quinta-feira, 17 de fevereiro de 2011
(BN) BMW at $260,000 as Singapore Tax Keeps Cars for Rich
BMW at $260,000 as Singapore Tax Keeps Cars for Rich (Update2)
2011-02-17 07:42:21.578 GMT
(Adds government's GDP forecast in eighth paragraph.)
By Kristine Aquino
Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Francis Goh sits in a bronze BMW
335i convertible in a Singapore showroom, waggling the wheel and
feeling the leather. He isn't fazed by the S$340,000 ($260,000)
price tag, five times what the same car costs in the U.S.
"I see the price of a BMW, to me it's reasonable," said
Goh, adding that he may instead go for a Mercedes-Benz E200 or
Audi A5 to replace his Subaru Impreza WRX.
Record economic growth in the city state is enabling buyers
like Goh, a 34-year-old financial industry worker, to splash out
on Bayerische Motoren Werke AG and Daimler AG autos even as a
24-fold jump in the cost of a car permit inflates costs. As the
government cuts the number of new autos on sale, prices which
are already among the highest globally look set to rise further.
Singapore has increased spending on public transport and
reduced the number of new car licenses to rein in auto sales and
curb pollution and congestion as the booming economy boosts the
buying power of the country's residents. Last year, Prime
Minister Lee Hsien Loong promised to spend S$60 billion over 10
years to double the size of the subway network.
"High customer disposable incomes" are spurring demand
for cars in Singapore, said Vivek Vaidya, automotive and
transportation director at researcher Frost & Sullivan. The
reduction in permits "is bound to put the prices in upward
spiral."
Taxing Licenses
Car buyers in Singapore must pay for excise and
registration duties of about 150 percent of the vehicle's market
value, as well as bid for a limited number of government
permits, called certificates of entitlement, that allow a car on
the road for 10 years. The cost of a permit alone would now buy
a new Porsche Boxster in the U.S., or a C-Class Mercedes in Hong
Kong, where curbside pollution rose to a record last year.
Singapore posted 14.5 percent economic growth last year,
based on the government's revised figures today, swelling the
ranks of the city's millionaires by 35 percent. The country has
the highest proportion of millionaire households at 11.4
percent, according to the Boston Consulting Group. On top of
that, the population has grown 23 percent in the past decade,
adding to congestion in a country about the size of Chicago.
The government today kept its forecast for the economy to
grow 4 percent to 6 percent in 2011, even as there's "some
upside potential" to the target.
Fewer Permits
The Ministry of Transport has cut the number of new-car
permits it auctions twice a month, driving the price of the so-
called open-category COE, which can be used for any size of car,
to an average S$71,339 in January. That permit cost S$19,889 at
the beginning of 2010 and as little as S$3,000 two years ago.
Once the certificate expires, owners either have to bid for a
new 10-year permit, export the car, or scrap it.
Government figures show Singapore's air pollutant levels in
the last five years have been as much as 88 percent below the
limits recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
Hong Kong's levels in the same period exceeded the limits by as
much as 12 percent.
The government has said it aims to make public transport
the "choice mode" for Singaporeans. The Ministry of Transport
spent S$17.8 billion in the past five years to build two more
subway lines, 37 more train stations and a five-kilometer
expressway by 2013.
New-car quotas are based on a "sustainable" growth rate,
according to the ministry's website. Only about 15 percent of
people own a car in Singapore, compared with 82 percent in the
U.S., World Bank figures show.
Cash Upfront
A higher COE price tends to hurt sales of cheaper cars more
than luxury models because it accounts for a bigger percentage
of the total cost.
"If we stick to Japanese cars and the budget-constrained
segment, we are not going to make money," said Dennis Lim,
owner of dealership Auto Equator, which sells brands such as
Jaguar and Mercedes-Benz, as well as Isuzu. For high-end autos,
"the extra S$20,000 to S$30,000 on the COE is nothing when the
total car price is S$300,000 or more. They're not so price-
sensitive."
Luxury car brands including Aston Martin, Porsche and Fiat
SpA's Ferrari saw sales surge as much as 115 percent last year,
the Straits Times reported on Jan. 28. Overall auto sales dipped
to 42,000 units, less than half the annual average in the past
five years, the newspaper said.
"Our biggest hurdle is for customers to get over the
upfront cash they will have to fork out to purchase the car,"
said Ron Lim, general manager at Tan Chong Motor Sales Pte Ltd.,
Singapore's official distributor of Nissan cars.
'Choice is Made'
With up to 95 percent of his customers being middle-class
Singaporean families, Tan Chong's Lim said his challenge this
year will be to sell the same number of cars as last year.
"Car dealers in Singapore have to make a choice: either
they attract higher-end or lower-end customers," Vaidya said.
"Considering that they can only have a finite number of cars on
the road, the choice is made."
Part of the reason for a jump in permit prices is reduced
supply. After the ministry announced a total quota of 23,063 for
August 2010 to January 2011, the open COE surged to a record
$76,102 in December. In the latest tender over the lunar new
year holiday, the price fell to S$58,890. For February to July
this year, the ministry reduced the quota to 22,368
certificates.
While new car distributors may struggle to replicate last
year's sales numbers, used car dealers such as Gary Hong,
general manager at Autobahn Motors, are enjoying new business.
Rising Demand
"The demand for used cars has gone up," said Hong, whose
stocks included a pre-owned 2008 BMW 335i convertible, which he
sold two days ago for more than S$300,000. "The COE for new
cars has been going for more money. Those people who choose not
to pay the premium, they go for used cars as an option."
With a new Toyota Motor Corp. Yaris costing about $68,000
in Singapore, compared with $15,300 in New York and $18,100 in
London, some are reluctant to buy at all.
"I'm having second thoughts about buying a car," said
Stephan Ritzmann, 48, a Swiss executive at a local luxury watch
retailer who moved to Singapore from Tokyo in December. "In
Switzerland, cars cost less than half of what they cost here.
The government wants us to use public transport and it works
pretty well."
For Singaporeans like Goh, who are used to the high tax
system and can afford the cost, car ownership remains important.
"I don't care how much the COE costs," said Goh, whose
five previous cars were all Japanese. "Owning a car to me is
not just about prestige -- like, wow, I'm able to own a car in
Singapore! For me, a car is for convenience."
For Related News and Information:
Most-read stories on Singapore's economy: MNI SECO <GO>
Singapore's inflation rate: SICPIYOY <Index> HP <GO>
News search on retail sales: STNI RETSALES <GO>
Singapore COE prices: NI COE <GO>
--Editors: Lars Klemming, Adam Majendie
To contact the reporter on this story:
Kristine Aquino in Singapore at +65-6212-1550 or
kaquino1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Lars Klemming at +65-6212-1150 or lklemming@bloomberg.net
2011-02-17 07:42:21.578 GMT
(Adds government's GDP forecast in eighth paragraph.)
By Kristine Aquino
Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Francis Goh sits in a bronze BMW
335i convertible in a Singapore showroom, waggling the wheel and
feeling the leather. He isn't fazed by the S$340,000 ($260,000)
price tag, five times what the same car costs in the U.S.
"I see the price of a BMW, to me it's reasonable," said
Goh, adding that he may instead go for a Mercedes-Benz E200 or
Audi A5 to replace his Subaru Impreza WRX.
Record economic growth in the city state is enabling buyers
like Goh, a 34-year-old financial industry worker, to splash out
on Bayerische Motoren Werke AG and Daimler AG autos even as a
24-fold jump in the cost of a car permit inflates costs. As the
government cuts the number of new autos on sale, prices which
are already among the highest globally look set to rise further.
Singapore has increased spending on public transport and
reduced the number of new car licenses to rein in auto sales and
curb pollution and congestion as the booming economy boosts the
buying power of the country's residents. Last year, Prime
Minister Lee Hsien Loong promised to spend S$60 billion over 10
years to double the size of the subway network.
"High customer disposable incomes" are spurring demand
for cars in Singapore, said Vivek Vaidya, automotive and
transportation director at researcher Frost & Sullivan. The
reduction in permits "is bound to put the prices in upward
spiral."
Taxing Licenses
Car buyers in Singapore must pay for excise and
registration duties of about 150 percent of the vehicle's market
value, as well as bid for a limited number of government
permits, called certificates of entitlement, that allow a car on
the road for 10 years. The cost of a permit alone would now buy
a new Porsche Boxster in the U.S., or a C-Class Mercedes in Hong
Kong, where curbside pollution rose to a record last year.
Singapore posted 14.5 percent economic growth last year,
based on the government's revised figures today, swelling the
ranks of the city's millionaires by 35 percent. The country has
the highest proportion of millionaire households at 11.4
percent, according to the Boston Consulting Group. On top of
that, the population has grown 23 percent in the past decade,
adding to congestion in a country about the size of Chicago.
The government today kept its forecast for the economy to
grow 4 percent to 6 percent in 2011, even as there's "some
upside potential" to the target.
Fewer Permits
The Ministry of Transport has cut the number of new-car
permits it auctions twice a month, driving the price of the so-
called open-category COE, which can be used for any size of car,
to an average S$71,339 in January. That permit cost S$19,889 at
the beginning of 2010 and as little as S$3,000 two years ago.
Once the certificate expires, owners either have to bid for a
new 10-year permit, export the car, or scrap it.
Government figures show Singapore's air pollutant levels in
the last five years have been as much as 88 percent below the
limits recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
Hong Kong's levels in the same period exceeded the limits by as
much as 12 percent.
The government has said it aims to make public transport
the "choice mode" for Singaporeans. The Ministry of Transport
spent S$17.8 billion in the past five years to build two more
subway lines, 37 more train stations and a five-kilometer
expressway by 2013.
New-car quotas are based on a "sustainable" growth rate,
according to the ministry's website. Only about 15 percent of
people own a car in Singapore, compared with 82 percent in the
U.S., World Bank figures show.
Cash Upfront
A higher COE price tends to hurt sales of cheaper cars more
than luxury models because it accounts for a bigger percentage
of the total cost.
"If we stick to Japanese cars and the budget-constrained
segment, we are not going to make money," said Dennis Lim,
owner of dealership Auto Equator, which sells brands such as
Jaguar and Mercedes-Benz, as well as Isuzu. For high-end autos,
"the extra S$20,000 to S$30,000 on the COE is nothing when the
total car price is S$300,000 or more. They're not so price-
sensitive."
Luxury car brands including Aston Martin, Porsche and Fiat
SpA's Ferrari saw sales surge as much as 115 percent last year,
the Straits Times reported on Jan. 28. Overall auto sales dipped
to 42,000 units, less than half the annual average in the past
five years, the newspaper said.
"Our biggest hurdle is for customers to get over the
upfront cash they will have to fork out to purchase the car,"
said Ron Lim, general manager at Tan Chong Motor Sales Pte Ltd.,
Singapore's official distributor of Nissan cars.
'Choice is Made'
With up to 95 percent of his customers being middle-class
Singaporean families, Tan Chong's Lim said his challenge this
year will be to sell the same number of cars as last year.
"Car dealers in Singapore have to make a choice: either
they attract higher-end or lower-end customers," Vaidya said.
"Considering that they can only have a finite number of cars on
the road, the choice is made."
Part of the reason for a jump in permit prices is reduced
supply. After the ministry announced a total quota of 23,063 for
August 2010 to January 2011, the open COE surged to a record
$76,102 in December. In the latest tender over the lunar new
year holiday, the price fell to S$58,890. For February to July
this year, the ministry reduced the quota to 22,368
certificates.
While new car distributors may struggle to replicate last
year's sales numbers, used car dealers such as Gary Hong,
general manager at Autobahn Motors, are enjoying new business.
Rising Demand
"The demand for used cars has gone up," said Hong, whose
stocks included a pre-owned 2008 BMW 335i convertible, which he
sold two days ago for more than S$300,000. "The COE for new
cars has been going for more money. Those people who choose not
to pay the premium, they go for used cars as an option."
With a new Toyota Motor Corp. Yaris costing about $68,000
in Singapore, compared with $15,300 in New York and $18,100 in
London, some are reluctant to buy at all.
"I'm having second thoughts about buying a car," said
Stephan Ritzmann, 48, a Swiss executive at a local luxury watch
retailer who moved to Singapore from Tokyo in December. "In
Switzerland, cars cost less than half of what they cost here.
The government wants us to use public transport and it works
pretty well."
For Singaporeans like Goh, who are used to the high tax
system and can afford the cost, car ownership remains important.
"I don't care how much the COE costs," said Goh, whose
five previous cars were all Japanese. "Owning a car to me is
not just about prestige -- like, wow, I'm able to own a car in
Singapore! For me, a car is for convenience."
