segunda-feira, 8 de novembro de 2010
sábado, 6 de novembro de 2010
my girlfriend's self-view video
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quinta-feira, 4 de novembro de 2010
quarta-feira, 3 de novembro de 2010
terça-feira, 2 de novembro de 2010
segunda-feira, 1 de novembro de 2010
quinta-feira, 28 de outubro de 2010
(NS1) CNBC: Brazil's Vale reports record 3Q profits� 40
CNBC: Brazil's Vale reports record 3Q profits� 40 mins ago
2010-10-28 06:04:54.570 GMT
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?z3512748538&z=950243446
PageExcerpt:
SAO PAULO - Brazil's Vale mining company is reporting record profits for the third quarter on strong global demand for iron ore. The company says in a Wednesday statement that its net earnings were $6 billion in the July through September period. ...
2010-10-28 06:04:54.570 GMT
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?z3512748538&z=950243446
PageExcerpt:
SAO PAULO - Brazil's Vale mining company is reporting record profits for the third quarter on strong global demand for iron ore. The company says in a Wednesday statement that its net earnings were $6 billion in the July through September period. ...
segunda-feira, 25 de outubro de 2010
(BN) Treasury Draws Negative Yield for First Time During
Treasury Draws Negative Yield for First Time During TIPS Sale
2010-10-25 17:07:08.164 GMT
By Daniel Kruger and Cordell Eddings
Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The Treasury sold $10 billion of
five-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities at a negative
yield for the first time in the history of U.S. debt.
The securities drew a yield of negative 0.55 percent, the
same as the average forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 7 of
the Federal Reserve's 18 primary dealers. The bid-to-cover
ratio, which gauges demand by comparing total bids with the
amount of securities offered, was 2.84. The average at the last
120 auctions was 2.38. The sale was a reopening of an $11
billion offering in April.
"These negative yields are being driven by the Federal
Reserve and their push to increase inflation expectations,"
Michael Pond, co-head of U.S. rates strategy in New York at
Barclays Plc, said before the sale. The firm is one of 18
primary dealers required to bid at Treasury auctions.
The U.S. can only sell debt at a negative yield on
inflation-linked debt, according to McKayla Barden, a
spokeswoman at the Bureau of the Public Debt. Conventional
fixed-coupon Treasuries of a given maturity could be sold at
price above face value with a zero percent coupon if yields in
the market on that maturity were negative. The government began
selling inflation-protected debt in 1997.
Other Auctions
The sale was the first of four this week totaling $109
billion.
The last TIPS auction, on April 26, drew a yield of 0.550
percent, which was the lowest on record. The bid-to-cover ratio
was 3.15.
Treasury 30-year bonds rose for a second day, leading a
rally in Treasuries, amid speculation on how much debt the
Federal Reserve may buy to spur the economy and before data that
may show economic growth was below average.
Ten-year note yields fell for the first time in four days,
shrinking the difference between 2- and 10-year yields before
the Fed meets next week. Treasuries gained even as data showed
sales of existing homes rose. The U.S. is scheduled to sell $10
billion of five-year inflation-linked securities today, the
first of four note auctions this week totaling $109 billion.
"Whenever we see a bit of a selloff in the Treasury market
it is getting met, and will continue to get met, by renewed
buying until we get clarification with regards to the size and
frequency of the Fed's asset purchases," said Christian Cooper,
senior rates trader in New York at primary dealer Jefferies &
Co.
For Related News and Information:
Bond yield forecasts: BYFC <GO>
Top bond market news: TOP BON <GO>
World bond markets: WB <GO>
Credit market watch: CMW <GO>
Sovereign debt monitor: SOVR <GO>
Short-term liquidity SLIQ <GO>
Bonds for sale: PREL <GO>
--With assistance from Daniel Kruger in New York. Editors: Greg
Storey, Paul Cox
To contact the reporters on this story:
Cordell Eddings in New York at +1-212-617-7344 or
ceddings@bloomberg.net;
Matthew Brown in London at +44-20-3216-4059 or
mbrown42@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Dave Liedtka at +1-212-617-8988 or dliedtka@bloomberg.net
2010-10-25 17:07:08.164 GMT
By Daniel Kruger and Cordell Eddings
Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The Treasury sold $10 billion of
five-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities at a negative
yield for the first time in the history of U.S. debt.
The securities drew a yield of negative 0.55 percent, the
same as the average forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 7 of
the Federal Reserve's 18 primary dealers. The bid-to-cover
ratio, which gauges demand by comparing total bids with the
amount of securities offered, was 2.84. The average at the last
120 auctions was 2.38. The sale was a reopening of an $11
billion offering in April.
"These negative yields are being driven by the Federal
Reserve and their push to increase inflation expectations,"
Michael Pond, co-head of U.S. rates strategy in New York at
Barclays Plc, said before the sale. The firm is one of 18
primary dealers required to bid at Treasury auctions.
The U.S. can only sell debt at a negative yield on
inflation-linked debt, according to McKayla Barden, a
spokeswoman at the Bureau of the Public Debt. Conventional
fixed-coupon Treasuries of a given maturity could be sold at
price above face value with a zero percent coupon if yields in
the market on that maturity were negative. The government began
selling inflation-protected debt in 1997.
Other Auctions
The sale was the first of four this week totaling $109
billion.
The last TIPS auction, on April 26, drew a yield of 0.550
percent, which was the lowest on record. The bid-to-cover ratio
was 3.15.
Treasury 30-year bonds rose for a second day, leading a
rally in Treasuries, amid speculation on how much debt the
Federal Reserve may buy to spur the economy and before data that
may show economic growth was below average.
Ten-year note yields fell for the first time in four days,
shrinking the difference between 2- and 10-year yields before
the Fed meets next week. Treasuries gained even as data showed
sales of existing homes rose. The U.S. is scheduled to sell $10
billion of five-year inflation-linked securities today, the
first of four note auctions this week totaling $109 billion.
"Whenever we see a bit of a selloff in the Treasury market
it is getting met, and will continue to get met, by renewed
buying until we get clarification with regards to the size and
frequency of the Fed's asset purchases," said Christian Cooper,
senior rates trader in New York at primary dealer Jefferies &
Co.
For Related News and Information:
Bond yield forecasts: BYFC <GO>
Top bond market news: TOP BON <GO>
World bond markets: WB <GO>
Credit market watch: CMW <GO>
Sovereign debt monitor: SOVR <GO>
Short-term liquidity SLIQ <GO>
Bonds for sale: PREL <GO>
--With assistance from Daniel Kruger in New York. Editors: Greg
Storey, Paul Cox
To contact the reporters on this story:
Cordell Eddings in New York at +1-212-617-7344 or
ceddings@bloomberg.net;
Matthew Brown in London at +44-20-3216-4059 or
mbrown42@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Dave Liedtka at +1-212-617-8988 or dliedtka@bloomberg.net
(BN) G-20 to Avoid ‘Competitive Devaluation’ of Currencies
G-20 to Avoid 'Competitive Devaluation' of Currencies (Update3)
2010-10-25 07:21:44.311 GMT
(Updates currencies in sixth paragraph. See {GMEET <GO>}
for more on the G-20 meeting.)
By Simon Kennedy and Shamim Adam
Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Group of 20 finance chiefs vowed to
avoid weakening currencies to lift exports and left it to a
leaders' meeting next month to flesh out how to further pressure
member China to allow faster gains in the yuan.
Finance ministers and central bankers ended talks in South
Korea Oct. 23 foreswearing "competitive devaluation" to calm
fears of a trade war stemming from using cheaper currencies to
spur growth. They called for reduced trade imbalances while
stopping short of a U.S. proposal for targets that was aimed at
making a yuan advance more palatable to China. Leaders will take
up the debate at the Seoul summit on Nov. 11-12.
The decisions taken in Gyeongju are unlikely to mark an end
to the dollar's recent slide or trigger a quicker rise in the
yuan, according to strategists at banks from UBS AG to Westpac
Banking Corp. Investors may now look for direction from the
Federal Reserve's meeting next week to decide whether to buy
more assets, a step that may undermine the dollar.
"Tensions may be reduced in the short term, but in the
longer term there are still imbalances," said Mansoor Mohi-
uddin, the Singapore-based head of global currency strategy at
UBS. The second-biggest currency trader expects the yuan to
reach 6.55 per dollar by year-end, an appreciation of less than
2 percent. "The focus will shift to the Fed's quantitative
easing for the dollar. The yuan will continue a modest
appreciation."
Dollar Retreats
The dollar slid today after the meetings omitted any
American pledge to refrain from further so-called quantitative
easing. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke received "criticism" in
Gyeongju after his move toward easier monetary policy pushed the
dollar down, German Economy Minister Rainer Bruederle said.
The dollar dropped to a 15-year low against the yen,
sinking as low as 80.66 yen. Against the euro, the dollar
dropped 0.8 percent to $1.4070 as of 8:08 a.m. in London.
"It's the wrong way to try to prevent or solve problems by
adding more liquidity," Bruederle said. "Excessive, permanent
money creation in my opinion is an indirect manipulation of an
exchange rate."
Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said at a conference
in Seoul today that "I agree that there's suggestion that
aggressive quantitative easing in the United States would create
devaluation pressure on the U.S. currency."
China Drop-by
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, who stopped in
Qingdao, China, yesterday for a meeting with Vice Premier Wang
Qishan, said in an interview he's optimistic that China will
"continue to move" on the yuan.
The G-20 called the economic recovery "fragile and
uneven." To increase the say of developing nations in the
International Monetary Fund's decisions, the G-20 endorsed what
IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn called the
"biggest reform ever" of its governance with European
authorities agreeing to cut their role.
It was the first time the economic policy makers took a
joint stance on exchange rates having previously resisted doing
so for fear of alienating China. The G-20 statement still
recycles language used at previous leaders' summits in London
and Toronto and falls short of the currency accords of the
1980s.
"I don't see anything that's going to discourage people
from resuming selling dollars and buying currencies that look to
be undervalued," said Sean Callow, a senior currency strategist
at Westpac in Sydney.
Export Concern
The officials met as China's restraint of the yuan and the
U.S. dollar's recent drop force trading partners including South
Korea and Brazil to temper gains in their own floating
currencies to remain competitive.
Geithner predicted China will allow the yuan to appreciate
more because officials there understand it's in the long-term
interest of domestic growth and global economic stability.
"They recognize it's important to the world," he said in
an interview on Oct. 23 with Bloomberg Television. As China's
currency stance affects more countries, "China recognizes that,
and I think we're going to see them continue to move."
David Bloom, global head of currency strategy at HSBC
Holdings Plc in London, nevertheless predicted "the 'currency
war' will persist at least through" to the Seoul meeting. That
may spark a dollar rally because ongoing frictions and the
threat they prompt greater capital controls and protectionism
may deter investors from riskier exchange rates, he said.
Japan's Stance
Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda reiterated that
the G-20 meeting didn't prompt any change in Japan's currency
policy, saying it stands ready to counter a rise in the yen if
needed.
To dilute the focus of such gatherings on currencies and
help rebalance the world economy away from excess U.S. demand
and Chinese savings, Geithner suggested goals for current-
account deficits or surpluses. While South Korea and Canada back
the strategy, it was challenged by major exporters Germany and
Japan.
The group will adopt "the full range of policies conducive
to reducing excessive imbalances" and making them sustainable,
the statement said. The IMF will deepen its monitoring of
currencies and continuously wide trade deficits.
The G-20 members will expand details by the Seoul forum, a
U.S. official said. Although Noda said Geithner wanted a 4
percent cap on trade imbalances, the official said the U.S.
doesn't expect a fixed target and may instead push for a range
aimed at delivering sustainable trade positions by 2015.
Trade Imbalances
"We're going to make it easier to sustain support in all
countries for more open trade by making sure that we address the
risk of persistently large trade imbalances," Geithner said.
Bundesbank President Axel Weber, who also attended the G-20
talks, said Germany shouldn't be blamed for having a current-
account surplus. Germany is four times more reliant on exports
than the U.S.
A current account is the broadest measure of trade because
it includes investment and transfer income, and it would be hard
to achieve any correction in one without a currency shifting.
Saudi Arabia, Germany, Russia and China all have surpluses
larger than 4 percent, while Turkey and South Africa have
deficits bigger than that, according to the IMF.
Even as it runs a trade surplus and builds currency
reserves, China has curbed the yuan's rise to about 2 percent
since a June pledge to introduce more flexibility, arguing
anything other than a gradual appreciation would cause social
and economic disruption. At the same time, the Fed has sent the
dollar tumbling by leaning toward buying more assets to tackle
unemployment near a 26-year high and weak inflation.
Emerging Markets
Caught in the middle, emerging markets are embracing
capital controls or intervening themselves to stay competitive
with China and slow the inflow of speculative cash. South Korea
is discussing several measures including a bank tax or levy on
financial transactions, and Brazil last week raised taxes on
foreign capital for the second time this month.
To appease critics, advanced economies agreed to be
"vigilant against excess volatility and disorderly movements in
exchange rates," the G-20 said. Geithner said the U.S. backs a
"strong dollar" and recognizes its global responsibility.
At the IMF, Europe will surrender two seats on the 24-
member executive board and more than 6 percent of so-called
quotas will pass to under-represented countries. Quotas
determine an IMF member's voting rights, financial commitment
and access to loans. As part of this process, G-20 officials
also agreed to double the IMF's permanent resources.
Yuan's Rise
For all the complaints it faces, China let the yuan gain the
most versus the dollar since 2005 in September and by more than
20 percent in the last five years. The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Chase
& Co. Asia Currency Index is up about 3 percent since August.
