OGX vs IBOV vs HGTX

China and Yuan

China trade surplus soars, putting yuan in focus

BEIJING, Aug 10 (Reuters) - China's trade surplus unexpectedly ballooned in July to an 18-month high, handing fresh ammunition to critics who say Beijing is not moving swiftly enough to let the yuan rise.
Exports showed resilience, rising 38.1 percent from a year earlier to a record high of $145.5 billion. Shipments to the United States and the European Union rose from June levels, defying worries about slowing demand.

Long em ITUB4 x Short em BBDC4: parece uma boa

ibov

My China view: BUY on more strength

BUY on more strength this week

Comparativo preço Corolla no Brasil x outros países

interessante

7 de 91 bancos europeus nao passam no stress test? é pouco nao?

Germany gets flak over stress tests. The results of European stress tests, published on Friday, showed that just seven of 91 banks tested across the EU failed to achieve a tier one capital ratio of 6% once their balance sheets were exposed to a series of adverse scenarios for 2010 and 2011. However, Germany is getting flak from European regulators because six of the 14 German banks tested, including Deutsche Bank (DB) and Postbank, didn't provide the expected detailed breakdown of sovereign debt holdings. The non-disclosure is likely to fuel rumors that the banks have something to hide, adding to the market uncertainty that stress tests were meant to quell. Meanwhile, banks that passed the tests must now turn to their next challenge: raising billions of dollars in long-term funding tofinance new lending. Premarket: DB -2.65% (7:00 ET). monday 07/26/2010

(BN) EU Stress Tests Only Consider Trading Book Bond Loss 13 PM BRASILIA

EU Stress Tests Only Consider Trading Book Bond Loss (Update2)
2010-07-23 13:53:13.878 GMT


    (Adds analyst comment in fourth paragraph.)

By Meera Louis
    July 23 (Bloomberg) -- European stress tests on 91 banks
will take into account bank losses only on government bonds they
trade rather than those they hold to maturity, according to a
draft European Central Bank document.
    "The haircuts are applied to the trading book portfolios
only, as no default assumption was considered," according to a
confidential document dated July 22 and titled "EU Stress Test
Exercise: Key Messages on Methodological Issues."
    The tests will assume a loss of 23.1 percent on Greek debt,
14 percent of Portuguese bonds, 12.3 percent on Spanish debt,
and 4.7 percent on German state debt, according to the document
obtained by Bloomberg News. U.K. government bonds will be
subject to a 10 percent haircut, and France 5.9 percent.
    The decision "allows banks to basically underestimate
their exposure to distressed peripheral debt," Brown Brothers
Harriman, the New York private bank founded almost 200 years
ago, said in a note to clients today. "By leaving out stress
tests on the banking book, then a true picture of bank balance
sheets will clearly not be obtained."
    The tests assume the weighted average yield on euro-area
five-year government bonds will rise to 4.6 percent in 2011 from
2.7 percent at the end of 2009. The tests also include an
increase in the yield on five-year Greek government bonds to as
much as 13.9 percent after "interest rate shocks," the
document shows.
    "The haircuts on government debt in the trading book
increase according to the introduction of sovereign risk, which
is modeled as an increase in government bond spreads in line
with market developments since the beginning of May 2010,"
according to the document.

                         Euro Weakens

    European Union regulators are examining the strength of
banks to determine if they can survive potential losses on
sovereign-bond holdings. They are counting on the tests to
reassure investors about the health of financial institutions
from Germany's WestLB AG and Bayerische Landesbank to Spanish
savings banks as the debt crisis pummels the bonds of Greece,
Spain and Portugal.
    The 54-member Bloomberg Europe Banks and Financial Services
Index traded down 1.1 percent at 2:38 p.m. London time. The euro
weakened against the dollar, sliding 0.6 percent to $1.2817.
    The Committee of European Banking Supervisors, which is
overseeing the tests, is scheduled to release the criteria and
the results from 5 p.m. London time today. CEBS deputy secretary
general Patrick Amis declined to comment on the document,
referring questions to the ECB. The ECB declined to comment.

