Barclays: Implications of the EU’s ‘mega package’

We assess sovereign solvency in Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Italy. In addition to government debt dynamics, we account for financing needs, banking sector risks and reliance on foreign capital. Our results suggest: 1) while Greece has the worst debt dynamics, the five countries' overall vulnerability scores move closer together when liquidity needs, banking sector risks and exposure to 'sudden stops' in foreign capital flows are included; 2) Italy appears much more robust than the rest of the group; 3) the EU-ECB actions last weekend can go a long way in addressing financing and liquidity-related issues, thereby lowering the risk of self-fulfilling dynamics; and 4) however, the massive adjustment challenge of turning around these countries' debt dynamics remains. This is likely to shift markets' attention to the actual implementation of the promised fiscal reforms and economic performance in response to them. If these disappoint, the very positive market reaction of recent days may not last.

(BN) Dow Plunges Most Since 1987 Before Paring Losses; Euro

Dow Plunges Most Since 1987 Before Paring Losses; Euro Tumbles
2010-05-06 20:06:04.294 GMT


By Michael P. Regan and Rita Nazareth
    May 6 (Bloomberg) -- The Dow Jones Industrial Average had
its biggest intraday loss since the market crash of 1987, the
euro slid to a 14-month low and yields on Greek, Spanish and
Italian bonds surged on concern European leaders aren't doing
enough to stem the region's debt crisis. U.S. Treasuries soared.
    New York Stock Exchange spokesman Rich Adamonis said "there
were a number of erroneous trades" during the plunge. The NYSE
told CNBC that there were no system errors as speculation of
erroneous trades swirled through the market. The Nasdaq OMX
Group Inc. said it is working with other markets to review the
plunge.
    The Dow average lost as much as 998.5 points, or 9.2
percent, before paring its drop to 348.63 points at the 4 p.m.
close of trading in New York. It ended the day at 10,519.49, a
two-month low. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell as much as
8.6 percent, its biggest plunge since December 2008, before
trimming declines to end down 3.3 percent at 1,128.03.
    "It's panic selling," said Burt White, chief investment
officer at LPL Financial in Boston, which oversees $379 billion.
"There's concern that the European situation might cool down
global growth and freeze the credit markets."
    European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet held
interest rates at a record low of 1 percent today and said the
bank didn't discuss whether to purchase government bonds to stem
the region's debt crisis, defying market speculation that he
would take such measures.
    The euro maintained losses even as Greece's parliament
approved austerity measures demanded by the European Union and
International Monetary Fund as a condition of its 110 billion
euro ($140 billion) bailout.

                      Market 'Horrified'

    "The ECB can fix this instantly by doing what the Fed has
done -- instantly providing liquidity by buying bad fixed-income
instruments and paying cash in U.S. dollars," said David
Kovacs, head of quantitative strategies at Turner Investment
Partners in Berwyn, Pennsylvania, which manages $18 billion.
"The reason the market is horrified now is Trichet said it's
not even being discussed. Smart investors are basically selling
risk assets."
    The MSCI Asia Pacific Index joined the MSCI World Index and
the Stoxx 600 Index in wiping out its advance for 2010. The Dow
and S&P 500 briefly erased their yearly gains before paring
losses.
    Bank of America Corp., Hewlett-Packard Co. and American
Express Co. tumbled more than 4.5 percent to lead declines in
the 30-stock Dow average.
    The benchmark index for U.S. stock options surged as much
as 63 percent, the most since February 2007, to 40.71 before
paring its advance to 37 percent. The VIX, as the Chicago Board
Options Exchange Volatility Index is known, measures the cost of
using options as insurance against declines in the S&P 500.

