BUY Chinese YUAN FX and USD denominated COMMODITIES

YUAN = RENMINBI = CNY = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renminbi

Monthly since 81

This is monthly microscale 94/2010

I prefer to be long CNY

ADP grows less than forecasted

ADP + 13 vs 60 expected

not good

(BN) Stocks Slide, Treasuries Jump on Concern Over China,

Stocks Slide, Treasuries Jump on Concern Over China, Confidence
2010-06-29 14:24:12.198 GMT


By Rita Nazareth and Stephen Kirkland
    June 29 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks plunged from Shanghai to New
York, with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index sinking below its
lowest closing level of the year, and Treasury two-year note
yields dropped to a record low on concern over weakening growth
in China and lower-than-estimated U.S. consumer confidence.
    The S&P 500 slid 2.5 percent to 1,047.61 at 10:18 a.m. in
New York, its lowest on a closing basis since November 2009. The
MSCI World Index of 24 developed nations lost 2.9 percent, the
biggest drop since May 20. The benchmark 2012 Treasury note
yield slid as low as 0.5857 percent and the 10-year yield sank
below 3 percent for the first time in 14 months. China's
Shanghai Composite Index slumped 4.3 percent, the most in six
weeks, and the yen rose to an eight-year high against the euro.
    "It's ugly out there," said James Paulsen, who helps
oversee about $375 billion as chief investment strategist at
Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis. "Consumers are pulling
back. There's concern about a China slowdown. We're close to
important technical levels on the S&P 500, with 1,040 being
closely watched. It's end of quarter, investors have to close
their books and they are selling the stocks that did poorly."
    The tumble in global stocks started after the Conference
Board's leading economic index for China, which overtook Germany
as the world's biggest exporter last year, rose 0.3 percent in
April, less than the 1.7 percent reported June 15. Losses
accelerated after the same research group's gauge of U.S.
consumer confidence slumped to 52.9 in June, less than all 71
projections in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

                   Home Prices Overshadowed

    The S&P 500, the benchmark gauge for U.S. stocks, retreated
for the sixth time in seven days even after a report showed home
prices in 20 U.S. cities rose in April from a year earlier as
sales got a boost from a tax credit. The S&P/Case-Shiller index
of property values climbed 3.8 percent from April 2009, the
biggest year-over-year gain since September 2006. The gain
topped the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg
News.
    Today's data damaged investor confidence amid concern a
Labor Department report July 2 will show the U.S. lost jobs for
the first time this year while European bank balance sheets come
under renewed scrutiny.
    All 10 industry groups in the MSCI World gauge declined,
led by basic-materials producers and financial companies. The
index has lost 8.4 percent this year. The MSCI Asia Pacific
Index dropped 1.6 percent today as Japan's unemployment rate
unexpectedly increased.

                     Treasuries Rally

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury security slid as much as
7 basis points to 2.95 percent, the lowest since April 2009.
Treasuries have climbed 5.7 percent this year, according to
indexes compiled by Bloomberg and the European Federation of
Financial Analysts Societies. The 10-year Australian bond yield
dropped nine basis points to 5.14 percent, and the yield on the
German bund retreated three basis points to 2.55 percent.
    The yen appreciated 1.5 percent to 108.05 per euro, the
strongest level since November 2001, while the 16-nation
European currency weakened 0.8 percent against the dollar to
$1.2176, falling for the second consecutive day. The Swiss franc
strengthened to less than 1.33 per euro for the first time amid
speculation the nation's central bank won't intervene to curb
its appreciation.
    Metals declined for the first time in four sessions on the
London Metal Exchange, led by a 4.8 percent drop in zinc and 5.3
percent plunge in lead. Copper fell 3.8 percent, extending its
decline this year to 10 percent. Gold slipped 0.2 percent to
$1,236.78 an ounce, trimming this year's gain to less than 13
percent. Oil for August delivery slumped 3.2 percent to $75.78 a
barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

