surpass the Hayflick Limit tend to become cancerous</p></div></div><div class="Amp_Link">See this Amp at <a href="http://amplify.com/u/a1coqn">http://amplify.com/u/a1coqn</a></div><br/>Bertrand Clausell Wanclikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04191041643493515219noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2795452008788582877.post-29479750827398767352011-09-07T11:41:00.001-03:002011-09-07T11:41:29.873-03:00WIRED: JPMorgan Uses Lego Minifigs to Explain the Euro Debt Crisis<div class=""><div class="Amp_Content_Outer_Bookmark"><div class="Amp_Bookmark_Link">URL: <a rel="clipsource" target="_blank" title="http://www.wired.com/geekdad/2011/09/jpmorgan/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+wired%2Findex+%28Wired%3A+Index+3+%28Top+Stories+2%29%29" href="http://www.wired.com/geekdad/2011/09/jpmorgan/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+wired%2Findex+%28Wired%3A+Index+3+%28Top+Stories+2%29%29">http://www.wired.com/geekdad/2011/09/jpmorgan/?utm_sour...</a></div></div></div><div class="Amp_Link">See this Amp at <a href="http://amplify.com/u/a1cjqr">http://amplify.com/u/a1cjqr</a></div><br/>Bertrand Clausell Wanclikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04191041643493515219noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2795452008788582877.post-53524311893783301882011-09-06T12:59:00.001-03:002011-09-06T12:59:52.621-03:00Gold China and Wikileaks : FNArena<div class=""><div class="Amp_Content_Outer_Bookmark"><div class="Amp_Bookmark_Link"><a rel="clipsource" target="_blank" title="http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=3723B97A-900D-A105-21DF4FAAF895B542" href="http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=3723B97A-900D-A105-21DF4FAAF895B542">http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=3723B97A...</a></div><div></div></div></div><div class="Amp_Link">See this Amp at <a href="http://amplify.com/u/a1chmg">http://amplify.com/u/a1chmg</a></div><br/>Bertrand Clausell Wanclikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04191041643493515219noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2795452008788582877.post-87775469122271486112011-09-01T13:09:00.001-03:002011-09-01T13:09:27.934-03:00Galaxy Tab 7.7: um avião androide<div class=""><div class="Amp_Content_Outer_Bookmark"><div class="Amp_Bookmark_Link">URL: <a rel="clipsource" target="_blank" title="http://www.gizmodo.com.br/conteudo/samsung-anuncia-tablet-galaxy-tab-de-77-polegadas-e-smartphone-galaxy-note-de-53-polegadas/" href="http://www.gizmodo.com.br/conteudo/samsung-anuncia-tablet-galaxy-tab-de-77-polegadas-e-smartphone-galaxy-note-de-53-polegadas/">http://www.gizmodo.com.br/conteudo/samsung-anuncia-tabl...</a></div></div></div><div class="Amp_Link">See this Amp at <a href="http://amplify.com/u/a1ca2r">http://amplify.com/u/a1ca2r</a></div><br/>Bertrand Clausell Wanclikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04191041643493515219noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2795452008788582877.post-38828101323570605832011-08-31T15:04:00.000-03:002011-08-31T15:04:45.642-03:00Convenience Yield<br />
<br />
<br />
Among the most important concepts of the “Theory of Storage” (see last week’s Weekly Commodities) is the “convenience yield”.<br />
<br />
Kaldor (1939) and Working (1948,1949) define the notion of convenience yield as a benefit that “accrues to the owner of the physical commodity but not to the holder of a forward contract.” Note that in the same spirit, the dividend yield is paid to the owner of a stock but not the holder of a derivative contract written on the stock. Brennan (1958) and Telser (1958) view the convenience yield as an “embedded timing option attached to the commodity” since inventory (e.g., a sugar storage facility) allows us to put the commodity on the on the commodity on the market when prices are high and hold it when prices are low. It also avoids the cost of<br />
manufacturing disruption or the nuisance of revisions of the production schedule.<br />
<br />
A substantial amount of recent research on commodities has chosen to model the convenience yield as a random quantity, allowing explanation of the various shapes of forward curves observed over time. Some authors (e.g., Gibson and Schwartz, 1990) view the convenience yield as an exogenous random variable. In contrast, Routledge et al. (2000) propose an equilibrium model for storable commodities in which the convenience yield appears as an inventory-dependent endogenous variable and allows one to make predictions about the volatilities of forward prices at different horizons.<br />