                       Treasury Yields

    Yields on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes plunged 16 basis
points to 3.377 percent on demand for assets considered the most
safe. The Dollar Index, which measures the currency against six
major trading partners, jumped as much as 1.4 percent. The yen
and Swiss franc also strengthened.
    Yields on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage securities
that guide U.S. home-loan rates jumped the most relative to
Treasuries in almost a year.
    Spreads on Fannie Mae's current-coupon 30-year fixed-rate
mortgage bonds widened about 0.1 percentage point to 0.89
percentage point more than 10-year Treasuries as of 2:45 p.m. in
New York, the biggest jump since May 27, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg.
    The gap touched a record low of 0.59 percentage point on
March 29 as the Federal Reserve that month completed its
purchases of $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage bonds.
    "Fear is taking over, and images of Greek mobs aren't
helping," said Larry Peruzzi, equity trader at Cabrera Capital
Markets in Boston, Massachusetts, referring to televised images
of demonstrations against austerity measures in Athens. "Buyers
are stepping aside and disregarding fundamentals."

For Related News and Information:
Developed Markets View: DMMV <GO>
Emerging Markets View: EMMV <GO>
World equity valuations: WPE <GO>
World equity index monitor: WEI <GO>
Bonds and Money Markets Page: BTMM <GO>
Cross Currency Rates: FXC <GO>
World Currency Ranker: WCRS <GO>
Market map of today's trading: MXWO <Index> IMAP <GO>
Commodities Prices: GLCO <GO>

--With assistance from Mark Gilbert and Keith Jenkins in London,
Simon Kennedy in Paris, Simone Meier in Dublin, John Detrixhe,
Elizabeth Stanton, Inyoung Hwang and Michael Tsang and Mark
Shenk in New York and Pham-Duy Nguyen in Seattle. Editors: Chris
Nagi, Dan Hauck.

To contact the reporters on this story:
Michael P. Regan in New York at +1-212-617-7747 or
Mregan12@bloomberg.net;
Rita Nazareth in New York at +1-212-617-8908 or
rnazareth@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Chris Nagi at +1-212-617-2179 or chrisnagi@bloomberg.net.

THE ECB'S ROCK AND HARD PLACE - Article by State Street Bank

+ THE ECB'S ROCK AND HARD PLACE ++ - Article by State Street Bank

Morning,

A timely note from our strategist Lee Ferridge around the dangers the ECB
face later today if they decide to inject further stimulus via quantitative
easing -

There is much market speculation that the European Central Bank will on
Thursday announce a quantitative easing programme designed to purchase
Greek government bonds and hence, reduce both pressure on Greece and help
to fight the contagion that has gripped European markets (and those further
afield) in recent days. While it can be argued that the Fed's QE programme
of 2009 and early 2010 (and, to a lesser extent, that of the Bank of
England) proved successful in heading off the "great depression" risk
following the bursting of the credit bubble, the dilemma facing the ECB is
entirely different.

The Fed's QE programme was designed to stimulate the domestic economy
further when traditional monetary policy (i.e. interest rates) had reached
their lower bound (i.e. zero). No more stimulus could be provided at the
short-end of the curve and hence, money was printed in order to buy
government bonds and thereby reduce rates at the longer-end (which is what
QE effectively does).

However, if the ECB were to QE now, it would not be because monetary policy
had reached its lower bound, while EUR 2-yr swap rates yesterday reached
record lows. Rather any ECB QE programme would be started simply because
there are no buyers of Greek government debt – i.e. the ECB would be
monetizing the fiscal deficit; printing money to finance a fiscal policy
that has lost market credibility; the Zimbabwe scenario. Printing money to
overcome the lower bound of monetary policy and printing money in order to
fund government debt is a subtle, but extremely important distinction.
Monetising fiscal mistakes risks further undermining confidence in European
government debt, leading to even higher longer-term rates and hence, more
money printing.