                       Emerging Markets

    The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 2.6 percent, the most
since June 7, extending this year's drop to 6.3 percent.
Benchmark indexes in Russia, the world's largest energy
supplier, Poland, Ukraine, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Dubai,
Indonesia and Egypt lost more than 2 percent.
    The New York-based Conference Board cited a calculation
error for the revision in its Chinese index. The research
group's outlook for the nation's economy hasn't been affected by
the correction, said William Adams, the group's resident
economist in Beijing.
    "Growth was not likely to accelerate in China, and in
fact, a moderation is possible," Adams said in a telephone
interview. "This correction also supports the same view."
    The Stoxx Europe 600 Index tumbled 2 percent as Rio Tinto
Group, the world's third-biggest mining company, plunged 4.8
percent on concern demand from China may weaken. BP Plc slid 2.7
percent, bringing its decline since an April explosion on the
Deepwater Horizon rig to more than 50 percent.
    The cost of insuring BP's debt approached a record, with
credit-default swaps increasing 3.5 basis points to 587.4,
according to CMA DataVision, a London-based credit information
provider. The contracts closed at an all-time high of 588.6 on
June 25.

For Related News and Information:
Developed Markets View: DMMV <GO>
Emerging Markets View: EMMV <GO>
Stock Market Map: IMAP G <GO>
World Equity Markets: WEI <GO>
World Bond Markets: WB <GO>
Pipeline of Bonds: PREL <GO>
World Currency Ranker: WCRS <GO>
Commodity Ranked Returns: CRR <GO>
Credit-Default Swap Indexes: MKIT <GO>
World Trends and Reversals: WTR <GO>
Graphing: GRAPH <GO>

----With assistance from Claudia Carpenter, Lukanyo Mnyanda
Andrew Rummer, Michael Shanahan and Daniel Tilles in London.
Editor: Michael P. Regan

To contact the reporters on this story:
Stephen Kirkland in London at +44-20-7073-3172 or
skirkland@bloomberg.net;

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Paul Sillitoe in London at +4420-7073-3857

Yuan is turning higher : Sell Dollars

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-yuan-chinese-airlines-rally-2010-06-21?dist=beforebell

(BN) Greece Cut Four Steps to Junk by Moody’s on Economic Risks

Greece Cut Four Steps to Junk by Moody's on Economic 'Risks'
2010-06-14 17:51:34.243 GMT


By Ben Martin
    June 14 (Bloomberg) -- Greece's credit rating was cut four
steps to non-investment grade, or junk, by Moody's Investors
Service, which cited the country's economic "risks."
    The rating was lowered to Ba1 from A3, Moody's said in a
statement today from London. The outlook is stable, it said.
Greece is already rated junk by Standard & Poor's.
    The European Union last month announced a rescue package of
almost $1 trillion, with support from the International Monetary
Fund, to shore up the finances of the region's weakest economies
amid concern that governments will struggle to narrow their
budget deficits.
    "It's a significant downgrade," said Kevin Flanagan, a
Purchase, New York-based fixed-income strategist for Morgan
Stanley Smith Barney. "It's not a surprise to people, but the
timing and magnitude is what has taken Treasuries off the lows
and is providing some support."
    The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose six basis
points to 3.30 percent, after rising to 3.33 percent.
    "The Ba1 rating reflects our analysis of the balance of
the strengths and risks associated with the euro-zone-IMF
support package," Sarah Carlson, vice president-senior analyst
in Moody's sovereign risk group, said in the statement.
    S&P cut Greece's credit rating to non-investment grade on
April 27, the first time a euro member lost its investment-grade
since the euro's 1999 debut. S&P warned that bondholders could
recover as little as 30 percent of their initial investment if
the country restructures its debt.

For Related News and Information:
Top stories: TOP <GO>
Bond yield forecasts: BYFC <GO>
Greek debt crisis: EXT3 <GO>
For new issues: NIM4 <GO>
For top bond stories TOP BON <GO>
Greek crisis special report: EXT3 <GO>

--With assistance from Benjamin Levisohn in New York. Editors:
Daniel Tilles, Dave Liedtka

To contact the reporter on this story:
Ben Martin in London +44-20-7073-3397 or
bmartin38@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Ben Livesey at +44-20-7673-2371 or
blivesey@bloomberg.net.