For Related News and Information:
Most-read stories on Singapore's economy: MNI SECO <GO>
Singapore's inflation rate: SICPIYOY <Index> HP <GO>
News search on retail sales: STNI RETSALES <GO>
Singapore COE prices: NI COE <GO>
--Editors: Lars Klemming, Adam Majendie
To contact the reporter on this story:
Kristine Aquino in Singapore at +65-6212-1550 or
kaquino1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Lars Klemming at +65-6212-1150 or lklemming@bloomberg.net
quarta-feira, 16 de fevereiro de 2011
Iridium Climbs 4.8% to Highest Price Since at Least
From: NLRT ALERT (BLOOMBERG/ 731 LEXIN)
At: 2/16 12:48:47
Iridium Climbs 4.8% to Highest Price Since at Least January 2001
Iridium climbed $45, or 4.8 percent, to $985 an ounce in London, the highest price since at least January 2001, according to Johnson Matthey Plc data on Bloomberg.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The attached story matches the criteria for the News Alert named "COMMODITIES (SALT)". Type {97 <GO>} to view the story on wire BN (BLOOMBERG News).
At: 2/16 12:48:47
Iridium Climbs 4.8% to Highest Price Since at Least January 2001
Iridium climbed $45, or 4.8 percent, to $985 an ounce in London, the highest price since at least January 2001, according to Johnson Matthey Plc data on Bloomberg.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The attached story matches the criteria for the News Alert named "COMMODITIES (SALT)". Type {97 <GO>} to view the story on wire BN (BLOOMBERG News).
(BN) Brazil’s Government Spending Cut Is Enough, Fraga Tells O Estado
Brazil's Government Spending Cut Is Enough, Fraga Tells O Estado
2011-02-16 12:31:41.120 GMT
By Francisco Marcelino
Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- BM&FBovespa SA's Chairman Arminio
Fraga said the 50 billion-real ($30 billion) cut in Brazil's
2011 budget is enough to put government spending on a "balanced
path," O Estado de S. Paulo reported.
The Brazilian economy has shown signs of slowing down,
Fraga, a former central bank president, told the newspaper.
For Related News and Information:
Top Stories:{TOP<GO>}
To contact the reporter on this story:
Francisco Marcelino in Sao Paulo at +55-11-3048-4643 or
mdeoliveira@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Laura Price at +44-20-7330-7249 or
lprice3@bloomberg.net
2011-02-16 12:31:41.120 GMT
By Francisco Marcelino
Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- BM&FBovespa SA's Chairman Arminio
Fraga said the 50 billion-real ($30 billion) cut in Brazil's
2011 budget is enough to put government spending on a "balanced
path," O Estado de S. Paulo reported.
The Brazilian economy has shown signs of slowing down,
Fraga, a former central bank president, told the newspaper.
For Related News and Information:
Top Stories:{TOP<GO>}
To contact the reporter on this story:
Francisco Marcelino in Sao Paulo at +55-11-3048-4643 or
mdeoliveira@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Laura Price at +44-20-7330-7249 or
lprice3@bloomberg.net
quinta-feira, 10 de fevereiro de 2011
(BN) Egypt’s Mubarak to Decide Within Hours on Whether to Stay or Not
Egypt's Mubarak to Decide Within Hours on Whether to Stay or Not
2011-02-10 16:11:27.444 GMT
By Mariam Fam
Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak
will decide "within hours" whether he will step down or not,
according to cabinet spokesman Magdy Rady.
"The decision was not taken yet," Rady said when asked if
the president plans to step down today. "The decision will be
taken within hours by the governing bodies of the country and by
the authorities of the country and by the president of the
country. He has to decide himself whether he leaves or not."
For Related News and Information:
Top Stories:{TOP<GO>}
To contact the reporter on this story:
Mariam Fam in Cairo at 011-1-44-20-73307849 or
mfam1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Riad Hamade at +971-4-364-1034 or
rhamade@bloomberg.net
2011-02-10 16:11:27.444 GMT
By Mariam Fam
Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak
will decide "within hours" whether he will step down or not,
according to cabinet spokesman Magdy Rady.
"The decision was not taken yet," Rady said when asked if
the president plans to step down today. "The decision will be
taken within hours by the governing bodies of the country and by
the authorities of the country and by the president of the
country. He has to decide himself whether he leaves or not."
For Related News and Information:
Top Stories:{TOP<GO>}
To contact the reporter on this story:
Mariam Fam in Cairo at 011-1-44-20-73307849 or
mfam1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Riad Hamade at +971-4-364-1034 or
rhamade@bloomberg.net
Bloomberg: China Iron Ore Prices Rise to Highest Since at Least Nov 2008
Another Momentum Bull illustration
China Iron Ore Prices Rise to Highest Since at Least Nov. 2008
The price of iron ore imported into China's Tianjin port rose to the highest since at least November 2008, gaining 0.9 percent to $188 a metric ton, according to Steel Business Briefing data. (http://www.bloomberg.com )
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
China Iron Ore Prices Rise to Highest Since at Least Nov. 2008
The price of iron ore imported into China's Tianjin port rose to the highest since at least November 2008, gaining 0.9 percent to $188 a metric ton, according to Steel Business Briefing data. (http://www.bloomberg.com )
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BARCLAYS: A return to scarcity: The disinflation trend is over
| A return to scarcity: The disinflation trend is over |
|
terça-feira, 8 de fevereiro de 2011
(PBN) Balança comercial do Brasil indica alta na bolsa:
Balança comercial do Brasil indica alta na bolsa: Gráfico do Dia
2011-02-08 08:42:40.906 GMT
Por Jonathan J. Levin
8 de fevereiro (Bloomberg) -- A mudança na balança
comercial brasileira de um superávit para um déficit é sinal de
que as ações do maior mercado da América Latina devem estender
os ganhos dos últimos dois anos, segundo o Wells Capital
Management.
O GRÁFICO DO DIA mostra que o índice de companhias
brasileiras compilado pela MSCI Inc. registrou alta enquanto o
superávit comercial do País encolhia por conta de um aumento nas
importações. No gráfico, o desempenho das ações brasileiras é
demonstrado por sua elevação em relação ao índice MSCI Emerging
Markets, que reúne ações de 21 países em desenvolvimento.
"Somos ensinados desde o começo que déficits são ruins e
superávits são bons em qualquer situação", disse James Paulsen,
estrategista-chefe de investimentos da Wells Capital Management,
sediada em Minneapolis, e que administra cerca de US$ 342
bilhões. "Na realidade, depende do que você está buscando. O
País está deixando de ser um fornecedor mundial para se tornar
um comprador mundial".
O déficit em conta corrente do País foi de 2,3 por cento do
Produto Interno Bruto no final de 2010, revertendo um superávit
que atingiu 2,1 por cento do PIB em abril de 2005.
A pontuação do índice de ações brasileiras MSCI
quadruplicou na última década, à medida que o País se tornava
uma economia de consumo. A Presidente Dilma Rousseff, que tomou
posse em 1 de janeiro, prometeu manter os programas sociais e
crescimento econômico que tirou 21 milhões de pessoas da pobreza
e mais que dobrou o salário mínimo desde 2003, sob o comando do
seu antecessor, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
"O ganho de longo prazo será em termos de desenvolvimento
interno - em ter mais e mais pessoas com trabalho e descobrindo
o que é a ganância", disse Paulsen.
Para notícias relacionadas:
Principais matérias em português: {TOP BR <GO>}
Principais matérias em inglês: {TOP <GO>}
Principais matérias sobre América Latina: {TOPL <GO>}
Sobre mercados emergentes em inglês: {NI EM <GO>}
--Com a colaboração de Ralph Cope, na Cidade do México. Editores
em português: José Sergio Osse, Telma Marotto
Para contatar o repórter:
Jonathan J. Levin, na Cidade do México, +52-55-5242-9276 ou
jlevin20@bloomberg.net
Para contatar o editor responsável:
David Papadopoulos, +1-212-617-5105 ou
Papadopoulos@bloomberg.net
Francisco Marcelino, +55-11-3048-4643 ou
mdeoliveira@bloomberg.net
Por Jonathan J. Levin
8 de fevereiro (Bloomberg) -- A mudança na balança
comercial brasileira de um superávit para um déficit é sinal de
que as ações do maior mercado da América Latina devem estender
os ganhos dos últimos dois anos, segundo o Wells Capital
Management.
O GRÁFICO DO DIA mostra que o índice de companhias
brasileiras compilado pela MSCI Inc. registrou alta enquanto o
superávit comercial do País encolhia por conta de um aumento nas
importações. No gráfico, o desempenho das ações brasileiras é
demonstrado por sua elevação em relação ao índice MSCI Emerging
Markets, que reúne ações de 21 países em desenvolvimento.
"Somos ensinados desde o começo que déficits são ruins e
superávits são bons em qualquer situação", disse James Paulsen,
estrategista-chefe de investimentos da Wells Capital Management,
sediada em Minneapolis, e que administra cerca de US$ 342
bilhões. "Na realidade, depende do que você está buscando. O
País está deixando de ser um fornecedor mundial para se tornar
um comprador mundial".
O déficit em conta corrente do País foi de 2,3 por cento do
Produto Interno Bruto no final de 2010, revertendo um superávit
que atingiu 2,1 por cento do PIB em abril de 2005.
A pontuação do índice de ações brasileiras MSCI
quadruplicou na última década, à medida que o País se tornava
uma economia de consumo. A Presidente Dilma Rousseff, que tomou
posse em 1 de janeiro, prometeu manter os programas sociais e
crescimento econômico que tirou 21 milhões de pessoas da pobreza
e mais que dobrou o salário mínimo desde 2003, sob o comando do
seu antecessor, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
"O ganho de longo prazo será em termos de desenvolvimento
interno - em ter mais e mais pessoas com trabalho e descobrindo
o que é a ganância", disse Paulsen.
Para notícias relacionadas:
Principais matérias em português: {TOP BR <GO>}
Principais matérias em inglês: {TOP <GO>}
Principais matérias sobre América Latina: {TOPL <GO>}
Sobre mercados emergentes em inglês: {NI EM <GO>}
--Com a colaboração de Ralph Cope, na Cidade do México. Editores
em português: José Sergio Osse, Telma Marotto
Para contatar o repórter:
Jonathan J. Levin, na Cidade do México, +52-55-5242-9276 ou
jlevin20@bloomberg.net
Para contatar o editor responsável:
David Papadopoulos, +1-212-617-5105 ou
Papadopoulos@bloomberg.net
Francisco Marcelino, +55-11-3048-4643 ou
mdeoliveira@bloomberg.net
segunda-feira, 7 de fevereiro de 2011
(BN) Geithner Says Brazil Capital Flows Boosted by Others’ Policies
By Ian Katz
Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Timothy F.
Geithner said Brazil is getting a disproportionate share of
capital inflows because other countries keep their currencies
undervalued.
"Investors around the world see Brazil growing at a faster
pace and offering higher rates of return relative to other major
economies," Geithner said today in remarks prepared for a
speech in Sao Paulo. "But these flows have been magnified by
the policies of other emerging economies that are trying to
sustain undervalued currencies, with tightly controlled
exchange-rate regimes."
Geithner didn't specify the countries. In a report to
Congress on Feb. 5, the Treasury Department said China had made
"insufficient" progress in allowing its currency to rise and
said the yuan remains "substantially undervalued." The report
on foreign-exchange markets also said South Korea needs more
exchange-rate flexibility.
Net private capital flows to developing countries expanded
44 percent in 2010 to about $753 billion, according to a World
Bank report last month. The nine countries that attracted the
bulk of capital flows were Brazil, China, India, Indonesia,
Malaysia, Mexico, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey, the report
said.
"Brazil and other emerging economies with flexible
exchange rates and open capital markets have borne a
disproportionate share of both the benefits and burdens of these
capital flows," said Geithner, who was scheduled to visit Sao
Paulo and Brasilia on a one-day visit to South America's largest
country. U.S. President Barack Obama plans to visit Brazil next
month.
Fastest Growth
A 38 percent rally of the Brazilian real in the past two
years, combined with the fastest growth in more than two
decades, has increased imports, prompting the government to take
measures to temper the currency gains. The central bank has
begun offering reserve currency swaps and buying dollars in the
spot and forward currency markets.
The administration of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff,
who took office Jan. 1, has "deep concerns" over the strength
of the real and may take trade measures to protect domestic
manufacturers from cheap imports, Trade Minister Fernando
Pimentel said Feb. 4.
Emerging economies such as Brazil need, "just as we do,
the support from the policy choices of other major economies,"
Geithner said.
"As countries with large surpluses act to strengthen
domestic demand in their economies, open their capital markets
and allow their currencies to reflect fundamentals, we will see
more balance in the flow of capital, less upward pressure on
Brazil's currency, and more robust growth in Brazil's exports,
especially manufacturing exports."
Geithner, 49, said the U.S. and Brazilian economies "are in a much stronger position than we were two years ago." The two countries' economic interests are "fundamentally aligned,"he said.