<br />
Given the importance of the inventory levels to determine the “convenience yield”, in the future we will analyse the relationship of inventory and commodity spot price volatility.<br />
<br />
<br />
Spot Forward Relationship for a storable commodity<br />
f T (t) = S(t)e(r− y)(T −t )<br />
Spot Forward Relationship for a dividend-paying stock<br />
FT (t) = S(t)e(r−g )(T −t )<br />
where:<br />
f T (t) = Commodity Forward price;<br />
FT (t) = Stock Forward Price;<br />
S(t) = Commodity Spot Price / Stock Price;<br />
r = Interest Rate;<br />
g = Dividend Yield;<br />
y = Convenience Yield;<br />
r = Maturity;<br />
t = Today;<br />
Bertrand Clausell Wanclikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04191041643493515219noreply@blogger.com0Itaim Bibi, São Paulo, Brasil-23.6 -46.685-23.624831 -46.701772500000004 -23.575169000000002 -46.6682275tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2795452008788582877.post-41161194176986360512011-08-25T14:18:00.000-03:002011-08-25T14:18:25.743-03:00http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000041364<a href="http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000041364">http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000041364</a>Bertrand Clausell Wanclikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04191041643493515219noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2795452008788582877.post-52727422077265448342011-08-24T10:16:00.000-03:002011-08-24T10:16:12.109-03:00Global Macro: Chile Codelco sees high copper prices for 2 years<br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">SANTIAGO, Aug 23 (Reuters) - Chile's state copper giant Codelco [CODEL.UL]</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">sees copper prices holding around current high levels for the next two</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">years, with some volatility, CFO Thomas Keller said on Tuesday.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Keller said global financial turmoil had not impacted the investment plans</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">of the world's top copper producer.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Copper is a real good proxy for development...</span><br />
Bertrand Clausell Wanclikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04191041643493515219noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2795452008788582877.post-61856013482362285542011-04-13T11:27:00.000-03:002011-04-13T11:27:48.043-03:00Club de l'Expansion: Alain Minc et la vision francaise<a class="BLOGGER-object-element tr_noresize tr_placeholder" data-original-id=""flashObj"" href="http://www.blogger.com/%3Cimg%20src=" http:="" id=""flashObj"" img2.blogblog.com="" img="" style="background-color: #b2b2b2; height: "270"px; width: "480"px;" video_object.png"="">"><object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=9,0,47,0" height="270" id="flashObj" width="480"><param name="movie" value="http://c.brightcove.com/services/viewer/federated_f9?isVid=1&isUI=1" /><param name="bgcolor" value="#FFFFFF" /><param name="flashVars" value="videoId=894677001001&playerID=111591373001&playerKey=AQ~~,AAAAF8iFk0k~,DLJz4w44-zp9kL3E7jvY3cNK_WF8C4lR&domain=embed&dynamicStreaming=true" /><param name="base" value="http://admin.brightcove.com" /><param name="seamlesstabbing" value="false" /><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /><param name="swLiveConnect" value="true" /><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always" /><embed src="http://c.brightcove.com/services/viewer/federated_f9?isVid=1&isUI=1" bgcolor="#FFFFFF" flashVars="videoId=894677001001&playerID=111591373001&playerKey=AQ~~,AAAAF8iFk0k~,DLJz4w44-zp9kL3E7jvY3cNK_WF8C4lR&domain=embed&dynamicStreaming=true" base="http://admin.brightcove.com" name="flashObj" width="480" height="270" seamlesstabbing="false" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" swLiveConnect="true" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/shockwave/download/index.cgi?P1_Prod_Version=ShockwaveFlash"></embed></object></a>Bertrand Clausell Wanclikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04191041643493515219noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2795452008788582877.post-31958702045930537862011-03-24T13:38:00.000-03:002011-03-24T13:41:57.355-03:00ALUMINUM RISES TO $2,645 A TON, HIGHEST SINCE SEPT.15, 2008<div><div class="gmail_quote"><br> From: NLRT ALERT (BLOOMBERG/ 731 LEXIN)<br> <br> *ALUMINUM RISES TO $2,645 A TON, HIGHEST SINCE SEPT. 15, 2008<br> <br> STORY TO FOLLOW. --CLAUDIA CARPENTER -0- Mar/24/2011 08:17 GMT<br> -------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br> BN (BLOOMBERG News).