Such advances are likely to continue because "many key
interests seem to be aligned," Thomas Stolper, an economist at
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in London, said in an Oct. 22 report.
The U.S. needs a lower currency to help create jobs and the
alternative is even more Fed stimulus, which will end up
propelling more capital into Asia, he said.
U.S. companies from Costco Wholesale Corp. to Deere & Co.
have credited the weaker dollar for boosting earnings. Standard
& Poor's 500 Index firms that get more than half of their
revenue internationally have returned about 5.5 percentage
points more than those whose sales comes mostly from the U.S.
since the start of September, according to data compiled by
Bloomberg.
"Once the fact has been accepted that the dollar has to
weaken because there are no real alternatives it is all about
managing the process on a global scale," Stolper said.
Related News and Information: Top currency-market articles {TOP
FRX <GO>} Bond yield forecasts: {BYFC <GO>} Global economy
watch: {GEW <GO>} Central Bank Monetary Policy Rates {CBRT <GO>}
--With assistance from Eunkyung Seo, Rebecca Christie, Mark
Deen, Rainer Buergin, Keiko Ujikane, Frances Yoon, Peter Cook
and Paul Badertscher in Gyeongju, Sunil Jagtiani and Liz Capo
McCormick in New York. Editors: Brendan Murray, Chris Anstey
To contact the reporter on this story:
Simon Kennedy in Gyeongju, South Korea, at
skennedy4@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
John Fraher at +44-20-7673-2058 or jfraher@bloomberg.net
2010-10-25 07:21:44.311 GMT
(Updates currencies in sixth paragraph. See {GMEET <GO>}
for more on the G-20 meeting.)
By Simon Kennedy and Shamim Adam
Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Group of 20 finance chiefs vowed to
avoid weakening currencies to lift exports and left it to a
leaders' meeting next month to flesh out how to further pressure
member China to allow faster gains in the yuan.
Finance ministers and central bankers ended talks in South
Korea Oct. 23 foreswearing "competitive devaluation" to calm
fears of a trade war stemming from using cheaper currencies to
spur growth. They called for reduced trade imbalances while
stopping short of a U.S. proposal for targets that was aimed at
making a yuan advance more palatable to China. Leaders will take
up the debate at the Seoul summit on Nov. 11-12.
The decisions taken in Gyeongju are unlikely to mark an end
to the dollar's recent slide or trigger a quicker rise in the
yuan, according to strategists at banks from UBS AG to Westpac
Banking Corp. Investors may now look for direction from the
Federal Reserve's meeting next week to decide whether to buy
more assets, a step that may undermine the dollar.
"Tensions may be reduced in the short term, but in the
longer term there are still imbalances," said Mansoor Mohi-
uddin, the Singapore-based head of global currency strategy at
UBS. The second-biggest currency trader expects the yuan to
reach 6.55 per dollar by year-end, an appreciation of less than
2 percent. "The focus will shift to the Fed's quantitative
easing for the dollar. The yuan will continue a modest
appreciation."
Dollar Retreats
The dollar slid today after the meetings omitted any
American pledge to refrain from further so-called quantitative
easing. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke received "criticism" in
Gyeongju after his move toward easier monetary policy pushed the
dollar down, German Economy Minister Rainer Bruederle said.
The dollar dropped to a 15-year low against the yen,
sinking as low as 80.66 yen. Against the euro, the dollar
dropped 0.8 percent to $1.4070 as of 8:08 a.m. in London.
"It's the wrong way to try to prevent or solve problems by
adding more liquidity," Bruederle said. "Excessive, permanent
money creation in my opinion is an indirect manipulation of an
exchange rate."
Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said at a conference
in Seoul today that "I agree that there's suggestion that
aggressive quantitative easing in the United States would create
devaluation pressure on the U.S. currency."
China Drop-by
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, who stopped in
Qingdao, China, yesterday for a meeting with Vice Premier Wang
Qishan, said in an interview he's optimistic that China will
"continue to move" on the yuan.
The G-20 called the economic recovery "fragile and
uneven." To increase the say of developing nations in the
International Monetary Fund's decisions, the G-20 endorsed what
IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn called the
"biggest reform ever" of its governance with European
authorities agreeing to cut their role.
It was the first time the economic policy makers took a
joint stance on exchange rates having previously resisted doing
so for fear of alienating China. The G-20 statement still
recycles language used at previous leaders' summits in London
and Toronto and falls short of the currency accords of the
1980s.
"I don't see anything that's going to discourage people
from resuming selling dollars and buying currencies that look to
be undervalued," said Sean Callow, a senior currency strategist
at Westpac in Sydney.
Export Concern
The officials met as China's restraint of the yuan and the
U.S. dollar's recent drop force trading partners including South
Korea and Brazil to temper gains in their own floating
currencies to remain competitive.
Geithner predicted China will allow the yuan to appreciate
more because officials there understand it's in the long-term
interest of domestic growth and global economic stability.
"They recognize it's important to the world," he said in
an interview on Oct. 23 with Bloomberg Television. As China's
currency stance affects more countries, "China recognizes that,
and I think we're going to see them continue to move."
David Bloom, global head of currency strategy at HSBC
Holdings Plc in London, nevertheless predicted "the 'currency
war' will persist at least through" to the Seoul meeting. That
may spark a dollar rally because ongoing frictions and the
threat they prompt greater capital controls and protectionism
may deter investors from riskier exchange rates, he said.
Japan's Stance
Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda reiterated that
the G-20 meeting didn't prompt any change in Japan's currency
policy, saying it stands ready to counter a rise in the yen if
needed.
To dilute the focus of such gatherings on currencies and
help rebalance the world economy away from excess U.S. demand
and Chinese savings, Geithner suggested goals for current-
account deficits or surpluses. While South Korea and Canada back
the strategy, it was challenged by major exporters Germany and
Japan.
The group will adopt "the full range of policies conducive
to reducing excessive imbalances" and making them sustainable,
the statement said. The IMF will deepen its monitoring of
currencies and continuously wide trade deficits.
The G-20 members will expand details by the Seoul forum, a
U.S. official said. Although Noda said Geithner wanted a 4
percent cap on trade imbalances, the official said the U.S.
doesn't expect a fixed target and may instead push for a range
aimed at delivering sustainable trade positions by 2015.
Trade Imbalances
"We're going to make it easier to sustain support in all
countries for more open trade by making sure that we address the
risk of persistently large trade imbalances," Geithner said.
Bundesbank President Axel Weber, who also attended the G-20
talks, said Germany shouldn't be blamed for having a current-
account surplus. Germany is four times more reliant on exports
than the U.S.
A current account is the broadest measure of trade because
it includes investment and transfer income, and it would be hard
to achieve any correction in one without a currency shifting.
Saudi Arabia, Germany, Russia and China all have surpluses
larger than 4 percent, while Turkey and South Africa have
deficits bigger than that, according to the IMF.
Even as it runs a trade surplus and builds currency
reserves, China has curbed the yuan's rise to about 2 percent
since a June pledge to introduce more flexibility, arguing
anything other than a gradual appreciation would cause social
and economic disruption. At the same time, the Fed has sent the
dollar tumbling by leaning toward buying more assets to tackle
unemployment near a 26-year high and weak inflation.
Emerging Markets
Caught in the middle, emerging markets are embracing
capital controls or intervening themselves to stay competitive
with China and slow the inflow of speculative cash. South Korea
is discussing several measures including a bank tax or levy on
financial transactions, and Brazil last week raised taxes on
foreign capital for the second time this month.
To appease critics, advanced economies agreed to be
"vigilant against excess volatility and disorderly movements in
exchange rates," the G-20 said. Geithner said the U.S. backs a
"strong dollar" and recognizes its global responsibility.
At the IMF, Europe will surrender two seats on the 24-
member executive board and more than 6 percent of so-called
quotas will pass to under-represented countries. Quotas
determine an IMF member's voting rights, financial commitment
and access to loans. As part of this process, G-20 officials
also agreed to double the IMF's permanent resources.
Yuan's Rise
For all the complaints it faces, China let the yuan gain the
most versus the dollar since 2005 in September and by more than
20 percent in the last five years. The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Chase
& Co. Asia Currency Index is up about 3 percent since August.
Such advances are likely to continue because "many key
interests seem to be aligned," Thomas Stolper, an economist at
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in London, said in an Oct. 22 report.
The U.S. needs a lower currency to help create jobs and the
alternative is even more Fed stimulus, which will end up
propelling more capital into Asia, he said.
U.S. companies from Costco Wholesale Corp. to Deere & Co.
have credited the weaker dollar for boosting earnings. Standard
& Poor's 500 Index firms that get more than half of their
revenue internationally have returned about 5.5 percentage
points more than those whose sales comes mostly from the U.S.
since the start of September, according to data compiled by
Bloomberg.
"Once the fact has been accepted that the dollar has to
weaken because there are no real alternatives it is all about
managing the process on a global scale," Stolper said.
Related News and Information: Top currency-market articles {TOP
FRX <GO>} Bond yield forecasts: {BYFC <GO>} Global economy
watch: {GEW <GO>} Central Bank Monetary Policy Rates {CBRT <GO>}
--With assistance from Eunkyung Seo, Rebecca Christie, Mark
Deen, Rainer Buergin, Keiko Ujikane, Frances Yoon, Peter Cook
and Paul Badertscher in Gyeongju, Sunil Jagtiani and Liz Capo
McCormick in New York. Editors: Brendan Murray, Chris Anstey
To contact the reporter on this story:
Simon Kennedy in Gyeongju, South Korea, at
skennedy4@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
John Fraher at +44-20-7673-2058 or jfraher@bloomberg.net
quinta-feira, 30 de setembro de 2010
Chicago-ISM Business Activity Index Rose to 60.4 in
Chicago-ISM Business Activity Index Rose to 60.4 in September
The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said today its business barometer climbed to 60.4 in September from 56.7 the prior month. Figures greater than 50 signal expansion. Economists forecast ...
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The attached story matches the criteria for the News Alert named "WORLDWIDE HOT (SALT)". Type {97 <GO>} to view the story on wire BN (BLOOMBERG News).
This story was classified to the following categories:
Topics
*ALLHOT All Hot Stories
*BUSINESS Business News
*ECOHOT Economy Hot Headlines
*SRCRANK1 Rank 1 Sources
*USTOPZ2 TOP United States Zone 2
The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said today its business barometer climbed to 60.4 in September from 56.7 the prior month. Figures greater than 50 signal expansion. Economists forecast ...
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The attached story matches the criteria for the News Alert named "WORLDWIDE HOT (SALT)". Type {97 <GO>} to view the story on wire BN (BLOOMBERG News).
This story was classified to the following categories:
Topics
*ALLHOT All Hot Stories
*BUSINESS Business News
*ECOHOT Economy Hot Headlines
*SRCRANK1 Rank 1 Sources
*USTOPZ2 TOP United States Zone 2
quarta-feira, 29 de setembro de 2010
(BN) Brazilian Stocks Raised to ‘Overweight’ at JPMorgan
Brazilian Stocks Raised to 'Overweight' at JPMorgan (Update1)
2010-09-29 11:08:45.667 GMT
(Adds quote in fourth paragraph.)
By Laura Price and Michael Patterson
Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Brazilian stocks were upgraded to
"overweight" by JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s Latin America
strategists, who cited attractive valuations, "moderate"
interest-rate increases and declining political risks.
Investors should hold more Brazilian shares in their Latin
America portfolios than are represented in benchmark indexes,
JPMorgan strategists led by Ben Laidler in New York wrote in a
research report dated yesterday. The strategists didn't include
their previous recommendation in the report and said investors
should keep "underweight" Brazil holdings within their global
emerging-market funds.
Brazil's Bovespa Index has advanced 0.9 percent this year,
trailing the 5 percent gain in the MSCI EM Latin America Index,
as central bank rate increases, a slowdown in Chinese demand,
upcoming Presidential elections and Petroleo Brasileiro SA's $70
billion share sale deterred investors. Those "overhangs" are
receding and may spur inflows into Brazil funds, the strategists
wrote. Dilma Rousseff, the chosen successor of President Luiz
Inacio Lula da Silva, is leading voter opinion polls ahead of
the Oct. 3 election.
"The market is now attractively valued, not well owned,
and performance has been held back by a number of overhangs that
are all going," the JPMorgan strategists wrote. "The rate
cycle has been benign, capitalization process over, and
Presidential election is this weekend."
The strategists downgraded Mexican stocks to "neutral,"
saying in the report that the country's "cyclical" economic
recovery has peaked.
For Related News and Information:
Emerging-market news: NI EM <GO>
For emerging-market stocks news: TNI EM STK <GO>
Developing economy market moves: EMMV <GO>
Emerging-market economic statistics STAT4 <GO>
World equity index rankings: WEIS <GO>
--Editors: Alex Nicholson, Peter Branton.
To contact the reporters on this story:
Michael Patterson in London at +44-20-7073-3102 or
mpatterson10@bloomberg.net;
Laura Price at +44-20-7330-7249 or
lprice3@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Gavin Serkin at +44-20-7673-2467 or
gserkin@bloomberg.net.
2010-09-29 11:08:45.667 GMT
(Adds quote in fourth paragraph.)
By Laura Price and Michael Patterson
Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Brazilian stocks were upgraded to
"overweight" by JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s Latin America
strategists, who cited attractive valuations, "moderate"
interest-rate increases and declining political risks.