For Related News and Information:
Treasury stories: NI TRE <GO>
Brazil stories: NI BRAZIL <GO>
U.S. Economic Forecasts: ECFC <GO>
Latin America news: NI LATAM <GO>
--Editor: Kevin Costelloe
To contact the reporter on this story:
Ian Katz in Washington at +1-202-624-1827 or
ikatz2@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Christopher Wellisz at +1-202-624-1862 or
cwellisz@bloomberg.net
Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Timothy F.
Geithner said Brazil is getting a disproportionate share of
capital inflows because other countries keep their currencies
undervalued.
"Investors around the world see Brazil growing at a faster
pace and offering higher rates of return relative to other major
economies," Geithner said today in remarks prepared for a
speech in Sao Paulo. "But these flows have been magnified by
the policies of other emerging economies that are trying to
sustain undervalued currencies, with tightly controlled
exchange-rate regimes."
Geithner didn't specify the countries. In a report to
Congress on Feb. 5, the Treasury Department said China had made
"insufficient" progress in allowing its currency to rise and
said the yuan remains "substantially undervalued." The report
on foreign-exchange markets also said South Korea needs more
exchange-rate flexibility.
Net private capital flows to developing countries expanded
44 percent in 2010 to about $753 billion, according to a World
Bank report last month. The nine countries that attracted the
bulk of capital flows were Brazil, China, India, Indonesia,
Malaysia, Mexico, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey, the report
said.
"Brazil and other emerging economies with flexible
exchange rates and open capital markets have borne a
disproportionate share of both the benefits and burdens of these
capital flows," said Geithner, who was scheduled to visit Sao
Paulo and Brasilia on a one-day visit to South America's largest
country. U.S. President Barack Obama plans to visit Brazil next
month.
Fastest Growth
A 38 percent rally of the Brazilian real in the past two
years, combined with the fastest growth in more than two
decades, has increased imports, prompting the government to take
measures to temper the currency gains. The central bank has
begun offering reserve currency swaps and buying dollars in the
spot and forward currency markets.
The administration of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff,
who took office Jan. 1, has "deep concerns" over the strength
of the real and may take trade measures to protect domestic
manufacturers from cheap imports, Trade Minister Fernando
Pimentel said Feb. 4.
Emerging economies such as Brazil need, "just as we do,
the support from the policy choices of other major economies,"
Geithner said.
"As countries with large surpluses act to strengthen
domestic demand in their economies, open their capital markets
and allow their currencies to reflect fundamentals, we will see
more balance in the flow of capital, less upward pressure on
Brazil's currency, and more robust growth in Brazil's exports,
especially manufacturing exports."
Geithner, 49, said the U.S. and Brazilian economies "are in a much stronger position than we were two years ago." The two countries' economic interests are "fundamentally aligned,"he said.
For Related News and Information:
Treasury stories: NI TRE <GO>
Brazil stories: NI BRAZIL <GO>
U.S. Economic Forecasts: ECFC <GO>
Latin America news: NI LATAM <GO>
--Editor: Kevin Costelloe
To contact the reporter on this story:
Ian Katz in Washington at +1-202-624-1827 or
ikatz2@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Christopher Wellisz at +1-202-624-1862 or
cwellisz@bloomberg.net
(BN) Sugar Shortage Looms as Storm Ruins Australian Crop (Update2)
By Wendy Pugh
Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) -- World sugar output will probably fall
short of demand, said Rabobank, after a cyclone with winds
stronger than Hurricane Katrina destroyed homes and smashed
crops in Australia, driving prices to 30-year highs.
Tropical Cyclone Yasi ripped through northern Queensland, a
region growing a third of the country's cane, cutting output
potential in the area by about 50 percent, producers group
Canegrowers said Feb. 4. The storm, which the government says
may have wiped out at least A$500 million ($507 million) of
agricultural production, raised speculation that the world's
third-largest sugar exporter may struggle to match last year's
output that was the lowest in two decades.
"The whole house was shaking and vibrating," said Gerry
Borgna, 53, whose family has supplied cane to a mill at Tully,
about 140 kilometers (87 miles) south of Cairns, since the 1920s.
"We could hear things flying past and we thought it was part of
the house." At the farm, power lines were lying across the road,
a shed stood precariously and cane was pushed over. "To me,
this is a disaster," he said.
Raw sugar soared to 36.08 cents per pound on ICE Futures
U.S. in New York on Feb. 2, the highest level since 1980, as the
storm bore down on Queensland, and traded at 33.03 cents today.
"On a global basis we thought we would have a slim stock
build this year and it is likely that we are going to end up
with another deficit," Rabobank Australia Ltd. commodities
analyst Wayne Gordon said by phone yesterday.
Floods, Rain
Australian sugar output may be 3.5 million metric tons from
the June to December harvest this year, compared with 3.6
million tons from the previous crop, and down from expectations
of 4.2 million to 4.3 million tons, according to Rabobank.
Flooding and heavy rain before the cyclone reduced
estimates by about 500,000 tons and Yasi probably cut the
outlook by a further 300,000 tons, Gordon said.
Output may be 3.8 million tons next season, Australia & New
Zealand Banking Group Ltd. said on Feb. 3, while Commonwealth
Bank of Australia commodity strategist Luke Mathews said the
same day that the crop may be 3.6 million tons.
"It may well be that the production we saw last year might
be repeated," said John King, chief executive officer of Tully
Sugar Ltd., referring to national raw sugar output. "You would
like to think we can better that still, but a lot depends on the
growing conditions in the next months." The closely held
company is the target of a takeover bid from Bunge Ltd.
Weather Risks
World production may exceed demand by a "small" amount in
2011-2012, though the "fragile" balance will be vulnerable to
weather-related risks, C. Czarnikow Sugar Futures Ltd. said Jan.
31. The market will stay in deficit in 2010-2011, it said.
The International Sugar Organization in November lowered
its estimate for a global surplus to 1.3 million tons in 2010-
2011 from 2.7 million tons in August after drought and floods
damaged fields in Brazil, Russia, Pakistan and Australia.
"Based on what we're seeing in the meantime, there's every
reason that our surplus will remain very small," Lindsay Jolly,
a senior economist at the ISO, said in an interview in Geneva
Feb. 1. "It may disappear."
The destruction in Queensland from Yasi added to rain and
flooding that left 35 people dead and disrupted coal mining. The
nation, facing a bill that economists say may reach $20 billion
after two months of floods, will need to make budget cuts after
the cyclone exacerbated damage, Prime Minister Julia Gillard
said yesterday on Channel Ten's Meet the Press program.
Banana Crop
Yasi also slammed into a banana-growing region representing
about 85 percent of Australian production. Woolworths Ltd.
raised its prices for the fruit on Feb. 4 and warned the damage
would severely affect availability and prices in coming months.
"The region impacted by the cyclone contributes around A$1
billion of agricultural production annually, and initial reports
suggest at least half of that has been wiped out this year,
including around 80 percent of the state's banana crop,"
Treasurer Wayne Swan said yesterday.
Queensland Sugar Ltd., which handles more than 90 percent
of Australia's exports, said shipments from the 2010 crop were
2.2 million tons, the lowest level in more than two decades. The
cyclone and "extreme" rainfall since the middle of last year
were likely to keep exports to about the same level next season,
company Chief Executive Officer Neil Taylor said today.
Crop Reduction
The 2011 crop is likely to be "significantly reduced,"
Queensland Sugar said on Feb. 4. The national cane crush last
year was about 27 million tons compared with a usual level of
more than 32 million tons, said Brisbane-based Canegrowers in
December. The area north of Townsville typically crushes 10
million tons, the group said.
Tully may process about 1.4 million to 1.5 million tons of
cane this year, compared with 1.8 million tons last season when
the harvest was halted because of the weather, and down from a
pre-cyclone estimate for 2011 of 1.8 million to 2 million tons,
King said. Output would likely be curbed again in 2012 because
of the lingering effect on crops, he said.
"Even putting Cyclone Yasi to one side, it was going to
take a couple of years to rebound from the 2010 season," said
King, who left his shelter in the laundry of his Tully home
during the eye of the storm to see if the mill's smoke stacks
were still standing before "ferocious" winds returned.
'Blown Away'
The stacks survived the night, while two cooling towers
were on the ground, some sheeting was gone from the roof, a
garage was blown away and 35 houses owned by the company had
some form of damage, he said. The Red Cross is using a mill
meeting-hall to provide emergency assistance to residents, many
living in partly wrecked homes with no electricity.
"We have got off quite lightly from the mill point of
view," King said. The company has until the crushing season
starts in June to complete repairs.
Maryborough Sugar Factory Ltd. said in a statement last
week it expected a 5 percent to 10 percent reduction in its
total company estimate of 4 million tons of cane for the 2011
season. It has mills north of Tully in a joint venture with
Bundaberg Sugar Co., a unit of Brussels-based Finasucre.
Cane harvested this year will include so-called standover
material left from 2010 because of rain, cane planted last year
and re-growth crops harvested over several seasons. Borgna, who
estimated the cyclone may have cut his potential output by more
than 20 percent, said he was reluctant to lock in prices for
more of his cane by forward-selling.
Standover cane was "a mess," some of the crop may reach
half the height it should and root systems were damaged, he said.
"For this year I am about 40 percent priced," he said,
and he was cautious about pricing more because he didn't know
what crop he was going to get.
For Related News and Information:
Top Stories on Australia and New Zealand :TOPZ <GO>
Top agriculture stories: TOP AGR <GO>
Top Stories: TOP <GO>
--Editors: Jason Scott, James Poole
To contact the reporter on this story:
Wendy Pugh at +61-3-9228-8736 or
wpugh@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
James Poole at +65-6212-1551 or jpoole4@bloomberg.net
Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) -- World sugar output will probably fall
short of demand, said Rabobank, after a cyclone with winds
stronger than Hurricane Katrina destroyed homes and smashed
crops in Australia, driving prices to 30-year highs.
Tropical Cyclone Yasi ripped through northern Queensland, a
region growing a third of the country's cane, cutting output
potential in the area by about 50 percent, producers group
Canegrowers said Feb. 4. The storm, which the government says
may have wiped out at least A$500 million ($507 million) of
agricultural production, raised speculation that the world's
third-largest sugar exporter may struggle to match last year's
output that was the lowest in two decades.
"The whole house was shaking and vibrating," said Gerry
Borgna, 53, whose family has supplied cane to a mill at Tully,
about 140 kilometers (87 miles) south of Cairns, since the 1920s.
"We could hear things flying past and we thought it was part of
the house." At the farm, power lines were lying across the road,
a shed stood precariously and cane was pushed over. "To me,
this is a disaster," he said.
Raw sugar soared to 36.08 cents per pound on ICE Futures
U.S. in New York on Feb. 2, the highest level since 1980, as the
storm bore down on Queensland, and traded at 33.03 cents today.
"On a global basis we thought we would have a slim stock
build this year and it is likely that we are going to end up
with another deficit," Rabobank Australia Ltd. commodities
analyst Wayne Gordon said by phone yesterday.
Floods, Rain
Australian sugar output may be 3.5 million metric tons from
the June to December harvest this year, compared with 3.6
million tons from the previous crop, and down from expectations
of 4.2 million to 4.3 million tons, according to Rabobank.
Flooding and heavy rain before the cyclone reduced
estimates by about 500,000 tons and Yasi probably cut the
outlook by a further 300,000 tons, Gordon said.
Output may be 3.8 million tons next season, Australia & New
Zealand Banking Group Ltd. said on Feb. 3, while Commonwealth
Bank of Australia commodity strategist Luke Mathews said the
same day that the crop may be 3.6 million tons.
"It may well be that the production we saw last year might
be repeated," said John King, chief executive officer of Tully
Sugar Ltd., referring to national raw sugar output. "You would
like to think we can better that still, but a lot depends on the
growing conditions in the next months." The closely held
company is the target of a takeover bid from Bunge Ltd.
Weather Risks
World production may exceed demand by a "small" amount in
2011-2012, though the "fragile" balance will be vulnerable to
weather-related risks, C. Czarnikow Sugar Futures Ltd. said Jan.
31. The market will stay in deficit in 2010-2011, it said.
The International Sugar Organization in November lowered
its estimate for a global surplus to 1.3 million tons in 2010-
2011 from 2.7 million tons in August after drought and floods
damaged fields in Brazil, Russia, Pakistan and Australia.
"Based on what we're seeing in the meantime, there's every
reason that our surplus will remain very small," Lindsay Jolly,
a senior economist at the ISO, said in an interview in Geneva
Feb. 1. "It may disappear."
The destruction in Queensland from Yasi added to rain and
flooding that left 35 people dead and disrupted coal mining. The
nation, facing a bill that economists say may reach $20 billion
after two months of floods, will need to make budget cuts after
the cyclone exacerbated damage, Prime Minister Julia Gillard
said yesterday on Channel Ten's Meet the Press program.