(AFL) Produção industrial da Zona do euro tem maior avanço desde 91

Produção industrial da Zona do euro tem maior avanço desde 1991
2010-06-14 10:33:47.520 GMT


Reuters

Bruxelas, Bélgica (FolhaNews)
A produção industrial da zona do euro registrou em abril a maior alta na
comparação anual em quase duas décadas, segundo dados da Agência de Estatísticas
Eurostat, divulgados nesta segunda-feira.

A atividade cresceu 0,8% sobre março e saltou 9,5% ante abril de 2009, a maior
variação desde o início da série histórica em janeiro de 1991.

A Eurostat revisou para cima o dado de março, para crescimento de 1,5% ante
fevereiro e de 7,7% sobre o ano passado, ante as leituras preliminares de,
respectivamente, 1,3% e 6,9%.


Provider ID: 00011AFL
-0- Jun/14/2010 10:33 GMT

Acho bom venda de 14.75 / 15 put pra outubro

time will tell

Sugar Short is over? Maybe YES!

Output in Center South, Brazil's main cane-growing region, jumped 26 percent in May's first half as mills processed a record crop, industry association Unica said last week. Some traders are betting that production may start to slow because of excessive rain and lack of sun during growing months, according to researcher Kingsman SA.

"We will have to keep a sharp eye out on the Unica crush numbers as we move through the season,"Jonathan Kingsman, managing director of Lausanne, Switzerland-based Kingsman, wrote in a report yesterday after trading closed. "The bulls argue that as the season progresses, the cane will lose both agricultural and industrial yield."

(BN) Investors Pick U.S. Over BRICs in Bloomberg User Poll

Investors Pick U.S. Over BRICs in Bloomberg User Poll (Update1)
2010-06-08 01:21:00.211 GMT


    (Adds Hungary's pledge to control deficit in second
paragraph under Debt Crisis sub-headline.)

By Mike Dorning
    June 8 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. has supplanted China and
Brazil as the most attractive market for investors as confidence
in the global economic recovery wanes in the wake of the Greek
debt crisis.
    Investors are putting their money on President Barack
Obama's stewardship of the U.S. economy even as his job-approval
rating has declined, according to a global quarterly poll of
investors and analysts who are Bloomberg subscribers.
    Almost four of 10 respondents picked the U.S. as the market
presenting the best opportunities in the year ahead. That's more
than double the portion who said so last October, when the U.S.
was rated the market posing the greatest downside risk by a
plurality of respondents.
    Lawrence Summers, director of the White House National
Economic Council, said this attests to Obama's efforts at
"restoring the United States to strong economic fundamentals."
He added that "while there remains much to do, the U.S. economy
is growing."
    "We've seen the bottom; we're firm, and the United States
is slowly moving forward," said Wayne Smith, 51, managing
director of fixed-income trading at Uniondale, New York-based
Northeast Securities, which manages $3.5 billion.
    Following the U.S.'s 39 percent rating as the most
promising market were Brazil, chosen by 29 percent; China, 28
percent; and India, 27 percent. Those are three of the four so-
called BRICs, large emerging markets that also include Russia.
Just 6 percent chose Russia.
    In a poll taken in January, China was the favorite followed
by Brazil. Respondents were allowed to pick multiple countries.

                     'Least Dirty Shirt'

    The U.S. is one of the few relative bright spots in a
global market rattled by the Greek debt crisis. Bill Gross, co-
chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co.
and manager of the world's largest bond fund, called the U.S.
"the least dirty shirt," in a Bloomberg Radio interview.
    Forty-two percent of investors now believe the world
economy is deteriorating, double the 21 percent who thought so
in January. U.S. investors were the most pessimistic about the
global economy, with 58 percent saying it is getting worse
versus 31 percent of Europeans and 35 percent of Asians.
Europeans were the most pessimistic about their own region, with
40 percent viewing it as deteriorating; 21 percent of U.S.
investors viewed their home region negatively, while 9 percent
in Asia felt that way.
    International views of the European Union have declined
sharply. More than half of respondents believe the EU offers the
worst investment opportunities, up from a third who said so in
January, when Europe also ranked at the bottom.