Related News and Information: Legal Functions and Filings: {BLAW
<GO>} More on European Regulators: {TNI MKTREG EUROPE <GO>}
Economic indicator watch: {ECOW EU <GO>} European economic
coverage: {TNI ECO EU <GO>}

--Editors: Edward Evans, Francis Harris

To contact the reporters on this story:
Meera Louis in Brussels at +32-2-237-4328 or
mlouis1@bloomberg.net;

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Edward Evans at +44-207-073-3190 or eevans3@bloomberg.net.

(Bloomberg) Sell Bonds, Buy Precious Metals, Rice as ‘Refuge,’

Sell Bonds, Buy Precious Metals, Rice as 'Refuge,' Rogers Says
2010-07-07 10:49:06.466 GMT


By Ranjeetha Pakiam
    July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should sell bonds and buy
commodities like silver and rice as a "refuge" as the world
economy may continue having problems, Jim Rogers, chairman of
Rogers Holdings said.
    "Bonds are not a good place to invest in," Rogers said at
a conference in Kuala Lumpur today. "You should own commodities
because that's your only refuge" whether it's silver or rice,
said Rogers, who predicted the start of the global commodities
rally in 1999.
    Gold has gained 8.3 percent this year, leading advances in
precious metals, as investors seek haven assets to protect their
wealth amid concern the global economic recovery will falter.
Still, commodities overall capped their worst quarter in more
than a year on investors' concern that slower growth from China
to the U.S. will sap demand.
    The best place to be is in commodities and other natural
resources, including precious metals like silver, platinum and
palladium, said Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Hedge Fund in
1970. Commodities are good to buy as supply shortages are
already developing, the Singapore-based investor said.
    Gold prices will rise to more than $2,000 per ounce, said
Rogers, without giving a timeframe. Bullion for immediate
delivery declined 0.4 percent at $1,187.85 an ounce at 6:34 p.m.
in Singapore. It reached a record $1,265.30 on June 21.

                        'Straight Up'

     "I do own gold," he said. "Gold has been extremely
strong of late, but I'm not rushing out to buy gold. I don't
like to buy things that have been going straight up."
    While gold has been trading at all-time highs, silver
remains 60 to 70 percent below its peak and is a better
investment, he said. Silver reached an all-time high of $50.35
in New York in 1980.
    Silver for immediate delivery fell 1 percent to $17.6413 an
ounce at 6:22 p.m. Platinum dropped 0.6 percent to $1,507.68 and
palladium declined 1.2 percent to $433.35.
    Still, agricultural commodities are better than metals as
prices are "very depressed," he said, pointing to sugar which
is 75 percent below its all-time high in 1974. Raw sugar for
October delivery slid 1.2 percent to 16.49 cents a pound on ICE
Futures U.S. in New York. It reached a record of 66 cents in
November 1974.
    "Not many things are 75 percent cheaper that 36 years ago,
but that's true of sugar," Rogers said. "Agriculture
commodities are desperately cheap compared to 20, 30, 40 years
ago."
    Rice futures on June 30 touched $9.55, the lowest price
since October, 2006, on rising production and declining demand.
The contract for September delivery gained 0.7 percent to $9.935
per 100 pounds on the Chicago Board of Trade at 6:15 p.m. in
Shanghai.

For Related News and Information:
--Editors: Barry Porter, Richard Dobson.

To contact the reporter responsible for this story:
Ranjeetha Pakiam in Kuala Lumpur at +603-2302-7856 or
rpakiam@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Richard Dobson in Shanghai at +86-21-6104-7025 or
rdobson4@bloomberg.net

Online job recruitment grew in 28 of 28 US cities surveyed last month by MONSTER

The Monster Employment Index is a broad and comprehensive monthly analysis of U.S. online job demand conducted by Monster Worldwide, Inc. (NASDAQ: MNST), the parent company of the leading global online careers property, Monsterï. 

Based on a real-time review of millions of employer job opportunities culled from more than 1,500 Web sites, including a variety of corporate career sites, job boards and Monster, the Monster Employment Index presents a snapshot of employer online recruitment activity nationwide.