Banana Crop
Yasi also slammed into a banana-growing region representing
about 85 percent of Australian production. Woolworths Ltd.
raised its prices for the fruit on Feb. 4 and warned the damage
would severely affect availability and prices in coming months.
"The region impacted by the cyclone contributes around A$1
billion of agricultural production annually, and initial reports
suggest at least half of that has been wiped out this year,
including around 80 percent of the state's banana crop,"
Treasurer Wayne Swan said yesterday.
Queensland Sugar Ltd., which handles more than 90 percent
of Australia's exports, said shipments from the 2010 crop were
2.2 million tons, the lowest level in more than two decades. The
cyclone and "extreme" rainfall since the middle of last year
were likely to keep exports to about the same level next season,
company Chief Executive Officer Neil Taylor said today.
Crop Reduction
The 2011 crop is likely to be "significantly reduced,"
Queensland Sugar said on Feb. 4. The national cane crush last
year was about 27 million tons compared with a usual level of
more than 32 million tons, said Brisbane-based Canegrowers in
December. The area north of Townsville typically crushes 10
million tons, the group said.
Tully may process about 1.4 million to 1.5 million tons of
cane this year, compared with 1.8 million tons last season when
the harvest was halted because of the weather, and down from a
pre-cyclone estimate for 2011 of 1.8 million to 2 million tons,
King said. Output would likely be curbed again in 2012 because
of the lingering effect on crops, he said.
"Even putting Cyclone Yasi to one side, it was going to
take a couple of years to rebound from the 2010 season," said
King, who left his shelter in the laundry of his Tully home
during the eye of the storm to see if the mill's smoke stacks
were still standing before "ferocious" winds returned.
'Blown Away'
The stacks survived the night, while two cooling towers
were on the ground, some sheeting was gone from the roof, a
garage was blown away and 35 houses owned by the company had
some form of damage, he said. The Red Cross is using a mill
meeting-hall to provide emergency assistance to residents, many
living in partly wrecked homes with no electricity.
"We have got off quite lightly from the mill point of
view," King said. The company has until the crushing season
starts in June to complete repairs.
Maryborough Sugar Factory Ltd. said in a statement last
week it expected a 5 percent to 10 percent reduction in its
total company estimate of 4 million tons of cane for the 2011
season. It has mills north of Tully in a joint venture with
Bundaberg Sugar Co., a unit of Brussels-based Finasucre.
Cane harvested this year will include so-called standover
material left from 2010 because of rain, cane planted last year
and re-growth crops harvested over several seasons. Borgna, who
estimated the cyclone may have cut his potential output by more
than 20 percent, said he was reluctant to lock in prices for
more of his cane by forward-selling.
Standover cane was "a mess," some of the crop may reach
half the height it should and root systems were damaged, he said.
"For this year I am about 40 percent priced," he said,
and he was cautious about pricing more because he didn't know
what crop he was going to get.
For Related News and Information:
Top Stories on Australia and New Zealand :TOPZ <GO>
Top agriculture stories: TOP AGR <GO>
Top Stories: TOP <GO>
--Editors: Jason Scott, James Poole
To contact the reporter on this story:
Wendy Pugh at +61-3-9228-8736 or
wpugh@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
James Poole at +65-6212-1551 or jpoole4@bloomberg.net
sexta-feira, 4 de fevereiro de 2011
Copper Rises to Record $10,015.25 a Metric Ton in London
Copper Rises to Record $10,015.25 a Metric Ton in London Trading
Copper for delivery in three months rose to a record $10,015.25 a metric ton by 2:06 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copper for delivery in three months rose to a record $10,015.25 a metric ton by 2:06 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(BN) Egyptians Mass After Prayers to Force Mubarak Out
By Ahmed A. Namatalla, Ola Galal and Vivian Salama
Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Egyptians poured out of Friday prayer
services and into Cairo's Tahrir Square in the tens of
thousands as last night's fighting gave way to a peaceful mass
protest on what demonstrators called the "day of departure"
for President Hosni Mubarak
The crowd sang the national anthem and chanted slogans
against Mubarak, repeatedly calling the president and his regime
"illegitimate." One held a sign reading: "Game Over." Many
brought their children in a sign of the changed mood after
Mubarak supporters attacked protesters, journalists and
observers yesterday, leaving several dead.
With U.S. President Barack Obama pushing for a faster
transition, Mubarak has replaced ministers and promised free
elections before stepping down in September. That hasn't
assuaged protesters who say his 30 years in power must end now
as unrest spreads to other Arab nations. U.S. and Egyptian
officials held talks on a proposed transitional regime led by
his deputy, Omar Suleiman, to include the banned Muslim
Brotherhood and other opposition groups, the New York Times
said. Germany's Angela Merkel said today may be "decisive."
'Turning Point'
Today "may mark the turning point to see whether this
uprising is going to continue or whether the regime will sort of
be able to wear it down," Michael Hudson, director of the
Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore,
told Bloomberg Television.
At Tahrir, protestors vowed not to back down. "Mubarak is
challenging the will of the people," said Nermeen Khafagui, an
Egyptologist at the national museum, who joined the crowd of
protesters. "We will not start negotiations until Mubarak cedes
power." There were similar anti-regime demonstrations in other
cities including Luxor and Alexandria.
Crude rose 0.3 percent to $90.84 a barrel at 12:20 p.m. in
London, extending its increase since Jan. 27 to almost 6
percent. Dubai's benchmark stock index fell 3.8 percent last
week. Egypt's stock market and banking system have been closed
for a week, shielding the Egyptian pound, which traded at about
5.86 per dollar on Jan. 27.
"Over the short term we expect the Egyptian pound to fall
by 20 percent, which would require the central bank to intervene
on several occasions," said John Sfakianakis, the Riyadh-based
chief economist at Banque Saudi Fransi, in a research note
today. He estimated the damage to Egypt's economy from the
crisis as at least $310 million a day and said a transition of
power will probably happen "sooner rather than later."
'Will Be Chaos'
The 82-year-old Egyptian president told ABC television late
yesterday that he feared "there will be chaos" if he abruptly
quits, and warned that the Muslim Brotherhood will come to
power. Obama's administration hasn't publicly repudiated its
longtime ally Mubarak, who has backed efforts to encourage Arab
acceptance of Israel and marginalize the Islamist Hamas movement
in the Gaza Strip. Egypt is one of the biggest recipients of
U.S. aid.
U.S. and Egyptian officials are discussing a plan under
which Suleiman, backed by Lieutenant General Sami Enan, chief of
the Egyptian armed forces, and Field Marshal Mohammed Tantawi,
the defense minister, would immediately begin a process of
constitutional reform, the New York Times reported today, citing
unnamed administration officials.
The U.S. Senate yesterday approved a resolution that calls
on Mubarak to immediately begin a "transfer of power to an
inclusive interim caretaker government" before Egypt holds
elections later this year.
'No Retribution'
Mohamed ElBaradei, the former United Nations nuclear chief
and a leader of the opposition, said Mubarak's opponents want
the president to leave with "dignity."
"We are not in any way interested in retribution," he
said at a press conference at his home in Cairo. "The Egyptian
people by their nature are not bloodthirsty."
Journalists and charity workers were targeted by security
forces after clashes broke out yesterday, prompting Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton to condemn the actions as "unacceptable
under any circumstances."
Several aid workers were detained in raids on the Hisham
Mubarak Law Center, an Egyptian law firm based in Cairo and
Aswan, including one working for Amnesty International and
another for Human Rights Watch. Egypt has also sought to curb
the flow of information during the crisis, cutting off access to
the Internet and mobile phone services.
At least nine people were killed in the violence over the
past 48 hours, the International Committee of the Red Cross said
today, citing figures from the Egyptian Ministry of Health. The
ICRC estimates that as many as 2,000 people have been injured
over the past few days.
'Watching World'
The Suez Canal, which carries about 8 percent of global
maritime trade, and the country's main ports were operating
normally today, Egyptian authorities said.
In Brussels, German Chancellor Angela Merkel told reporters
before a European Union summit that today's demonstrations will
be "decisive" and called for an "orderly" transition in
Egypt. U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron said any more violence
against protesters will mean "Egypt and its regime would lose
any remaining credibility or support it has in the eyes of the
watching world."
Other Arab countries gripped by the spreading instability
in the Middle East include Yemen, where police used tear gas
against anti-government protests yesterday, and Jordan, which
sacked its government this week. Algeria's President Abdelaziz
Bouteflika said yesterday that a 19-year-old state of emergency
will be lifted "in the very near future." The protests began
in Tunisia, where President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was forced
from office last month after two decades in power.
For Related News and Information:
Top Stories: TOP <GO>
For Stories on Egypt: NI EGYPT BN <GO>
Egyptian politics: TNI EGYPT POL <GO>
Top political stories: GTOP <GO>
Top Middle East news: TOP GULF <GO>
--With assistance from Mahmoud Kassem, Abdel Latif Wahba and
Maram Mazen in Cairo, Massoud A Derhally in Beirut, and Viola
Gienger, Nicole Gaouette, Jeff Bliss and Roger Runningen in
Washington. Editors: Ben Holland, John Fraher.
To contact the reporters on this story:
Ahmed A Namatalla in Cairo at +202-2-461-8584 or
anamatalla@bloomberg.net;
Vivian Salama in Dubai at +971-2-401-2541 or
vsalama@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Mark Silva at +1-202-624-4312 or msilva34@bloomberg.net
Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Egyptians poured out of Friday prayer
services and into Cairo's Tahrir Square in the tens of
thousands as last night's fighting gave way to a peaceful mass
protest on what demonstrators called the "day of departure"
for President Hosni Mubarak
The crowd sang the national anthem and chanted slogans
against Mubarak, repeatedly calling the president and his regime
"illegitimate." One held a sign reading: "Game Over." Many
brought their children in a sign of the changed mood after
Mubarak supporters attacked protesters, journalists and
observers yesterday, leaving several dead.
With U.S. President Barack Obama pushing for a faster
transition, Mubarak has replaced ministers and promised free
elections before stepping down in September. That hasn't
assuaged protesters who say his 30 years in power must end now
as unrest spreads to other Arab nations. U.S. and Egyptian
officials held talks on a proposed transitional regime led by
his deputy, Omar Suleiman, to include the banned Muslim
Brotherhood and other opposition groups, the New York Times
said. Germany's Angela Merkel said today may be "decisive."
'Turning Point'
Today "may mark the turning point to see whether this
uprising is going to continue or whether the regime will sort of
be able to wear it down," Michael Hudson, director of the
Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore,
told Bloomberg Television.
At Tahrir, protestors vowed not to back down. "Mubarak is
challenging the will of the people," said Nermeen Khafagui, an
Egyptologist at the national museum, who joined the crowd of
protesters. "We will not start negotiations until Mubarak cedes
power." There were similar anti-regime demonstrations in other
cities including Luxor and Alexandria.
Crude rose 0.3 percent to $90.84 a barrel at 12:20 p.m. in
London, extending its increase since Jan. 27 to almost 6
percent. Dubai's benchmark stock index fell 3.8 percent last
week. Egypt's stock market and banking system have been closed
for a week, shielding the Egyptian pound, which traded at about
5.86 per dollar on Jan. 27.
"Over the short term we expect the Egyptian pound to fall
by 20 percent, which would require the central bank to intervene
on several occasions," said John Sfakianakis, the Riyadh-based
chief economist at Banque Saudi Fransi, in a research note
today. He estimated the damage to Egypt's economy from the
crisis as at least $310 million a day and said a transition of
power will probably happen "sooner rather than later."
'Will Be Chaos'
The 82-year-old Egyptian president told ABC television late
yesterday that he feared "there will be chaos" if he abruptly
quits, and warned that the Muslim Brotherhood will come to
power. Obama's administration hasn't publicly repudiated its
longtime ally Mubarak, who has backed efforts to encourage Arab
acceptance of Israel and marginalize the Islamist Hamas movement
in the Gaza Strip. Egypt is one of the biggest recipients of
U.S. aid.
U.S. and Egyptian officials are discussing a plan under
which Suleiman, backed by Lieutenant General Sami Enan, chief of
the Egyptian armed forces, and Field Marshal Mohammed Tantawi,
the defense minister, would immediately begin a process of
constitutional reform, the New York Times reported today, citing
unnamed administration officials.
The U.S. Senate yesterday approved a resolution that calls
on Mubarak to immediately begin a "transfer of power to an
inclusive interim caretaker government" before Egypt holds
elections later this year.
'No Retribution'
Mohamed ElBaradei, the former United Nations nuclear chief
and a leader of the opposition, said Mubarak's opponents want
the president to leave with "dignity."
"We are not in any way interested in retribution," he
said at a press conference at his home in Cairo. "The Egyptian
people by their nature are not bloodthirsty."
Journalists and charity workers were targeted by security
forces after clashes broke out yesterday, prompting Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton to condemn the actions as "unacceptable
under any circumstances."