<br></div></div> Bertrand Clausell Wanclikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04191041643493515219noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2795452008788582877.post-67106732319374540752011-02-25T14:24:00.001-03:002011-02-25T14:24:47.406-03:00(BN) Qaddafi Cracks Down on Tripoli as Sarkozy Calls for Departure<div class="gmail_quote">Qaddafi Cracks Down on Tripoli as Sarkozy Calls for Departure<br> 2011-02-25 15:24:02.756 GMT<br> <br> <br> (See EXTRA for more news on the regional turmoil.)<br> <br> By Zainab Fattah, Gregory Viscusi and Benjamin Harvey<br> Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Muammar Qaddafi tried to tighten his<br> grip on Tripoli as French President Nicolas Sarkozy called on<br> him to resign amid reports that worshippers were being shot as<br> they left mosques after Friday prayers.<br> Several people were killed in the capital when security<br> forces loyal to Qaddafi fired on protesters after worship, Al<br> Arabiya television said, citing at least three eyewitnesses.<br> With governments struggling to get their citizens out of the<br> city, the U.K. said the route to Tripoli airport is no longer<br> safe. U.S. Senators John McCain and Joseph Lieberman called on<br> the Obama administration to back the rebels with weapons.<br> "France's position is clear, Mr. Qaddafi must go," Sarkozy<br> said at a news conference with Turkish President Abdullah Gul in<br> Ankara today. Sarkozy, the first leader of a major power to call<br> openly for Qaddafi's resignation, said intervention was not a<br> good option.<br> The prospect of civil war in North Africa's biggest oil<br> producer has pushed crude prices to a 2 1/2-year high, and led<br> to calls for intervention to stop the worst violence yet seen in<br> two months of spreading unrest across the Middle East and North<br> Africa. France and the U.K. will submit a plan for an arms<br> embargo and other sanctions against Libya at a meeting of the<br> United Nations Security Council today.<br> Qaddafi's regime is showing no signs of backing down.<br> Forces loyal to him today targeted people in Tripoli's Friday<br> market and in its Fashloom and Janzour areas, Al Arabiya said.<br> <br> 'Live and Die'<br> <br> "We have Plan A, Plan B and Plan C," Saif al-Islam<br> Qaddafi, the leader's son, told CNN-Turk television in an<br> interview from Tripoli. "Plan A is to live and die in Libya.<br> Plan B is to live and die in Libya. Plan C is to live and die in<br> Libya."<br> The eastern coastline stayed under the control of Qaddafi<br> opponents, who include defecting army units.<br> Oil headed for its biggest weekly gain in two years on<br> concern the turmoil that has cut Libya's output may spread to<br> other parts of the region. Crude for April delivery gained as<br> much as $1.92 to $99.20 a barrel in electronic trading on the<br> New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $96.60 a barrel at 1:42<br> p.m. London time. As many as 1 million barrels of the country's<br> daily output may have been stopped, according to a Feb. 23<br> estimate from Barclays Capital.<br> The production cuts were the first instance of crude<br> supplies being reduced by civil unrest in the region, where the<br> Egyptian and Tunisian presidents have been toppled.<br> <br> Central Squares<br> <br> Protesters surged into central squares across the Arab<br> world today to demand more rights two weeks after the ouster of<br> Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. Demonstrations took place in<br> Yemen, Jordan, Tunisia, Egypt and Iraq, with protesters in each<br> nation demanding more freedoms and more accountable governments.<br> Foreign leaders are trying to get their citizens out of<br> Tripoli as Qaddafi digs in. The security situation at Tripoli<br> airport was "deteriorating" and the journey there was<br> "becoming more precarious," the U.K. Foreign Office said in a<br> statement.<br> A U.S.