sobe no boato e realiza no fato....
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
China's GDP Growth Accelerates to Fastest Since 2007 (Update4)
2010-01-21 07:12:00.247 GMT
(Updates stocks in fifth paragraph.)
By Bloomberg News
Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- China's growth accelerated to the
fastest pace since 2007 in the fourth quarter, capping Premier
Wen Jiabao's success in shielding the nation from the global
recession and adding pressure to rein in a surge in credit.
Gross domestic product rose 10.7 percent from a year before,
more than the median forecast of 10.5 percent in a Bloomberg
News survey, a statistics bureau report showed in Beijing today.
Asset-price gains, particularly in property, are creating
problems for the government to guide the economy, Ma Jiantang,
who heads the bureau, told reporters after the release.
The report stokes speculation the central bank will start
raising its benchmark interest rate and tighten restrictions on
the nation's lenders. The one-year swap rate, an indicator of
future changes in borrowing costs, climbed and the People's Bank
of China guided three-month bill yields higher for the second
time in two weeks.
"Today's data suggest that tighter policy is just around
the corner," said Brian Jackson, a Hong Kong-based strategist
on emerging markets at Royal Bank of Canada. "Policy makers
will need to move soon to stop the economy from overheating,"
he said, forecasting officials will end an exchange-rate peg and
boost interest rates starting this quarter.
Stocks across Asia were mixed today, with Japan's Nikkei
225 Average rising 1.2 percent at the close and Australia's
Standard & Poor's/ASX 200 Index falling 0.8%. The Shanghai
Composite Index was up 0.5 percent at 2:55 p.m. local time. The
one-year swap rate, the fixed cost for receiving a floating rate
for 12 months, rose three basis points to 2.32 percent.
Global Engine
The world may again this year count on China as the biggest
engine of growth. The World Bank late yesterday raised its
forecast for the global expansion in 2010 to 2.7 percent from 2
percent in June, and predicted 9 percent growth in China, which
is poised to overtake Japan as No. 2 in GDP rankings this year.
Mining company Rio Tinto Group reported a 49 percent jump
in fourth-quarter iron ore output on China's demand, while
companies ranging from Ford Motor Co. and Volkswagen AG to Hong
Kong billionaire Cheng Yu-tung's New World Department Store
China Ltd. are expanding in the nation.
Consumer prices rose a more-than-forecast 1.9 percent in
December from a year earlier, the second straight gain after
nine declines. Producer prices climbed 1.7 percent, after
declining for the previous 12 months, today's report showed.
'Too Worrisome'
"The inflation trend is too worrisome for the government
and we will continue to see policy tightened," said Isaac Meng,
senior economist at BNP Paribas SA in Beijing. Meng predicted
that the consumer-price inflation rate will exceed 3 percent in
coming months, and that the PBOC will increase banks' ratio of
assets held as reserves by 1.5 percentage points by July 1.
The statement from the statistics bureau today mirrored a
Wen speech on Jan. 19 by omitting a pledge to keep monetary
policy "moderately loose." Ma, the head of the National Bureau
of Statistics, did cite that pledge in his press briefing.
After last year overtaking the U.S. as the biggest auto
market and Germany as the biggest exporter, China is poised to
slot behind America this year as the second-largest economy.
China's GDP last year was 33.535 trillion yuan ($4.9 trillion),
the statistics bureau said today, almost the same as the World
Bank's 2008 estimate for Japan.
China Versus Japan
Bank of America-Merrill Lynch said today that its estimates
showed China didn't surpass Japan last year. While Japan's
economy shrank, calculations are also affected by currency
fluctuations.
According to Wen, policy makers' key tasks this year
include managing credit growth, controlling inflation and
countering property speculation.
For the full year, GDP gained 8.7 percent, beating Wen's 8
percent target. Retail sales rose 16.9 percent after adjusting
for consumer price changes, the bureau said. The government
previously said that gain was the biggest since 1986.
Wen this week indicated that he's putting more emphasis on
monthly data than year-on-year figures exaggerated by the
slowdown from late 2008. December retail sales of 1.26 trillion
yuan compared with a previously announced 1.13 trillion yuan in
November, indicating an increase of more than 11 percent.
China will begin releasing month-on-month comparisons for
key economic indicators from March, Ma said today.
Sales, Production
Sales quickened in December on a year-earlier basis,
climbing 17.5 percent, while industrial production increased at
a slower pace of 18.5 percent, today's report showed. Urban
fixed-asset investment jumped 30.5 percent in 2009, the
statistics bureau said.