Several aid workers were detained in raids on the Hisham
Mubarak Law Center, an Egyptian law firm based in Cairo and
Aswan, including one working for Amnesty International and
another for Human Rights Watch. Egypt has also sought to curb
the flow of information during the crisis, cutting off access to
the Internet and mobile phone services.
At least nine people were killed in the violence over the
past 48 hours, the International Committee of the Red Cross said
today, citing figures from the Egyptian Ministry of Health. The
ICRC estimates that as many as 2,000 people have been injured
over the past few days.
'Watching World'
The Suez Canal, which carries about 8 percent of global
maritime trade, and the country's main ports were operating
normally today, Egyptian authorities said.
In Brussels, German Chancellor Angela Merkel told reporters
before a European Union summit that today's demonstrations will
be "decisive" and called for an "orderly" transition in
Egypt. U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron said any more violence
against protesters will mean "Egypt and its regime would lose
any remaining credibility or support it has in the eyes of the
watching world."
Other Arab countries gripped by the spreading instability
in the Middle East include Yemen, where police used tear gas
against anti-government protests yesterday, and Jordan, which
sacked its government this week. Algeria's President Abdelaziz
Bouteflika said yesterday that a 19-year-old state of emergency
will be lifted "in the very near future." The protests began
in Tunisia, where President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was forced
from office last month after two decades in power.
For Related News and Information:
Top Stories: TOP <GO>
For Stories on Egypt: NI EGYPT BN <GO>
Egyptian politics: TNI EGYPT POL <GO>
Top political stories: GTOP <GO>
Top Middle East news: TOP GULF <GO>
--With assistance from Mahmoud Kassem, Abdel Latif Wahba and
Maram Mazen in Cairo, Massoud A Derhally in Beirut, and Viola
Gienger, Nicole Gaouette, Jeff Bliss and Roger Runningen in
Washington. Editors: Ben Holland, John Fraher.
To contact the reporters on this story:
Ahmed A Namatalla in Cairo at +202-2-461-8584 or
anamatalla@bloomberg.net;
Vivian Salama in Dubai at +971-2-401-2541 or
vsalama@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Mark Silva at +1-202-624-4312 or msilva34@bloomberg.net
quarta-feira, 2 de fevereiro de 2011
White Sugar Climbs to $840, Highest Since at Least 1989
YES I BELIEVE IN PAPAI NOEL*
----- Original Message -----
From: NLRT ALERT (BLOOMBERG/ 731 LEXIN)
At: 2/02 10:04:56
White Sugar Climbs to $840, Highest Since at Least January 1989
White sugar futures climbed to $840 a metric ton on NYSE Liffe by 12:03 p.m. in London, the highest price since at least January 1989.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The attached story matches the criteria for the News Alert named "COMMODITIES (SALT)". Type {97 <GO>} to view the story on wire BN (BLOOMBERG News).
This story was classified to the following categories:
Topics
*BUSINESS Business News
*CMDHOT Commodities Hot Stories
*CMDMARKET Commodities Markets
*FINNEWS Fin'l News Nupes
*MARKETS Markets
(18 Total)
* - Indicates highly relevant categories.
ADDS
(To locate storm, see BMAP 62530)
By Robert Fenner
Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Tropical Cyclone Yasi is starting to cross the Australian Coast, the Bureau of Meteorology said on its website. Wind gusts of up to 290 kilometers an hour are expected from the category 5 storm, it said.
----- Original Message -----
From: NLRT ALERT (BLOOMBERG/ 731 LEXIN)
At: 2/02 10:04:56
White Sugar Climbs to $840, Highest Since at Least January 1989
White sugar futures climbed to $840 a metric ton on NYSE Liffe by 12:03 p.m. in London, the highest price since at least January 1989.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The attached story matches the criteria for the News Alert named "COMMODITIES (SALT)". Type {97 <GO>} to view the story on wire BN (BLOOMBERG News).
This story was classified to the following categories:
Topics
*BUSINESS Business News
*CMDHOT Commodities Hot Stories
*CMDMARKET Commodities Markets
*FINNEWS Fin'l News Nupes
*MARKETS Markets
(18 Total)
* - Indicates highly relevant categories.
ADDS
(To locate storm, see BMAP 62530
By Robert Fenner
Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Tropical Cyclone Yasi is starting to cross the Australian Coast, the Bureau of Meteorology said on its website. Wind gusts of up to 290 kilometers an hour are expected from the category 5 storm, it said.
terça-feira, 1 de fevereiro de 2011
(BN) Bovespa Index Futures Gain on Cheapest Valuations in Two Years
Bovespa Index Futures Gain on Cheapest Valuations in Two Years
2011-02-01 12:37:13.638 GMT
By Alexander Ragir
Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Bovespa stock-index futures gained,
indicating the gauge may rebound from its lowest level in five
months, as commodities advanced and stock valuations fell to
their cheapest level in more than two years.
Banco Panamericano SA may be active after Brazilian
billionaire Andre Esteves agreed to buy a controlling stake in
the Sao Paulo-based lender that is being investigated for
accounting fraud. Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state-
controlled oil company, and Vale SA, the world's biggest iron
ore producer, gained in U.S. trading.
Bovespa futures rose 0.6 percent to 67,115 at 7:24 a.m. New
York time. The gauge fell yesterday, capping the biggest monthly
decline since November, as airlines sank and investors
speculated upcoming share sales will sap demand for Brazilian
equities. The Bovespa closed at its lowest level since Sept. 8,
2010. The real rose 0.1 percent to 1.6650 per dollar today.
Copper rose to records in London and New York while
aluminum and nickel climbed to two-year highs as expanding
manufacturing in China added to signs of growth in industrial-
metals demand. A Chinese purchasing managers index compiled by
HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics rose to 54.5 last month
from 54.4.
January Decline
The Bovespa fell 3.9 percent last month, pushing its
average stock price to 10.7 times 2011 estimated earnings, the
lowest since December 2008, according to weekly data compiled by
Bloomberg. That compares to a ratio of 13 for the Shanghai
Composite Index, 7.3 for Russia's Micex, and 17.3 for India's
Sensex.
BTG said in a statement late yesterday it will pay 450
million reais ($270 million) for 51 percent of Panamericano's
voting shares and place partner Jose Luiz Acar Pedro as the new
chief executive officer. Silvio Santos, Panamericano's founder
whose holding took out a 2.5 billion real-loan from the nation's
deposit insurance fund on Nov. 9 to rescue the bank, said he
sold to BTG on expectations it will help the lender grow.
"Now I'm free, the only company sold was the bank,"
Santos, the 80-year-old host of a Sunday variety show, said
after meeting with officials yesterday at BTG headquarters in
Sao Paulo.
BTG
After the purchase, BTG will own 37.6 percent of
Panamericano's total capital while the state-owned savings bank,
Caixa Economica Federal, which has been running the lender since
the bailout, will have 36.6 percent, BTG said. On the day the
transaction is completed, BTG will offer to buy out
Panamericano's minority shareholders for 4.89 reais a share, or
15 percent more than yesterday's closing price.
Cia. Energetica de Sao Paulo, the state-controlled power
company known as Cesp, may be active after it named Vicente K.
Okazaki as chief financial officer, according to a regulatory
filing.
MMX Mineracao e Metalicos SA, the iron-ore company
controlled by billionaire Eike Batista, may move after it named
Guilherme Frederico Escalhao its chief financial officer,
according to a regulatory filing.
Vale SA gained in U.S. trading after the world's biggest
iron-ore exporter proposed dividends of at least $4 billion for
shareholders for 2011, equal to $0.766536226 a share, according
to a regulatory filing.
For Related News and Information:
Top stories from Latin America: TOPL <GO>
Top stories in emerging markets: TOP EM <GO>
Stories on Latin American stocks: TNI LATAM STK <GO>
World equity index futures: WEIF <GO>
Bovespa market map: IBOV <Index> IMAP <GO>
Brazilian stock movers: TNI BZS MOV <GO>
--Editor: Glenn J. Kalinoski
To contact the reporter on this story:
Alexander Ragir in Rio de Janeiro at +55-21-2125-2533 or
aragir@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
David Papadopoulos at +1-212-617-5105 or
papadopoulos@bloomberg.net
2011-02-01 12:37:13.638 GMT
By Alexander Ragir
Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Bovespa stock-index futures gained,
indicating the gauge may rebound from its lowest level in five
months, as commodities advanced and stock valuations fell to
their cheapest level in more than two years.
Banco Panamericano SA may be active after Brazilian
billionaire Andre Esteves agreed to buy a controlling stake in
the Sao Paulo-based lender that is being investigated for
accounting fraud. Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state-
controlled oil company, and Vale SA, the world's biggest iron
ore producer, gained in U.S. trading.
Bovespa futures rose 0.6 percent to 67,115 at 7:24 a.m. New
York time. The gauge fell yesterday, capping the biggest monthly
decline since November, as airlines sank and investors
speculated upcoming share sales will sap demand for Brazilian
equities. The Bovespa closed at its lowest level since Sept. 8,
2010. The real rose 0.1 percent to 1.6650 per dollar today.
Copper rose to records in London and New York while
aluminum and nickel climbed to two-year highs as expanding
manufacturing in China added to signs of growth in industrial-
metals demand. A Chinese purchasing managers index compiled by
HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics rose to 54.5 last month
from 54.4.
January Decline
The Bovespa fell 3.9 percent last month, pushing its
average stock price to 10.7 times 2011 estimated earnings, the
lowest since December 2008, according to weekly data compiled by
Bloomberg. That compares to a ratio of 13 for the Shanghai
Composite Index, 7.3 for Russia's Micex, and 17.3 for India's
Sensex.
BTG said in a statement late yesterday it will pay 450
million reais ($270 million) for 51 percent of Panamericano's
voting shares and place partner Jose Luiz Acar Pedro as the new
chief executive officer. Silvio Santos, Panamericano's founder
whose holding took out a 2.5 billion real-loan from the nation's
deposit insurance fund on Nov. 9 to rescue the bank, said he
sold to BTG on expectations it will help the lender grow.
"Now I'm free, the only company sold was the bank,"
Santos, the 80-year-old host of a Sunday variety show, said
after meeting with officials yesterday at BTG headquarters in
Sao Paulo.
BTG
After the purchase, BTG will own 37.6 percent of
Panamericano's total capital while the state-owned savings bank,
Caixa Economica Federal, which has been running the lender since
the bailout, will have 36.6 percent, BTG said. On the day the
transaction is completed, BTG will offer to buy out
Panamericano's minority shareholders for 4.89 reais a share, or
15 percent more than yesterday's closing price.
Cia. Energetica de Sao Paulo, the state-controlled power
company known as Cesp, may be active after it named Vicente K.
Okazaki as chief financial officer, according to a regulatory
filing.
MMX Mineracao e Metalicos SA, the iron-ore company
controlled by billionaire Eike Batista, may move after it named
Guilherme Frederico Escalhao its chief financial officer,
according to a regulatory filing.
Vale SA gained in U.S. trading after the world's biggest
iron-ore exporter proposed dividends of at least $4 billion for
shareholders for 2011, equal to $0.766536226 a share, according
to a regulatory filing.
For Related News and Information:
Top stories from Latin America: TOPL <GO>
Top stories in emerging markets: TOP EM <GO>
Stories on Latin American stocks: TNI LATAM STK <GO>
World equity index futures: WEIF <GO>
Bovespa market map: IBOV <Index> IMAP <GO>
Brazilian stock movers: TNI BZS MOV <GO>
--Editor: Glenn J. Kalinoski
To contact the reporter on this story:
Alexander Ragir in Rio de Janeiro at +55-21-2125-2533 or
aragir@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
David Papadopoulos at +1-212-617-5105 or
papadopoulos@bloomberg.net
segunda-feira, 31 de janeiro de 2011
(BN) Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Increases to 68.8 in January
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Increases to 68.8 in January
2011-01-31 16:10:26.172 GMT
By Alex Kowalski
Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Businesses in the U.S. expanded in
January at the fastest pace since July 1988, indicating the
world's largest economy has momentum at the start of the year.
The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said today
its business barometer rose this month to 68.8 from 66.8 in
December. Figures greater than 50 signal expansion, and
economists projected the gauge would slip to 64.5, based on the
median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.
Orders, production and employment increased as
manufacturers such as Caterpillar Inc. benefited from a pickup
in consumer purchases and stronger export markets in emerging
economies such as China. Consumer purchases in the final three
months of 2010 were the strongest in more than four years,
figures last week showed.
"This fortifies the stability of the recovery," said
Maxwell Clarke, chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal in New York.
"You definitely see traction from manufacturing going
forward."
Estimates from 41 economists for the Chicago purchasers'
index ranged from 60 to 71.3, according to the Bloomberg survey.