-chartered ship left Tripoli for Malta today with<br> more than 300 passengers, more than half of them Americans, the<br> State Department said. The departure had been delayed by storms.<br> The U.K. reported evacuating 350 British nationals and<br> citizens of 25 other countries yesterday aboard planes and a<br> British frigate. Turkey has sent passenger ferries and a<br> military ship, and China chartered four passenger ships from<br> Greece and Malta and 100 buses from Egypt to move 4,600 of an<br> estimated 30,000 nationals in Libya.<br> <br> Asset Seizures<br> <br> "Britain, through the United Nations, is pressing for<br> asset seizures, for travel bans, for sanctions, for all of those<br> things we can do to hold those people to account, including<br> investigating for potential crimes against humanity," Prime<br> Minister David Cameron told reporters in London today.<br> French Foreign Minister Michele Alliot-Marie, speaking in<br> an interview on France Info radio, said the sanctions proposal<br> doesn't mention a no-fly zone over Libya, though "it's not<br> ruled out in the future." The North Atlantic Treaty<br> Organization was due to discuss the conflict in a meeting of<br> ambassadors at NATO headquarters in Brussels today.<br> There's "little chance" of military action by the<br> countries that would be capable of it, including the U.S., said<br> Jan Techau, an analyst at the NATO Defense College in Rome, in a<br> phone interview. "Once you intervene, you own the place. Who<br> do you back? Who are the warring factions? And how do you get<br> out? The fog of war is extremely dangerous."<br> <br> 'A Massacre'<br> <br> McCain and Lieberman, speaking at a press conference in<br> Jerusalem today, urged NATO countries to impose a no-fly zone on<br> Libyan airbases to prevent air attacks on the anti-Qaddafi<br> forces. Lieberman said they should get "military support to<br> complete the change of leadership."<br> Switzerland yesterday froze the assets of Qaddafi and his<br> entourage for three years. U.K. officials have identified<br> billions of pounds in assets held by Qaddafi in British banks<br> and are planning to freeze them, the Daily Telegraph reported,<br> citing an unidentified official with knowledge of the matter.<br> Qaddafi told state television yesterday that "drugged<br> kids" were responsible for the uprising, under incitement by<br> foreigners including al-Qaeda. Ambassadors and senior officials<br> from the judiciary have abandoned the regime, and one of the<br> leader's cousins and confidantes, Ahmed Qaddaf al-Dam, defected<br> to Egypt.<br> Libya, with a population of about 6.3 million, normally<br> pumps 1.6 million barrels of oil a day, selling most of it to<br> Europe, according to Bloomberg estimates. That's about 1.8<br> percent of world supply.<br> <br> For Related News and Information:<br> For news and data related to the regional crisis: MET <GO><br> Top Middle East news: TOP MIDEAST <GO><br> Top African news: TOP AFR <GO><br> <br> --With assistance from Alaa Shahine, Mariam Fam and Ola Galal in<br> Cairo, Eddie Buckle in London, Flavia Krause-Jackson in Rome,<br> Gregory Viscusi in Paris, Calev Ben-David and Gwen Ackerman in<br> Jerusalem, Leigh Baldwin in Zurich and John Simpson in Toronto.<br> Editors: Heather Langan, John Fraher.<br> <br> To contact the reporters on this story:<br> Benjamin Harvey in Istanbul at +90-312-438-8990 or<br> <a href="mailto:bharvey11@bloomberg.net">bharvey11@bloomberg.net</a>;<br> Zainab Fattah in Dubai at +971-4-364-1027 or<br> <a href="mailto:zfattah@bloomberg.net">zfattah@bloomberg.net</a>;<br> Maram Mazen in Cairo at +20-22-7330-7849 or<br> <a href="mailto:mmazen@bloomberg.net">mmazen@bloomberg.net</a>.<br> <br> To contact the editor responsible for this story:<br> Andrew J. Barden at +1-613-667-4804 or<br> <a href="mailto:barden@bloomberg.net">barden@bloomberg.net</a><br> </div><br> Bertrand Clausell Wanclikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04191041643493515219noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2795452008788582877.post-12684409059670946222011-02-23T14:01:00.001-03:002011-02-23T14:01:29.924-03:00Crude oil 5 month fwd average is rallying right now above 100 usd<p class="mobile-photo"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ytUpHLuBjgk/TWU9a5uJpXI/AAAAAAAAJZs/HzZYdA8oGKU/s1600/crude5-789925.png"><img src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ytUpHLuBjgk/TWU9a5uJpXI/AAAAAAAAJZs/HzZYdA8oGKU/s320/crude5-789925.