The Index counts job postings as an indicator of employer demand for employees or, in other words, job availability. Job postings are online advertisements placed by an employer looking to fill one or more vacant, or recently created, job positions.

July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Online job recruitment grew in 28 of 28 cities surveyed last month. The following table ranks online job availability by major metro area.

*T               

=====================================================================

                    June    May  April  March   Feb.   Jan.   Dec.

                    2010   2010   2010   2010   2010   2010   2009

=====================================================================

 Atlanta              93     88     90     84     78     66     71

 Baltimore            54     49     51     46     44     38     42

 Boston               81     79     78     66     62     52     57

 Chicago              78     74     76     68     66     55     60

 Cincinnati           84     75     73     69     65     54     56

 Cleveland           100     91     91     88     80     70     75

 Dallas              105    103    101     99     95     80     84

 Denver              100     96     94     89     86     77     80

 Detroit              91     79     78     72     70     57     63

 Houston             118    114    111    107    104     97     98

 Indianapolis         92     82     82     78     76     68     70

=====================================================================

                    June    May  April  March   Feb.   Jan.   Dec.

                    2010   2010   2010   2010   2010   2010   2009

=====================================================================

 Kansas City          97     87     86     79     75     65     69

 Los Angeles          69     67     67     61     58     51     54

 Miami                78     75     76     72     69     59     62

 Minneapolis          91     86     85     84     78     68     72

 New York City        84     82     82     73     70     60     65

 Orlando              60     53     50     50     44     36     39

 Philadelphia         57     56     54     45     43     36     41

 Phoenix              71     70     70     67     65     60     62

 Pittsburgh          152    141    136    131    126    108    112

 Portland             97     88     84     79     71     62     69

 Sacramento           78     71     70     68     62     57     59

 San Diego            74     70     71     69     65     60     62

 San Francisco        76     73     73     68     66     58     61

 Seattle             111    105    104     99     93     84     89

 St. Louis           116    104    102     99     95     83     85

 Tampa Bay            87     77     77     73     71     62     63

 Washington DC        58     54     55     48     46     38     45

=====================================================================

                    June    May  April  March   Feb.   Jan.   Dec.

                    2010   2010   2010   2010   2010   2010   2009

=====================================================================

=====================================================================

BUY Chinese YUAN FX and USD denominated COMMODITIES

YUAN = RENMINBI = CNY = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renminbi

Monthly since 81

This is monthly microscale 94/2010

I prefer to be long CNY

ADP grows less than forecasted

ADP + 13 vs 60 expected

not good

(BN) Stocks Slide, Treasuries Jump on Concern Over China,

Stocks Slide, Treasuries Jump on Concern Over China, Confidence
2010-06-29 14:24:12.198 GMT


By Rita Nazareth and Stephen Kirkland
    June 29 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks plunged from Shanghai to New
York, with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index sinking below its
lowest closing level of the year, and Treasury two-year note
yields dropped to a record low on concern over weakening growth
in China and lower-than-estimated U.S. consumer confidence.
    The S&P 500 slid 2.5 percent to 1,047.61 at 10:18 a.m. in
New York, its lowest on a closing basis since November 2009. The
MSCI World Index of 24 developed nations lost 2.9 percent, the
biggest drop since May 20. The benchmark 2012 Treasury note
yield slid as low as 0.5857 percent and the 10-year yield sank
below 3 percent for the first time in 14 months. China's
Shanghai Composite Index slumped 4.3 percent, the most in six
weeks, and the yen rose to an eight-year high against the euro.
    "It's ugly out there," said James Paulsen, who helps
oversee about $375 billion as chief investment strategist at
Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis. "Consumers are pulling
back. There's concern about a China slowdown. We're close to
important technical levels on the S&P 500, with 1,040 being
closely watched. It's end of quarter, investors have to close
their books and they are selling the stocks that did poorly."
    The tumble in global stocks started after the Conference
Board's leading economic index for China, which overtook Germany
as the world's biggest exporter last year, rose 0.3 percent in
April, less than the 1.7 percent reported June 15. Losses
accelerated after the same research group's gauge of U.S.
consumer confidence slumped to 52.9 in June, less than all 71
projections in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

