CCI - a hora da verdade

Breve em seu cinema mais proximo

BRL monthly saying bye-bye to 2 / 1 brl

Rumo ao 1.50

Ibov em Dolares, Euros e Reais

Monthly Ibovespa charts

(BN) Brazil Rating Raised to Investment Grade by Moody’s

BOOM BOOM BOOM 

Brazil Rating Raised to Investment Grade by Moody's (Update3)
2009-09-22 21:42:09.184 GMT


    (Adds Mantega in eighth, ninth paragraphs.)

By Helder Marinho and Catarina Saraiva
    Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's credit rating was raised
to investment grade by Moody's Investors Service after Latin
America's largest economy built record foreign reserves and
averted a prolonged recession amid the global financial crisis.
    Moody's cited Brazil's "strong economic and financial
resilience" during the worldwide slowdown as it raised the
rating one level to Baa3, the lowest investment grade. The
upgrade came a year after Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings
increased their ratings for Brazil above junk. Moody's assigned
a positive outlook, signaling it may lift the rating again.
    Brazil's Bovespa stock index rose to a 14-month high and
the currency jumped the most in a month. The country's foreign
reserves climbed to $223 billion from a low during the crisis of
$199 billion on Feb. 26 as prices for its commodity exports
rebounded and investors poured money into the stock and bond
markets, encouraged by President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's
stimulus measures. Reserves were $74 billion three years ago.
   "The world is pulling out of the crisis and the country
came through it displaying a strong resilience," said Roberto
Padovani, chief strategist at Banco WestLB do Brasil in Sao
Paulo. The upgrade "consolidates a scenario of low risk for
Brazil and it comes at a very important moment," he said.

                           Real Gains

    Brazil's currency is up 29 percent against the dollar this
year, the second-best performance among the 16 major currencies
after the South African rand. Gross domestic product will shrink
0.4 percent this year, compared with a 7 percent contraction in
Mexico, according to the median forecasts in Bloomberg economist
surveys.
    Brazil's ability to pull through the global financial
crisis "points to a material improvement in Brazil's sovereign
credit profile," Mauro Leos, Moody's regional credit officer
for Latin America, said in a statement.
   Moody's "was waiting to see how Brazil was going to come
out from this crisis, whether the crisis was going to be more
profound and in the end it wasn't," said Pablo Goldberg, head
of Latin American fixed-income strategy at HSBC Securities in
New York. "The data shows that Brazil has turned the corner."
    Finance Minister Guido Mantega, speaking to reporters
outside of the Moody's office in New York today, said it was
"much more significant" that the rating company took the
action one year after credit markets seized up than if it had
upgraded while the global economy was growing.
    The decision "is a recognition of the efficiency with
which" Brazil's economy is being managed, Mantega said. With
three investment grade ratings, Brazil will be able to attract
more pension fund money to its bond market, he said.
    Brazil is the second country in South America after Chile
to have an investment grade rating from Moody's.

                         Stocks Rebound

    The benchmark Bovespa stock index has advanced 64 percent
this year, reversing last year's record 41 percent tumble, as
the central bank cut the benchmark lending rate to a record low
of 8.75 percent to shore up the economy.
    The extra yield investors demand to own Brazil's dollar-
denominated bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries has narrowed to
2.20 percentage points from 4.65 percentage points on Jan. 15,
according to JPMorgan Chase Co.
    The Bovespa index gained 0.9 percent today to 61,484.89,
the highest since July 2008. The real climbed as much as 1.9
percent to 1.791 per dollar, the strongest in a year. Brazilian
bond yields slid for the first time in six days.

--With assistance from Fabiola Moura in New York. Editors: David
Papadopoulos, Laura Zelenko

For Related News and Information:
Top Stories:TOP<GO>
Top Latin America stories: TOPL<GO>
Top emerging-market stories: <TOP EM<GO>}

To contact the reporter on this story:
Catarina Saraiva in New York at +1-212-617-2300 or
asaraiva5@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
David Papadopoulos at +1-212-617-5105 or
papadopoulos@bloomberg.net

Re: euro au plus haut

vai passar de 1.60 contra o dolar

acho que o real nos prox 18 meses atinge 1.25 usd ou 2 reais contra o Eur

pode anotar

2009/9/16 wanclik tade <wanclikt@yahoo.fr>

http://fr.biz.yahoo.com/16092009/290/l-euro-un-plus-haut-de-neuf-mois-face-au.html

 

Veuillez agréer l'expression de mes salutations distinguées.

Best regards

Commodities

confirmando trend de alta

CCI INDEX mensal porrando

CCI apontando pra cima novamente.....adoro essas commodities....carne puxando nos eua....e ethanol tb...

nos eua e no mundo , vamos lembrar...

cambio cede blw 1.80 ... rumo 1.25....