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5576931245948511602" /></a></p>Crude oil 5 month fwd average 100 usd__________<br> Bertrand Clausell Wanclikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04191041643493515219noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2795452008788582877.post-68993627448196982522011-02-23T12:42:00.001-03:002011-02-23T12:42:43.226-03:00(BN) Oil May Surge to $220 If Libya, Algeria Halt, Nomura<div class="gmail_quote">Oil May Surge to $220 If Libya, Algeria Halt, Nomura Says (1)<br> 2011-02-23 14:18:55.782 GMT<br> <br> <br> (Updates with Nomura comments from third paragraph)<br> <br> By Grant Smith<br> Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Oil prices may surge to $220 a<br> barrel if political unrest in North Africa halts exports from<br> Libya and Algeria, Nomura Holdings Inc. said.<br> Crude futures rose to their highest in more than two years<br> in New York today as Libya's violent uprising threatened to<br> disrupt shipments from Africa's third-biggest supplier. The<br> commodity surged to $96.39 a barrel in New York, and to $108.42<br> in London. Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi vowed to fight a<br> growing rebellion until his "last drop of blood."<br> "If Libya and Algeria were to halt oil production<br> together, prices could peak above $220 a barrel and OPEC spare<br> capacity will be reduced to 2.1 million barrels a day, similar<br> to levels seen during the Gulf war and when prices hit $147 in<br> 2008," the Tokyo-based bank said in a note today.<br> The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has spare<br> production capacity of about 5 million barrels a day, according<br> to the International Energy Agency. Saudi Arabian Oil Minister<br> Ali al-Naimi said yesterday that the organization will boost<br> output if there is a shortage.<br> "The closest comparison is the 1990-1991 Gulf War,"<br> during which OPEC's spare capacity dropped to 1.8 million<br> barrels a day and prices surged 130 percent in seven months,<br> Nomura analysts led by Michael Lo in Hong Kong wrote.<br> Nomura said the $220 prediction may be an underestimate,<br> as speculative investors trading oil who were not active in the<br> early 1990s may amplify the price gain in the event of an<br> export halt.<br> Algeria produced 1.25 million barrels a day last month,<br> while Libya pumped 1.59 million a day, according to data<br> compiled by Bloomberg.<br> <br><br> <br> --Editors: Raj Rajendran, Grant Smith<br> <br> To contact the reporter on this story:<br> Grant Smith in London at +44-20-7330-7353 or<br> <a href="mailto:gsmith52@bloomberg.net">gsmith52@bloomberg.net</a><br> <br> To contact the editor responsible for this story:<br> Stephen Voss on +44-20-7073-3520 or <a href="mailto:sev@bloomberg.net">sev@bloomberg.net</a><br> </div><br> Bertrand Clausell Wanclikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04191041643493515219noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2795452008788582877.post-43087662956383197572011-02-18T10:54:00.001-02:002011-02-18T10:54:39.614-02:00(BN) Buffett Says Pricing Power More Important Than Good Management<div class="gmail_quote">Buffett Says Pricing Power More Important Than Good Management<br> 2011-02-18 05:00:03.3 GMT<br> <br> <br> By Andrew Frye and Dakin Campbell<br> Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett, the billionaire<br> chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., said he<br> rates businesses on their ability to raise prices and sometimes<br> doesn't even consider the people in charge.<br> <span class="Apple-style-span" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">"The single most important decision in evaluating a<br> business is pricing power,"</span> Buffett told the Financial Crisis<br> Inquiry Commission in an interview released by the panel last<br> week. "If you've got the power to raise prices without losing<br> business to a competitor, you've got a very good business. And<br> if you have to have a prayer session before raising the price by<br> 10 percent, then you've got a terrible business."<br> Buffett, 80, accumulated the world's third-largest personal<br> fortune through a career of stock picks and takeovers. He has<br> bought companies such as railroads and electricity producers,<br> whose pricing power stems from a dearth of competitive options<br> available to clients. Buffett has also built stakes in firms<br> like Coca-Cola Co. and Kraft Foods Inc., which rely on the<br> appeal of their brands to attract and keep customers.