                   Home Prices Overshadowed

    The S&P 500, the benchmark gauge for U.S. stocks, retreated
for the sixth time in seven days even after a report showed home
prices in 20 U.S. cities rose in April from a year earlier as
sales got a boost from a tax credit. The S&P/Case-Shiller index
of property values climbed 3.8 percent from April 2009, the
biggest year-over-year gain since September 2006. The gain
topped the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg
News.
    Today's data damaged investor confidence amid concern a
Labor Department report July 2 will show the U.S. lost jobs for
the first time this year while European bank balance sheets come
under renewed scrutiny.
    All 10 industry groups in the MSCI World gauge declined,
led by basic-materials producers and financial companies. The
index has lost 8.4 percent this year. The MSCI Asia Pacific
Index dropped 1.6 percent today as Japan's unemployment rate
unexpectedly increased.

                     Treasuries Rally

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury security slid as much as
7 basis points to 2.95 percent, the lowest since April 2009.
Treasuries have climbed 5.7 percent this year, according to
indexes compiled by Bloomberg and the European Federation of
Financial Analysts Societies. The 10-year Australian bond yield
dropped nine basis points to 5.14 percent, and the yield on the
German bund retreated three basis points to 2.55 percent.
    The yen appreciated 1.5 percent to 108.05 per euro, the
strongest level since November 2001, while the 16-nation
European currency weakened 0.8 percent against the dollar to
$1.2176, falling for the second consecutive day. The Swiss franc
strengthened to less than 1.33 per euro for the first time amid
speculation the nation's central bank won't intervene to curb
its appreciation.
    Metals declined for the first time in four sessions on the
London Metal Exchange, led by a 4.8 percent drop in zinc and 5.3
percent plunge in lead. Copper fell 3.8 percent, extending its
decline this year to 10 percent. Gold slipped 0.2 percent to
$1,236.78 an ounce, trimming this year's gain to less than 13
percent. Oil for August delivery slumped 3.2 percent to $75.78 a
barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

                       Emerging Markets

    The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 2.6 percent, the most
since June 7, extending this year's drop to 6.3 percent.
Benchmark indexes in Russia, the world's largest energy
supplier, Poland, Ukraine, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Dubai,
Indonesia and Egypt lost more than 2 percent.
    The New York-based Conference Board cited a calculation
error for the revision in its Chinese index. The research
group's outlook for the nation's economy hasn't been affected by
the correction, said William Adams, the group's resident
economist in Beijing.
    "Growth was not likely to accelerate in China, and in
fact, a moderation is possible," Adams said in a telephone
interview. "This correction also supports the same view."
    The Stoxx Europe 600 Index tumbled 2 percent as Rio Tinto
Group, the world's third-biggest mining company, plunged 4.8
percent on concern demand from China may weaken. BP Plc slid 2.7
percent, bringing its decline since an April explosion on the
Deepwater Horizon rig to more than 50 percent.
    The cost of insuring BP's debt approached a record, with
credit-default swaps increasing 3.5 basis points to 587.4,
according to CMA DataVision, a London-based credit information
provider. The contracts closed at an all-time high of 588.6 on
June 25.

For Related News and Information:
Developed Markets View: DMMV <GO>
Emerging Markets View: EMMV <GO>
Stock Market Map: IMAP G <GO>
World Equity Markets: WEI <GO>
World Bond Markets: WB <GO>
Pipeline of Bonds: PREL <GO>
World Currency Ranker: WCRS <GO>
Commodity Ranked Returns: CRR <GO>
Credit-Default Swap Indexes: MKIT <GO>
World Trends and Reversals: WTR <GO>
Graphing: GRAPH <GO>

----With assistance from Claudia Carpenter, Lukanyo Mnyanda
Andrew Rummer, Michael Shanahan and Daniel Tilles in London.
Editor: Michael P. Regan