(BN) Mobius Spurns Brazil Share Offers as Gol Seeks Sale:

Mobius Spurns Brazil Share Offers as Gol Seeks Sale: Week Ahead
2009-09-08 03:00:01.3 GMT


By Telma Marotto and Francisco Marcelino

    Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Brazilian companies lining up to sell stock after this year's 51 percent surge in the Bovespa index are offering "low quality," overpriced shares, said Templeton Asset Management Ltd.'s Mark Mobius.
    At least 11 companies filed to sell equity in Brazil since July 31, including Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes SA, the nation's second-biggest airline, and Rossi Residencial SA, the sixth-largest homebuilder by assets. Only one company, the iron ore producer now known as Vale SA, sold stock in the second half
of 2008 before an eight-month drought in offerings.
    "The new share sales that are coming out in Brazil are of relatively low quality and priced far above fair value,"
Mobius, who oversees about $25 billion as Templeton's executive chairman, wrote Sept. 2 in an e-mail response to questions. "We are not planning to buy any of the pending offerings we have seen thus far but it all depends on the final pricing."
    Brazilian companies are returning to the market as stocks rally on prospects record-low interest rates and rising prices for the country's commodity exports will fuel growth in Latin America's largest economy. The national statistics agency, known as IBGE, will say on Sept. 11 that gross domestic product grew
between April and June for the first time in three quarters, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
    The Bovespa's gain sent the valuation for the benchmark index last month to 24 times the reported earnings of its companies, the highest in at least five years. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fetches 19.3 times profit.    "I can't see right now anything that makes me think valuations will go up more than this," said Carlos Camacho, who helps manage about 3 billion reais ($1.6 billion) at GAP Asset Management in Rio de Janeiro.

                         Pending IPOs

    Share sales pending in Sao Paulo include initial public offerings of Rio-based Cetip SA - Balcao Organizado de Ativos &Derivativos, Brazil's biggest clearing house; Tivit Terceirizacao de Tecnologia e Servicos SA, a Sao Paulo-based
computer-services company; and Direcional Engenharia SA, a homebuilder based in Belo Horizonte. They follow Cia. Brasileira de Meios de Pagamento, the processor of Visa Inc. payments known as VisaNet, which raised 8.4 billion reais in a June IPO that set a record in Brazil.
    Cetip, Tivit and Direcional declined to comment on their sales because of the so-called quiet period before the offering, according to spokeswomen for the companies.
    Barueri-based VisaNet's initial share sale was the first in a year. There were only four new listings in 2008 as the global financial crisis deepened, compared with a record 64 in 2007. Almost 80 percent of the IPOs in Brazil since the beginning of 2006 trade below their offering price, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg.

                           'Cautious'

    "In the past, the way to do well from deals in Brazil was to be very demanding in valuation and very skeptical and only participating in a few deals," said Urban Larson, a Latin America portfolio manager at F&C Management Ltd. in London, who oversees about $450 million in shares. "There's some very good companies that have gone public in Brazil in the last few years and it's possible to do quite well, but it's also a good idea to be cautious in looking at these deals."
    Alberto Kiraly, a vice president for the National Investment Bank Association in Sao Paulo, said companies selling shares now will benefit from the country's economic rebound.
    "All these companies should appreciate as they are closely linked to local demand," Kiraly said. "And the economic prospects suggest higher consumption and more credit available for purchases."

                        Economic Growth

    Brazil's GDP grew 1.7 percent in the second quarter from the previous period, according to the median estimate of 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. It will shrink 0.3 percent in 2009 before expanding 4 percent next year, a central bank survey of 100 economists published Aug. 31 showed. That's more than economists' 2010 growth forecasts for Chile, Mexico and
Argentina, according to Bloomberg data.
    "People selling those shares see an opportunity to obtain a high price at this time when sentiment is bullish," Mobius, 73, wrote in the e-mail. The Singapore-based investor, voted among the "Top Ten Money Managers of the 20th Century" by the Carson Group, said in July that Brazil is his top pick among
emerging-market countries after China. He declined to comment on
specific companies offering shares.
    Companies selling stock "offer good opportunities for investors who want to be exposed to Brazilian local economy," said Guilherme Figueiredo, who helps oversee 1.7 billion reais as director at M Safra & Co. in Sao Paulo. "That said, I still think that the market is very sensitive and investors will look carefully into each company to assess valuation, earnings."