Investors should hold more Brazilian shares in their Latin
America portfolios than are represented in benchmark indexes,
JPMorgan strategists led by Ben Laidler in New York wrote in a
research report dated yesterday. The strategists didn't include
their previous recommendation in the report and said investors
should keep "underweight" Brazil holdings within their global
emerging-market funds.
Brazil's Bovespa Index has advanced 0.9 percent this year,
trailing the 5 percent gain in the MSCI EM Latin America Index,
as central bank rate increases, a slowdown in Chinese demand,
upcoming Presidential elections and Petroleo Brasileiro SA's $70
billion share sale deterred investors. Those "overhangs" are
receding and may spur inflows into Brazil funds, the strategists
wrote. Dilma Rousseff, the chosen successor of President Luiz
Inacio Lula da Silva, is leading voter opinion polls ahead of
the Oct. 3 election.
"The market is now attractively valued, not well owned,
and performance has been held back by a number of overhangs that
are all going," the JPMorgan strategists wrote. "The rate
cycle has been benign, capitalization process over, and
Presidential election is this weekend."
The strategists downgraded Mexican stocks to "neutral,"
saying in the report that the country's "cyclical" economic
recovery has peaked.
For Related News and Information:
Emerging-market news: NI EM <GO>
For emerging-market stocks news: TNI EM STK <GO>
Developing economy market moves: EMMV <GO>
Emerging-market economic statistics STAT4 <GO>
World equity index rankings: WEIS <GO>
--Editors: Alex Nicholson, Peter Branton.
To contact the reporters on this story:
Michael Patterson in London at +44-20-7073-3102 or
mpatterson10@bloomberg.net;
Laura Price at +44-20-7330-7249 or
lprice3@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Gavin Serkin at +44-20-7673-2467 or
gserkin@bloomberg.net.
quinta-feira, 23 de setembro de 2010
(BN) Petrobras ‘Reverse Privatization’ Looms on Brazil (BLOOMBERG)
Petrobras 'Reverse Privatization' Looms on Brazil (Update1)
2010-09-23 13:47:38.523 GMT
(Updates shares in sixth paragraph.)
By Peter Millard
Sept 23 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil is reclaiming part of the
Petroleo Brasileiro SA stake it sold to investors a decade ago
in a record $78 billion share sale today.
The government will boost its stake in Petrobras, Latin
America's second-largest company by market value, to as much as
55 percent from 39 percent now, Adriano Pires, head of the
Brazilian Center for Infrastructure, a research group based in
Rio de Janeiro, said yesterday in a telephone interview.
Petrobras slumped 29 percent this year, the second-worst
performing major oil stock after BP Plc., on concern the sale
will cut earnings and boost state interference after the company
discovered the largest oilfield in three decades. The Petrobras
transaction signals President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is
seeking a greater role for the state in the economy ahead of the
likely election of chosen successor Dilma Rousseff next month.
"Many are worried Petrobras is really becoming a policy
arm of the Brazilian government," Harold Sharon, who helps
manage $100 billion including Petrobras shares at Lord Abbett in
Jersey City, said in an interview. "As they sit back and look
at this entire development, it looks far too interventionist."
Petrobras is planning to sell as many as 2.718 billion
common shares and 1.983 billion preferred shares. The government
is buying about $42.5 billion-worth of stock in return for the
right to develop about 5 billion barrels of reserves. State-run
financial institutions such as the BNDES development bank will
likely buy additional shares for cash, UBS AG said Sept. 21.
Shares Rise
Petrobras rose 42 centavos, or 1.6 percent, to 26.40 reais
as of 10:42 a.m. in Sao Paulo trading. The stock declined about
28 percent this year.
The Petrobras sale would amount to more than 20 percent of
the value of all equity offerings already completed in 2010 and
be more than three times the record $22.1 billion raised by
Agricultural Bank of China in July, according to Bloomberg data.
Lula is strengthening control over the domestic oil
industry after the Tupi discovery in 2007, the largest find in
the Western Hemisphere since Mexico's Cantarell in 1976. Lula
says Brazil is relying on the country's oil wealth to help raise
the nation's 192 million people out of poverty.
"It's a clear process of reverse privatization," Rogerio
Freitas, who manages about $25 million at Teorica Investimentos
in Rio de Janeiro, said in a telephone interview. "The
Brazilian public sector will increase its participation, and
that's not good."
Government Agencies
The government and state agencies will buy 56 percent to 69
percent of the offering, allowing Petrobras to place all the
shares, Lilyanna Yang, an analyst at UBS AG in New York, said in
a Sept. 21 note to clients.
Telephone messages left at Lula's press office in Brasilia
were not returned. A spokeswoman at Petrobras's press office,
who declined to be identified under company policy, wouldn't
comment on the prospect of increased government control.
Brazil, the world's largest producer of orange juice and
coffee, is taking advantage of rising prices to exert greater
control over commodity companies. Lula has asked Vale SA, the
world's largest iron ore company, to invest in steelmaking
plants in Brazil instead of sending iron ore abroad, while
Dilma, a former Petrobras chairman, said Vale should face
tougher requirements for tapping Brazil's natural resources,
according to a February interview with Epoca magazine.
'State-Oriented Discourse'
Dilma "has a very state-orientated discourse," Roberto
Padovani, chief economist at Banco WestLB do Brasil SA in Sao
Paulo, said in a Sept. 22 telephone interview.
Brazil's government owns a 32 percent stake in Petrobras
and controls the company through 55.6 percent of voting shares.
The government holdings of Petrobras's voting shares will
probably rise to about 65 percent after the share sale,
according to the Infrastructure Institute's Pires.
Vale is Latin America's largest company.
Since the government sold more than a quarter of
Petrobras's shares for about $4.1 billion in 2000, the company
has invested in boosting the search for oil. State-owned rivals
Petroleos Mexicanos and Petroleos de Venezuela SA struggled to
stem declines and Pemex posted five straight years of lower
output. Petrobras expects to double output by 2020.
Brazil's development bank, known as BNDES, will buy enough
shares in the Petrobras offer to maintain its shareholding,
Andre Carvalhal, head of the international market department at
BNDES, said in a Sept. 15 interview. BNDES is the second-largest
shareholder in Petrobras after Brazil's government.
$379 Billion
About $379 billion has been raised by companies selling
shares this year, the same pace as a year ago, data compiled by
Bloomberg show. A total of 167 equity offerings valued at $29.5
billion have been postponed or withdrawn around the world this
year, the most since at least 1998, the data show.
The share sale is putting the state's interests above those
of minority shareholders, said Ed Kuczma, an emerging markets
analyst at Van Eck Associates in New York, which manages $21
billion and sold Petrobras shares this quarter.
"We vote with where we put our funds and decided to get
out," Kuczma said in a telephone interview. "A lot of the
investment is going toward downstream facilities like refining,
which tend to have lower returns."
Petrobras plans to spend $73.6 billion on refining and
distribution in the five years through 2014. Profit margins
there are typically lower than in its exploration and production
business. That's about one third of planned spending of about
$224 billion. The company will "assist" the government in
meeting Brazilian fuel demand, it said in a Sept. 3 prospectus.
'Big Offering'
"This big offering is coming at a time when there's more
concern about the government moving to the left," said Nick
Robinson, who helps manage $25 billion in emerging-market assets
at Aberdeen Asset Management Inc. and owns Petrobras shares.
"Most of the refineries are in the north and the current
government gets most of its support from the north."
Brazil ended Petrobras's monopoly on exploration and
production in 1997 to create competition and encourage the
discovery of oil to fuel the domestic economy. The company also
sold shares to finance exploration, with the government
retaining control of the company's voting shares.
"The Brazilian federal government, as our principal
shareholder, may cause us to pursue certain macroeconomic and
social objectives," Petrobras said in a Sept. 3 prospectus.
"We may engage in activities that give preference to the
objectives of the Brazilian federal government rather than to
our own economic and business objectives," the company said.
Petrobras on Sept. 17 doubled the amount of stock that can
be issued in an additional allotment to as much as 20 percent of
the main sale. That's on top of an already announced
supplementary over-allotment of as much as 5 percent.
The offering has "very strong support from domestic
pension funds and the government," Christopher Palmer, who
oversees about $5 billion as head of global emerging markets at
Gartmore Investment Management Ltd. in London, said in a Sept.
21 telephone interview. "The government thinks this is a good
investment."
Top Stories: {TOP<GO>}
--With additional reporting by Alexander Cuadros in Sao Paulo
and Tal Barak Harif in New York. Editors: Dale Crofts, John
Viljoen.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Peter Millard in Rio de Janeiro at +55-21-2125-2531 or
Pmillard1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Dale Crofts at +54-11-4321-7735 or
dcrofts@bloomberg.net
2010-09-23 13:47:38.523 GMT
(Updates shares in sixth paragraph.)
By Peter Millard
Sept 23 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil is reclaiming part of the
Petroleo Brasileiro SA stake it sold to investors a decade ago
in a record $78 billion share sale today.
The government will boost its stake in Petrobras, Latin
America's second-largest company by market value, to as much as
55 percent from 39 percent now, Adriano Pires, head of the
Brazilian Center for Infrastructure, a research group based in
Rio de Janeiro, said yesterday in a telephone interview.
Petrobras slumped 29 percent this year, the second-worst
performing major oil stock after BP Plc., on concern the sale
will cut earnings and boost state interference after the company
discovered the largest oilfield in three decades. The Petrobras
transaction signals President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is
seeking a greater role for the state in the economy ahead of the
likely election of chosen successor Dilma Rousseff next month.
"Many are worried Petrobras is really becoming a policy
arm of the Brazilian government," Harold Sharon, who helps
manage $100 billion including Petrobras shares at Lord Abbett in
Jersey City, said in an interview. "As they sit back and look
at this entire development, it looks far too interventionist."
Petrobras is planning to sell as many as 2.718 billion
common shares and 1.983 billion preferred shares. The government
is buying about $42.5 billion-worth of stock in return for the
right to develop about 5 billion barrels of reserves. State-run
financial institutions such as the BNDES development bank will
likely buy additional shares for cash, UBS AG said Sept. 21.
Shares Rise
Petrobras rose 42 centavos, or 1.6 percent, to 26.40 reais
as of 10:42 a.m. in Sao Paulo trading. The stock declined about
28 percent this year.
The Petrobras sale would amount to more than 20 percent of
the value of all equity offerings already completed in 2010 and
be more than three times the record $22.1 billion raised by
Agricultural Bank of China in July, according to Bloomberg data.
Lula is strengthening control over the domestic oil
industry after the Tupi discovery in 2007, the largest find in
the Western Hemisphere since Mexico's Cantarell in 1976. Lula
says Brazil is relying on the country's oil wealth to help raise
the nation's 192 million people out of poverty.
"It's a clear process of reverse privatization," Rogerio
Freitas, who manages about $25 million at Teorica Investimentos
in Rio de Janeiro, said in a telephone interview. "The
Brazilian public sector will increase its participation, and
that's not good."
Government Agencies
The government and state agencies will buy 56 percent to 69
percent of the offering, allowing Petrobras to place all the
shares, Lilyanna Yang, an analyst at UBS AG in New York, said in
a Sept. 21 note to clients.
Telephone messages left at Lula's press office in Brasilia
were not returned. A spokeswoman at Petrobras's press office,
who declined to be identified under company policy, wouldn't
comment on the prospect of increased government control.
Brazil, the world's largest producer of orange juice and
coffee, is taking advantage of rising prices to exert greater
control over commodity companies. Lula has asked Vale SA, the
world's largest iron ore company, to invest in steelmaking
plants in Brazil instead of sending iron ore abroad, while
Dilma, a former Petrobras chairman, said Vale should face
tougher requirements for tapping Brazil's natural resources,
according to a February interview with Epoca magazine.
'State-Oriented Discourse'
Dilma "has a very state-orientated discourse," Roberto
Padovani, chief economist at Banco WestLB do Brasil SA in Sao
Paulo, said in a Sept. 22 telephone interview.
Brazil's government owns a 32 percent stake in Petrobras
and controls the company through 55.6 percent of voting shares.
The government holdings of Petrobras's voting shares will
probably rise to about 65 percent after the share sale,
according to the Infrastructure Institute's Pires.
Vale is Latin America's largest company.
Since the government sold more than a quarter of
Petrobras's shares for about $4.1 billion in 2000, the company
has invested in boosting the search for oil. State-owned rivals
Petroleos Mexicanos and Petroleos de Venezuela SA struggled to
stem declines and Pemex posted five straight years of lower
output. Petrobras expects to double output by 2020.
Brazil's development bank, known as BNDES, will buy enough
shares in the Petrobras offer to maintain its shareholding,
Andre Carvalhal, head of the international market department at
BNDES, said in a Sept. 15 interview. BNDES is the second-largest
shareholder in Petrobras after Brazil's government.
$379 Billion
About $379 billion has been raised by companies selling
shares this year, the same pace as a year ago, data compiled by
Bloomberg show. A total of 167 equity offerings valued at $29.5
billion have been postponed or withdrawn around the world this
year, the most since at least 1998, the data show.
The share sale is putting the state's interests above those
of minority shareholders, said Ed Kuczma, an emerging markets
analyst at Van Eck Associates in New York, which manages $21
billion and sold Petrobras shares this quarter.
"We vote with where we put our funds and decided to get
out," Kuczma said in a telephone interview. "A lot of the
investment is going toward downstream facilities like refining,
which tend to have lower returns."
Petrobras plans to spend $73.6 billion on refining and
distribution in the five years through 2014. Profit margins
there are typically lower than in its exploration and production
business. That's about one third of planned spending of about
$224 billion. The company will "assist" the government in
meeting Brazilian fuel demand, it said in a Sept. 3 prospectus.