To contact the reporters on this story:
Stephen Kirkland in London at +44-20-7073-3172 or
skirkland@bloomberg.net;

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Paul Sillitoe in London at +4420-7073-3857

Yuan is turning higher : Sell Dollars

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-yuan-chinese-airlines-rally-2010-06-21?dist=beforebell

(BN) Greece Cut Four Steps to Junk by Moody’s on Economic Risks

Greece Cut Four Steps to Junk by Moody's on Economic 'Risks'
2010-06-14 17:51:34.243 GMT


By Ben Martin
    June 14 (Bloomberg) -- Greece's credit rating was cut four
steps to non-investment grade, or junk, by Moody's Investors
Service, which cited the country's economic "risks."
    The rating was lowered to Ba1 from A3, Moody's said in a
statement today from London. The outlook is stable, it said.
Greece is already rated junk by Standard & Poor's.
    The European Union last month announced a rescue package of
almost $1 trillion, with support from the International Monetary
Fund, to shore up the finances of the region's weakest economies
amid concern that governments will struggle to narrow their
budget deficits.
    "It's a significant downgrade," said Kevin Flanagan, a
Purchase, New York-based fixed-income strategist for Morgan
Stanley Smith Barney. "It's not a surprise to people, but the
timing and magnitude is what has taken Treasuries off the lows
and is providing some support."
    The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose six basis
points to 3.30 percent, after rising to 3.33 percent.
    "The Ba1 rating reflects our analysis of the balance of
the strengths and risks associated with the euro-zone-IMF
support package," Sarah Carlson, vice president-senior analyst
in Moody's sovereign risk group, said in the statement.
    S&P cut Greece's credit rating to non-investment grade on
April 27, the first time a euro member lost its investment-grade
since the euro's 1999 debut. S&P warned that bondholders could
recover as little as 30 percent of their initial investment if
the country restructures its debt.

For Related News and Information:
Top stories: TOP <GO>
Bond yield forecasts: BYFC <GO>
Greek debt crisis: EXT3 <GO>
For new issues: NIM4 <GO>
For top bond stories TOP BON <GO>
Greek crisis special report: EXT3 <GO>

--With assistance from Benjamin Levisohn in New York. Editors:
Daniel Tilles, Dave Liedtka

To contact the reporter on this story:
Ben Martin in London +44-20-7073-3397 or
bmartin38@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Ben Livesey at +44-20-7673-2371 or
blivesey@bloomberg.net.

(AFL) Produção industrial da Zona do euro tem maior avanço desde 91

Produção industrial da Zona do euro tem maior avanço desde 1991
2010-06-14 10:33:47.520 GMT


Reuters

Bruxelas, Bélgica (FolhaNews)
A produção industrial da zona do euro registrou em abril a maior alta na
comparação anual em quase duas décadas, segundo dados da Agência de Estatísticas
Eurostat, divulgados nesta segunda-feira.

A atividade cresceu 0,8% sobre março e saltou 9,5% ante abril de 2009, a maior
variação desde o início da série histórica em janeiro de 1991.

A Eurostat revisou para cima o dado de março, para crescimento de 1,5% ante
fevereiro e de 7,7% sobre o ano passado, ante as leituras preliminares de,
respectivamente, 1,3% e 6,9%.


Provider ID: 00011AFL
-0- Jun/14/2010 10:33 GMT

Acho bom venda de 14.75 / 15 put pra outubro

time will tell

Sugar Short is over? Maybe YES!

Output in Center South, Brazil's main cane-growing region, jumped 26 percent in May's first half as mills processed a record crop, industry association Unica said last week. Some traders are betting that production may start to slow because of excessive rain and lack of sun during growing months, according to researcher Kingsman SA.

"We will have to keep a sharp eye out on the Unica crush numbers as we move through the season,"Jonathan Kingsman, managing director of Lausanne, Switzerland-based Kingsman, wrote in a report yesterday after trading closed. "The bulls argue that as the season progresses, the cane will lose both agricultural and industrial yield."