                           Rossi, Gol

    Rossi, up 217 percent this year, is trading 52 percent below the 25 reais price at which it sold shares in February 2006. The Sao Paulo-based company said Sept. 1 it plans to sell up to 600 million reais of common stock. Three analysts rate Rossi a "buy," six rate it "hold" and two recommend selling the shares, according to Bloomberg data.
    Gol, which said on Aug. 25 it is seeking to raise up to 650 million reais in a share sale, is down 32 percent since selling shares for 26.57 reais in a June 2004 initial offering. It has three analyst "buy" ratings, two "holds" and two "sells."
    Sao Paulo-based Gol and Rossi said in e-mailed statements that they can't comment on the share sales, citing the quiet period.
    "There's been a housing boom, an airline boom, an everything boom in Brazil since 2006 and here they are raising money below what they raised in the past," said Christopher Palmer, who oversees about $5 billion as Gartmore Investment Management Ltd.'s London-based head of global emerging markets. "How would you feel if you were one of those investors who
invested in 2006?"

                            Markets

    The Bovespa index fell 1.8 percent to 56,652.28 last week, led by Banco Nossa Caixa SA, which dropped 8.9 percent. MMX Mineracao e Metalicos SA gained the most in the measure,advancing 5.5 percent.
    The yield on the local-currency zero-coupon bonds due January 2011 fell three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 9.8 percent in the week. The real gained 2 percent to 1.8442 per U.S. dollar from 1.8812 on Aug. 28.

The following is a list of events in Brazil this week:

*T
Event                                                  Date
FGV CPI IPC-S Inflation Index - Weekly                 Sep 8
Weekly Trade Balance                                   Sep 8
FIPE Consumer Price Index - Weekly                     Sep 9
FGV IGP-DI Inflation Index - August                    Sep 9
CNI Capacity Utilization - July                        Sep 9
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes                        Sep 10
IBGE Inflation Index IPCA - August                     Sep 10
FGV Preview Inflation IGP-M - Sep. 10                  Sep 11
Gross Domestic Product - 2nd Quarter                   Sep 11
*T

--Editors: Kara Wetzel, David Papadopoulos

To contact the reporter on this story:
Telma Marotto in Sao Paulo at +55-11-3048-4640 or
tmarotto1@bloomberg.net;
Francisco Marcelino in Sao Paulo at +55-11-3048-4643 or
mdeoliveira@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
David Papadopoulos in New York at +1-212-617-5105 or
papadopoulos@bloomberg.net

Re: LES PRESIDENTS DE LA REPUBLIQUE DE LA FRANCE ET DU BRESIL

http://delicious.com/bwanclik

2009/9/9 Bertrand Wanclik <bertrand.wanclik@gmail.com>

Publié le 07-09-09 à 16:53     Allocution de M. le Président de la République devant la communauté française   Résidence de France à Brasilia – Lundi 7 septembre 2009 Mesdames et Messieurs, Je voudrais vous dire le bonheur qui est le mien d'être au Brésil pour la deuxième fois cette année, accompagné d'une très importante délégation, j'y reviendrai, de ministres, de chefs d'entreprises. Vous avez choisi le Brésil et il se trouve que moi aussi, parce que je suis persuadé que le Brésil est un partenaire incontournable pour la France. C'est un géant qui doit jouer un plus grand rôle dans les équilibres du monde. C'est un peuple fier qui doit être davantage considéré à la mesure de ce qu'il apporte à l'économie, à la stabilité du monde, à la culture. C'est un géant démographique. C'est un géant en superficie et politiquement, c'est un partenaire indispensable pour la France. Nous avons décidé depuis 2 ans et demi avec le Président Lula de signer un partenariat stratégique qui ne soit pas simplement, comme si souvent, une addition de mots mais témoigne chaque jour d'une réalité. Mes chers compatriotes du Brésil, Il faut bien que vous compreniez que désormais, sur la scène mondiale, la France et le Brésil harmonisent tous leurs choix politiques. Je suis convaincu que l'organisation du monde d'aujourd'hui est obsolète, qu'elle est injuste, qu'il n'est pas raisonnable de vouloir régler les affaires du monde sans tenir compte d'un continent comme l'Amérique latine, d'un continent comme l'Afrique ou d'un pays continent comme l'Inde. La France réclame pour le Brésil une place de membre permanent du Conseil de sécurité. Il faut que nous obtenions la réforme de la gouvernance mondiale, et que nos amis brésiliens comprennent que le jour où ils auront toute leur place, tous leurs droits, ils devront assumer tous leurs devoirs, les devoirs d'une grande puissance. Il ne faut pas s'étonner que ceux que l'on appelle les pays émergents n'aient pas toujours la volonté d'assumer leur responsabilité à partir du moment où ils ont le sentiment, jour après jour, de ne pas être considérés à la juste proportion de ce qu'ils représentent sur le théâtre du monde. C'est quelque chose auquel je crois profondément, je le dis pour le Brésil, je le pense pour l'Inde, je le pense pour un pays comme l'Afrique du Sud, bien sûr la Chine qui a des demandes permanentes, mais je refuse une organisation qui laisserait à penser que les grands dossiers du monde puissent se régler dans un dialogue avec les 8 du G8, ignorant tous ces pays du XXIe siècle. La France a été trop absente et lorsque l'on a été présent, c'était sympathique, on donnait toujours beaucoup d'affection mais parfois on décevait en ne tenant pas nos engagements. C'est très important pour moi cette quatrième rencontre bilatérale avec le Président Lula depuis le début de l'année, le deuxième voyage, parce que nous avons besoin des Brésiliens et les Brésiliens savent qu'ils peuvent [...]   TÉLÉCHARGER