The economy's third straight quarterly acceleration
highlights risks that inflation may surge and asset bubbles form
after monetary policy committee member Fan Gang said in November
that growth of more than 10 percent is excessive. Banking
regulator Liu Mingkang confirmed yesterday that lending limits
exist for some banks and said credit growth will slow this year.
Fourth-quarter economic growth was driven by an
unprecedented $586 billion stimulus package, subsidies for
consumer purchases and a credit-fueled investment boom. The
property market has rebounded and a 13-month slump in exports
ended last month.
Managing the economy may become more difficult because of
so-called hot money pouring in from investors betting on the
nation's recovery and gains in the yuan, which has been held at
about 6.83 per dollar since July 2008 to help exporters. As much
as $30 billion a month of speculative capital may flow in during
the first half of this year, according to Bank of America-
Merrill Lynch.
Bubble Concern
China is already a bubble, 62 percent of investors and
analysts said in a quarterly Bloomberg survey of subscribers.
Liu, the banking regulator, said yesterday in Hong Kong
that banks will extend 7.5 trillion yuan of loans this year,
about 22 percent less than last year's unprecedented 9.59
trillion yuan. The central bank this month ordered lenders to
set aside a larger proportion of deposits as reserves and has
guided bill yields higher after 2010 began with a surge in
lending.
China's 2009 GDP growth rate was down from 9.6 percent in
the previous year. The statistics bureau today revised its
estimate of growth in the third quarter of 2009 to 9.1 percent
from 8.9 percent. It changed the first-quarter figure to 6.2
percent from 6.1 percent.
For Related News and Information:
Most-read stories on China: MNI CHINA 1W <GO>
Most-read China economy stories: TNI CHECO MOSTREAD BN <GO>
For top economic news: TOP ECO <GO>
For top China news: TOP CHINA <GO>
Credit crunch page: WCC <GO>
Government relief programs: GGRP <GO>
--Li Yanping, Kevin Hamlin, Jay Wang. Editors: Paul Panckhurst,
Russell Ward.
To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story:
Li Yanping in Beijing at +86-10-6649-7568 or
yli16@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Chris Anstey at +81-3-3201-7553 or
canstey@bloomberg.net
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
China's GDP Growth Accelerates to Fastest Since 2007 (Update4)
2010-01-21 07:12:00.247 GMT
(Updates stocks in fifth paragraph.)
By Bloomberg News
Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- China's growth accelerated to the
fastest pace since 2007 in the fourth quarter, capping Premier
Wen Jiabao's success in shielding the nation from the global
recession and adding pressure to rein in a surge in credit.
Gross domestic product rose 10.7 percent from a year before,
more than the median forecast of 10.5 percent in a Bloomberg
News survey, a statistics bureau report showed in Beijing today.
Asset-price gains, particularly in property, are creating
problems for the government to guide the economy, Ma Jiantang,
who heads the bureau, told reporters after the release.
The report stokes speculation the central bank will start
raising its benchmark interest rate and tighten restrictions on
the nation's lenders. The one-year swap rate, an indicator of
future changes in borrowing costs, climbed and the People's Bank
of China guided three-month bill yields higher for the second
time in two weeks.
"Today's data suggest that tighter policy is just around
the corner," said Brian Jackson, a Hong Kong-based strategist
on emerging markets at Royal Bank of Canada. "Policy makers
will need to move soon to stop the economy from overheating,"
he said, forecasting officials will end an exchange-rate peg and
boost interest rates starting this quarter.
Stocks across Asia were mixed today, with Japan's Nikkei
225 Average rising 1.2 percent at the close and Australia's
Standard & Poor's/ASX 200 Index falling 0.8%. The Shanghai
Composite Index was up 0.5 percent at 2:55 p.m. local time. The
one-year swap rate, the fixed cost for receiving a floating rate
for 12 months, rose three basis points to 2.32 percent.
Global Engine
The world may again this year count on China as the biggest
engine of growth. The World Bank late yesterday raised its
forecast for the global expansion in 2010 to 2.7 percent from 2
percent in June, and predicted 9 percent growth in China, which
is poised to overtake Japan as No. 2 in GDP rankings this year.
Mining company Rio Tinto Group reported a 49 percent jump
in fourth-quarter iron ore output on China's demand, while
companies ranging from Ford Motor Co. and Volkswagen AG to Hong
Kong billionaire Cheng Yu-tung's New World Department Store
China Ltd. are expanding in the nation.
