Quem se deu bem e quem se deu mal nesta crise na BOVESPA

MRR de dois periodos quase iguais do IBOVESPA e gráfico simples para ilustrar o retracement da queda.

Barclays: Implications of the EU’s ‘mega package’

We assess sovereign solvency in Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Italy. In addition to government debt dynamics, we account for financing needs, banking sector risks and reliance on foreign capital. Our results suggest: 1) while Greece has the worst debt dynamics, the five countries' overall vulnerability scores move closer together when liquidity needs, banking sector risks and exposure to 'sudden stops' in foreign capital flows are included; 2) Italy appears much more robust than the rest of the group; 3) the EU-ECB actions last weekend can go a long way in addressing financing and liquidity-related issues, thereby lowering the risk of self-fulfilling dynamics; and 4) however, the massive adjustment challenge of turning around these countries' debt dynamics remains. This is likely to shift markets' attention to the actual implementation of the promised fiscal reforms and economic performance in response to them. If these disappoint, the very positive market reaction of recent days may not last.

(BN) Dow Plunges Most Since 1987 Before Paring Losses; Euro

Dow Plunges Most Since 1987 Before Paring Losses; Euro Tumbles
2010-05-06 20:06:04.294 GMT


By Michael P. Regan and Rita Nazareth
    May 6 (Bloomberg) -- The Dow Jones Industrial Average had
its biggest intraday loss since the market crash of 1987, the
euro slid to a 14-month low and yields on Greek, Spanish and
Italian bonds surged on concern European leaders aren't doing
enough to stem the region's debt crisis. U.S. Treasuries soared.
    New York Stock Exchange spokesman Rich Adamonis said "there
were a number of erroneous trades" during the plunge. The NYSE
told CNBC that there were no system errors as speculation of
erroneous trades swirled through the market. The Nasdaq OMX
Group Inc. said it is working with other markets to review the
plunge.
    The Dow average lost as much as 998.5 points, or 9.2
percent, before paring its drop to 348.63 points at the 4 p.m.
close of trading in New York. It ended the day at 10,519.49, a
two-month low. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell as much as
8.6 percent, its biggest plunge since December 2008, before
trimming declines to end down 3.3 percent at 1,128.03.
    "It's panic selling," said Burt White, chief investment
officer at LPL Financial in Boston, which oversees $379 billion.
"There's concern that the European situation might cool down
global growth and freeze the credit markets."
    European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet held
interest rates at a record low of 1 percent today and said the
bank didn't discuss whether to purchase government bonds to stem
the region's debt crisis, defying market speculation that he
would take such measures.
    The euro maintained losses even as Greece's parliament
approved austerity measures demanded by the European Union and
International Monetary Fund as a condition of its 110 billion
euro ($140 billion) bailout.

                      Market 'Horrified'

    "The ECB can fix this instantly by doing what the Fed has
done -- instantly providing liquidity by buying bad fixed-income
instruments and paying cash in U.S. dollars," said David
Kovacs, head of quantitative strategies at Turner Investment
Partners in Berwyn, Pennsylvania, which manages $18 billion.
"The reason the market is horrified now is Trichet said it's
not even being discussed. Smart investors are basically selling
risk assets."
    The MSCI Asia Pacific Index joined the MSCI World Index and
the Stoxx 600 Index in wiping out its advance for 2010. The Dow
and S&P 500 briefly erased their yearly gains before paring
losses.
    Bank of America Corp., Hewlett-Packard Co. and American
Express Co. tumbled more than 4.5 percent to lead declines in
the 30-stock Dow average.
    The benchmark index for U.S. stock options surged as much
as 63 percent, the most since February 2007, to 40.71 before
paring its advance to 37 percent. The VIX, as the Chicago Board
Options Exchange Volatility Index is known, measures the cost of
using options as insurance against declines in the S&P 500.