--
-----

Bertrand Clausell Wanclik (GMAIL)
http://trendsniffer.blogspot.com
http://kuizine.blogspot.com
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/0/b55/631  
+55 11 9955-6390
__________________________________
Sent from São Paulo, Brasil
Ted Turner  - "Sports is like a war without the killing."

Re: LES PRESIDENTS DE LA REPUBLIQUE DE LA FRANCE ET DU BRESIL

Abre uma conta e cria sua nuvem de ideias no delicious....depois vc pode linkar ao seu blog como eu fiz.....beijos

http://delicious.com/

2009/9/9 Bertrand Wanclik <bertrand.wanclik@gmail.com>

Publié le 07-09-09 à 16:53     Allocution de M. le Président de la République devant la communauté française   Résidence de France à Brasilia – Lundi 7 septembre 2009 Mesdames et Messieurs, Je voudrais vous dire le bonheur qui est le mien d'être au Brésil pour la deuxième fois cette année, accompagné d'une très importante délégation, j'y reviendrai, de ministres, de chefs d'entreprises. Vous avez choisi le Brésil et il se trouve que moi aussi, parce que je suis persuadé que le Brésil est un partenaire incontournable pour la France. C'est un géant qui doit jouer un plus grand rôle dans les équilibres du monde. C'est un peuple fier qui doit être davantage considéré à la mesure de ce qu'il apporte à l'économie, à la stabilité du monde, à la culture. C'est un géant démographique. C'est un géant en superficie et politiquement, c'est un partenaire indispensable pour la France. Nous avons décidé depuis 2 ans et demi avec le Président Lula de signer un partenariat stratégique qui ne soit pas simplement, comme si souvent, une addition de mots mais témoigne chaque jour d'une réalité. Mes chers compatriotes du Brésil, Il faut bien que vous compreniez que désormais, sur la scène mondiale, la France et le Brésil harmonisent tous leurs choix politiques. Je suis convaincu que l'organisation du monde d'aujourd'hui est obsolète, qu'elle est injuste, qu'il n'est pas raisonnable de vouloir régler les affaires du monde sans tenir compte d'un continent comme l'Amérique latine, d'un continent comme l'Afrique ou d'un pays continent comme l'Inde. La France réclame pour le Brésil une place de membre permanent du Conseil de sécurité. Il faut que nous obtenions la réforme de la gouvernance mondiale, et que nos amis brésiliens comprennent que le jour où ils auront toute leur place, tous leurs droits, ils devront assumer tous leurs devoirs, les devoirs d'une grande puissance. Il ne faut pas s'étonner que ceux que l'on appelle les pays émergents n'aient pas toujours la volonté d'assumer leur responsabilité à partir du moment où ils ont le sentiment, jour après jour, de ne pas être considérés à la juste proportion de ce qu'ils représentent sur le théâtre du monde. C'est quelque chose auquel je crois profondément, je le dis pour le Brésil, je le pense pour l'Inde, je le pense pour un pays comme l'Afrique du Sud, bien sûr la Chine qui a des demandes permanentes, mais je refuse une organisation qui laisserait à penser que les grands dossiers du monde puissent se régler dans un dialogue avec les 8 du G8, ignorant tous ces pays du XXIe siècle. La France a été trop absente et lorsque l'on a été présent, c'était sympathique, on donnait toujours beaucoup d'affection mais parfois on décevait en ne tenant pas nos engagements. C'est très important pour moi cette quatrième rencontre bilatérale avec le Président Lula depuis le début de l'année, le deuxième voyage, parce que nous avons besoin des Brésiliens et les Brésiliens savent qu'ils peuvent [...]   TÉLÉCHARGER

--
-----

Bertrand Clausell Wanclik (GMAIL)
http://trendsniffer.blogspot.com
http://kuizine.blogspot.com
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/0/b55/631  
+55 11 9955-6390
__________________________________
Sent from São Paulo, Brasil
Charles de Gaulle  - "The better I get to know men, the more I find myself loving dogs."