<br> "The extraordinary business does not require good<br> management," Buffett said in the interview, which was conducted<br> on May 26 in Omaha, Nebraska.<br> The FCIC investigators focused on Buffett's investment in<br> Moody's Corp., the bond-ratings firm blamed by lawmakers for<br> handing out inflated credit grades during the housing boom.<br> Buffett said he held stock in Moody's because the company's<br> leading market share, along with that of rival Standard &<br> Poor's, a subsidiary of McGraw-Hill Cos., gave the two firms<br> flexibility in setting prices.<br> <br> Pricing Power<br> <br> "I knew nothing about the management of Moody's," said<br> Buffett. "If you own the only newspaper in town, up until the<br> last five years or so, you had pricing power and you didn't have<br> to go to the office."<br> A dominant position can't prevent a bad manager from<br> destroying a company over time, said Benjamin E. Hermalin, a<br> professor of economics at the University of California,<br> Berkeley's Haas School of Business.<br> "If you have a really dominant position you can survive<br> for quite a long time with bad management but eventually it will<br> catch up to you," said Hermalin. "In the short run I would<br> agree with Buffett but in the longer-run perspective there is<br> something to be said for having a good manager."<br> Burlington Northern Santa Fe, the railroad Buffett bought<br> last year for $26.5 billion, owns more than 30,000 miles of<br> track across the U.S. West connecting producers and distributors<br> of coal, grain and consumer goods. Omaha-based Berkshire's power<br> company, MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co., sells electricity to<br> homes in the Great Plains and transports natural gas from<br> Wyoming to California.<br> <br> Praise From Buffett<br> <br> Buffett routinely singles out and praises managers from<br> Berkshire's more than 70 operating companies. MidAmerican<br> Chairman David Sokol and Gregory Abel, the unit's CEO, are "two<br> terrific managers," Buffett said last year in his letter to<br> shareholders. The acquisition of Burlington Northern had the<br> "additional virtue" of bringing the railroad's CEO, Matthew<br> Rose, to Berkshire, Buffett said.<br> Buffett criticized Kraft Chief Executive Officer Irene<br> Rosenfeld last year for her takeover of Cadbury Plc and the sale<br> of the foodmaker's pizza brands. "Both deals were dumb,"<br> Buffett told Berkshire investors in May. Berkshire is the<br> biggest shareholder of Kraft with a stake valued at $3.3 billion<br> at the end of December.<br> "In the short run, good management can make a stock pop<br> but I follow what Warren's saying, especially because his point<br> of view looks at the fundamentals," said Terry Connelly, dean<br> of the Ageno School of Business at Golden Gate University in San<br> Francisco, and a former managing director at Salomon Brothers.<br> "Good management can't do anything with a bad case."<br> <br> For Related News and Information:<br> Government rescue programs: RESQ <GO><br> Berkshire's equity holdings: BRK/A US <Equity> PHDC5 <GO><br> Buffett-related audio & video: BRK/A US <Equity> TCNI AV <GO><br> More on Buffett: BIO WARREN BUFFETT <GO><br> <br> --With assistance from April Lee and Noah Buhayar in New York.<br> Editors: Dan Reichl, Andreea Papuc.<br> <br> To contact the reporters on this story:<br> Andrew Frye in New York at +1-212-617-1869 or<br> <a href="mailto:afrye@bloomberg.net">afrye@bloomberg.net</a>;<br> Dakin Campbell in San Francisco at +1-415-617-7174 or<br> <a href="mailto:dcampbell27@bloomberg.net">dcampbell27@bloomberg.net</a><br> <br> To contact the editor responsible for this story:<br> Dan Kraut at +1-212-617-2432 or <a href="mailto:dkraut2@bloomberg.net">dkraut2@bloomberg.net</a><br> Rick Green at +1-212-617-5804 or<br> <a href="mailto:rgreen18@bloomberg.net">rgreen18@bloomberg.net</a><br> </div><br> Bertrand Clausell Wanclikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04191041643493515219noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2795452008788582877.post-84815785264931120772011-02-17T14:50:00.001-02:002011-02-17T14:50:48.434-02:00SILVER RISES 2% TO $31.265 AN OUNCE, HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 1980<p class="mobile-photo"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-a7BpBOg_EjE/TV1R6u8k9jI/AAAAAAAAJY8/yvDhlO323jg/s1600/SILVER-748435.png"><img src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-a7BpBOg_EjE/TV1R6u8k9jI/AAAAAAAAJY8/yvDhlO323jg/s320/SILVER-748435.