Data today from the Commerce Department showed Americans'
spending rose more than forecast in December. Household
purchases increased 0.7 percent, while incomes gained 0.4
percent for a second month, the figures showed.
Stocks held gains after the reports and Treasuries fell.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 0.5 percent to 1,282.74 at
11:07 a.m. in New York. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note
increased to 3.35 percent from 3.32 percent late on Jan. 28.
Orders, Employment
The Chicago group's production gauge rose to 73.7 from
December's reading of 72.2. The gauge of new orders increased to
75.7, the highest since December 1983, from 71.3. The employment
measure rose to 64.1, the strongest since May 1984, from 58.4
the prior month.
Economists watch the Chicago index and other regional
manufacturing reports for an early reading on the outlook
nationally. The Chicago group says its membership includes both
manufacturers and service providers, making the gauge of measure
of overall growth. Its members have operations across the U.S.
and abroad.
Other measures of regional manufacturing have shown
strength in January. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York on
Jan. 18 said manufacturing expanded in that region this month,
and the Philadelphia Fed said two days later that factories grew
for a fourth month.
Auto Sales
Automakers are seeing sales pick up. Car purchases in
December rose to a 12.53 million unit annual pace, the highest
since August 2009, from 12.3 million in November, industry data
showed this month.
The ISM's monthly national factory index, due tomorrow, was
probably little changed at 58 in January after 58.5 the prior
month. A reading above 50 signals expansion.
A pickup in consumer demand, which accounts for about 70
percent of the U.S. economy, could add to gains in
manufacturing. The Commerce Department reported last week that
household purchases rose at a 4.4 percent pace in the fourth
quarter, the fastest in more than four years, while the economy
grew at a 3.2 percent rate.
Consumers may further ramp up spending as they benefit from
an $858 billion bill extending all Bush-era tax cuts for two
years. The legislation also extended the window for expanded
unemployment insurance benefits through 2011, trimmed payrolls
taxes and included accelerated tax depreciation for equipment
purchases.
The manufacturing industry, which accounts for about 11
percent of the economy, has been at the forefront of the
economic recovery that began in 2009.
Caterpillar Profit
Caterpillar, the world's largest maker of construction
equipment, posted fourth-quarter profit that topped analysts'
estimates as sales advanced in China, Australia and Latin
America. Revenue climbed 62 percent to $12.8 billion from $7.9
billion a year earlier, the company said last week.
In 2011, sales will exceed $50 billion, compared with
$42.59 billion in 2010, according to the company.
"There's quite a bit of pent-up demand there yet to
come," in North America, Ed Rapp, chief financial officer of
the Peoria, Illinois-based company, said last week during a
conference call. "The tailwinds come as we get more robust
growth."
For Related News and Information:
For U.S. economy stories: NI USECO <GO>
For U.S. manufacturing stories: TNI US MAC <GO>
For stories on manufacturing and trade: TNI TRD MAC <GO>
Factory Orders and Durable Goods reports: FODG <GO>
Stories on GDP: GDP CQOQ <Index> CN <GO>
--Editors: Vince Golle, Carlos Torres
To contact the reporters on this story:
Alexander Kowalski in Washington at +1-202-654-7372 or
akowalski13@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Christopher Wellisz at +1-202-624-1862 or
cwellisz@bloomberg.net.
2011-01-31 16:10:26.172 GMT
By Alex Kowalski
Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Businesses in the U.S. expanded in
January at the fastest pace since July 1988, indicating the
world's largest economy has momentum at the start of the year.
The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said today
its business barometer rose this month to 68.8 from 66.8 in
December. Figures greater than 50 signal expansion, and
economists projected the gauge would slip to 64.5, based on the
median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.
Orders, production and employment increased as
manufacturers such as Caterpillar Inc. benefited from a pickup
in consumer purchases and stronger export markets in emerging
economies such as China. Consumer purchases in the final three
months of 2010 were the strongest in more than four years,
figures last week showed.
"This fortifies the stability of the recovery," said
Maxwell Clarke, chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal in New York.
"You definitely see traction from manufacturing going
forward."
Estimates from 41 economists for the Chicago purchasers'
index ranged from 60 to 71.3, according to the Bloomberg survey.
Data today from the Commerce Department showed Americans'
spending rose more than forecast in December. Household
purchases increased 0.7 percent, while incomes gained 0.4
percent for a second month, the figures showed.
Stocks held gains after the reports and Treasuries fell.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 0.5 percent to 1,282.74 at
11:07 a.m. in New York. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note
increased to 3.35 percent from 3.32 percent late on Jan. 28.
Orders, Employment
The Chicago group's production gauge rose to 73.7 from
December's reading of 72.2. The gauge of new orders increased to
75.7, the highest since December 1983, from 71.3. The employment
measure rose to 64.1, the strongest since May 1984, from 58.4
the prior month.
Economists watch the Chicago index and other regional
manufacturing reports for an early reading on the outlook
nationally. The Chicago group says its membership includes both
manufacturers and service providers, making the gauge of measure
of overall growth. Its members have operations across the U.S.
and abroad.
Other measures of regional manufacturing have shown
strength in January. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York on
Jan. 18 said manufacturing expanded in that region this month,
and the Philadelphia Fed said two days later that factories grew
for a fourth month.
Auto Sales
Automakers are seeing sales pick up. Car purchases in
December rose to a 12.53 million unit annual pace, the highest
since August 2009, from 12.3 million in November, industry data
showed this month.
The ISM's monthly national factory index, due tomorrow, was
probably little changed at 58 in January after 58.5 the prior
month. A reading above 50 signals expansion.
A pickup in consumer demand, which accounts for about 70
percent of the U.S. economy, could add to gains in
manufacturing. The Commerce Department reported last week that
household purchases rose at a 4.4 percent pace in the fourth
quarter, the fastest in more than four years, while the economy
grew at a 3.2 percent rate.
Consumers may further ramp up spending as they benefit from
an $858 billion bill extending all Bush-era tax cuts for two
years. The legislation also extended the window for expanded
unemployment insurance benefits through 2011, trimmed payrolls
taxes and included accelerated tax depreciation for equipment
purchases.
The manufacturing industry, which accounts for about 11
percent of the economy, has been at the forefront of the
economic recovery that began in 2009.
Caterpillar Profit
Caterpillar, the world's largest maker of construction
equipment, posted fourth-quarter profit that topped analysts'
estimates as sales advanced in China, Australia and Latin
America. Revenue climbed 62 percent to $12.8 billion from $7.9
billion a year earlier, the company said last week.
In 2011, sales will exceed $50 billion, compared with
$42.59 billion in 2010, according to the company.
"There's quite a bit of pent-up demand there yet to
come," in North America, Ed Rapp, chief financial officer of
the Peoria, Illinois-based company, said last week during a
conference call. "The tailwinds come as we get more robust
growth."
For Related News and Information:
For U.S. economy stories: NI USECO <GO>
For U.S. manufacturing stories: TNI US MAC <GO>
For stories on manufacturing and trade: TNI TRD MAC <GO>
Factory Orders and Durable Goods reports: FODG <GO>
Stories on GDP: GDP CQOQ <Index> CN <GO>
--Editors: Vince Golle, Carlos Torres
To contact the reporters on this story:
Alexander Kowalski in Washington at +1-202-654-7372 or
akowalski13@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Christopher Wellisz at +1-202-624-1862 or
cwellisz@bloomberg.net.
quinta-feira, 27 de janeiro de 2011
Folha São Paulo: FMI vê deterioração 'brusca' das contas fiscais do Brasil
Folha São Paulo: FMI vê deterioração 'brusca' das contas fiscais do Brasil
2011-01-27 17:15:46.547 GMT
http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/bbc/866790-fmi-ve-deterioracao-brusca-das-contas-fiscais-do-brasil.shtml
PageExcerpt:
O FMI (Fundo Monetário Internacional) divulgou nesta quinta-feira, em Washington, um relatório em que afirma que a deterioração nas contas fiscais do Brasil "é particularmente brusca" e vai impedir que se alcance a meta de superavit primário. ...
2011-01-27 17:15:46.547 GMT
http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/bbc/866790-fmi-ve-deterioracao-brusca-das-contas-fiscais-do-brasil.shtml
PageExcerpt:
O FMI (Fundo Monetário Internacional) divulgou nesta quinta-feira, em Washington, um relatório em que afirma que a deterioração nas contas fiscais do Brasil "é particularmente brusca" e vai impedir que se alcance a meta de superavit primário. ...
segunda-feira, 24 de janeiro de 2011
(BN) Super-Cycle Leaves No Economy Behind as Davos Shifts to Growth
Super-Cycle Leaves No Economy Behind as Davos Shifts to Growth
2011-01-23 23:01:01.0 GMT
By Simon Kennedy
Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- For only the third time since the
Industrial Revolution, the world may be entering a long-term
growth cycle that will lift all economies simultaneously,
driving bond yields and commodity prices higher.
The depth and scope of the expansion will be a focus for
discussion at this week's annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Evidence of a broadening global
recovery will enable U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F.
Geithner, investor George Soros and 2,500 political, business
and academic leaders to shift their emphasis away from crisis-
fighting.
With the economic and investment outlooks "much better"
than in recent years, "people are talking about how to get back
to business as normal and what comes next," said Jitesh Gadhia,
a delegate to the conference and the London-based senior
managing director at Blackstone Group LP, which runs the world's
largest buyout fund.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP and
London's Standard Chartered Bank are among the financial
companies sending executives to the meeting. Their economists
predict a growth spurt in coming decades led by emerging nations
that will be strong enough to boost developed countries.
Global gross domestic product will swell to $143 trillion
by 2030, allowing for inflation and market-exchange rates, from
$62 trillion in 2010, with China and other emerging markets
accounting for about two thirds of the rise, estimates Gerard
Lyons, chief economist and group head of global research in
London for Standard Chartered, which generates most of its
earnings from Asia.
Investment, Urbanization
Lyons and his colleagues predict a "super-cycle" of
historically high growth that will last at least a generation
and will be led by booming trade, investment and urbanization,
according to a report published in November. He reckons such a
cycle has occurred only twice since the end of the 18th century:
the four decades before World War I and the three following
World War II. He's betting the new phase will contribute to a
reversal in the three-decade decline for U.S. bond yields after
10-year Treasury notes lost an average 40 basis points a year
since the early 1980s.
Richard Dobbs, a director of the research division at New
York-based McKinsey & Co., will use the Davos meeting to
highlight a study by the international consulting firm that sees
an imminent end to cheap capital. The causes are a building
bonanza in developing economies and aging populations who are
draining their savings, according to the report, which was
released Dec. 9.
Signs of Momentum
The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yielded 3.41 percent in New
York on Jan. 21, according to BGCantor Market Data, compared
with 15.8 percent in 1981 and a record low of 2.04 percent in
December 2008. Signs of momentum in the U.S. economy have helped
increase the yield from about 2.9 percent at the start of
December.
"It's a topic capturing the attention of people who want
to think beyond the crisis," said Seoul-based Dobbs.
While Goldman Sachs Asset Management Chairman Jim O'Neill
has found fame for promoting the "BRIC" economies of Brazil,
Russia, India and China, he says their rise has positive impact
beyond their borders, with Chinese imports totaling about $400
billion, almost the equivalent of South Africa's economy last
year. That should attract investors to rich-nation companies
with links to these markets, and the resurgence in the U.S.
economy has prompted O'Neill to predict higher U.S. bond yields
in 2011. He didn't provide a specific forecast.
'Out of Date'
"World-trend economic growth is being lifted," said
London-based O'Neill, who helps manage $840 billion. "The
notion that BRICs benefit at the expense of others is
increasingly out of date."
Investors should buy copper, coal and oil to take advantage
of the growth of cities in emerging markets, according to
Standard Chartered, which says the Chinese yuan, Indian rupee
and Korean won will appreciate on strengthening domestic growth.
Developed nations also will benefit as their emerging-
market counterparts invest more abroad, hire more of their
workers and rely on their expertise in areas such as financial
services, said Lyons, who will be at Davos. He predicts both the
U.S. and European Union will enjoy an average trend growth of
2.5 percent through 2030, compared with the 1.9 percent and 1.7
percent he forecasts for this year.
"It's a win-win situation," said Lyons, who concedes
growth won't always be strong and continuous during the entire
period.
Increasing Integration
The increasing integration of China and other developing
economies will boost commerce and investment worldwide, agrees
Edward Prescott, a senior monetary adviser to the Federal
Reserve Bank of Minneapolis who shared the 2004 Nobel Prize for
analysis of business cycles and economic policy.
Prescott points to South Carolina, which has benefited from
new factories opened by Chinese companies such as appliance
maker Haier Group. The International Monetary Fund projects this
year will be the first in which Chinese foreign investment
outpaces inward flows.
"The whole world's going to be rich by the end of this
century," Prescott said.