LES PRESIDENTS DE LA REPUBLIQUE DE LA FRANCE ET DU BRESIL

Publié le 07-09-09 à 16:53     Allocution de M. le Président de la République devant la communauté française   Résidence de France à Brasilia – Lundi 7 septembre 2009 Mesdames et Messieurs, Je voudrais vous dire le bonheur qui est le mien d'être au Brésil pour la deuxième fois cette année, accompagné d'une très importante délégation, j'y reviendrai, de ministres, de chefs d'entreprises. Vous avez choisi le Brésil et il se trouve que moi aussi, parce que je suis persuadé que le Brésil est un partenaire incontournable pour la France. C'est un géant qui doit jouer un plus grand rôle dans les équilibres du monde. C'est un peuple fier qui doit être davantage considéré à la mesure de ce qu'il apporte à l'économie, à la stabilité du monde, à la culture. C'est un géant démographique. C'est un géant en superficie et politiquement, c'est un partenaire indispensable pour la France. Nous avons décidé depuis 2 ans et demi avec le Président Lula de signer un partenariat stratégique qui ne soit pas simplement, comme si souvent, une addition de mots mais témoigne chaque jour d'une réalité. Mes chers compatriotes du Brésil, Il faut bien que vous compreniez que désormais, sur la scène mondiale, la France et le Brésil harmonisent tous leurs choix politiques. Je suis convaincu que l'organisation du monde d'aujourd'hui est obsolète, qu'elle est injuste, qu'il n'est pas raisonnable de vouloir régler les affaires du monde sans tenir compte d'un continent comme l'Amérique latine, d'un continent comme l'Afrique ou d'un pays continent comme l'Inde. La France réclame pour le Brésil une place de membre permanent du Conseil de sécurité. Il faut que nous obtenions la réforme de la gouvernance mondiale, et que nos amis brésiliens comprennent que le jour où ils auront toute leur place, tous leurs droits, ils devront assumer tous leurs devoirs, les devoirs d'une grande puissance. Il ne faut pas s'étonner que ceux que l'on appelle les pays émergents n'aient pas toujours la volonté d'assumer leur responsabilité à partir du moment où ils ont le sentiment, jour après jour, de ne pas être considérés à la juste proportion de ce qu'ils représentent sur le théâtre du monde. C'est quelque chose auquel je crois profondément, je le dis pour le Brésil, je le pense pour l'Inde, je le pense pour un pays comme l'Afrique du Sud, bien sûr la Chine qui a des demandes permanentes, mais je refuse une organisation qui laisserait à penser que les grands dossiers du monde puissent se régler dans un dialogue avec les 8 du G8, ignorant tous ces pays du XXIe siècle. La France a été trop absente et lorsque l'on a été présent, c'était sympathique, on donnait toujours beaucoup d'affection mais parfois on décevait en ne tenant pas nos engagements. C'est très important pour moi cette quatrième rencontre bilatérale avec le Président Lula depuis le début de l'année, le deuxième voyage, parce que nous avons besoin des Brésiliens et les Brésiliens savent qu'ils peuvent [...]   TÉLÉCHARGER

(BN) China Growing 9.5% Evident as New Vehicle Sales Soar

China Growing 9.5% Evident as New Vehicle Sales Soar (Update1)
2009-09-09 05:10:06.636 GMT


    (Updates stock market in fifth paragraph.)

By Bloomberg News
    Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Look no further than Alcoa Inc. and
General Motors Co. for evidence that the Chinese economy is
poised to accelerate even after a slump in lending growth
dragged down the nation's stock market.
    Alcoa, the largest U.S. aluminum producer, is raising its
forecast for global consumption of the metal on stronger demand
from China. GM, the biggest overseas automaker in China, says
the nation's vehicle sales may reach 12 million, surpassing the
U.S. as the world's No. 1 market.
    The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index entered a bear
market, or a decline of at least 20 percent, Aug. 31 on concern
a slide in new loans in July might slow production and
investment. Figures for August may allay the fears: Industrial
output rose the most in a year and retail sales climbed at a 15
percent annual pace, median forecasts in Bloomberg News surveys
show.
    "Credit tightening isn't going to crash the economy,"
said Tim Condon, head of Asia research in Singapore at ING Groep
NV and a former economist at the World Bank. "It's taking
investors a little time to get their heads around this fact."
   The Shanghai index rose for a sixth day yesterday, helping
pare the decline from this year's record close on Aug. 4 to 16
percent. The measure fell 0.3 percent as of 1:04 p.m. today.