                         Debt Crisis

    The crisis in Greece, where soaring deficits have stirred
fears of a government default, has rippled throughout Europe,
with credit agencies downgrading sovereign debt in Portugal and
Spain. On June 4, stocks slumped as a comment by a Hungarian
official that his nation's economy is in a "very grave
situation" fanned concern the debt crisis will spread.
    Hungary's government yesterday pledged to control the
budget deficit and make structural changes to overhaul the
economy as it distanced itself from suggestions the country was
facing a Greece-like crisis.
    The turmoil has drawn a flood of international money into
U.S. government debt, with yields on 10-year Treasury notes
dropping from 3.99 percent on April 5 to 3.15 percent at 4:18
p.m., New York time yesterday. While the Standard & Poor's 500
Index has declined more than 13 percent since its April 23 high,
the benchmark U.S. stock index is up more than 30 percent since
Obama took office.

                        Can't Keep Up

    "While American companies cut down the workforce at their
plants as fast before as they are now hiring workers back,
European companies were not able to respond in a similar way,"
said poll respondent Ofir Navot, 35, of Tel Aviv, head of global
investments for Ramco Mutual Funds, which manages about $400
million.
    Investors' rising confidence in the U.S. economy isn't
reflected in their appraisal of Obama: The poll shows his job-
approval rating dropped to 51 percent from 60 percent in
January.
    Investors remain bullish on China's long-term prospects.
More than 6 of 10 believe China will replace the U.S. as the
world's largest economy within 20 years. Almost a quarter
believe it will do so within a decade.
    Respondents don't share Treasury Secretary Timothy
Geithner's optimism that China will revalue its currency soon. A
majority said it will be at least a year before the country does
so.

                         Making Money

    The quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll of investors, traders
and analysts on six continents was conducted June 2-3 by Selzer
& Co., a Des Moines, Iowa-based firm. It is based on interviews
with a random sample of 1,001 Bloomberg subscribers,
representing decision makers in markets, finance and economics.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage
points.
    Even with the pessimism over the global outlook, more
investors see a chance to make money in this environment.
Thirty-five percent said they are seeing opportunity and taking
risks, up from 27 percent who said so in January. Asian
investors were especially likely to see rewards ahead, with 48
percent saying they are taking more risks.
    With poll respondents confident in U.S. growth prospects,
the emerging doubts about a global economic recovery haven't
translated into major shifts in views toward asset classes. As
in the January poll, stocks are considered the most attractive
asset class for the coming year. While commodities were second,
the portion of investors choosing them declined to 23 percent
from 31 percent.

                       Bearish on Bonds

    Bonds were chosen as the asset class likely to offer the
worst returns, with 36 percent of respondents saying that. Real
estate was rated next worst, chosen by 24 percent.
    Investors in Asia, where there are fears that China's
property market is overheated, were the most pessimistic about
real estate, rating it the worst asset to hold.
    Poll respondents by an almost 2-to-1 margin expect to
increase rather than decrease holdings of stocks during the next
six months.
    More than half of investors believe the S&P 500 index will
be higher in six months, though sentiments are bearish on the
Euro Stoxx 50 index and Britain's FTSE index.
    Investors are also bullish on crude oil prices, which
usually rise along with economic activity. Forty-nine percent
believe oil prices will be higher in six months compared with 24
percent who say they will be lower. The rest expect little
change.

                       Gold Seen Rising

    By a margin of 47 percent to 30 percent, respondents say
they expect the price of gold, a traditional hedge against
political and economic turmoil, to rise in six months. By a
margin of 50 percent to 25 percent, they see yields on the 10-
year Treasury note rising.
    Fears of inflation are muted. Only a little more than a
quarter consider it a major threat in "the next couple years."
The regions considered most at risk were China, cited by 19
percent of respondents, followed by the U.S., cited by 17
percent, and the Euro zone, picked by 10 percent.
    To see the methodology and exact wording of the poll
questions, click on the attachment tab at the top of the story.