Such euphoria may be muted in Davos, given the European
sovereign-debt crisis, fears of a real-estate bubble in China
and mounting public-debt burdens, said Nariman Behravesh, chief
economist at consultants IHS in Lexington, Massachusetts, who is
attending the meeting.
"There's going to be more optimism but still some
worries," he said.
High Unemployment
Talk of a super-cycle gets little support from Joseph
Stiglitz, a Davos veteran and 2001 Nobel laureate. He contends
that globalization and free trade may be stymied by unemployment
in rich nations and the risk that more of these countries' jobs
will be lost abroad. The U.S. jobless rate has remained above 9
percent since May 2009.
"Standard Chartered works mostly in developing markets,
and that shapes its world view," said Stiglitz, an economics
professor at Columbia University in New York. "If you work in
emerging markets, you feel the energy. If you are in the U.S. or
Europe, you see the numbers and it's hard not to feel
depressed."
The difference reflects a "shift in the center of gravity
in the world economy, in which the West is struggling to keep up
with turbo-charged," emerging markets, says Stephen King, chief
global economist in London at HSBC Holdings Plc and a former
U.K. Treasury official. He will outline in Davos what he calls
the next phase of globalization: increased trade among emerging
countries.
Rising Global Output
His team calculated this month that by 2050, global output
will have trebled and average annual growth will accelerate
toward 3 percent from 2 percent in the last decade, with
emerging markets contributing twice as much to the expansion as
the developed world.
Ian Bremmer, president and founder of the Eurasia Group, a
political-risk consulting company in New York, is more downbeat
as he heads to the Swiss ski resort. He predicts what he calls a
"G-Zero" era in which no country has the political or economic
leverage to dominate the international agenda and all nations
focus on their own priorities. That will reduce economic
efficiency and prompt trade conflicts, he said.
Volatility, Uncertainty
The subsequent volatility and uncertainty mean U.S. assets
will prove the "comparative safest bet" and the price of gold
will stay high, Bremmer said, after touching a record $1,432.50
an ounce on Dec. 7. Fixed-income securities still may suffer as
nations impose capital controls, which Brazil and South Korea
have done lately, while companies will continue saving rather
than spending, he predicted.
"Corporations will keep trillions of dollars on the
sidelines," he said Jan. 5 on "Bloomberg Surveillance" with
Ken Prewitt and Tom Keene. "They're just very uncertain about
where the world is heading."
John Hawksworth, the London-based head of macroeconomics at
PricewaterhouseCoopers, is confident a so-called zero-sum world
isn't in the cards. His own attempt to see into the future this
month generated a projection that a bloc of seven leading
emerging markets, including India and China, will be 64 percent
larger than the current Group of Seven by 2050 at market-
exchange rates, compared with 36 percent smaller today.
Even so, average income levels in the G-7 countries will
rise in absolute terms as new market opportunities open up for
their businesses, and consumers will benefit from lower-cost
imports, predicts Hawksworth, who has served as a consultant to
the World Bank and whose company will release its annual survey
of executives in Davos tomorrow.
"There is a shift in economic power from West to East, but
the West can still do well," Lyons said.
--With assistance from Helene Fouquet and Greg Viscusi in Paris,
David Lynch in Washington, and Michael McKee and Tom Keene in
New York. Editors: Melinda Grenier, Daniel Moss.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Simon Kennedy in Zurich at +44-20-7330-7086 or
skennedy4@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Craig Stirling at +44-20-7673-2841 or
cstirling1@bloomberg.net
2011-01-23 23:01:01.0 GMT
By Simon Kennedy
Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- For only the third time since the
Industrial Revolution, the world may be entering a long-term
growth cycle that will lift all economies simultaneously,
driving bond yields and commodity prices higher.
The depth and scope of the expansion will be a focus for
discussion at this week's annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Evidence of a broadening global
recovery will enable U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F.
Geithner, investor George Soros and 2,500 political, business
and academic leaders to shift their emphasis away from crisis-
fighting.
With the economic and investment outlooks "much better"
than in recent years, "people are talking about how to get back
to business as normal and what comes next," said Jitesh Gadhia,
a delegate to the conference and the London-based senior
managing director at Blackstone Group LP, which runs the world's
largest buyout fund.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP and
London's Standard Chartered Bank are among the financial
companies sending executives to the meeting. Their economists
predict a growth spurt in coming decades led by emerging nations
that will be strong enough to boost developed countries.
Global gross domestic product will swell to $143 trillion
by 2030, allowing for inflation and market-exchange rates, from
$62 trillion in 2010, with China and other emerging markets
accounting for about two thirds of the rise, estimates Gerard
Lyons, chief economist and group head of global research in
London for Standard Chartered, which generates most of its
earnings from Asia.
Investment, Urbanization
Lyons and his colleagues predict a "super-cycle" of
historically high growth that will last at least a generation
and will be led by booming trade, investment and urbanization,
according to a report published in November. He reckons such a
cycle has occurred only twice since the end of the 18th century:
the four decades before World War I and the three following
World War II. He's betting the new phase will contribute to a
reversal in the three-decade decline for U.S. bond yields after
10-year Treasury notes lost an average 40 basis points a year
since the early 1980s.
Richard Dobbs, a director of the research division at New
York-based McKinsey & Co., will use the Davos meeting to
highlight a study by the international consulting firm that sees
an imminent end to cheap capital. The causes are a building
bonanza in developing economies and aging populations who are
draining their savings, according to the report, which was
released Dec. 9.
Signs of Momentum
The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yielded 3.41 percent in New
York on Jan. 21, according to BGCantor Market Data, compared
with 15.8 percent in 1981 and a record low of 2.04 percent in
December 2008. Signs of momentum in the U.S. economy have helped
increase the yield from about 2.9 percent at the start of
December.
"It's a topic capturing the attention of people who want
to think beyond the crisis," said Seoul-based Dobbs.
While Goldman Sachs Asset Management Chairman Jim O'Neill
has found fame for promoting the "BRIC" economies of Brazil,
Russia, India and China, he says their rise has positive impact
beyond their borders, with Chinese imports totaling about $400
billion, almost the equivalent of South Africa's economy last
year. That should attract investors to rich-nation companies
with links to these markets, and the resurgence in the U.S.
economy has prompted O'Neill to predict higher U.S. bond yields
in 2011. He didn't provide a specific forecast.
'Out of Date'
"World-trend economic growth is being lifted," said
London-based O'Neill, who helps manage $840 billion. "The
notion that BRICs benefit at the expense of others is
increasingly out of date."
Investors should buy copper, coal and oil to take advantage
of the growth of cities in emerging markets, according to
Standard Chartered, which says the Chinese yuan, Indian rupee
and Korean won will appreciate on strengthening domestic growth.
Developed nations also will benefit as their emerging-
market counterparts invest more abroad, hire more of their
workers and rely on their expertise in areas such as financial
services, said Lyons, who will be at Davos. He predicts both the
U.S. and European Union will enjoy an average trend growth of
2.5 percent through 2030, compared with the 1.9 percent and 1.7
percent he forecasts for this year.
"It's a win-win situation," said Lyons, who concedes
growth won't always be strong and continuous during the entire
period.
Increasing Integration
The increasing integration of China and other developing
economies will boost commerce and investment worldwide, agrees
Edward Prescott, a senior monetary adviser to the Federal
Reserve Bank of Minneapolis who shared the 2004 Nobel Prize for
analysis of business cycles and economic policy.
Prescott points to South Carolina, which has benefited from
new factories opened by Chinese companies such as appliance
maker Haier Group. The International Monetary Fund projects this
year will be the first in which Chinese foreign investment
outpaces inward flows.
"The whole world's going to be rich by the end of this
century," Prescott said.
Such euphoria may be muted in Davos, given the European
sovereign-debt crisis, fears of a real-estate bubble in China
and mounting public-debt burdens, said Nariman Behravesh, chief
economist at consultants IHS in Lexington, Massachusetts, who is
attending the meeting.
"There's going to be more optimism but still some
worries," he said.
High Unemployment
Talk of a super-cycle gets little support from Joseph
Stiglitz, a Davos veteran and 2001 Nobel laureate. He contends
that globalization and free trade may be stymied by unemployment
in rich nations and the risk that more of these countries' jobs
will be lost abroad. The U.S. jobless rate has remained above 9
percent since May 2009.
"Standard Chartered works mostly in developing markets,
and that shapes its world view," said Stiglitz, an economics
professor at Columbia University in New York. "If you work in
emerging markets, you feel the energy. If you are in the U.S. or
Europe, you see the numbers and it's hard not to feel
depressed."
The difference reflects a "shift in the center of gravity
in the world economy, in which the West is struggling to keep up
with turbo-charged," emerging markets, says Stephen King, chief
global economist in London at HSBC Holdings Plc and a former
U.K. Treasury official. He will outline in Davos what he calls
the next phase of globalization: increased trade among emerging
countries.
Rising Global Output
His team calculated this month that by 2050, global output
will have trebled and average annual growth will accelerate
toward 3 percent from 2 percent in the last decade, with
emerging markets contributing twice as much to the expansion as
the developed world.
Ian Bremmer, president and founder of the Eurasia Group, a
political-risk consulting company in New York, is more downbeat
as he heads to the Swiss ski resort. He predicts what he calls a
"G-Zero" era in which no country has the political or economic
leverage to dominate the international agenda and all nations
focus on their own priorities. That will reduce economic
efficiency and prompt trade conflicts, he said.
Volatility, Uncertainty
The subsequent volatility and uncertainty mean U.S. assets
will prove the "comparative safest bet" and the price of gold
will stay high, Bremmer said, after touching a record $1,432.50
an ounce on Dec. 7. Fixed-income securities still may suffer as
nations impose capital controls, which Brazil and South Korea
have done lately, while companies will continue saving rather
than spending, he predicted.
"Corporations will keep trillions of dollars on the
sidelines," he said Jan. 5 on "Bloomberg Surveillance" with
Ken Prewitt and Tom Keene. "They're just very uncertain about
where the world is heading."
John Hawksworth, the London-based head of macroeconomics at
PricewaterhouseCoopers, is confident a so-called zero-sum world
isn't in the cards. His own attempt to see into the future this
month generated a projection that a bloc of seven leading
emerging markets, including India and China, will be 64 percent
larger than the current Group of Seven by 2050 at market-
exchange rates, compared with 36 percent smaller today.
Even so, average income levels in the G-7 countries will
rise in absolute terms as new market opportunities open up for
their businesses, and consumers will benefit from lower-cost
imports, predicts Hawksworth, who has served as a consultant to
the World Bank and whose company will release its annual survey
of executives in Davos tomorrow.
"There is a shift in economic power from West to East, but
the West can still do well," Lyons said.
--With assistance from Helene Fouquet and Greg Viscusi in Paris,
David Lynch in Washington, and Michael McKee and Tom Keene in
New York. Editors: Melinda Grenier, Daniel Moss.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Simon Kennedy in Zurich at +44-20-7330-7086 or
skennedy4@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Craig Stirling at +44-20-7673-2841 or
cstirling1@bloomberg.net
quinta-feira, 20 de janeiro de 2011
(BN) Yuan to Trade With Aussie, Singapore, Standard Chartered Says
Yuan to Trade With Aussie, Singapore, Standard Chartered Says
2011-01-20 10:53:48.222 GMT
By Emma O'Brien
Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- China will allow direct trading of
the yuan against the Australian and Singaporean dollars as the
world's largest exporter strives to reduce the role of the
greenback in trade, Standard Chartered Plc says.
Spot trading of the yuan versus Malaysia's ringgit started
in August and Russia's Micex exchange has traded the yuan
against the ruble since Dec. 16. HSBC Holdings Plc plans to
offer spot trading between the yuan and the Turkish lira in
March, according to a Jan. 11 statement.
"The yuan internationalization process is clearly
accelerating and I would expect this to continue, particularly
in Asia," Callum Henderson, global head of currency research in
Singapore at Standard Chartered, the U.K. bank that generates
more than three quarters of its earnings from Asia, said in an
e-mail interview yesterday. "We expect more countries, such as
Singapore and Australia, to see this kind of bilateral currency
agreement in due course."
For Related News and Information:
To chart the yuan vs the ruble: RRCCO+TD <Crncy> GIP <GO>
The ringgit against the yuan: CNYMYR <Crncy> GP <GO>
More currency news: TOP FRX <GO>
More China news: TOP CH <GO>
Further news on currencies: TOP FRX <GO>
--With assistance from Sonja Cheung in Beijing and David Yong in
Singapore. Editors: Alex Nicholson, Peter Branton.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Emma O'Brien in Moscow at +7-495-771-7749 or
eobrien6@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Gavin Serkin at +44-20-7673-2467 or gserkin@bloomberg.net
2011-01-20 10:53:48.222 GMT
By Emma O'Brien
Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- China will allow direct trading of
the yuan against the Australian and Singaporean dollars as the
world's largest exporter strives to reduce the role of the
greenback in trade, Standard Chartered Plc says.