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5574701983230916146" /></a></p><br> Bertrand Clausell Wanclikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04191041643493515219noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2795452008788582877.post-80670944340207261582011-02-17T11:01:00.001-02:002011-02-17T11:01:23.088-02:00(BN) BMW at $260,000 as Singapore Tax Keeps Cars for Rich<div class="gmail_quote">BMW at $260,000 as Singapore Tax Keeps Cars for Rich (Update2)<br> 2011-02-17 07:42:21.578 GMT<br> <br> <br> (Adds government's GDP forecast in eighth paragraph.)<br> <br> By Kristine Aquino<br> Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Francis Goh sits in a bronze BMW<br> 335i convertible in a Singapore showroom, waggling the wheel and<br> feeling the leather. He isn't fazed by the S$340,000 ($260,000)<br> price tag, five times what the same car costs in the U.S.<br> "I see the price of a BMW, to me it's reasonable," said<br> Goh, adding that he may instead go for a Mercedes-Benz E200 or<br> Audi A5 to replace his Subaru Impreza WRX.<br> Record economic growth in the city state is enabling buyers<br> like Goh, a 34-year-old financial industry worker, to splash out<br> on Bayerische Motoren Werke AG and Daimler AG autos even as a<br> 24-fold jump in the cost of a car permit inflates costs. As the<br> government cuts the number of new autos on sale, prices which<br> are already among the highest globally look set to rise further.<br> Singapore has increased spending on public transport and<br> reduced the number of new car licenses to rein in auto sales and<br> curb pollution and congestion as the booming economy boosts the<br> buying power of the country's residents. Last year, Prime<br> Minister Lee Hsien Loong promised to spend S$60 billion over 10<br> years to double the size of the subway network.<br> "High customer disposable incomes" are spurring demand<br> for cars in Singapore, said Vivek Vaidya, automotive and<br> transportation director at researcher Frost & Sullivan. The<br> reduction in permits "is bound to put the prices in upward<br> spiral."<br> <br> Taxing Licenses<br> <br> Car buyers in Singapore must pay for excise and<br> registration duties of about 150 percent of the vehicle's market<br> value, as well as bid for a limited number of government<br> permits, called certificates of entitlement, that allow a car on<br> the road for 10 years. The cost of a permit alone would now buy<br> a new Porsche Boxster in the U.S., or a C-Class Mercedes in Hong<br> Kong, where curbside pollution rose to a record last year.<br> Singapore posted 14.5 percent economic growth last year,<br> based on the government's revised figures today, swelling the<br> ranks of the city's millionaires by 35 percent. The country has<br> the highest proportion of millionaire households at 11.4<br> percent, according to the Boston Consulting Group. On top of<br> that, the population has grown 23 percent in the past decade,<br> adding to congestion in a country about the size of Chicago.<br> The government today kept its forecast for the economy to<br> grow 4 percent to 6 percent in 2011, even as there's "some<br> upside potential" to the target.<br> <br> Fewer Permits<br> <br> The Ministry of Transport has cut the number of new-car<br> permits it auctions twice a month, driving the price of the so-<br> called open-category COE, which can be used for any size of car,<br> to an average S$71,339 in January. That permit cost S$19,889 at<br> the beginning of 2010 and as little as S$3,000 two years ago.<br> Once the certificate expires, owners either have to bid for a<br> new 10-year permit, export the car, or scrap it.<br> Government figures show Singapore's air pollutant levels in<br> the last five years have been as much as 88 percent below the<br> limits recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.<br> Hong Kong's levels in the same period exceeded the limits by as<br> much as 12 percent.<br> The government has said it aims to make public transport<br> the "choice mode" for Singaporeans. The Ministry of Transport<br> spent S$17.8 billion in the past five years to build two more<br> subway lines, 37 more train stations and a five-kilometer<br> expressway by 2013.