                       Treasury Yields

    Yields on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes plunged 16 basis
points to 3.377 percent on demand for assets considered the most
safe. The Dollar Index, which measures the currency against six
major trading partners, jumped as much as 1.4 percent. The yen
and Swiss franc also strengthened.
    Yields on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage securities
that guide U.S. home-loan rates jumped the most relative to
Treasuries in almost a year.
    Spreads on Fannie Mae's current-coupon 30-year fixed-rate
mortgage bonds widened about 0.1 percentage point to 0.89
percentage point more than 10-year Treasuries as of 2:45 p.m. in
New York, the biggest jump since May 27, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg.
    The gap touched a record low of 0.59 percentage point on
March 29 as the Federal Reserve that month completed its
purchases of $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage bonds.
    "Fear is taking over, and images of Greek mobs aren't
helping," said Larry Peruzzi, equity trader at Cabrera Capital
Markets in Boston, Massachusetts, referring to televised images
of demonstrations against austerity measures in Athens. "Buyers
are stepping aside and disregarding fundamentals."

For Related News and Information:
Developed Markets View: DMMV <GO>
Emerging Markets View: EMMV <GO>
World equity valuations: WPE <GO>
World equity index monitor: WEI <GO>
Bonds and Money Markets Page: BTMM <GO>
Cross Currency Rates: FXC <GO>
World Currency Ranker: WCRS <GO>
Market map of today's trading: MXWO <Index> IMAP <GO>
Commodities Prices: GLCO <GO>

--With assistance from Mark Gilbert and Keith Jenkins in London,
Simon Kennedy in Paris, Simone Meier in Dublin, John Detrixhe,
Elizabeth Stanton, Inyoung Hwang and Michael Tsang and Mark
Shenk in New York and Pham-Duy Nguyen in Seattle. Editors: Chris
Nagi, Dan Hauck.

To contact the reporters on this story:
Michael P. Regan in New York at +1-212-617-7747 or
Mregan12@bloomberg.net;
Rita Nazareth in New York at +1-212-617-8908 or
rnazareth@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Chris Nagi at +1-212-617-2179 or chrisnagi@bloomberg.net.

THE ECB'S ROCK AND HARD PLACE - Article by State Street Bank

+ THE ECB'S ROCK AND HARD PLACE ++ - Article by State Street Bank

Morning,

A timely note from our strategist Lee Ferridge around the dangers the ECB
face later today if they decide to inject further stimulus via quantitative
easing -

There is much market speculation that the European Central Bank will on
Thursday announce a quantitative easing programme designed to purchase
Greek government bonds and hence, reduce both pressure on Greece and help
to fight the contagion that has gripped European markets (and those further
afield) in recent days. While it can be argued that the Fed's QE programme
of 2009 and early 2010 (and, to a lesser extent, that of the Bank of
England) proved successful in heading off the "great depression" risk
following the bursting of the credit bubble, the dilemma facing the ECB is
entirely different.

The Fed's QE programme was designed to stimulate the domestic economy
further when traditional monetary policy (i.e. interest rates) had reached
their lower bound (i.e. zero). No more stimulus could be provided at the
short-end of the curve and hence, money was printed in order to buy
government bonds and thereby reduce rates at the longer-end (which is what
QE effectively does).

However, if the ECB were to QE now, it would not be because monetary policy
had reached its lower bound, while EUR 2-yr swap rates yesterday reached
record lows. Rather any ECB QE programme would be started simply because
there are no buyers of Greek government debt – i.e. the ECB would be
monetizing the fiscal deficit; printing money to finance a fiscal policy
that has lost market credibility; the Zimbabwe scenario. Printing money to
overcome the lower bound of monetary policy and printing money in order to
fund government debt is a subtle, but extremely important distinction.
Monetising fiscal mistakes risks further undermining confidence in European
government debt, leading to even higher longer-term rates and hence, more
money printing.

Not only this, but both ECB independence and, the supposed separation of
fiscal and monetary policy would also be thrown into question by such an
announcement on Thursday. The Fed and BoE faced similar risks in 2009 but,
given the alternative of the great depression and lost decade they were
given the benefit of the doubt by the market. The ECB faces an entirely
different set of circumstances and hence, if it uses its "nuclear option"
on Thursday any relief for the euro is likely to be short-lived; a matter
of days (or even hours), rather than weeks. Of course, with no such
announcement Thursday there will be no relief for the euro; a further
widening in periphery bond spreads and a fresh euro sell-off will ensue.
The rock and the hard place – make your choice Mr Trichet. Either way, the
outlook for the euro remains bleak