(BN) Investors Pick U.S. Over BRICs in Bloomberg User Poll

Investors Pick U.S. Over BRICs in Bloomberg User Poll (Update1)
2010-06-08 01:21:00.211 GMT


    (Adds Hungary's pledge to control deficit in second
paragraph under Debt Crisis sub-headline.)

By Mike Dorning
    June 8 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. has supplanted China and
Brazil as the most attractive market for investors as confidence
in the global economic recovery wanes in the wake of the Greek
debt crisis.
    Investors are putting their money on President Barack
Obama's stewardship of the U.S. economy even as his job-approval
rating has declined, according to a global quarterly poll of
investors and analysts who are Bloomberg subscribers.
    Almost four of 10 respondents picked the U.S. as the market
presenting the best opportunities in the year ahead. That's more
than double the portion who said so last October, when the U.S.
was rated the market posing the greatest downside risk by a
plurality of respondents.
    Lawrence Summers, director of the White House National
Economic Council, said this attests to Obama's efforts at
"restoring the United States to strong economic fundamentals."
He added that "while there remains much to do, the U.S. economy
is growing."
    "We've seen the bottom; we're firm, and the United States
is slowly moving forward," said Wayne Smith, 51, managing
director of fixed-income trading at Uniondale, New York-based
Northeast Securities, which manages $3.5 billion.
    Following the U.S.'s 39 percent rating as the most
promising market were Brazil, chosen by 29 percent; China, 28
percent; and India, 27 percent. Those are three of the four so-
called BRICs, large emerging markets that also include Russia.
Just 6 percent chose Russia.
    In a poll taken in January, China was the favorite followed
by Brazil. Respondents were allowed to pick multiple countries.

                     'Least Dirty Shirt'

    The U.S. is one of the few relative bright spots in a
global market rattled by the Greek debt crisis. Bill Gross, co-
chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co.
and manager of the world's largest bond fund, called the U.S.
"the least dirty shirt," in a Bloomberg Radio interview.
    Forty-two percent of investors now believe the world
economy is deteriorating, double the 21 percent who thought so
in January. U.S. investors were the most pessimistic about the
global economy, with 58 percent saying it is getting worse
versus 31 percent of Europeans and 35 percent of Asians.
Europeans were the most pessimistic about their own region, with
40 percent viewing it as deteriorating; 21 percent of U.S.
investors viewed their home region negatively, while 9 percent
in Asia felt that way.
    International views of the European Union have declined
sharply. More than half of respondents believe the EU offers the
worst investment opportunities, up from a third who said so in
January, when Europe also ranked at the bottom.

                         Debt Crisis

    The crisis in Greece, where soaring deficits have stirred
fears of a government default, has rippled throughout Europe,
with credit agencies downgrading sovereign debt in Portugal and
Spain. On June 4, stocks slumped as a comment by a Hungarian
official that his nation's economy is in a "very grave
situation" fanned concern the debt crisis will spread.
    Hungary's government yesterday pledged to control the
budget deficit and make structural changes to overhaul the
economy as it distanced itself from suggestions the country was
facing a Greece-like crisis.
    The turmoil has drawn a flood of international money into
U.S. government debt, with yields on 10-year Treasury notes
dropping from 3.99 percent on April 5 to 3.15 percent at 4:18
p.m., New York time yesterday. While the Standard & Poor's 500
Index has declined more than 13 percent since its April 23 high,
the benchmark U.S. stock index is up more than 30 percent since
Obama took office.

                        Can't Keep Up

    "While American companies cut down the workforce at their
plants as fast before as they are now hiring workers back,
European companies were not able to respond in a similar way,"
said poll respondent Ofir Navot, 35, of Tel Aviv, head of global
investments for Ramco Mutual Funds, which manages about $400
million.
    Investors' rising confidence in the U.S. economy isn't
reflected in their appraisal of Obama: The poll shows his job-
approval rating dropped to 51 percent from 60 percent in
January.
    Investors remain bullish on China's long-term prospects.
More than 6 of 10 believe China will replace the U.S. as the
world's largest economy within 20 years. Almost a quarter
believe it will do so within a decade.
    Respondents don't share Treasury Secretary Timothy
Geithner's optimism that China will revalue its currency soon. A
majority said it will be at least a year before the country does
so.