<br> New-car quotas are based on a "sustainable" growth rate,<br> according to the ministry's website. Only about 15 percent of<br> people own a car in Singapore, compared with 82 percent in the<br> U.S., World Bank figures show.<br> <br> Cash Upfront<br> <br> A higher COE price tends to hurt sales of cheaper cars more<br> than luxury models because it accounts for a bigger percentage<br> of the total cost.<br> "If we stick to Japanese cars and the budget-constrained<br> segment, we are not going to make money," said Dennis Lim,<br> owner of dealership Auto Equator, which sells brands such as<br> Jaguar and Mercedes-Benz, as well as Isuzu. For high-end autos,<br> "the extra S$20,000 to S$30,000 on the COE is nothing when the<br> total car price is S$300,000 or more. They're not so price-<br> sensitive."<br> Luxury car brands including Aston Martin, Porsche and Fiat<br> SpA's Ferrari saw sales surge as much as 115 percent last year,<br> the Straits Times reported on Jan. 28. Overall auto sales dipped<br> to 42,000 units, less than half the annual average in the past<br> five years, the newspaper said.<br> "Our biggest hurdle is for customers to get over the<br> upfront cash they will have to fork out to purchase the car,"<br> said Ron Lim, general manager at Tan Chong Motor Sales Pte Ltd.,<br> Singapore's official distributor of Nissan cars.<br> <br> 'Choice is Made'<br> <br> With up to 95 percent of his customers being middle-class<br> Singaporean families, Tan Chong's Lim said his challenge this<br> year will be to sell the same number of cars as last year.<br> "Car dealers in Singapore have to make a choice: either<br> they attract higher-end or lower-end customers," Vaidya said.<br> "Considering that they can only have a finite number of cars on<br> the road, the choice is made."<br> Part of the reason for a jump in permit prices is reduced<br> supply. After the ministry announced a total quota of 23,063 for<br> August 2010 to January 2011, the open COE surged to a record<br> $76,102 in December. In the latest tender over the lunar new<br> year holiday, the price fell to S$58,890. For February to July<br> this year, the ministry reduced the quota to 22,368<br> certificates.<br> While new car distributors may struggle to replicate last<br> year's sales numbers, used car dealers such as Gary Hong,<br> general manager at Autobahn Motors, are enjoying new business.<br> <br> Rising Demand<br> <br> "The demand for used cars has gone up," said Hong, whose<br> stocks included a pre-owned 2008 BMW 335i convertible, which he<br> sold two days ago for more than S$300,000. "The COE for new<br> cars has been going for more money. Those people who choose not<br> to pay the premium, they go for used cars as an option."<br> <span class="Apple-style-span" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">With a new Toyota Motor Corp. Yaris costing about $68,000<br> in Singapore, compared with $15,300 in New York and $18,100 in<br> London, some are reluctant to buy at all.<br> "I'm having second thoughts about buying a car," said<br> Stephan Ritzmann, 48, a Swiss executive at a local luxury watch<br> retailer who moved to Singapore from Tokyo in December. "In<br> Switzerland, cars cost less than half of what they cost here.<br> The government wants us to use public transport and it works<br> pretty well."</span><br> For Singaporeans like Goh, who are used to the high tax<br> system and can afford the cost, car ownership remains important.<br> "I don't care how much the COE costs," said Goh, whose<br> five previous cars were all Japanese. "Owning a car to me is<br> not just about prestige -- like, wow, I'm able to own a car in<br> Singapore! For me, a car is for convenience."<br> <br> For Related News and Information:<br> Most-read stories on Singapore's economy: MNI SECO <GO><br> Singapore's inflation rate: SICPIYOY <Index> HP <GO><br> News search on retail sales: STNI RETSALES <GO><br> Singapore COE prices: NI COE <GO><br> <br> --Editors: Lars Klemming, Adam Majendie<br> <br> To contact the reporter on this story:<br> Kristine Aquino in Singapore at +65-6212-1550 or<br> <a href="mailto:kaquino1@bloomberg.net">kaquino1@bloomberg.net</a><br> <br> To contact the editor responsible for this story:<br> Lars Klemming at +65-6212-1150 or <a href="mailto:lklemming@bloomberg.net">lklemming@bloomberg.net</a><br> </div><br> Bertrand Clausell Wanclikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04191041643493515219noreply@blogger.com0