Not only this, but both ECB independence and, the supposed separation of
fiscal and monetary policy would also be thrown into question by such an
announcement on Thursday. The Fed and BoE faced similar risks in 2009 but,
given the alternative of the great depression and lost decade they were
given the benefit of the doubt by the market. The ECB faces an entirely
different set of circumstances and hence, if it uses its "nuclear option"
on Thursday any relief for the euro is likely to be short-lived; a matter
of days (or even hours), rather than weeks. Of course, with no such
announcement Thursday there will be no relief for the euro; a further
widening in periphery bond spreads and a fresh euro sell-off will ensue.
The rock and the hard place – make your choice Mr Trichet. Either way, the
outlook for the euro remains bleak

SPX vs Dollar Index vs Crude Oil year to date returns

(BN) U.S. Consumer Confidence Report for April (Text)

2010-04-27 14:00:53.97 GMT


    April 27 (Bloomberg) -- Following is the text of
U.S. consumer confidence from the Conference Board.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had
rebounded in March, increased further in April. The Index now
stands at 57.9 (1985=100), up from 52.3 in March. The Present
Situation Index increased to 28.6 from 25.2. The Expectations
Index improved to 77.4 from 70.4.

The Consumer Confidence Survey® is based on a representative
sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is
conducted for The Conference Board by TNS. TNS is the world's
largest custom research company. The cutoff date for April's
preliminary results was April 20th.

Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer
Research Center: "Consumer confidence, which had rebounded in
March, gained further ground in April. The Index is now at its
highest reading in about a year and a half (Sept. 2008, 61.4).
Consumers' concerns about current business and labor market
conditions eased again. And, their outlook regarding business
conditions and the labor market was also more positive than
last month. Looking ahead, continued job growth will be key
in sustaining positive momentum."

Consumers' appraisal of present-day conditions was more
positive in April. Those claiming conditions are "good"
increased to 9.1 percent from 8.5 percent, while those
claiming business conditions are "bad" declined to 40.2
percent from 42.1 percent. Consumers' appraisal of the labor
market also improved. Those saying jobs are "plentiful"
increased to 4.8 percent from 4.0 percent, while those saying
jobs are "hard to get" decreased to 45.0 percent from 46.3
percent.

Consumers' outlook was also brighter in April. The percentage
of consumers expecting business conditions will improve over
the next six months increased to 19.8 percent from 18.0 percent,
while those expecting conditions will worsen declined to 12.6
percent from 13.6 percent.

Consumers were also more optimistic about the job outlook. The
percentage of consumers anticipating more jobs in the months
ahead increased to 18.0 percent from 14.1 percent, while those
anticipating fewer jobs declined to 20.0 percent from 21.4
percent. The proportion of consumers anticipating an increase
in their incomes declined to 10.3 from 10.8 percent.


The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, May 25, at 10:00
AM ET.

SOURCE: The Conference Board
http://www.conference-board.org

--Editor: Alex Tanzi


To contact the reporter on this story:
Alex Tanzi in Washington at +1-202-624-1959 or
atanzi@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Marco Babic at +65 6212-1886 or mbabic@bloomberg.net

New-home sales surge 26,9% to 411,000 pace

It was the largest percentage gain in sales since April 1963, the government said. It was the highest sales pace since July, and much stronger than the 325,000 expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. See our complete economic calendar and consensus forecast.

Year to date comparison: IBOV / OGX / PETROBRAS

SP FUT and SPDJMEAN

Goldman Sachs opssss

Indice Ibovespa FUTURO : Area de perigo de reversão

Pelo menos eu vejo uma neste grafico intradiario 60 min.

Sugar Medio USD/MT

Este grafico diario representa a media do preço do açucar nas praças de sao paulo, ny e londres em dolares por tonelada metrica.

Ponto de suporte importante sendo respeitado.