                           'On Track'

    A boom in lending earlier this year will be enough to
sustain a pick-up in the country's economic expansion, analysts
said. China's gross domestic product may increase 9.5 percent in
2010 after an 8.3 percent gain in 2009, the smallest in eight
years, according to a Bloomberg survey of 22 economists
conducted the week ending Aug. 28.
    "China's economic recovery is well on track," said Lu
Zhengwei, an economist in Shanghai at Fuzhou-based Industrial
Bank Co., China's seventh-largest bank by market value. "With
the explosion of loans so far, stimulus investment won't be
affected, even if lending declines for the rest of this year."
    August new-lending figures are scheduled to be released
Sept. 11 and may show a 10 percent decline to 320 billion yuan
($47 billion), according to the median estimate of nine analysts
surveyed by Bloomberg. The July total was less than 25 percent
of the June figure.
    Loans reached a record 7.7 trillion yuan in the first half
of the year, spurring concern among Chinese policy makers that a
credit boom would stoke speculation in assets such as stocks and
property.
    While credit growth is slowing, some industries are
continuing to obtain financing, helping ease any impact on the
nation's manufacturing, analysts said.

                         Ample Funding

    Loans of more than a year, used for projects such as
railways and power-generation plants, showed ample funding, said
Wang Tao, an economist in Beijing at Zurich-based UBS AG,
Switzerland's largest bank by assets. Short-term credit, more
likely to be used for speculative purposes, dropped, she added.
    Industrial production, due for release on Sept. 11, rose at
an 11.8 percent annual rate in August, after a 10.8 percent
increase in July, according to the median of 15 estimates in a
Bloomberg survey. Retail sales figures the same day may show a
15.3 percent gain in August from a year earlier, the biggest
rise since January, economists' estimates indicate.
    To maintain the momentum, the central government has
budgeted 487.5 billion yuan of stimulus spending this year and
another 588.5 billion yuan in 2010 for work on projects from
low-cost housing to reconstruction in Sichuan province, hit by a
7.9-magnitude earthquake in May 2008.

                         Rising Demand

    All this means more business for Chinese and international
companies. Alcoa expects China's consumption of aluminum to rise
4 percent this year, compared with its earlier prediction of
zero growth, because of demand triggered by stimulus spending,
Chief Executive Officer Klaus Kleinfeld said in a Sept. 3
interview.
    GM sales in China last month jumped to 152,365 vehicles, a
gain of more than 100 percent, as tax cuts and stimulus measures
spurred demand. The Detroit-based company said its 2009 sales
will rise more than 40 percent from 1.09 million last year.
    The total for all automakers may increase 28 percent this
year to as many as 12 million, China's top planning agency said
Sept. 5.
    Auto production accounts for about 2 percent of GDP and
aluminum output for about 0.5 percent, according to estimates
by David Cohen, an economist in Singapore at Action Economics.
    China Railway Construction Corp., the builder of more than
half the nation's railroads, saw first-half profit jump 46
percent to 2.2 billion yuan, bolstered by government spending.

                      'Definitely Exceed'

   "We are the beneficiary of a once-in-a-hundred-years
opportunity," Vice Chairman Ding Yuanchen told reporters Sept.
2 in Hong Kong. The company "will definitely exceed" its sales
target of 266.3 billion yuan this year, he added.
    Manufacturing expanded the most in 16 months in August,
driven by the record lending in the first half of the year, the
official Purchasing Managers' Index showed Sept. 1. Urban
investment in fixed assets such as factories and properties
surged 32.7 percent in the first eight months of 2009 from a
year earlier, according to the median estimate of 15 economists
surveyed by Bloomberg.
    China is also likely to benefit from a recovery in global
trade, which the World Bank expects will record the first
contraction since 1982 this year. Chinese exports may climb as
much as 15 percent in 2010 after shrinking this year, said Peter
Redward, head of Asian emerging-markets research in Singapore at
Barclays Plc, the U.K.'s second-biggest lender.

                         Import Demand

    Trade figures this week may show that China's imports, the
world's third-largest, fell 10.5 percent in August from a year
earlier, the least in 10 months, according to the Bloomberg
survey median.
    Excess capacity in a number of industries remains a drag on
the nation's growth for now.
    Li Yizhong, China's industry minister, ordered steel
companies on Aug. 13 to refrain from expansion for the next
three years. Mills can produce 660 million metric tons of steel
annually and there's demand for only 470 million tons, Li said.
    Industrial profits dropped 17.3 percent in the first seven
months of 2009 from a year earlier to 1.11 trillion yuan,
according to the National Statistics Bureau.
    "Despite a more self-evident economic turnaround in China,
the prospect for the world economy remains unclear and the
downside risk to external demand remains significant," the
Commerce Ministry said last month.
    China still has ample resources to maintain its economic
acceleration, analysts said. The nation has the world's largest
foreign-exchange reserves, at $2.1 trillion, and outstanding
government debt of only 20 percent of GDP, compared with 87
percent in India, according to the International Monetary Fund.
    "The government will do whatever it takes to keep growth
going," said Huang Yiping, an economics professor at Beijing
University and the former chief Asia Pacific economist at
Citigroup Inc., the third-largest U.S. bank.