Consumer prices rose a more-than-forecast 1.9 percent in
December from a year earlier, the second straight gain after
nine declines. Producer prices climbed 1.7 percent, after
declining for the previous 12 months, today's report showed.
'Too Worrisome'
"The inflation trend is too worrisome for the government
and we will continue to see policy tightened," said Isaac Meng,
senior economist at BNP Paribas SA in Beijing. Meng predicted
that the consumer-price inflation rate will exceed 3 percent in
coming months, and that the PBOC will increase banks' ratio of
assets held as reserves by 1.5 percentage points by July 1.
The statement from the statistics bureau today mirrored a
Wen speech on Jan. 19 by omitting a pledge to keep monetary
policy "moderately loose." Ma, the head of the National Bureau
of Statistics, did cite that pledge in his press briefing.
After last year overtaking the U.S. as the biggest auto
market and Germany as the biggest exporter, China is poised to
slot behind America this year as the second-largest economy.
China's GDP last year was 33.535 trillion yuan ($4.9 trillion),
the statistics bureau said today, almost the same as the World
Bank's 2008 estimate for Japan.
China Versus Japan
Bank of America-Merrill Lynch said today that its estimates
showed China didn't surpass Japan last year. While Japan's
economy shrank, calculations are also affected by currency
fluctuations.
According to Wen, policy makers' key tasks this year
include managing credit growth, controlling inflation and
countering property speculation.
For the full year, GDP gained 8.7 percent, beating Wen's 8
percent target. Retail sales rose 16.9 percent after adjusting
for consumer price changes, the bureau said. The government
previously said that gain was the biggest since 1986.
Wen this week indicated that he's putting more emphasis on
monthly data than year-on-year figures exaggerated by the
slowdown from late 2008. December retail sales of 1.26 trillion
yuan compared with a previously announced 1.13 trillion yuan in
November, indicating an increase of more than 11 percent.
China will begin releasing month-on-month comparisons for
key economic indicators from March, Ma said today.
Sales, Production
Sales quickened in December on a year-earlier basis,
climbing 17.5 percent, while industrial production increased at
a slower pace of 18.5 percent, today's report showed. Urban
fixed-asset investment jumped 30.5 percent in 2009, the
statistics bureau said.
The economy's third straight quarterly acceleration
highlights risks that inflation may surge and asset bubbles form
after monetary policy committee member Fan Gang said in November
that growth of more than 10 percent is excessive. Banking
regulator Liu Mingkang confirmed yesterday that lending limits
exist for some banks and said credit growth will slow this year.
Fourth-quarter economic growth was driven by an
unprecedented $586 billion stimulus package, subsidies for
consumer purchases and a credit-fueled investment boom. The
property market has rebounded and a 13-month slump in exports
ended last month.
Managing the economy may become more difficult because of
so-called hot money pouring in from investors betting on the
nation's recovery and gains in the yuan, which has been held at
about 6.83 per dollar since July 2008 to help exporters. As much
as $30 billion a month of speculative capital may flow in during
the first half of this year, according to Bank of America-
Merrill Lynch.
Bubble Concern
China is already a bubble, 62 percent of investors and
analysts said in a quarterly Bloomberg survey of subscribers.
Liu, the banking regulator, said yesterday in Hong Kong
that banks will extend 7.5 trillion yuan of loans this year,
about 22 percent less than last year's unprecedented 9.59
trillion yuan. The central bank this month ordered lenders to
set aside a larger proportion of deposits as reserves and has
guided bill yields higher after 2010 began with a surge in
lending.
China's 2009 GDP growth rate was down from 9.6 percent in
the previous year. The statistics bureau today revised its
estimate of growth in the third quarter of 2009 to 9.1 percent
from 8.9 percent. It changed the first-quarter figure to 6.2
percent from 6.1 percent.
For Related News and Information:
Most-read stories on China: MNI CHINA 1W <GO>
Most-read China economy stories: TNI CHECO MOSTREAD BN <GO>
For top economic news: TOP ECO <GO>
For top China news: TOP CHINA <GO>
Credit crunch page: WCC <GO>
Government relief programs: GGRP <GO>
--Li Yanping, Kevin Hamlin, Jay Wang. Editors: Paul Panckhurst,
Russell Ward.
To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story:
Li Yanping in Beijing at +86-10-6649-7568 or
yli16@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Chris Anstey at +81-3-3201-7553 or
canstey@bloomberg.net
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