(BN) Obama Prods Leaders on Curbing Nuclear Terror Threat

Obama Prods Leaders on Curbing Nuclear Terror Threat (Update1)
2010-04-12 12:32:56.340 GMT


By Viola Gienger and Roger Runningen
    April 12 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama, spurred by
al-Qaeda's pursuit of a nuclear bomb and the wider use of atomic
energy, opens a summit of 47 nations today aimed at keeping the
world's plutonium and uranium out of terrorists' hands.
    Obama has said he wants a pledge and a plan from the other
leaders at the two-day meeting in Washington on securing nuclear
materials within four years. To succeed, he'll have to overcome
indifference, allegations of interference, the status conferred
by atomic weapons and the financial benefits of nuclear trade,
according to analysts who follow the issue.
    "When the United States first started working to secure
nuclear materials overseas, our teams of experts found highly
radioactive materials stored in open fields without any
security," Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told an audience
at the University of Louisville in Kentucky last week. They saw
"the ingredients for nuclear bombs warehoused in facilities
without electricity, telephones or armed guards."
    The summit is the latest step in a series by Obama on one
of his foreign policy goals, laying the groundwork for someday
eliminating nuclear weapons. The meeting follows his signing of
a treaty with Russia last week to further cut their atomic
weapons and the unveiling of an administration doctrine that
reduces the role of nuclear arms in the U.S.'s defense strategy
and makes preventing nuclear terrorism a top priority.
    The possibility of a terrorist group getting a nuclear
weapon is "the single biggest threat to U.S. security" in the
near and distant future, Obama said yesterday before meeting
with South African President Jacob Zuma.
    "If there was ever a detonation in New York City, or
London, or Johannesburg, the ramifications economically,
politically, and from a security perspective would be
devastating," Obama said.

                     Bipartisan Agreement

    The goal of the summit "is getting the international
community on the path in which we are locking down that nuclear
material in a very specific time frame with a specific work
plan," Obama said.
  The summit also gives the president a chance to burnish his
foreign policy credentials after battles with Congress over a
health-care overhaul.
    "It's one of the few things Republicans and Democrats can
share the same talking points on," said Deepti Choubey, deputy
director of nuclear policy at the Washington-based Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace. "This is all about him and
his executive authority."
    The president cited nuclear terrorism as the most immediate
and extreme threat to global security in his Prague speech in
April 2009. He reiterated that in his Nuclear Posture Review
last week.

                           Terrorism

    Terrorists "can fabricate a crude nuclear device that can
destroy an American city" with just 25 kilograms (55 pounds) of
highly enriched uranium, said Joseph Cirincione, president of
the San Francisco-based Ploughshares Fund, which finances
projects on nuclear issues. "The trick is to stop them from
getting the stuff."
    Al-Qaeda, the group responsible for the Sept. 11 attack on
New York and the Pentagon, has tried repeatedly to obtain stolen
nuclear materials, said Matthew Bunn, an associate professor at
Harvard University who once worked as an adviser on U.S. nuclear
controls.
    "In 2003, they were negotiating to buy what they believed
were three nuclear devices," Bunn told reporters at a briefing
last week by the Fissile Materials Working Group, independent
experts backing Obama's effort. "The United States has never
managed to identify" a Pakistani expert referenced in a message
as helping al-Qaeda, Bunn said.

                       Gaps in Security

    Pakistan and Russia have some of the biggest risks because
of gaps in security and the potential for access by insiders who
are either corrupted or sympathetic to militant groups, he said.
    Research reactors fueled by highly enriched uranium, many
housed on university campuses with minimal security, also
present a threat.
    Groups that have sought nuclear weapons include the Aum
Shinrikyo cult that killed 12 people in a 1995 sarin gas attack
on the Tokyo subway, Bunn said. The United Nation's atomic-
energy agency has documented 18 cases of theft or loss of highly
enriched uranium or plutonium, not counting incidents that
individual countries haven't confirmed, he said.
    Earlier this year, peace activists exposed the
vulnerabilities of stockpiles when they broke into a nuclear
weapons base in Belgium.
    "The global stockpile of nuclear weapons materials is
large enough to build more than 120,000 nuclear bombs," said
Alexandra Toma, co-chairwoman of the Fissile Materials Working
Group.