For Related News and Information:
China economic calendar: ECO CH <GO>
China economic snapshot: ESNP CH <GO>
China's manufacturing: TNI CHINA MAC <GO>
China's trade balance: CNFTBL <INDEX> GP <GO>
Chinese company earnings: TNI CHINA ERN BN <GO>
Most-read stories on China: MNI CHINA 1W <GO>
Most-read China economy stories: TNI CHECO MOSTREAD BN
<GO>
Top economic news: TOP ECO <GO>

--With assistance from Kevin Hamlin and Li Yanping in
Beijing. Editors: Paul Panckhurst, Matthew Brooker

To contact the Bloomberg News staff on this story:
Kevin Hamlin in Beijing on +86-10-6649-7573 or
khamlin@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Michael Dwyer at +65-6212-1130 or
mdwyer5@bloomberg.net

Dollar Index....new lows helps commodities as gold

Brasil ++: Mais forte do que nunca

Google Notícias: China Stocks Up, Gold Holds Near $1, 000

China Stocks Up, Gold Holds Near $1, 000 New York Times - ‎há 36 minutos‎ US gold futures for December delivery were down 0.3 percent at $993.90 per ounce, after settling down $1 at $996.70 on Friday. The contract rose to $999.50 ... China stocks rise, gold holds near $1000 Reuters todos os 78 artigos »

---

Pesquisar todas as manchetes de hoje no Google Notícias

Proteção que vale ouro

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Proteção que vale ouro

Por Assis Moreira, de Genebra
03/09/2009

Texto: A- A+
       
O melhor ativo para investimento dos últimos dez anos foi o ouro. Quem investiu no metal ganhou 245% de rendimento em dólar entre julho de 1999 e julho deste ano, comparado a 3% de retorno obtido em média com aplicações em ações nas bolsas de países industrializados. O ouro bateu, inclusive, o ganho das ações das melhores companhias e dos emergentes.

O cálculo é do Instituto de Finanças Internacionais (IIF), associação que agrupa os maiores bancos do mundo. O instituto alerta num relatório confidencial que alguns ativos podem estar sobrevalorizados no contexto atual e com o risco de sofrer correções.

A crise global, com o desmoronamento dos mercados financeiros ao redor do mundo e a consequente busca por proteção dos investidores, alterou a classificação dos ativos que mais deram retorno. O ouro, visto como porto seguro em crises mais sérias, certamente foi beneficiado nos últimos dois anos pelo receio de que a crise americana afetasse o dólar. No longo prazo, depois do ouro, o segundo maior rendimento veio dos bônus soberanos de países emergentes, seguido do obtido pelas ações também dos emergentes. As commodities ganharam igualmente de títulos do tesouro americano e de títulos de dívida de empresas.

Já quem aplicou em ações nos mercados industrializados só ganhou 3% na média, em dólar, em dez anos, ainda mais depois do baque das bolsas americanas e europeias desde 2007. O mercado de ações nos Estados Unidos no período de 2007 a 2009 foi o que sofreu o declínio mais profundo e rápido. O resultado é que quem aplicou em ações no mercado americano registrou perda de 17% na média no periodo de dez anos.

No curto prazo, a situação está mudando, com sinais de melhora dos mercados acionários desde março. A analista Suki Cooper, do Barclays Capital, em Londres, nota que o ouro continua a ser atrativo, mas os indicadores de que a economia chegou ao fundo do poço - e que, portanto, as ações estavam novamente atrativas - aguçaram o apetite por risco. O metal amarelo se valorizou em 9% em dólar de março para cá, mais do que os 7% das commodities em geral.

Já no mercado de ações, as bolsas nos países emergentes tiveram alta de 76% em média e, nos países ricos, de 59%. Nos EUA, a queda foi mais rápida, mas a recuperação também tem sido mais veloz.

Vários ativos se recuperaram desde o segundo trimestre, sobretudo ativos que haviam caído mais, mas a maioria ainda não recuperou tudo o que perdeu na crise global. As ações dos emergentes, por exemplo, só voltaram ao nível de fins de 2006 e, no caso dos mercados dos países mais ricos, ao nível do começo de 2004.

O IIF aponta uma interação de três tendências que podem trazer mais flutuações nos mercados financeiros após um periodo de menor volatilidade. Primeiro, a recuperação econômica ocorre em mais países, elevando as expectativas de alta de juros. O Banco Central de Israel foi o primeiro a aumentar as taxas.

Segundo, bancos, principalmente nos EUA e na Europa, continuam o processo de desalavancagem e redução de ativos, com vários deles ainda sob pressão, sobretudo por causa de sua gigantesca exposição aos mercados imobiliários. Isso alimenta questões sobre o vigor e a sustentabilidade da recuperação econômica.