'Big Offering'
"This big offering is coming at a time when there's more
concern about the government moving to the left," said Nick
Robinson, who helps manage $25 billion in emerging-market assets
at Aberdeen Asset Management Inc. and owns Petrobras shares.
"Most of the refineries are in the north and the current
government gets most of its support from the north."
Brazil ended Petrobras's monopoly on exploration and
production in 1997 to create competition and encourage the
discovery of oil to fuel the domestic economy. The company also
sold shares to finance exploration, with the government
retaining control of the company's voting shares.
"The Brazilian federal government, as our principal
shareholder, may cause us to pursue certain macroeconomic and
social objectives," Petrobras said in a Sept. 3 prospectus.
"We may engage in activities that give preference to the
objectives of the Brazilian federal government rather than to
our own economic and business objectives," the company said.
Petrobras on Sept. 17 doubled the amount of stock that can
be issued in an additional allotment to as much as 20 percent of
the main sale. That's on top of an already announced
supplementary over-allotment of as much as 5 percent.
The offering has "very strong support from domestic
pension funds and the government," Christopher Palmer, who
oversees about $5 billion as head of global emerging markets at
Gartmore Investment Management Ltd. in London, said in a Sept.
21 telephone interview. "The government thinks this is a good
investment."
Top Stories: {TOP<GO>}
--With additional reporting by Alexander Cuadros in Sao Paulo
and Tal Barak Harif in New York. Editors: Dale Crofts, John
Viljoen.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Peter Millard in Rio de Janeiro at +55-21-2125-2531 or
Pmillard1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Dale Crofts at +54-11-4321-7735 or
dcrofts@bloomberg.net
quarta-feira, 22 de setembro de 2010
segunda-feira, 20 de setembro de 2010
(AULA) Jorge Lemann, novo rei do hambúrguer podia ter sido pobretão
Jorge Lemann, novo rei do hambúrguer que podia ser 'pobretão'
2010-09-20 10:40:36.230 GMT
Por Fabiola Moura
20 de setembro (Bloomberg) -- Jorge Paulo Lemann perdeu seu
primeiro emprego, como colunista do setor financeiro no Jornal
do Brasil, após se formar em economia na Universidade de
Harvard, em 1961. Tempos depois, a corretora que fundou quase
quebrou numa virada abrupta do mercado brasileiro.
"Logo depois ele desembestou numa carreira extraordinária",
disse Alberto Dines, 78, então editor-chefe do jornal com sede
no Rio de Janeiro. "Se ele tivesse continuado jornalista, ia ser
um pobretão."
Em três décadas de negócios, Lemann, 71, orquestrou a
aquisição da Anheuser-Busch Cos., fundou uma corretora que se
transformou no maior banco de investimentos do País e acumulou
um patrimônio de US$ 11,5 bilhões (R$ 19,8 bilhões), tornando-se
o segundo brasileiro mais rico, depois do dono do EBX Group Co
Ltd., Eike Batista, de acordo com a revista Forbes. Sua última
transação foi a compra do Burger King Holdings Inc. por US$ 3,3
bilhões, a maior aquisição de uma rede de restaurantes em pelo
menos uma década.
O homem por trás da aquisição da segunda maior rede de
lanchonetes dos Estados Unidos já foi campeão de tênis várias
vezes e fundou seu próprio banco de investimentos aos 32 anos.
Lemann, conhecido por raramente falar com a imprensa, não quis
ser entrevistado para esta matéria, segundo sua assessoria de
imprensa externa.
"Pensar pequeno e pensar grande dá o mesmo trabalho. Mas
pensar grande te liberta dos detalhes insignificantes", disse
Lemann, segundo reportagem da revista Época, na edição de 8 de
abril de 2008.
'Estilo espartano'
Antigos colegas o descrevem como um executivo frugal, que
evita aparições na imprensa e valoriza a simplicidade. "Ele
sempre teve um estilo muito espartano", disse Armínio Fraga, ex-
presidente do Banco Central, que aos 28 anos conseguiu seu
primeiro emprego no setor financeiro no Banco de Investimentos
Garantia SA, de Lemann. "Ele sempre sinalizou essa visão muito
simples, objetiva das coisas e da vida em geral."
Lemann e seus sócios na 3G Capital, com sede em Nova York,
os bilionários brasileiros Marcel Herrmann Telles e Carlos
Alberto da Veiga Sicupira, assinaram em 2 de setembro um
contrato para adquirir o Burger King, com sede em Miami, pagando
US$ 24 por ação, 46 por cento acima do preço de fechamento de 31
de agosto. A ação fechou a US$ 23,80 em 17 de setembro na bolsa
de Nova York.
A 3G está assumindo uma rede de lanchonetes castigada pela
queda de lucros e vendas que se desaceleraram por dois anos
seguidos durante a recessão americana. A oferta pelas ações do
Burger King começou no dia 16 de setembro e termina no dia 14 de
outubro.
A operação enfatiza a estratégia de Lemann de investir em
empresas de varejo. Ele e seus sócios têm participações na belga
Anheuser-Busch InBev NV, a maior cervejaria do mundo, e na
brasileira Lojas Americanas SA, maior varejista de descontos do
Brasil, com 479 lojas. Também é acionista da América Latina
Logística SA, maior operadora de ferrovias do País.
'Extremamente disciplinado'
Lemann tem "hábitos muito simples, é extremamente
disciplinado", qualidades provavelmente adquiridas nas quadras
de tênis, afirma Claudio Haddad, presidente do Insper, o antigo
Ibmec, instituto de ensino e pesquisa em São Paulo, e ex-
diretor-superintendente do Garantia.
"Ele foi campeão brasileiro cinco vezes, campeão carioca
umas 20 vezes e campeão mundial de veteranos três vezes", disse
Haddad. "Ele não bebe, dorme cedo, acorda cedo, pratica esporte
todo dia." Haddad, 64, disse ter um investimento "pequeno" em um
fundo do 3G. Ele não quis revelar o montante.
Tênis
"Pelo tanto que jogava, percebi que dificilmente estaria
entre os dez melhores do mundo", disse Lemann, segundo a
reportagem da Época. "Resolvi parar. Percebi que não seria um
astro."
Lemann pode ser melhor descrito como um "calvinista", disse
Haddad numa entrevista por telefone de São Paulo. Seus
funcionários entenderam exatamente o que isso significava depois
que a cervejaria belga InBev NV, que era controlada em parte por
Lemann e seus sócios, comprou a Anheuser-Busch, com sede em St.
Louis, EUA, em 2008.
Cerca de 1.400 pessoas perderam logo seus empregos. Foram
cortadas mordomias que iam de voos em classe executiva a
Blackberrys e caixas de cerveja de graça, segundo uma pessoa
próxima ao negócio que não está autorizada a falar em público.
Mesmo o brasileiro Carlos Brito, presidente da empresa, passou a
voar de classe econômica.
"Eles não fazem a menor questão de aparecer", Fraga, 53,
fundador da Gávea Investimentos Ltda, fundo de hedge do Rio,
disse sobre Lemann e seus sócios. A Gávea tem uma participação
na Arcos Dorados, com sede em Buenos Aires, operadora das
franquias do McDonald's Corp. na América Latina, e também na
Lojas Americanas.
Pai suíço
Lemann, classificado pela Forbes como o terceiro homem mais
rico da América Latina e o 48º do mundo, é filho de um
empresário suíço. Ele cresceu no Rio de Janeiro e foi para
Harvard, nos EUA, para estudar economia e negócios.
Depois de se formar em economia, em 1961, voltou para o
Brasil para trabalhar com finanças. Dines pediu para Lemann
assumir uma coluna sobre o mercado de capitais para melhorar a
cobertura do setor no jornal, embora o rapaz nunca tivesse
trabalhado como jornalista antes. Logo depois, Dines mudou de
ideia, ao saber que Lemann estava trabalhando como corretor.
Em 1971, Lemann, que também fez mestrado em administração
de empresas em Harvard, fundou o Banco de Investimentos Garantia
no Rio, e este logo passou a ser conhecido como o lugar onde os
profissionais talentosos disputavam empregos. O Garantia prestou
serviços para multinacionais como Philip Morris International
Inc. e Colgate-Palmolive Co., ambas com sede em Nova York,
ajudando-as a realizar aquisições e a se expandir no País.
Espírito empreendedor
"Ele sempre liderou dando o exemplo, sempre delegando e
procurando dar espaço para as pessoas empreenderem e crescerem",
disse Fraga, presidente do conselho da BM&FBovespa SA, com sede
em São Paulo, operadora da maior bolsa da América Latina. "Era
uma cultura claramente meritocrática, capaz de atrair e reter
pessoas de grande talento, energia e disposição."
O início da sua carreira quase terminou em fracasso. Em
1971, Lemann e seus sócios pagaram US$ 800.000 por uma vaga na
bolsa de valores do Rio de Janeiro, segundo um artigo da Forbes
de 1996. Algumas semanas depois, o mercado despencou 60 por
cento e eles quase perderam todo o capital, segundo a revista.
O Garantia resistiu e, em 1988, foi adquirido pelo Credit
Suisse First Boston por quase US$ 1 bilhão, incluindo pagamentos
posteriores vinculados ao desempenho do banco, segundo Haddad.
Lemann então fundou a GP Investimentos com Sicupira e Telles.
Uma das primeiras transações foi a compra da Lojas
Americanas. Quando venderam sua participação na GP, em 2004, os
sócios tinham aumentado os ativos para R$ 3,6 bilhões e gerado
retornos anuais médios sobre os investimentos de 23 por cento em
dólar.
Lemann usou parte de sua riqueza para ajudar a melhorar a
educação no Brasil, onde o índice de analfabetismo estava em 9,7
por cento no ano passado, criando duas fundações para atuar em
frentes distintas.
'Mundo melhor'
A Fundação Lemann, criada em 2001, dá cursos para diretores
de escolas públicas e secretários da educação municipais para
ajudá-los a lidar com os desafios de se trabalhar no sistema de
educação pública do País. O orçamento anual da fundação é de R$
10 milhões.
"Claramente a visão de mundo dele é de que quem move o
mundo são as pessoas", Ilona Becskeházy, 45, diretora executiva
da Fundação Lemann, disse numa entrevista por telefone de São
Paulo. "O País depende da qualidade dessas pessoas, de
qualidades intrínsecas e qualidades que têm a ver com coisas
aprendidas através da educação."
O website da Fundação Lemann abre com uma frase assinada
por seu fundador: "Ajudar pessoas a atingir seu potencial e
apoiá-las para que elas, por sua vez, possam ajudar outras no
futuro é um caminho para tornar o mundo melhor".
Viagem à praia
Outra fundação de Lemann, a Fundação Estudar, foi criada em
1991 e oferece bolsas de estudos para brasileiros estudarem
economia, administração, política pública e direito, afirmou a
diretora-executiva Thais Junqueira Franco Xavier. "A ideia é
formar gente competente, capaz."
Ao mesmo tempo em que gasta seu dinheiro para melhorar a
sociedade brasileira, Lemann é conhecido por seus valores de um
trabalhador simples. Haddad lembrou-se de uma história que se
costuma contar sobre Lemann, da década de 80 -- quando ele
estava viajando no seu Volkswagen Passat para um fim de semana
na praia e parou para abastecer. Enquanto enchia o tanque, o
posto foi assaltado e os bandidos ignoraram totalmente o
bilionário.
"Como ele estava vestido com simplicidade e dirigindo um
Passat velho, acharam que ele era um João-ninguém", disse
Haddad. "Se soubessem que ele era o principal acionista do
Garantia, o principal acionista da Lojas Americanas,
provavelmente teriam tentado fazer alguma coisa com ele."
Para Mais Notícias e Informações:
Principais matérias em português: {TOP BR <GO>}
Informações sobre o 3G: {3688370Z US <Equity> RELS <GO>}
Operações do Burger King: {BKC US <Equity> TCNI MNA <GO>}
Matérias em português: {NH PBN <GO>}
Principais matérias em inglês: {TOP <GO>}
Principais matérias sobre América Latina: {TOPL <GO>}
--Editores: Alan Mirabella, Helder Marinho, José Sergio Osse
Para entrar em contato com a repórter:
Fabiola Moura, em Nova York, +1-212-617-5772 ou
fdemoura@bloomberg.net
Para entrar em contato com os editores responsáveis:
David Papadopoulos, +1-212-617-5105 ou
papadopoulos@bloomberg.net
Francisco Marcelino, +55-11-3048-4530 ou
mdeoliveira@bloomberg.net
2010-09-20 10:40:36.230 GMT
Por Fabiola Moura
20 de setembro (Bloomberg) -- Jorge Paulo Lemann perdeu seu
primeiro emprego, como colunista do setor financeiro no Jornal
do Brasil, após se formar em economia na Universidade de
Harvard, em 1961. Tempos depois, a corretora que fundou quase
quebrou numa virada abrupta do mercado brasileiro.
"Logo depois ele desembestou numa carreira extraordinária",
disse Alberto Dines, 78, então editor-chefe do jornal com sede
no Rio de Janeiro. "Se ele tivesse continuado jornalista, ia ser
um pobretão."
Em três décadas de negócios, Lemann, 71, orquestrou a
aquisição da Anheuser-Busch Cos., fundou uma corretora que se
transformou no maior banco de investimentos do País e acumulou
um patrimônio de US$ 11,5 bilhões (R$ 19,8 bilhões), tornando-se
o segundo brasileiro mais rico, depois do dono do EBX Group Co
Ltd., Eike Batista, de acordo com a revista Forbes. Sua última
transação foi a compra do Burger King Holdings Inc. por US$ 3,3
bilhões, a maior aquisição de uma rede de restaurantes em pelo
menos uma década.