Spot trading of the yuan versus Malaysia's ringgit started
in August and Russia's Micex exchange has traded the yuan
against the ruble since Dec. 16. HSBC Holdings Plc plans to
offer spot trading between the yuan and the Turkish lira in
March, according to a Jan. 11 statement.
"The yuan internationalization process is clearly
accelerating and I would expect this to continue, particularly
in Asia," Callum Henderson, global head of currency research in
Singapore at Standard Chartered, the U.K. bank that generates
more than three quarters of its earnings from Asia, said in an
e-mail interview yesterday. "We expect more countries, such as
Singapore and Australia, to see this kind of bilateral currency
agreement in due course."
For Related News and Information:
To chart the yuan vs the ruble: RRCCO+TD <Crncy> GIP <GO>
The ringgit against the yuan: CNYMYR <Crncy> GP <GO>
More currency news: TOP FRX <GO>
More China news: TOP CH <GO>
Further news on currencies: TOP FRX <GO>
--With assistance from Sonja Cheung in Beijing and David Yong in
Singapore. Editors: Alex Nicholson, Peter Branton.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Emma O'Brien in Moscow at +7-495-771-7749 or
eobrien6@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Gavin Serkin at +44-20-7673-2467 or gserkin@bloomberg.net
(BN) Bullish Real Bets Jump as Rates Undercut Mantega: Brazil Credit
Bullish Real Bets Jump as Rates Undercut Mantega: Brazil Credit
2011-01-20 02:39:30.689 GMT
By Boris Korby and Ye Xie
Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- International investors are building
bullish bets on Brazil's real at the fastest pace in four months
as the central bank begins raising benchmark rates after a six-
month pause.
Wagers the currency will rise increased by a net 36,820 in
the week through Jan. 18, the most since the period ended Sept.
21, and now stand at 31,681. On Jan. 11, bets the real would
fall outnumbered wagers the currency would gain by 5,139, the
most in six months, data from BM&FBovespa SA in Sao Paulo show.
The rebound in foreigners' confidence in the real indicates
Finance Minister Guido Mantega may struggle to stem the
currency's two-year rally as central bank President Alexandre
Tombini raises interest rates to curb inflation amid the fastest
economic expansion in two decades. Yesterday's 50 basis-point
increase in the overnight rate to 11.25 percent bolsters the
yield advantage investors get in buying debt in Brazil, which
has the highest inflation-adjusted rates among G-20 nations.
"The central bank and the government have different
objectives," Paul Biszko, an emerging-market strategist at
Royal Bank of Canada in Toronto, said in a telephone interview.
"They are in a difficult situation. Brazil is still flooded
with diversified capital inflows. All they can do is slow the
pace of the appreciation."
The real has climbed for six of the past seven days and
strengthened 39 percent since the beginning of 2008 against the
U.S. dollar, the most among the 16 major currencies after the
Australian dollar. The extra yield investors demand to own
Brazilian government bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries rose 8
basis points to 175 yesterday, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Exporters' Profits
The currency's surge is cutting into exporters' profits by
making their goods more expensive in dollar terms and helping
push the country's annual current-account deficit to a record
$49 billion.
In a bid to brake the rally, Mantega tripled the tax on
foreigners' purchases of fixed-income securities in October,
imposed reserve requirements on short dollar positions last
month and authorized the country's sovereign wealth fund to buy
dollars in the futures market this month.
Last week, the central bank made bets against the real in
the futures market by auctioning off $1 billion worth of reverse
currency swaps. Mantega told reporters on Jan. 14 that he'd take
more measures if needed.
None of the measures so far are sufficient to weaken the
real, said Roberto Melzi, a strategist at Barclays Capital in
New York.
'Massive' Inflows
"Flows coming in are massive," Melzi said. "Generally
speaking there is a limit to what" can be done, he said.
Investors have piled into Brazil in search of higher
returns amid near-zero rates in the U.S., Japan and European
Union. Foreigners poured a record $62 billion into Brazilian
debt and stocks in the first 11 months of last year, up from $46
billion in 2009, according to the central bank.
Tombini, in his first policy meeting as head of the central
bank, raised the benchmark rate to 11.25 percent yesterday from
10.75 percent, in line with the median forecast in a Bloomberg
survey of 51 economists. Yields on interest-rate futures
contracts show traders expect the bank to raise the rate an
additional 200 basis points to 13.25 percent by year-end,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg. On Jan. 3, the
contracts signaled a year-end rate of 12.75 percent.
Investor expectations for consumer price increases over the
next two years, implied by the yield gap between Brazil's
inflation-linked and fixed-rate bonds, rose to 6.5 percent on
Jan. 17, the highest since November 2008. Annual inflation was
5.9 percent in December, exceeding the government target of 4.5
percent.
Bullish Bets
Bullish bets outnumbered wagers the currency would fall by
as many as 221,615 on Oct. 15, three days before Mantega raised
a tax on foreign capital inflows for a second time that month.
Other emerging market countries have also moved to limit
currency gains. Chile's central bank has a $12 billion plan to
buy dollars in the spot currency market, while South Korea and
Taiwan last month tightened capital controls to help stem
inflows of funds from abroad.
Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predict the real will fall
to 1.69 per dollar by the end of June from 1.6705 yesterday,
according to the median of 13 forecasts.
A combination of a stronger dollar and further measures by
Brazil will cause the real to decline by the second quarter,
said David Beker, chief Latin America strategist at Bank of
America Corp. in New York.
Bearish Forecast
"We are convinced that the government is not comfortable
with the currency where it is," Beker said in a telephone
interview. "This indicates a likelihood of further measures"
to weaken the real. Bank of America expects the real depreciate
to 1.80 by the second quarter, the most bearish of the forecasts
compiled by Bloomberg along with Standard Chartered.
The cost of protecting Brazilian bonds against default for
five years climbed three basis points yesterday to 110,
according to data provider CMA. Credit-default swaps pay the
buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or
the cash equivalent should a government or company fail to
comply with debt agreements.
Petroleo Brasileiro SA, the state-controlled energy
producer, said yesterday it plans to sell bonds overseas in what
may be its only benchmark international debt sale this year to
help finance a five-year, $224 billion investment program.
The yield on Brazil's interest-rate futures contract due in
January 2012 rose one basis point to 12.42 percent.
Efforts by the government to stem currency gains will be
ineffective, said Kevin Daly, who helps manage $6 billion at
Aberdeen Asset Management in London.
"A lot of that pressure on the currency is still there,"
he said in an interview. "We don't see any catalyst in the
short term for any sharp selloff in the real.
For Related News and Information:
Brazil Credit Market Stories: NI BZCREDIT <GO>
Top Emerging-Market News: TOP EM <GO>
Most-Read News on Brazil: MNI BRAZIL <GO>
Bloomberg News in Portuguese: NH PBN <GO>
--Editors: Brendan Walsh, David Papadopoulos
To contact the reporters on this story:
Boris Korby in New York at +1-212-617-1073 or
bkorby1@bloomberg.net;
Ye Xie in New York at +1-212-617-2768 or
yxie6@bloomberg.net;
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
David Papadopoulos at +1-212-617-5105 or
papadopoulos@bloomberg.net
2011-01-20 02:39:30.689 GMT
By Boris Korby and Ye Xie
Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- International investors are building
bullish bets on Brazil's real at the fastest pace in four months
as the central bank begins raising benchmark rates after a six-
month pause.
Wagers the currency will rise increased by a net 36,820 in
the week through Jan. 18, the most since the period ended Sept.
21, and now stand at 31,681. On Jan. 11, bets the real would
fall outnumbered wagers the currency would gain by 5,139, the
most in six months, data from BM&FBovespa SA in Sao Paulo show.
The rebound in foreigners' confidence in the real indicates
Finance Minister Guido Mantega may struggle to stem the
currency's two-year rally as central bank President Alexandre
Tombini raises interest rates to curb inflation amid the fastest
economic expansion in two decades. Yesterday's 50 basis-point
increase in the overnight rate to 11.25 percent bolsters the
yield advantage investors get in buying debt in Brazil, which
has the highest inflation-adjusted rates among G-20 nations.
"The central bank and the government have different
objectives," Paul Biszko, an emerging-market strategist at
Royal Bank of Canada in Toronto, said in a telephone interview.
"They are in a difficult situation. Brazil is still flooded
with diversified capital inflows. All they can do is slow the
pace of the appreciation."
The real has climbed for six of the past seven days and
strengthened 39 percent since the beginning of 2008 against the
U.S. dollar, the most among the 16 major currencies after the
Australian dollar. The extra yield investors demand to own
Brazilian government bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries rose 8
basis points to 175 yesterday, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Exporters' Profits
The currency's surge is cutting into exporters' profits by
making their goods more expensive in dollar terms and helping
push the country's annual current-account deficit to a record
$49 billion.
In a bid to brake the rally, Mantega tripled the tax on
foreigners' purchases of fixed-income securities in October,
imposed reserve requirements on short dollar positions last
month and authorized the country's sovereign wealth fund to buy
dollars in the futures market this month.
Last week, the central bank made bets against the real in
the futures market by auctioning off $1 billion worth of reverse
currency swaps. Mantega told reporters on Jan. 14 that he'd take
more measures if needed.
None of the measures so far are sufficient to weaken the
real, said Roberto Melzi, a strategist at Barclays Capital in
New York.
'Massive' Inflows
"Flows coming in are massive," Melzi said. "Generally
speaking there is a limit to what" can be done, he said.
Investors have piled into Brazil in search of higher
returns amid near-zero rates in the U.S., Japan and European
Union. Foreigners poured a record $62 billion into Brazilian
debt and stocks in the first 11 months of last year, up from $46
billion in 2009, according to the central bank.
Tombini, in his first policy meeting as head of the central
bank, raised the benchmark rate to 11.25 percent yesterday from
10.75 percent, in line with the median forecast in a Bloomberg
survey of 51 economists. Yields on interest-rate futures
contracts show traders expect the bank to raise the rate an
additional 200 basis points to 13.25 percent by year-end,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg. On Jan. 3, the
contracts signaled a year-end rate of 12.75 percent.
Investor expectations for consumer price increases over the
next two years, implied by the yield gap between Brazil's
inflation-linked and fixed-rate bonds, rose to 6.5 percent on
Jan. 17, the highest since November 2008. Annual inflation was
5.9 percent in December, exceeding the government target of 4.5
percent.
Bullish Bets
Bullish bets outnumbered wagers the currency would fall by
as many as 221,615 on Oct. 15, three days before Mantega raised
a tax on foreign capital inflows for a second time that month.
Other emerging market countries have also moved to limit
currency gains. Chile's central bank has a $12 billion plan to
buy dollars in the spot currency market, while South Korea and
Taiwan last month tightened capital controls to help stem
inflows of funds from abroad.
Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predict the real will fall
to 1.69 per dollar by the end of June from 1.6705 yesterday,
according to the median of 13 forecasts.
A combination of a stronger dollar and further measures by
Brazil will cause the real to decline by the second quarter,
said David Beker, chief Latin America strategist at Bank of
America Corp. in New York.
Bearish Forecast
"We are convinced that the government is not comfortable
with the currency where it is," Beker said in a telephone
interview. "This indicates a likelihood of further measures"
to weaken the real. Bank of America expects the real depreciate
to 1.80 by the second quarter, the most bearish of the forecasts
compiled by Bloomberg along with Standard Chartered.
The cost of protecting Brazilian bonds against default for
five years climbed three basis points yesterday to 110,
according to data provider CMA. Credit-default swaps pay the
buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or
the cash equivalent should a government or company fail to
comply with debt agreements.
Petroleo Brasileiro SA, the state-controlled energy
producer, said yesterday it plans to sell bonds overseas in what
may be its only benchmark international debt sale this year to
help finance a five-year, $224 billion investment program.
The yield on Brazil's interest-rate futures contract due in
January 2012 rose one basis point to 12.42 percent.
Efforts by the government to stem currency gains will be
ineffective, said Kevin Daly, who helps manage $6 billion at
Aberdeen Asset Management in London.
"A lot of that pressure on the currency is still there,"
he said in an interview. "We don't see any catalyst in the
short term for any sharp selloff in the real.
For Related News and Information:
Brazil Credit Market Stories: NI BZCREDIT <GO>
Top Emerging-Market News: TOP EM <GO>
Most-Read News on Brazil: MNI BRAZIL <GO>
Bloomberg News in Portuguese: NH PBN <GO>
--Editors: Brendan Walsh, David Papadopoulos
To contact the reporters on this story:
Boris Korby in New York at +1-212-617-1073 or
bkorby1@bloomberg.net;
Ye Xie in New York at +1-212-617-2768 or
yxie6@bloomberg.net;
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
David Papadopoulos at +1-212-617-5105 or
papadopoulos@bloomberg.net
Assinar:
Postagens (Atom)