For Related News and Information:
U.S. economic data watch: ESNP US <GO>
U.S. unemployment rate: USURTOT <INDEX> GP <GO>
U.S. economic forecasts: ECFC US <GO>
European economic forecasts: ECFC EU <GO>
European crisis monitor: CRIS <GO>
Bloomberg stories on the economy: TNI US ECO BN <GO>
Bloomberg news on the Federal Reserve: NI FED BN <GO>

--Editors: Mark McQuillan, Max Berley.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mike Dorning in
Washington at +1-202-624-1971 or mdorning@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Chris Wellisz at +1-202-624-1862 or cwellisz@bloomberg.net.

Quem se deu bem e quem se deu mal nesta crise na BOVESPA

MRR de dois periodos quase iguais do IBOVESPA e gráfico simples para ilustrar o retracement da queda.

Barclays: Implications of the EU’s ‘mega package’

We assess sovereign solvency in Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Italy. In addition to government debt dynamics, we account for financing needs, banking sector risks and reliance on foreign capital. Our results suggest: 1) while Greece has the worst debt dynamics, the five countries' overall vulnerability scores move closer together when liquidity needs, banking sector risks and exposure to 'sudden stops' in foreign capital flows are included; 2) Italy appears much more robust than the rest of the group; 3) the EU-ECB actions last weekend can go a long way in addressing financing and liquidity-related issues, thereby lowering the risk of self-fulfilling dynamics; and 4) however, the massive adjustment challenge of turning around these countries' debt dynamics remains. This is likely to shift markets' attention to the actual implementation of the promised fiscal reforms and economic performance in response to them. If these disappoint, the very positive market reaction of recent days may not last.

(BN) Dow Plunges Most Since 1987 Before Paring Losses; Euro

Dow Plunges Most Since 1987 Before Paring Losses; Euro Tumbles
2010-05-06 20:06:04.294 GMT


By Michael P. Regan and Rita Nazareth
    May 6 (Bloomberg) -- The Dow Jones Industrial Average had
its biggest intraday loss since the market crash of 1987, the
euro slid to a 14-month low and yields on Greek, Spanish and
Italian bonds surged on concern European leaders aren't doing
enough to stem the region's debt crisis. U.S. Treasuries soared.
    New York Stock Exchange spokesman Rich Adamonis said "there
were a number of erroneous trades" during the plunge. The NYSE
told CNBC that there were no system errors as speculation of
erroneous trades swirled through the market. The Nasdaq OMX
Group Inc. said it is working with other markets to review the
plunge.
    The Dow average lost as much as 998.5 points, or 9.2
percent, before paring its drop to 348.63 points at the 4 p.m.
close of trading in New York. It ended the day at 10,519.49, a
two-month low. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell as much as
8.6 percent, its biggest plunge since December 2008, before
trimming declines to end down 3.3 percent at 1,128.03.
    "It's panic selling," said Burt White, chief investment
officer at LPL Financial in Boston, which oversees $379 billion.
"There's concern that the European situation might cool down
global growth and freeze the credit markets."
    European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet held
interest rates at a record low of 1 percent today and said the
bank didn't discuss whether to purchase government bonds to stem
the region's debt crisis, defying market speculation that he
would take such measures.
    The euro maintained losses even as Greece's parliament
approved austerity measures demanded by the European Union and
International Monetary Fund as a condition of its 110 billion
euro ($140 billion) bailout.