O homem por trás da aquisição da segunda maior rede de
lanchonetes dos Estados Unidos já foi campeão de tênis várias
vezes e fundou seu próprio banco de investimentos aos 32 anos.
Lemann, conhecido por raramente falar com a imprensa, não quis
ser entrevistado para esta matéria, segundo sua assessoria de
imprensa externa.
"Pensar pequeno e pensar grande dá o mesmo trabalho. Mas
pensar grande te liberta dos detalhes insignificantes", disse
Lemann, segundo reportagem da revista Época, na edição de 8 de
abril de 2008.
'Estilo espartano'
Antigos colegas o descrevem como um executivo frugal, que
evita aparições na imprensa e valoriza a simplicidade. "Ele
sempre teve um estilo muito espartano", disse Armínio Fraga, ex-
presidente do Banco Central, que aos 28 anos conseguiu seu
primeiro emprego no setor financeiro no Banco de Investimentos
Garantia SA, de Lemann. "Ele sempre sinalizou essa visão muito
simples, objetiva das coisas e da vida em geral."
Lemann e seus sócios na 3G Capital, com sede em Nova York,
os bilionários brasileiros Marcel Herrmann Telles e Carlos
Alberto da Veiga Sicupira, assinaram em 2 de setembro um
contrato para adquirir o Burger King, com sede em Miami, pagando
US$ 24 por ação, 46 por cento acima do preço de fechamento de 31
de agosto. A ação fechou a US$ 23,80 em 17 de setembro na bolsa
de Nova York.
A 3G está assumindo uma rede de lanchonetes castigada pela
queda de lucros e vendas que se desaceleraram por dois anos
seguidos durante a recessão americana. A oferta pelas ações do
Burger King começou no dia 16 de setembro e termina no dia 14 de
outubro.
A operação enfatiza a estratégia de Lemann de investir em
empresas de varejo. Ele e seus sócios têm participações na belga
Anheuser-Busch InBev NV, a maior cervejaria do mundo, e na
brasileira Lojas Americanas SA, maior varejista de descontos do
Brasil, com 479 lojas. Também é acionista da América Latina
Logística SA, maior operadora de ferrovias do País.
'Extremamente disciplinado'
Lemann tem "hábitos muito simples, é extremamente
disciplinado", qualidades provavelmente adquiridas nas quadras
de tênis, afirma Claudio Haddad, presidente do Insper, o antigo
Ibmec, instituto de ensino e pesquisa em São Paulo, e ex-
diretor-superintendente do Garantia.
"Ele foi campeão brasileiro cinco vezes, campeão carioca
umas 20 vezes e campeão mundial de veteranos três vezes", disse
Haddad. "Ele não bebe, dorme cedo, acorda cedo, pratica esporte
todo dia." Haddad, 64, disse ter um investimento "pequeno" em um
fundo do 3G. Ele não quis revelar o montante.
Tênis
"Pelo tanto que jogava, percebi que dificilmente estaria
entre os dez melhores do mundo", disse Lemann, segundo a
reportagem da Época. "Resolvi parar. Percebi que não seria um
astro."
Lemann pode ser melhor descrito como um "calvinista", disse
Haddad numa entrevista por telefone de São Paulo. Seus
funcionários entenderam exatamente o que isso significava depois
que a cervejaria belga InBev NV, que era controlada em parte por
Lemann e seus sócios, comprou a Anheuser-Busch, com sede em St.
Louis, EUA, em 2008.
Cerca de 1.400 pessoas perderam logo seus empregos. Foram
cortadas mordomias que iam de voos em classe executiva a
Blackberrys e caixas de cerveja de graça, segundo uma pessoa
próxima ao negócio que não está autorizada a falar em público.
Mesmo o brasileiro Carlos Brito, presidente da empresa, passou a
voar de classe econômica.
"Eles não fazem a menor questão de aparecer", Fraga, 53,
fundador da Gávea Investimentos Ltda, fundo de hedge do Rio,
disse sobre Lemann e seus sócios. A Gávea tem uma participação
na Arcos Dorados, com sede em Buenos Aires, operadora das
franquias do McDonald's Corp. na América Latina, e também na
Lojas Americanas.
Pai suíço
Lemann, classificado pela Forbes como o terceiro homem mais
rico da América Latina e o 48º do mundo, é filho de um
empresário suíço. Ele cresceu no Rio de Janeiro e foi para
Harvard, nos EUA, para estudar economia e negócios.
Depois de se formar em economia, em 1961, voltou para o
Brasil para trabalhar com finanças. Dines pediu para Lemann
assumir uma coluna sobre o mercado de capitais para melhorar a
cobertura do setor no jornal, embora o rapaz nunca tivesse
trabalhado como jornalista antes. Logo depois, Dines mudou de
ideia, ao saber que Lemann estava trabalhando como corretor.
Em 1971, Lemann, que também fez mestrado em administração
de empresas em Harvard, fundou o Banco de Investimentos Garantia
no Rio, e este logo passou a ser conhecido como o lugar onde os
profissionais talentosos disputavam empregos. O Garantia prestou
serviços para multinacionais como Philip Morris International
Inc. e Colgate-Palmolive Co., ambas com sede em Nova York,
ajudando-as a realizar aquisições e a se expandir no País.
Espírito empreendedor
"Ele sempre liderou dando o exemplo, sempre delegando e
procurando dar espaço para as pessoas empreenderem e crescerem",
disse Fraga, presidente do conselho da BM&FBovespa SA, com sede
em São Paulo, operadora da maior bolsa da América Latina. "Era
uma cultura claramente meritocrática, capaz de atrair e reter
pessoas de grande talento, energia e disposição."
O início da sua carreira quase terminou em fracasso. Em
1971, Lemann e seus sócios pagaram US$ 800.000 por uma vaga na
bolsa de valores do Rio de Janeiro, segundo um artigo da Forbes
de 1996. Algumas semanas depois, o mercado despencou 60 por
cento e eles quase perderam todo o capital, segundo a revista.
O Garantia resistiu e, em 1988, foi adquirido pelo Credit
Suisse First Boston por quase US$ 1 bilhão, incluindo pagamentos
posteriores vinculados ao desempenho do banco, segundo Haddad.
Lemann então fundou a GP Investimentos com Sicupira e Telles.
Uma das primeiras transações foi a compra da Lojas
Americanas. Quando venderam sua participação na GP, em 2004, os
sócios tinham aumentado os ativos para R$ 3,6 bilhões e gerado
retornos anuais médios sobre os investimentos de 23 por cento em
dólar.
Lemann usou parte de sua riqueza para ajudar a melhorar a
educação no Brasil, onde o índice de analfabetismo estava em 9,7
por cento no ano passado, criando duas fundações para atuar em
frentes distintas.
'Mundo melhor'
A Fundação Lemann, criada em 2001, dá cursos para diretores
de escolas públicas e secretários da educação municipais para
ajudá-los a lidar com os desafios de se trabalhar no sistema de
educação pública do País. O orçamento anual da fundação é de R$
10 milhões.
"Claramente a visão de mundo dele é de que quem move o
mundo são as pessoas", Ilona Becskeházy, 45, diretora executiva
da Fundação Lemann, disse numa entrevista por telefone de São
Paulo. "O País depende da qualidade dessas pessoas, de
qualidades intrínsecas e qualidades que têm a ver com coisas
aprendidas através da educação."
O website da Fundação Lemann abre com uma frase assinada
por seu fundador: "Ajudar pessoas a atingir seu potencial e
apoiá-las para que elas, por sua vez, possam ajudar outras no
futuro é um caminho para tornar o mundo melhor".
Viagem à praia
Outra fundação de Lemann, a Fundação Estudar, foi criada em
1991 e oferece bolsas de estudos para brasileiros estudarem
economia, administração, política pública e direito, afirmou a
diretora-executiva Thais Junqueira Franco Xavier. "A ideia é
formar gente competente, capaz."
Ao mesmo tempo em que gasta seu dinheiro para melhorar a
sociedade brasileira, Lemann é conhecido por seus valores de um
trabalhador simples. Haddad lembrou-se de uma história que se
costuma contar sobre Lemann, da década de 80 -- quando ele
estava viajando no seu Volkswagen Passat para um fim de semana
na praia e parou para abastecer. Enquanto enchia o tanque, o
posto foi assaltado e os bandidos ignoraram totalmente o
bilionário.
"Como ele estava vestido com simplicidade e dirigindo um
Passat velho, acharam que ele era um João-ninguém", disse
Haddad. "Se soubessem que ele era o principal acionista do
Garantia, o principal acionista da Lojas Americanas,
provavelmente teriam tentado fazer alguma coisa com ele."
Para Mais Notícias e Informações:
Principais matérias em português: {TOP BR <GO>}
Informações sobre o 3G: {3688370Z US <Equity> RELS <GO>}
Operações do Burger King: {BKC US <Equity> TCNI MNA <GO>}
Matérias em português: {NH PBN <GO>}
Principais matérias em inglês: {TOP <GO>}
Principais matérias sobre América Latina: {TOPL <GO>}
--Editores: Alan Mirabella, Helder Marinho, José Sergio Osse
Para entrar em contato com a repórter:
Fabiola Moura, em Nova York, +1-212-617-5772 ou
fdemoura@bloomberg.net
Para entrar em contato com os editores responsáveis:
David Papadopoulos, +1-212-617-5105 ou
papadopoulos@bloomberg.net
Francisco Marcelino, +55-11-3048-4530 ou
mdeoliveira@bloomberg.net
quinta-feira, 16 de setembro de 2010
quarta-feira, 15 de setembro de 2010
terça-feira, 14 de setembro de 2010
Gold Futures Surge to Record $1,272.40 an Ounce on
Gold Futures Surge to Record $1,272.40 an Ounce on Haven Demand
Gold futures rose to a record $1,272.40 an ounce on demand for a haven against turmoil in the global economy and financial markets. Gold futures for December delivery rose ...
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
People
?15327955 Adam Klopfenstein (Lind-Waldock)
?3296948 Barack H Obama (United States of America)
?1643632 Leonard Kaplan (Prospector Asset Management)
?15122317 Michael Pento (Euro Pacific Capital Inc)
Gold futures rose to a record $1,272.40 an ounce on demand for a haven against turmoil in the global economy and financial markets. Gold futures for December delivery rose ...
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
People
?15327955 Adam Klopfenstein (Lind-Waldock)
?3296948 Barack H Obama (United States of America)
?1643632 Leonard Kaplan (Prospector Asset Management)
?15122317 Michael Pento (Euro Pacific Capital Inc)
sexta-feira, 10 de setembro de 2010
(BLG) Motley Fool: Do These Beer Companies Pass Buffett's Test?
Motley Fool: Do These Beer Companies Pass Buffett's Test?
2010-09-09 16:25:59.618 GMT
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?z3135595524&z=950243428
PageExcerpt:
We'd all like to invest as successfully as the legendary Warren Buffett. He calculates return on invested capital (ROIC) to help determine whether a company has an economic moat -- the ability to earn returns on its money beyond that money's cost. ...
2010-09-09 16:25:59.618 GMT
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?z3135595524&z=950243428
PageExcerpt:
We'd all like to invest as successfully as the legendary Warren Buffett. He calculates return on invested capital (ROIC) to help determine whether a company has an economic moat -- the ability to earn returns on its money beyond that money's cost. ...
(BLG) Market Oracle: Brazil, Dump this Market Now!
Market Oracle: Brazil, Dump this Market Now!
2010-09-09 16:20:41.347 GMT
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22547.html
PageExcerpt:
By: Money_Morning Martin Hutchinson writes: Batten down the hatches. Brazil, the media-darling of the world financial press and the poster child for emerging-markets investing, is heading directly into the eye of the storm. Until now, Brazil has ...
2010-09-09 16:20:41.347 GMT
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22547.html
PageExcerpt:
By: Money_Morning Martin Hutchinson writes: Batten down the hatches. Brazil, the media-darling of the world financial press and the poster child for emerging-markets investing, is heading directly into the eye of the storm. Until now, Brazil has ...
(NS5) ADP News: Petrobras discovers oil in Baleia Franca field
ADP News: Petrobras discovers oil in Baleia Franca field
2010-09-09 16:55:45.133 GMT
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?z3135654526&z=950243446
PageExcerpt:
- Brazil's federal oil and gas company Petrobras (SAO:PETR3) discovered indications for oil presence in the Baleia Franca field, Campos Basin, according to Brazil's oil industry regulator ANP's website. The discovery was made in well 7BFR6ESS. ...
2010-09-09 16:55:45.133 GMT
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?z3135654526&z=950243446
PageExcerpt:
- Brazil's federal oil and gas company Petrobras (SAO:PETR3) discovered indications for oil presence in the Baleia Franca field, Campos Basin, according to Brazil's oil industry regulator ANP's website. The discovery was made in well 7BFR6ESS. ...
terça-feira, 17 de agosto de 2010
quarta-feira, 11 de agosto de 2010
China and Yuan
BEIJING, Aug 10 (Reuters) - China's trade surplus unexpectedly ballooned in July to an 18-month high, handing fresh ammunition to critics who say Beijing is not moving swiftly enough to let the yuan rise.
Exports showed resilience, rising 38.1 percent from a year earlier to a record high of $145.5 billion. Shipments to the United States and the European Union rose from June levels, defying worries about slowing demand.
quarta-feira, 4 de agosto de 2010
domingo, 25 de julho de 2010
sexta-feira, 23 de julho de 2010
7 de 91 bancos europeus nao passam no stress test? é pouco nao?