E terceiro, depois da substancial alta nos mercados desde março, a sobrevalorização pode não durar. O risco de "ganhos desapontadores" das empresas abertas neste terceiro trimestre pode deflagrar o gatilho para uma correção nos mercados de ações globalmente.

Um sinal dessa maior cautela com ativos de risco aparece no fluxo líquido de recursos para fundos de ações de mercados emergentes, que começou a desacelerar. Ao mesmo tempo, aumentou para fundos de ações dos Estados Unidos e de títulos de emergentes.

Segundo o IIF, o fluxo líquido para fundos de ações de emergentes passou de US$ 7,5 bilhões em junho para US$ 4,7 bilhões em julho. Em agosto, ficou em apenas US$ 1,4 bilhão. Os mercados asiáticos receberam a parte do leão durante o ano, com mais de US$ 13,5 bilhões, comparados a US$ 5,5 bilhões para fundos de ações da América Latina.

Por sua vez, o fluxo líquido para fundos de renda fixa (títulos soberanos e em moeda local) de emergentes aumentou nas últimas semanas, totalizando US$ 6,6 bilhões, depois de retirada líquida de US$ 119 bilhões durante 2008. Com pouca expectativa de juros mais altos no curto prazo, fundos de títulos dos EUA receberam fluxo líquido de US$ 30 bilhões desde o começo de julho, totalizando US$ 120 bilhões no ano.    

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Se eu pudesse eu faria de 500.000 a 5 Milhas USD nessa

Se eu pudesse eu faria de 500.000 a 5 Milhas USD nessa
opera....

wonderings exercitam o cerebro....

Prata acompanha

(Bloomberg) Gold Rises to Six-Month High as Weak Dollar Spurs Metal Demand

otimo

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: BERTRAND WANCLIK, <b.wanclik@bloomberg.net>

Gold Rises to Six-Month High as Weak Dollar Spurs Metal Demand
2009-09-03 18:00:27.206 GMT


By Nicholas Larkin and Halia Pavliva
    Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Gold jumped to a six-month high,
reaching $999.50 an ounce, on speculation that a weak dollar
will boost demand for precious metals as an alternative
investment. Silver surged to the highest price in 13 months.
    Gold has gained 4.6 percent in the first three days of
September, the biggest three-day rally since March. The euro has
rallied 13.5 percent against the U.S. currency in the past six
months. Gold tends to rise when the dollar drops.
    "The dollar is going to be the main driver for gold
strengthening for the rest of the year," said David Barclay, a
metals analyst at Standard Chartered Plc in London.
    Gold futures for December delivery advanced $19.20, or 2
percent, to $997.70 an ounce at 1:30 p.m. on the New York
Mercantile Exchange's Comex division, after earlier gaining as
much as 2.1 percent to the highest price since Feb. 23.
    "Gold looks poised to make a real run at the $1,000
mark," Miguel Perez-Santalla, a Heraeus Precious Metals
Management sales vice president in New York, said in a note to
clients.
    In London, bullion for immediate delivery climbed $16.43,
or 1.7 percent, to $994.93 an ounce. Spot prices last topped
$1,000 on Feb. 20, and reached a record $1,032.70 in March 2008.

                        Trending Higher

    "The next trending step higher is under way" for gold,
SEB AB analysts in Stockholm said today in a report. The metal
may rise to $1,112, according to the report.
    Silver for December delivery jumped 92.5 cents, or 6
percent, to $16.29 an ounce in New York, after reaching $16.31
earlier, the highest price since Aug. 7, 2008. In London, silver
for immediate delivery climbed 5.1 percent to $16.185.


For Related News and Information:
Top commodity stories: CTOP <GO>
Top metals stories: METT <GO>
Technical gauges: BTST <GO>
Gold swaps, lease rates: GLDL <GO>
Commodity forecasts: CPF <GO>

--Editors: Steve Stroth, Daniel Enoch.

To contact the reporters on this story:
Nicholas Larkin in London at +44-20-7673-2069 or
nlarkin1@bloomberg.net;
Halia Pavliva in New York at +1-212-617-7221 or
hpavliva@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Steve Stroth at +1-312-443-5931 or
sstroth@bloomberg.net;
Stuart Wallace at +44-20-7673-2388 or
swallace6@bloomberg.net.

--
-----

Bertrand Clausell Wanclik (GMAIL)
http://trendsniffer.blogspot.com
http://kuizine.blogspot.com
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/0/b55/631  
+55 11 9955-6390
__________________________________
Sent from São Paulo, Brasil
Jonathan Swift  - "May you live every day of your life."

OURO A MIL otimo sinal...pompe agora SoaB....

Lula e os 5 Billion Barrels - acho que assitiu Austin Power 1

BRL invertido dando VENDA!!!!!!

BRL invertido dando VENDA!!!!!!