                         Making Money

    The quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll of investors, traders
and analysts on six continents was conducted June 2-3 by Selzer
& Co., a Des Moines, Iowa-based firm. It is based on interviews
with a random sample of 1,001 Bloomberg subscribers,
representing decision makers in markets, finance and economics.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage
points.
    Even with the pessimism over the global outlook, more
investors see a chance to make money in this environment.
Thirty-five percent said they are seeing opportunity and taking
risks, up from 27 percent who said so in January. Asian
investors were especially likely to see rewards ahead, with 48
percent saying they are taking more risks.
    With poll respondents confident in U.S. growth prospects,
the emerging doubts about a global economic recovery haven't
translated into major shifts in views toward asset classes. As
in the January poll, stocks are considered the most attractive
asset class for the coming year. While commodities were second,
the portion of investors choosing them declined to 23 percent
from 31 percent.

                       Bearish on Bonds

    Bonds were chosen as the asset class likely to offer the
worst returns, with 36 percent of respondents saying that. Real
estate was rated next worst, chosen by 24 percent.
    Investors in Asia, where there are fears that China's
property market is overheated, were the most pessimistic about
real estate, rating it the worst asset to hold.
    Poll respondents by an almost 2-to-1 margin expect to
increase rather than decrease holdings of stocks during the next
six months.
    More than half of investors believe the S&P 500 index will
be higher in six months, though sentiments are bearish on the
Euro Stoxx 50 index and Britain's FTSE index.
    Investors are also bullish on crude oil prices, which
usually rise along with economic activity. Forty-nine percent
believe oil prices will be higher in six months compared with 24
percent who say they will be lower. The rest expect little
change.

                       Gold Seen Rising

    By a margin of 47 percent to 30 percent, respondents say
they expect the price of gold, a traditional hedge against
political and economic turmoil, to rise in six months. By a
margin of 50 percent to 25 percent, they see yields on the 10-
year Treasury note rising.
    Fears of inflation are muted. Only a little more than a
quarter consider it a major threat in "the next couple years."
The regions considered most at risk were China, cited by 19
percent of respondents, followed by the U.S., cited by 17
percent, and the Euro zone, picked by 10 percent.
    To see the methodology and exact wording of the poll
questions, click on the attachment tab at the top of the story.

For Related News and Information:
U.S. economic data watch: ESNP US <GO>
U.S. unemployment rate: USURTOT <INDEX> GP <GO>
U.S. economic forecasts: ECFC US <GO>
European economic forecasts: ECFC EU <GO>
European crisis monitor: CRIS <GO>
Bloomberg stories on the economy: TNI US ECO BN <GO>
Bloomberg news on the Federal Reserve: NI FED BN <GO>

--Editors: Mark McQuillan, Max Berley.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mike Dorning in
Washington at +1-202-624-1971 or mdorning@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Chris Wellisz at +1-202-624-1862 or cwellisz@bloomberg.net.

Quem se deu bem e quem se deu mal nesta crise na BOVESPA

MRR de dois periodos quase iguais do IBOVESPA e gráfico simples para ilustrar o retracement da queda.

Barclays: Implications of the EU’s ‘mega package’

We assess sovereign solvency in Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Italy. In addition to government debt dynamics, we account for financing needs, banking sector risks and reliance on foreign capital. Our results suggest: 1) while Greece has the worst debt dynamics, the five countries' overall vulnerability scores move closer together when liquidity needs, banking sector risks and exposure to 'sudden stops' in foreign capital flows are included; 2) Italy appears much more robust than the rest of the group; 3) the EU-ECB actions last weekend can go a long way in addressing financing and liquidity-related issues, thereby lowering the risk of self-fulfilling dynamics; and 4) however, the massive adjustment challenge of turning around these countries' debt dynamics remains. This is likely to shift markets' attention to the actual implementation of the promised fiscal reforms and economic performance in response to them. If these disappoint, the very positive market reaction of recent days may not last.