Germany gets flak over stress tests. The results of European stress tests, published on Friday, showed that just seven of 91 banks tested across the EU failed to achieve a tier one capital ratio of 6% once their balance sheets were exposed to a series of adverse scenarios for 2010 and 2011. However, Germany is getting flak from European regulators because six of the 14 German banks tested, including Deutsche Bank (DB) and Postbank, didn't provide the expected detailed breakdown of sovereign debt holdings. The non-disclosure is likely to fuel rumors that the banks have something to hide, adding to the market uncertainty that stress tests were meant to quell. Meanwhile, banks that passed the tests must now turn to their next challenge: raising billions of dollars in long-term funding tofinance new lending. Premarket: DB -2.65% (7:00 ET). monday 07/26/2010
(BN) EU Stress Tests Only Consider Trading Book Bond Loss 13 PM BRASILIA
EU Stress Tests Only Consider Trading Book Bond Loss (Update2)
2010-07-23 13:53:13.878 GMT
(Adds analyst comment in fourth paragraph.)
By Meera Louis
July 23 (Bloomberg) -- European stress tests on 91 banks
will take into account bank losses only on government bonds they
trade rather than those they hold to maturity, according to a
draft European Central Bank document.
"The haircuts are applied to the trading book portfolios
only, as no default assumption was considered," according to a
confidential document dated July 22 and titled "EU Stress Test
Exercise: Key Messages on Methodological Issues."
The tests will assume a loss of 23.1 percent on Greek debt,
14 percent of Portuguese bonds, 12.3 percent on Spanish debt,
and 4.7 percent on German state debt, according to the document
obtained by Bloomberg News. U.K. government bonds will be
subject to a 10 percent haircut, and France 5.9 percent.
The decision "allows banks to basically underestimate
their exposure to distressed peripheral debt," Brown Brothers
Harriman, the New York private bank founded almost 200 years
ago, said in a note to clients today. "By leaving out stress
tests on the banking book, then a true picture of bank balance
sheets will clearly not be obtained."
The tests assume the weighted average yield on euro-area
five-year government bonds will rise to 4.6 percent in 2011 from
2.7 percent at the end of 2009. The tests also include an
increase in the yield on five-year Greek government bonds to as
much as 13.9 percent after "interest rate shocks," the
document shows.
"The haircuts on government debt in the trading book
increase according to the introduction of sovereign risk, which
is modeled as an increase in government bond spreads in line
with market developments since the beginning of May 2010,"
according to the document.
Euro Weakens
European Union regulators are examining the strength of
banks to determine if they can survive potential losses on
sovereign-bond holdings. They are counting on the tests to
reassure investors about the health of financial institutions
from Germany's WestLB AG and Bayerische Landesbank to Spanish
savings banks as the debt crisis pummels the bonds of Greece,
Spain and Portugal.
The 54-member Bloomberg Europe Banks and Financial Services
Index traded down 1.1 percent at 2:38 p.m. London time. The euro
weakened against the dollar, sliding 0.6 percent to $1.2817.
The Committee of European Banking Supervisors, which is
overseeing the tests, is scheduled to release the criteria and
the results from 5 p.m. London time today. CEBS deputy secretary
general Patrick Amis declined to comment on the document,
referring questions to the ECB. The ECB declined to comment.
Related News and Information: Legal Functions and Filings: {BLAW
<GO>} More on European Regulators: {TNI MKTREG EUROPE <GO>}
Economic indicator watch: {ECOW EU <GO>} European economic
coverage: {TNI ECO EU <GO>}
--Editors: Edward Evans, Francis Harris
To contact the reporters on this story:
Meera Louis in Brussels at +32-2-237-4328 or
mlouis1@bloomberg.net;
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Edward Evans at +44-207-073-3190 or eevans3@bloomberg.net.
2010-07-23 13:53:13.878 GMT
(Adds analyst comment in fourth paragraph.)
By Meera Louis
July 23 (Bloomberg) -- European stress tests on 91 banks
will take into account bank losses only on government bonds they
trade rather than those they hold to maturity, according to a
draft European Central Bank document.
"The haircuts are applied to the trading book portfolios
only, as no default assumption was considered," according to a
confidential document dated July 22 and titled "EU Stress Test
Exercise: Key Messages on Methodological Issues."
The tests will assume a loss of 23.1 percent on Greek debt,
14 percent of Portuguese bonds, 12.3 percent on Spanish debt,
and 4.7 percent on German state debt, according to the document
obtained by Bloomberg News. U.K. government bonds will be
subject to a 10 percent haircut, and France 5.9 percent.
The decision "allows banks to basically underestimate
their exposure to distressed peripheral debt," Brown Brothers
Harriman, the New York private bank founded almost 200 years
ago, said in a note to clients today. "By leaving out stress
tests on the banking book, then a true picture of bank balance
sheets will clearly not be obtained."
The tests assume the weighted average yield on euro-area
five-year government bonds will rise to 4.6 percent in 2011 from
2.7 percent at the end of 2009. The tests also include an
increase in the yield on five-year Greek government bonds to as
much as 13.9 percent after "interest rate shocks," the
document shows.
"The haircuts on government debt in the trading book
increase according to the introduction of sovereign risk, which
is modeled as an increase in government bond spreads in line
with market developments since the beginning of May 2010,"
according to the document.
Euro Weakens
European Union regulators are examining the strength of
banks to determine if they can survive potential losses on
sovereign-bond holdings. They are counting on the tests to
reassure investors about the health of financial institutions
from Germany's WestLB AG and Bayerische Landesbank to Spanish
savings banks as the debt crisis pummels the bonds of Greece,
Spain and Portugal.
The 54-member Bloomberg Europe Banks and Financial Services
Index traded down 1.1 percent at 2:38 p.m. London time. The euro
weakened against the dollar, sliding 0.6 percent to $1.2817.
The Committee of European Banking Supervisors, which is
overseeing the tests, is scheduled to release the criteria and
the results from 5 p.m. London time today. CEBS deputy secretary
general Patrick Amis declined to comment on the document,
referring questions to the ECB. The ECB declined to comment.
Related News and Information: Legal Functions and Filings: {BLAW
<GO>} More on European Regulators: {TNI MKTREG EUROPE <GO>}
Economic indicator watch: {ECOW EU <GO>} European economic
coverage: {TNI ECO EU <GO>}
--Editors: Edward Evans, Francis Harris
To contact the reporters on this story:
Meera Louis in Brussels at +32-2-237-4328 or
mlouis1@bloomberg.net;
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Edward Evans at +44-207-073-3190 or eevans3@bloomberg.net.
quarta-feira, 7 de julho de 2010
(Bloomberg) Sell Bonds, Buy Precious Metals, Rice as ‘Refuge,’
Sell Bonds, Buy Precious Metals, Rice as 'Refuge,' Rogers Says
2010-07-07 10:49:06.466 GMT
By Ranjeetha Pakiam
July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should sell bonds and buy
commodities like silver and rice as a "refuge" as the world
economy may continue having problems, Jim Rogers, chairman of
Rogers Holdings said.
"Bonds are not a good place to invest in," Rogers said at
a conference in Kuala Lumpur today. "You should own commodities
because that's your only refuge" whether it's silver or rice,
said Rogers, who predicted the start of the global commodities
rally in 1999.
Gold has gained 8.3 percent this year, leading advances in
precious metals, as investors seek haven assets to protect their
wealth amid concern the global economic recovery will falter.
Still, commodities overall capped their worst quarter in more
than a year on investors' concern that slower growth from China
to the U.S. will sap demand.
The best place to be is in commodities and other natural
resources, including precious metals like silver, platinum and
palladium, said Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Hedge Fund in
1970. Commodities are good to buy as supply shortages are
already developing, the Singapore-based investor said.
Gold prices will rise to more than $2,000 per ounce, said
Rogers, without giving a timeframe. Bullion for immediate
delivery declined 0.4 percent at $1,187.85 an ounce at 6:34 p.m.
in Singapore. It reached a record $1,265.30 on June 21.
'Straight Up'
"I do own gold," he said. "Gold has been extremely
strong of late, but I'm not rushing out to buy gold. I don't
like to buy things that have been going straight up."
While gold has been trading at all-time highs, silver
remains 60 to 70 percent below its peak and is a better
investment, he said. Silver reached an all-time high of $50.35
in New York in 1980.
Silver for immediate delivery fell 1 percent to $17.6413 an
ounce at 6:22 p.m. Platinum dropped 0.6 percent to $1,507.68 and
palladium declined 1.2 percent to $433.35.
Still, agricultural commodities are better than metals as
prices are "very depressed," he said, pointing to sugar which
is 75 percent below its all-time high in 1974. Raw sugar for
October delivery slid 1.2 percent to 16.49 cents a pound on ICE
Futures U.S. in New York. It reached a record of 66 cents in
November 1974.
"Not many things are 75 percent cheaper that 36 years ago,
but that's true of sugar," Rogers said. "Agriculture
commodities are desperately cheap compared to 20, 30, 40 years
ago."
Rice futures on June 30 touched $9.55, the lowest price
since October, 2006, on rising production and declining demand.
The contract for September delivery gained 0.7 percent to $9.935
per 100 pounds on the Chicago Board of Trade at 6:15 p.m. in
Shanghai.
For Related News and Information:
--Editors: Barry Porter, Richard Dobson.
To contact the reporter responsible for this story:
Ranjeetha Pakiam in Kuala Lumpur at +603-2302-7856 or
rpakiam@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Richard Dobson in Shanghai at +86-21-6104-7025 or
rdobson4@bloomberg.net
2010-07-07 10:49:06.466 GMT
By Ranjeetha Pakiam
July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should sell bonds and buy
commodities like silver and rice as a "refuge" as the world
economy may continue having problems, Jim Rogers, chairman of
Rogers Holdings said.
"Bonds are not a good place to invest in," Rogers said at
a conference in Kuala Lumpur today. "You should own commodities
because that's your only refuge" whether it's silver or rice,
said Rogers, who predicted the start of the global commodities
rally in 1999.
Gold has gained 8.3 percent this year, leading advances in
precious metals, as investors seek haven assets to protect their
wealth amid concern the global economic recovery will falter.
Still, commodities overall capped their worst quarter in more
than a year on investors' concern that slower growth from China
to the U.S. will sap demand.
The best place to be is in commodities and other natural
resources, including precious metals like silver, platinum and
palladium, said Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Hedge Fund in
1970. Commodities are good to buy as supply shortages are
already developing, the Singapore-based investor said.
Gold prices will rise to more than $2,000 per ounce, said
Rogers, without giving a timeframe. Bullion for immediate
delivery declined 0.4 percent at $1,187.85 an ounce at 6:34 p.m.
in Singapore. It reached a record $1,265.30 on June 21.
'Straight Up'
"I do own gold," he said. "Gold has been extremely
strong of late, but I'm not rushing out to buy gold. I don't
like to buy things that have been going straight up."
While gold has been trading at all-time highs, silver
remains 60 to 70 percent below its peak and is a better
investment, he said. Silver reached an all-time high of $50.35
in New York in 1980.
Silver for immediate delivery fell 1 percent to $17.6413 an
ounce at 6:22 p.m. Platinum dropped 0.6 percent to $1,507.68 and
palladium declined 1.2 percent to $433.35.
Still, agricultural commodities are better than metals as
prices are "very depressed," he said, pointing to sugar which
is 75 percent below its all-time high in 1974. Raw sugar for
October delivery slid 1.2 percent to 16.49 cents a pound on ICE
Futures U.S. in New York. It reached a record of 66 cents in
November 1974.
"Not many things are 75 percent cheaper that 36 years ago,
but that's true of sugar," Rogers said. "Agriculture
commodities are desperately cheap compared to 20, 30, 40 years
ago."
Rice futures on June 30 touched $9.55, the lowest price
since October, 2006, on rising production and declining demand.
The contract for September delivery gained 0.7 percent to $9.935
per 100 pounds on the Chicago Board of Trade at 6:15 p.m. in
Shanghai.
For Related News and Information:
--Editors: Barry Porter, Richard Dobson.
To contact the reporter responsible for this story:
Ranjeetha Pakiam in Kuala Lumpur at +603-2302-7856 or
rpakiam@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Richard Dobson in Shanghai at +86-21-6104-7025 or
rdobson4@bloomberg.net
terça-feira, 6 de julho de 2010
Online job recruitment grew in 28 of 28 US cities surveyed last month by MONSTER
The Monster Employment Index is a broad and comprehensive monthly analysis of U.S. online job demand conducted by Monster Worldwide, Inc. (NASDAQ: MNST), the parent company of the leading global online careers property, Monsterï.
Based on a real-time review of millions of employer job opportunities culled from more than 1,500 Web sites, including a variety of corporate career sites, job boards and Monster, the Monster Employment Index presents a snapshot of employer online recruitment activity nationwide.
The Index counts job postings as an indicator of employer demand for employees or, in other words, job availability. Job postings are online advertisements placed by an employer looking to fill one or more vacant, or recently created, job positions.
July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Online job recruitment grew in 28 of 28 cities surveyed last month. The following table ranks online job availability by major metro area.
*T
=====================================================================
June May April March Feb. Jan. Dec.