                      Market 'Horrified'

    "The ECB can fix this instantly by doing what the Fed has
done -- instantly providing liquidity by buying bad fixed-income
instruments and paying cash in U.S. dollars," said David
Kovacs, head of quantitative strategies at Turner Investment
Partners in Berwyn, Pennsylvania, which manages $18 billion.
"The reason the market is horrified now is Trichet said it's
not even being discussed. Smart investors are basically selling
risk assets."
    The MSCI Asia Pacific Index joined the MSCI World Index and
the Stoxx 600 Index in wiping out its advance for 2010. The Dow
and S&P 500 briefly erased their yearly gains before paring
losses.
    Bank of America Corp., Hewlett-Packard Co. and American
Express Co. tumbled more than 4.5 percent to lead declines in
the 30-stock Dow average.
    The benchmark index for U.S. stock options surged as much
as 63 percent, the most since February 2007, to 40.71 before
paring its advance to 37 percent. The VIX, as the Chicago Board
Options Exchange Volatility Index is known, measures the cost of
using options as insurance against declines in the S&P 500.

                       Treasury Yields

    Yields on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes plunged 16 basis
points to 3.377 percent on demand for assets considered the most
safe. The Dollar Index, which measures the currency against six
major trading partners, jumped as much as 1.4 percent. The yen
and Swiss franc also strengthened.
    Yields on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage securities
that guide U.S. home-loan rates jumped the most relative to
Treasuries in almost a year.
    Spreads on Fannie Mae's current-coupon 30-year fixed-rate
mortgage bonds widened about 0.1 percentage point to 0.89
percentage point more than 10-year Treasuries as of 2:45 p.m. in
New York, the biggest jump since May 27, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg.
    The gap touched a record low of 0.59 percentage point on
March 29 as the Federal Reserve that month completed its
purchases of $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage bonds.
    "Fear is taking over, and images of Greek mobs aren't
helping," said Larry Peruzzi, equity trader at Cabrera Capital
Markets in Boston, Massachusetts, referring to televised images
of demonstrations against austerity measures in Athens. "Buyers
are stepping aside and disregarding fundamentals."

For Related News and Information:
Developed Markets View: DMMV <GO>
Emerging Markets View: EMMV <GO>
World equity valuations: WPE <GO>
World equity index monitor: WEI <GO>
Bonds and Money Markets Page: BTMM <GO>
Cross Currency Rates: FXC <GO>
World Currency Ranker: WCRS <GO>
Market map of today's trading: MXWO <Index> IMAP <GO>
Commodities Prices: GLCO <GO>

--With assistance from Mark Gilbert and Keith Jenkins in London,
Simon Kennedy in Paris, Simone Meier in Dublin, John Detrixhe,
Elizabeth Stanton, Inyoung Hwang and Michael Tsang and Mark
Shenk in New York and Pham-Duy Nguyen in Seattle. Editors: Chris
Nagi, Dan Hauck.

To contact the reporters on this story:
Michael P. Regan in New York at +1-212-617-7747 or
Mregan12@bloomberg.net;
Rita Nazareth in New York at +1-212-617-8908 or
rnazareth@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Chris Nagi at +1-212-617-2179 or chrisnagi@bloomberg.net.

THE ECB'S ROCK AND HARD PLACE - Article by State Street Bank

+ THE ECB'S ROCK AND HARD PLACE ++ - Article by State Street Bank

Morning,

A timely note from our strategist Lee Ferridge around the dangers the ECB
face later today if they decide to inject further stimulus via quantitative
easing -

There is much market speculation that the European Central Bank will on
Thursday announce a quantitative easing programme designed to purchase
Greek government bonds and hence, reduce both pressure on Greece and help
to fight the contagion that has gripped European markets (and those further
afield) in recent days. While it can be argued that the Fed's QE programme
of 2009 and early 2010 (and, to a lesser extent, that of the Bank of
England) proved successful in heading off the "great depression" risk
following the bursting of the credit bubble, the dilemma facing the ECB is
entirely different.

The Fed's QE programme was designed to stimulate the domestic economy
further when traditional monetary policy (i.e. interest rates) had reached
their lower bound (i.e. zero). No more stimulus could be provided at the
short-end of the curve and hence, money was printed in order to buy
government bonds and thereby reduce rates at the longer-end (which is what
QE effectively does).