2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009
=====================================================================
Atlanta 93 88 90 84 78 66 71
Baltimore 54 49 51 46 44 38 42
Boston 81 79 78 66 62 52 57
Chicago 78 74 76 68 66 55 60
Cincinnati 84 75 73 69 65 54 56
Cleveland 100 91 91 88 80 70 75
Dallas 105 103 101 99 95 80 84
Denver 100 96 94 89 86 77 80
Detroit 91 79 78 72 70 57 63
Houston 118 114 111 107 104 97 98
Indianapolis 92 82 82 78 76 68 70
=====================================================================
June May April March Feb. Jan. Dec.
2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009
=====================================================================
Kansas City 97 87 86 79 75 65 69
Los Angeles 69 67 67 61 58 51 54
Miami 78 75 76 72 69 59 62
Minneapolis 91 86 85 84 78 68 72
New York City 84 82 82 73 70 60 65
Orlando 60 53 50 50 44 36 39
Philadelphia 57 56 54 45 43 36 41
Phoenix 71 70 70 67 65 60 62
Pittsburgh 152 141 136 131 126 108 112
Portland 97 88 84 79 71 62 69
Sacramento 78 71 70 68 62 57 59
San Diego 74 70 71 69 65 60 62
San Francisco 76 73 73 68 66 58 61
Seattle 111 105 104 99 93 84 89
St. Louis 116 104 102 99 95 83 85
Tampa Bay 87 77 77 73 71 62 63
Washington DC 58 54 55 48 46 38 45
=====================================================================
June May April March Feb. Jan. Dec.
2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009
=====================================================================
=====================================================================
quarta-feira, 30 de junho de 2010
BUY Chinese YUAN FX and USD denominated COMMODITIES
YUAN = RENMINBI = CNY = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renminbi
Monthly since 81
This is monthly microscale 94/2010
I prefer to be long CNY
terça-feira, 29 de junho de 2010
(BN) Stocks Slide, Treasuries Jump on Concern Over China,
Stocks Slide, Treasuries Jump on Concern Over China, Confidence
2010-06-29 14:24:12.198 GMT
By Rita Nazareth and Stephen Kirkland
June 29 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks plunged from Shanghai to New
York, with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index sinking below its
lowest closing level of the year, and Treasury two-year note
yields dropped to a record low on concern over weakening growth
in China and lower-than-estimated U.S. consumer confidence.
The S&P 500 slid 2.5 percent to 1,047.61 at 10:18 a.m. in
New York, its lowest on a closing basis since November 2009. The
MSCI World Index of 24 developed nations lost 2.9 percent, the
biggest drop since May 20. The benchmark 2012 Treasury note
yield slid as low as 0.5857 percent and the 10-year yield sank
below 3 percent for the first time in 14 months. China's
Shanghai Composite Index slumped 4.3 percent, the most in six
weeks, and the yen rose to an eight-year high against the euro.
"It's ugly out there," said James Paulsen, who helps
oversee about $375 billion as chief investment strategist at
Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis. "Consumers are pulling
back. There's concern about a China slowdown. We're close to
important technical levels on the S&P 500, with 1,040 being
closely watched. It's end of quarter, investors have to close
their books and they are selling the stocks that did poorly."
The tumble in global stocks started after the Conference
Board's leading economic index for China, which overtook Germany
as the world's biggest exporter last year, rose 0.3 percent in
April, less than the 1.7 percent reported June 15. Losses
accelerated after the same research group's gauge of U.S.
consumer confidence slumped to 52.9 in June, less than all 71
projections in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.
Home Prices Overshadowed
The S&P 500, the benchmark gauge for U.S. stocks, retreated
for the sixth time in seven days even after a report showed home
prices in 20 U.S. cities rose in April from a year earlier as
sales got a boost from a tax credit. The S&P/Case-Shiller index
of property values climbed 3.8 percent from April 2009, the
biggest year-over-year gain since September 2006. The gain
topped the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg
News.
Today's data damaged investor confidence amid concern a
Labor Department report July 2 will show the U.S. lost jobs for
the first time this year while European bank balance sheets come
under renewed scrutiny.
All 10 industry groups in the MSCI World gauge declined,
led by basic-materials producers and financial companies. The
index has lost 8.4 percent this year. The MSCI Asia Pacific
Index dropped 1.6 percent today as Japan's unemployment rate
unexpectedly increased.
Treasuries Rally
The yield on the 10-year Treasury security slid as much as
7 basis points to 2.95 percent, the lowest since April 2009.
Treasuries have climbed 5.7 percent this year, according to
indexes compiled by Bloomberg and the European Federation of
Financial Analysts Societies. The 10-year Australian bond yield
dropped nine basis points to 5.14 percent, and the yield on the
German bund retreated three basis points to 2.55 percent.
The yen appreciated 1.5 percent to 108.05 per euro, the
strongest level since November 2001, while the 16-nation
European currency weakened 0.8 percent against the dollar to
$1.2176, falling for the second consecutive day. The Swiss franc
strengthened to less than 1.33 per euro for the first time amid
speculation the nation's central bank won't intervene to curb
its appreciation.
Metals declined for the first time in four sessions on the
London Metal Exchange, led by a 4.8 percent drop in zinc and 5.3
percent plunge in lead. Copper fell 3.8 percent, extending its
decline this year to 10 percent. Gold slipped 0.2 percent to
$1,236.78 an ounce, trimming this year's gain to less than 13
percent. Oil for August delivery slumped 3.2 percent to $75.78 a
barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Emerging Markets
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 2.6 percent, the most
since June 7, extending this year's drop to 6.3 percent.
Benchmark indexes in Russia, the world's largest energy
supplier, Poland, Ukraine, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Dubai,
Indonesia and Egypt lost more than 2 percent.
The New York-based Conference Board cited a calculation
error for the revision in its Chinese index. The research
group's outlook for the nation's economy hasn't been affected by
the correction, said William Adams, the group's resident
economist in Beijing.
"Growth was not likely to accelerate in China, and in
fact, a moderation is possible," Adams said in a telephone
interview. "This correction also supports the same view."
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index tumbled 2 percent as Rio Tinto
Group, the world's third-biggest mining company, plunged 4.8
percent on concern demand from China may weaken. BP Plc slid 2.7
percent, bringing its decline since an April explosion on the
Deepwater Horizon rig to more than 50 percent.
The cost of insuring BP's debt approached a record, with
credit-default swaps increasing 3.5 basis points to 587.4,
according to CMA DataVision, a London-based credit information
provider. The contracts closed at an all-time high of 588.6 on
June 25.
For Related News and Information:
Developed Markets View: DMMV <GO>
Emerging Markets View: EMMV <GO>
Stock Market Map: IMAP G <GO>
World Equity Markets: WEI <GO>
World Bond Markets: WB <GO>
Pipeline of Bonds: PREL <GO>
World Currency Ranker: WCRS <GO>
Commodity Ranked Returns: CRR <GO>
Credit-Default Swap Indexes: MKIT <GO>
World Trends and Reversals: WTR <GO>
Graphing: GRAPH <GO>
----With assistance from Claudia Carpenter, Lukanyo Mnyanda
Andrew Rummer, Michael Shanahan and Daniel Tilles in London.
Editor: Michael P. Regan
To contact the reporters on this story:
Stephen Kirkland in London at +44-20-7073-3172 or
skirkland@bloomberg.net;
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Paul Sillitoe in London at +4420-7073-3857
segunda-feira, 21 de junho de 2010
segunda-feira, 14 de junho de 2010
(BN) Greece Cut Four Steps to Junk by Moody’s on Economic Risks
Greece Cut Four Steps to Junk by Moody's on Economic 'Risks'
2010-06-14 17:51:34.243 GMT
By Ben Martin
June 14 (Bloomberg) -- Greece's credit rating was cut four
steps to non-investment grade, or junk, by Moody's Investors
Service, which cited the country's economic "risks."
The rating was lowered to Ba1 from A3, Moody's said in a
statement today from London. The outlook is stable, it said.
Greece is already rated junk by Standard & Poor's.
The European Union last month announced a rescue package of
almost $1 trillion, with support from the International Monetary
Fund, to shore up the finances of the region's weakest economies
amid concern that governments will struggle to narrow their
budget deficits.
"It's a significant downgrade," said Kevin Flanagan, a
Purchase, New York-based fixed-income strategist for Morgan
Stanley Smith Barney. "It's not a surprise to people, but the
timing and magnitude is what has taken Treasuries off the lows
and is providing some support."
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose six basis
points to 3.30 percent, after rising to 3.33 percent.
"The Ba1 rating reflects our analysis of the balance of
the strengths and risks associated with the euro-zone-IMF
support package," Sarah Carlson, vice president-senior analyst
in Moody's sovereign risk group, said in the statement.
S&P cut Greece's credit rating to non-investment grade on
April 27, the first time a euro member lost its investment-grade
since the euro's 1999 debut. S&P warned that bondholders could
recover as little as 30 percent of their initial investment if
the country restructures its debt.
For Related News and Information:
Top stories: TOP <GO>
Bond yield forecasts: BYFC <GO>
Greek debt crisis: EXT3 <GO>
For new issues: NIM4 <GO>
For top bond stories TOP BON <GO>
Greek crisis special report: EXT3 <GO>
--With assistance from Benjamin Levisohn in New York. Editors:
Daniel Tilles, Dave Liedtka
To contact the reporter on this story:
Ben Martin in London +44-20-7073-3397 or
bmartin38@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Ben Livesey at +44-20-7673-2371 or
blivesey@bloomberg.net.
2010-06-14 17:51:34.243 GMT
By Ben Martin
June 14 (Bloomberg) -- Greece's credit rating was cut four
steps to non-investment grade, or junk, by Moody's Investors
Service, which cited the country's economic "risks."
The rating was lowered to Ba1 from A3, Moody's said in a
statement today from London. The outlook is stable, it said.
Greece is already rated junk by Standard & Poor's.
The European Union last month announced a rescue package of
almost $1 trillion, with support from the International Monetary
Fund, to shore up the finances of the region's weakest economies
amid concern that governments will struggle to narrow their
budget deficits.
"It's a significant downgrade," said Kevin Flanagan, a
Purchase, New York-based fixed-income strategist for Morgan
Stanley Smith Barney. "It's not a surprise to people, but the
timing and magnitude is what has taken Treasuries off the lows
and is providing some support."
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose six basis
points to 3.30 percent, after rising to 3.33 percent.
"The Ba1 rating reflects our analysis of the balance of
the strengths and risks associated with the euro-zone-IMF
support package," Sarah Carlson, vice president-senior analyst
in Moody's sovereign risk group, said in the statement.
S&P cut Greece's credit rating to non-investment grade on
April 27, the first time a euro member lost its investment-grade
since the euro's 1999 debut. S&P warned that bondholders could
recover as little as 30 percent of their initial investment if
the country restructures its debt.
For Related News and Information:
Top stories: TOP <GO>
Bond yield forecasts: BYFC <GO>
Greek debt crisis: EXT3 <GO>
For new issues: NIM4 <GO>
For top bond stories TOP BON <GO>
Greek crisis special report: EXT3 <GO>
--With assistance from Benjamin Levisohn in New York. Editors:
Daniel Tilles, Dave Liedtka
To contact the reporter on this story:
Ben Martin in London +44-20-7073-3397 or
bmartin38@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Ben Livesey at +44-20-7673-2371 or
blivesey@bloomberg.net.
(AFL) Produção industrial da Zona do euro tem maior avanço desde 91
Produção industrial da Zona do euro tem maior avanço desde 1991
2010-06-14 10:33:47.520 GMT
Reuters
Bruxelas, Bélgica (FolhaNews)
A produção industrial da zona do euro registrou em abril a maior alta na
comparação anual em quase duas décadas, segundo dados da Agência de Estatísticas
Eurostat, divulgados nesta segunda-feira.
A atividade cresceu 0,8% sobre março e saltou 9,5% ante abril de 2009, a maior
variação desde o início da série histórica em janeiro de 1991.
A Eurostat revisou para cima o dado de março, para crescimento de 1,5% ante
fevereiro e de 7,7% sobre o ano passado, ante as leituras preliminares de,
respectivamente, 1,3% e 6,9%.
Provider ID: 00011AFL
-0- Jun/14/2010 10:33 GMT
2010-06-14 10:33:47.520 GMT
Reuters
Bruxelas, Bélgica (FolhaNews)
A produção industrial da zona do euro registrou em abril a maior alta na
comparação anual em quase duas décadas, segundo dados da Agência de Estatísticas
Eurostat, divulgados nesta segunda-feira.
A atividade cresceu 0,8% sobre março e saltou 9,5% ante abril de 2009, a maior
variação desde o início da série histórica em janeiro de 1991.
A Eurostat revisou para cima o dado de março, para crescimento de 1,5% ante
fevereiro e de 7,7% sobre o ano passado, ante as leituras preliminares de,
respectivamente, 1,3% e 6,9%.
Provider ID: 00011AFL
-0- Jun/14/2010 10:33 GMT
terça-feira, 8 de junho de 2010
Sugar Short is over? Maybe YES!
Output in Center South, Brazil's main cane-growing region, jumped 26 percent in May's first half as mills processed a record crop, industry association Unica said last week. Some traders are betting that production may start to slow because of excessive rain and lack of sun during growing months, according to researcher Kingsman SA.
"We will have to keep a sharp eye out on the Unica crush numbers as we move through the season,"Jonathan Kingsman, managing director of Lausanne, Switzerland-based Kingsman, wrote in a report yesterday after trading closed. "The bulls argue that as the season progresses, the cane will lose both agricultural and industrial yield."
(BN) Investors Pick U.S. Over BRICs in Bloomberg User Poll
Investors Pick U.S. Over BRICs in Bloomberg User Poll (Update1)
2010-06-08 01:21:00.211 GMT
(Adds Hungary's pledge to control deficit in second
paragraph under Debt Crisis sub-headline.)
By Mike Dorning
June 8 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. has supplanted China and
Brazil as the most attractive market for investors as confidence
in the global economic recovery wanes in the wake of the Greek
debt crisis.
Investors are putting their money on President Barack
Obama's stewardship of the U.S. economy even as his job-approval
rating has declined, according to a global quarterly poll of
investors and analysts who are Bloomberg subscribers.
Almost four of 10 respondents picked the U.S. as the market
presenting the best opportunities in the year ahead. That's more
than double the portion who said so last October, when the U.S.
was rated the market posing the greatest downside risk by a
plurality of respondents.
Lawrence Summers, director of the White House National
Economic Council, said this attests to Obama's efforts at
"restoring the United States to strong economic fundamentals."
He added that "while there remains much to do, the U.S. economy
is growing."
"We've seen the bottom; we're firm, and the United States
is slowly moving forward," said Wayne Smith, 51, managing
director of fixed-income trading at Uniondale, New York-based
Northeast Securities, which manages $3.5 billion.
Following the U.S.'s 39 percent rating as the most
promising market were Brazil, chosen by 29 percent; China, 28
percent; and India, 27 percent. Those are three of the four so-
called BRICs, large emerging markets that also include Russia.
Just 6 percent chose Russia.
In a poll taken in January, China was the favorite followed
by Brazil. Respondents were allowed to pick multiple countries.
'Least Dirty Shirt'
The U.S. is one of the few relative bright spots in a
global market rattled by the Greek debt crisis. Bill Gross, co-
chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co.
and manager of the world's largest bond fund, called the U.S.
"the least dirty shirt," in a Bloomberg Radio interview.
Forty-two percent of investors now believe the world
economy is deteriorating, double the 21 percent who thought so
in January. U.S. investors were the most pessimistic about the
global economy, with 58 percent saying it is getting worse
versus 31 percent of Europeans and 35 percent of Asians.
Europeans were the most pessimistic about their own region, with
40 percent viewing it as deteriorating; 21 percent of U.S.
investors viewed their home region negatively, while 9 percent
in Asia felt that way.
International views of the European Union have declined
sharply. More than half of respondents believe the EU offers the
worst investment opportunities, up from a third who said so in
January, when Europe also ranked at the bottom.
Debt Crisis
The crisis in Greece, where soaring deficits have stirred
fears of a government default, has rippled throughout Europe,
with credit agencies downgrading sovereign debt in Portugal and
Spain. On June 4, stocks slumped as a comment by a Hungarian
official that his nation's economy is in a "very grave
situation" fanned concern the debt crisis will spread.
Hungary's government yesterday pledged to control the
budget deficit and make structural changes to overhaul the
economy as it distanced itself from suggestions the country was
facing a Greece-like crisis.
The turmoil has drawn a flood of international money into
U.S. government debt, with yields on 10-year Treasury notes
dropping from 3.99 percent on April 5 to 3.15 percent at 4:18
p.m., New York time yesterday. While the Standard & Poor's 500
Index has declined more than 13 percent since its April 23 high,
the benchmark U.S. stock index is up more than 30 percent since
Obama took office.
Can't Keep Up
"While American companies cut down the workforce at their
plants as fast before as they are now hiring workers back,
European companies were not able to respond in a similar way,"
said poll respondent Ofir Navot, 35, of Tel Aviv, head of global
investments for Ramco Mutual Funds, which manages about $400
million.
Investors' rising confidence in the U.S. economy isn't
reflected in their appraisal of Obama: The poll shows his job-
approval rating dropped to 51 percent from 60 percent in
January.
Investors remain bullish on China's long-term prospects.
More than 6 of 10 believe China will replace the U.S. as the
world's largest economy within 20 years. Almost a quarter
believe it will do so within a decade.
Respondents don't share Treasury Secretary Timothy
Geithner's optimism that China will revalue its currency soon. A
majority said it will be at least a year before the country does
so.
Making Money
The quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll of investors, traders
and analysts on six continents was conducted June 2-3 by Selzer
& Co., a Des Moines, Iowa-based firm. It is based on interviews
with a random sample of 1,001 Bloomberg subscribers,
representing decision makers in markets, finance and economics.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage
points.
Even with the pessimism over the global outlook, more
investors see a chance to make money in this environment.
Thirty-five percent said they are seeing opportunity and taking
risks, up from 27 percent who said so in January. Asian
investors were especially likely to see rewards ahead, with 48
percent saying they are taking more risks.
With poll respondents confident in U.S. growth prospects,
the emerging doubts about a global economic recovery haven't
translated into major shifts in views toward asset classes. As
in the January poll, stocks are considered the most attractive
asset class for the coming year. While commodities were second,
the portion of investors choosing them declined to 23 percent
from 31 percent.
Bearish on Bonds
Bonds were chosen as the asset class likely to offer the
worst returns, with 36 percent of respondents saying that. Real
estate was rated next worst, chosen by 24 percent.
Investors in Asia, where there are fears that China's
property market is overheated, were the most pessimistic about
real estate, rating it the worst asset to hold.
Poll respondents by an almost 2-to-1 margin expect to
increase rather than decrease holdings of stocks during the next
six months.
More than half of investors believe the S&P 500 index will
be higher in six months, though sentiments are bearish on the
Euro Stoxx 50 index and Britain's FTSE index.
Investors are also bullish on crude oil prices, which
usually rise along with economic activity. Forty-nine percent
believe oil prices will be higher in six months compared with 24
percent who say they will be lower. The rest expect little
change.
Gold Seen Rising
By a margin of 47 percent to 30 percent, respondents say
they expect the price of gold, a traditional hedge against
political and economic turmoil, to rise in six months. By a
margin of 50 percent to 25 percent, they see yields on the 10-
year Treasury note rising.
Fears of inflation are muted. Only a little more than a
quarter consider it a major threat in "the next couple years."
The regions considered most at risk were China, cited by 19
percent of respondents, followed by the U.S., cited by 17
percent, and the Euro zone, picked by 10 percent.
To see the methodology and exact wording of the poll
questions, click on the attachment tab at the top of the story.
For Related News and Information:
U.S. economic data watch: ESNP US <GO>
U.S. unemployment rate: USURTOT <INDEX> GP <GO>
U.S. economic forecasts: ECFC US <GO>
European economic forecasts: ECFC EU <GO>
European crisis monitor: CRIS <GO>
Bloomberg stories on the economy: TNI US ECO BN <GO>
Bloomberg news on the Federal Reserve: NI FED BN <GO>
--Editors: Mark McQuillan, Max Berley.
To contact the reporter on this story: Mike Dorning in
Washington at +1-202-624-1971 or mdorning@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Chris Wellisz at +1-202-624-1862 or cwellisz@bloomberg.net.
2010-06-08 01:21:00.211 GMT
(Adds Hungary's pledge to control deficit in second
paragraph under Debt Crisis sub-headline.)
By Mike Dorning
June 8 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. has supplanted China and
Brazil as the most attractive market for investors as confidence
in the global economic recovery wanes in the wake of the Greek
debt crisis.
Investors are putting their money on President Barack
Obama's stewardship of the U.S. economy even as his job-approval
rating has declined, according to a global quarterly poll of
investors and analysts who are Bloomberg subscribers.
Almost four of 10 respondents picked the U.S. as the market
presenting the best opportunities in the year ahead. That's more
than double the portion who said so last October, when the U.S.
was rated the market posing the greatest downside risk by a
plurality of respondents.
Lawrence Summers, director of the White House National
Economic Council, said this attests to Obama's efforts at
"restoring the United States to strong economic fundamentals."
He added that "while there remains much to do, the U.S. economy
is growing."
"We've seen the bottom; we're firm, and the United States
is slowly moving forward," said Wayne Smith, 51, managing
director of fixed-income trading at Uniondale, New York-based
Northeast Securities, which manages $3.5 billion.
Following the U.S.'s 39 percent rating as the most
promising market were Brazil, chosen by 29 percent; China, 28
percent; and India, 27 percent. Those are three of the four so-
called BRICs, large emerging markets that also include Russia.
Just 6 percent chose Russia.
In a poll taken in January, China was the favorite followed
by Brazil. Respondents were allowed to pick multiple countries.
'Least Dirty Shirt'
The U.S. is one of the few relative bright spots in a
global market rattled by the Greek debt crisis. Bill Gross, co-
chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co.
and manager of the world's largest bond fund, called the U.S.
"the least dirty shirt," in a Bloomberg Radio interview.
Forty-two percent of investors now believe the world
economy is deteriorating, double the 21 percent who thought so
in January. U.S. investors were the most pessimistic about the
global economy, with 58 percent saying it is getting worse
versus 31 percent of Europeans and 35 percent of Asians.
Europeans were the most pessimistic about their own region, with
40 percent viewing it as deteriorating; 21 percent of U.S.
investors viewed their home region negatively, while 9 percent
in Asia felt that way.
International views of the European Union have declined
sharply. More than half of respondents believe the EU offers the
worst investment opportunities, up from a third who said so in
January, when Europe also ranked at the bottom.
Debt Crisis
The crisis in Greece, where soaring deficits have stirred
fears of a government default, has rippled throughout Europe,
with credit agencies downgrading sovereign debt in Portugal and
Spain. On June 4, stocks slumped as a comment by a Hungarian
official that his nation's economy is in a "very grave
situation" fanned concern the debt crisis will spread.
Hungary's government yesterday pledged to control the
budget deficit and make structural changes to overhaul the
economy as it distanced itself from suggestions the country was
facing a Greece-like crisis.
The turmoil has drawn a flood of international money into
U.S. government debt, with yields on 10-year Treasury notes
dropping from 3.99 percent on April 5 to 3.15 percent at 4:18
p.m., New York time yesterday. While the Standard & Poor's 500
Index has declined more than 13 percent since its April 23 high,
the benchmark U.S. stock index is up more than 30 percent since
Obama took office.
Can't Keep Up
"While American companies cut down the workforce at their
plants as fast before as they are now hiring workers back,
European companies were not able to respond in a similar way,"
said poll respondent Ofir Navot, 35, of Tel Aviv, head of global
investments for Ramco Mutual Funds, which manages about $400
million.
Investors' rising confidence in the U.S. economy isn't
reflected in their appraisal of Obama: The poll shows his job-
approval rating dropped to 51 percent from 60 percent in
January.
Investors remain bullish on China's long-term prospects.
More than 6 of 10 believe China will replace the U.S. as the
world's largest economy within 20 years. Almost a quarter
believe it will do so within a decade.
Respondents don't share Treasury Secretary Timothy
Geithner's optimism that China will revalue its currency soon. A
majority said it will be at least a year before the country does
so.
Making Money
The quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll of investors, traders
and analysts on six continents was conducted June 2-3 by Selzer
& Co., a Des Moines, Iowa-based firm. It is based on interviews
with a random sample of 1,001 Bloomberg subscribers,
representing decision makers in markets, finance and economics.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage
points.
Even with the pessimism over the global outlook, more
investors see a chance to make money in this environment.
Thirty-five percent said they are seeing opportunity and taking
risks, up from 27 percent who said so in January. Asian
investors were especially likely to see rewards ahead, with 48
percent saying they are taking more risks.
With poll respondents confident in U.S. growth prospects,
the emerging doubts about a global economic recovery haven't
translated into major shifts in views toward asset classes. As
in the January poll, stocks are considered the most attractive
asset class for the coming year. While commodities were second,
the portion of investors choosing them declined to 23 percent
from 31 percent.
Bearish on Bonds
Bonds were chosen as the asset class likely to offer the
worst returns, with 36 percent of respondents saying that. Real
estate was rated next worst, chosen by 24 percent.
Investors in Asia, where there are fears that China's
property market is overheated, were the most pessimistic about
real estate, rating it the worst asset to hold.
Poll respondents by an almost 2-to-1 margin expect to
increase rather than decrease holdings of stocks during the next
six months.
More than half of investors believe the S&P 500 index will
be higher in six months, though sentiments are bearish on the
Euro Stoxx 50 index and Britain's FTSE index.
Investors are also bullish on crude oil prices, which
usually rise along with economic activity. Forty-nine percent
believe oil prices will be higher in six months compared with 24
percent who say they will be lower. The rest expect little
change.
Gold Seen Rising
By a margin of 47 percent to 30 percent, respondents say
they expect the price of gold, a traditional hedge against
political and economic turmoil, to rise in six months. By a
margin of 50 percent to 25 percent, they see yields on the 10-
year Treasury note rising.
Fears of inflation are muted. Only a little more than a
quarter consider it a major threat in "the next couple years."
The regions considered most at risk were China, cited by 19
percent of respondents, followed by the U.S., cited by 17
percent, and the Euro zone, picked by 10 percent.
To see the methodology and exact wording of the poll
questions, click on the attachment tab at the top of the story.
For Related News and Information:
U.S. economic data watch: ESNP US <GO>
U.S. unemployment rate: USURTOT <INDEX> GP <GO>
U.S. economic forecasts: ECFC US <GO>
European economic forecasts: ECFC EU <GO>
European crisis monitor: CRIS <GO>
Bloomberg stories on the economy: TNI US ECO BN <GO>
Bloomberg news on the Federal Reserve: NI FED BN <GO>
--Editors: Mark McQuillan, Max Berley.
To contact the reporter on this story: Mike Dorning in
Washington at +1-202-624-1971 or mdorning@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Chris Wellisz at +1-202-624-1862 or cwellisz@bloomberg.net.
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