However, if the ECB were to QE now, it would not be because monetary policy
had reached its lower bound, while EUR 2-yr swap rates yesterday reached
record lows. Rather any ECB QE programme would be started simply because
there are no buyers of Greek government debt – i.e. the ECB would be
monetizing the fiscal deficit; printing money to finance a fiscal policy
that has lost market credibility; the Zimbabwe scenario. Printing money to
overcome the lower bound of monetary policy and printing money in order to
fund government debt is a subtle, but extremely important distinction.
Monetising fiscal mistakes risks further undermining confidence in European
government debt, leading to even higher longer-term rates and hence, more
money printing.

Not only this, but both ECB independence and, the supposed separation of
fiscal and monetary policy would also be thrown into question by such an
announcement on Thursday. The Fed and BoE faced similar risks in 2009 but,
given the alternative of the great depression and lost decade they were
given the benefit of the doubt by the market. The ECB faces an entirely
different set of circumstances and hence, if it uses its "nuclear option"
on Thursday any relief for the euro is likely to be short-lived; a matter
of days (or even hours), rather than weeks. Of course, with no such
announcement Thursday there will be no relief for the euro; a further
widening in periphery bond spreads and a fresh euro sell-off will ensue.
The rock and the hard place – make your choice Mr Trichet. Either way, the
outlook for the euro remains bleak

SPX vs Dollar Index vs Crude Oil year to date returns

(BN) U.S. Consumer Confidence Report for April (Text)

2010-04-27 14:00:53.97 GMT


    April 27 (Bloomberg) -- Following is the text of
U.S. consumer confidence from the Conference Board.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had
rebounded in March, increased further in April. The Index now
stands at 57.9 (1985=100), up from 52.3 in March. The Present
Situation Index increased to 28.6 from 25.2. The Expectations
Index improved to 77.4 from 70.4.

The Consumer Confidence Survey® is based on a representative
sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is
conducted for The Conference Board by TNS. TNS is the world's
largest custom research company. The cutoff date for April's
preliminary results was April 20th.

Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer
Research Center: "Consumer confidence, which had rebounded in
March, gained further ground in April. The Index is now at its
highest reading in about a year and a half (Sept. 2008, 61.4).
Consumers' concerns about current business and labor market
conditions eased again. And, their outlook regarding business
conditions and the labor market was also more positive than
last month. Looking ahead, continued job growth will be key
in sustaining positive momentum."

Consumers' appraisal of present-day conditions was more
positive in April. Those claiming conditions are "good"
increased to 9.1 percent from 8.5 percent, while those
claiming business conditions are "bad" declined to 40.2
percent from 42.1 percent. Consumers' appraisal of the labor
market also improved. Those saying jobs are "plentiful"
increased to 4.8 percent from 4.0 percent, while those saying
jobs are "hard to get" decreased to 45.0 percent from 46.3
percent.

Consumers' outlook was also brighter in April. The percentage
of consumers expecting business conditions will improve over
the next six months increased to 19.8 percent from 18.0 percent,
while those expecting conditions will worsen declined to 12.6
percent from 13.6 percent.

Consumers were also more optimistic about the job outlook. The
percentage of consumers anticipating more jobs in the months
ahead increased to 18.0 percent from 14.1 percent, while those
anticipating fewer jobs declined to 20.0 percent from 21.4
percent. The proportion of consumers anticipating an increase
in their incomes declined to 10.3 from 10.8 percent.


The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, May 25, at 10:00
AM ET.

SOURCE: The Conference Board
http://www.conference-board.org

--Editor: Alex Tanzi


To contact the reporter on this story:
Alex Tanzi in Washington at +1-202-624-1959 or
atanzi@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Marco Babic at +65 6212-1886 or mbabic@bloomberg.net

New-home sales surge 26,9% to 411,000 pace

It was the largest percentage gain in sales since April 1963, the government said. It was the highest sales pace since July, and much stronger than the 325,000 expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. See our complete economic calendar and consensus forecast.

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Pelo menos eu vejo uma neste grafico intradiario 60 min.