                         Middle East

    Middle Eastern nations pursuing nuclear power for energy
such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar will
add to the supply of potentially vulnerable raw materials,
specialists say.
    "We're in a way returning to a sort of creeping
proliferation," said Hans Kristensen, director of the nuclear
information project at the Washington-based Federation of
American Scientists. "Once these countries start developing
nuclear power, you have a significant spread of technology and
material."
    While Iran is already producing its own enriched uranium,
saying it plans to generate energy for peaceful use, U.S.
officials fear the endeavor will spur neighbors to pursue the
same goal, further destabilizing the region.
    Not all countries are convinced of the danger, said former
Ambassador Gregory Schulte, who was the U.S. representative at
the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna from 2005
to 2009.
    Syria constructed a reactor in the desert "and no one
notices for five years," Schulte said. Israel bombed the
reactor in September 2007.

For Related News and Information:
Top stories: TOP <GO>
Stories on Obama and terrorism: TNI EXE TERROR <GO>
Top government stories: TOP GOV <GO>

--Editors: Joe Sobczyk, Brigitte Greenberg.

To contact the reporters on this story:
Viola Gienger in Washington at +1-202-624-1990 or
vgienger@bloomberg.net;
Roger Runningen in Washington at +1-202-624-1884 or
rrunningen@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Jim Kirk at +1-202-654-4315 or
jkirk12@bloomberg.ne

no Estadão !!!! 05/04/10

http://economia.estadao.com.br/noticias/not_12114.htm

Sai no Jornal: OESP 05/04/2010

Apesar de ter dito para jornalista que não possuo investimentos em ações no momento, ela desenhou um cenário completamente diferente do que descrevi a ela.

Deixei claro que eu não tinha ações e que se tivesse uma posição em bolsa hj não teria ações, APENAS ETFs...

Ainda bem que o importante sobre ETFs ela registrou: Mitiga-se risco quando se opera um ETF vs operar 1 único papel qualquer. O pequeno investidor conservador, mas que opera renda variável, quer qualidade vs volatilidade de retornos. 

O mundo fica dizendo que o mercado financeiro precisa passar por uma maior regulaçao e controle. Tenho a impressão que os jornalistas tb teriam que passar pelo mesmo. Não estou falando em censura, óbvio que não. Mas em 17 anos de trabalho com finanças, TODAS AS VEZES, que conversei com algum jornalista, TODAS AS VEZES, disse A escreveram B..... Incroyable! Onde esta a evolução no jornalismo?

Se a caneta é uma arma, porque jornalista pode escrever o que quer e não o que ouviu. É que nem deixar atirar pra qualquer lado.....tipo: Olha escreva um artigo sobre ETFs qq coisa que estiver escrito neste sentido esta bom....Triste...a trasmissao de informaçao poderia ser muito mais qualitativa...quem sabe em 2016.

Noticia Realcionada: http://economia.estadao.com.br/noticias/not_12114.htm

Lembre-se: Ao contrario de operar ETFs, falar com um jornalista no Brasil é complicado, inseguro e de rentabilidade incerta.

Monster Global Employment Index up in March

The good news is that it gaining momentum worldwide...

Crude Oil breaking higher in NY

Chart of the day: China reversing higher

Good start for this week

All for U

Link to video Warren Buffett

Mais 3 reforços para o meu time

(Bloomberg) China Inflation, Industrial Production Accelerate

China Inflation, Industrial Production Accelerate (Update1)
2010-03-11 02:24:58.278 GMT


    (Adds lending data in fifth paragraph.)

By Bloomberg News
    March 11 (Bloomberg) -- China's inflation reached a 16-
month high, industrial output climbed and new loans exceeded
forecasts, adding to the case for the government to pare back
stimulus measures.
    Consumer prices rose 2.7 percent from a year earlier, the
National Bureau of Statistics said in Beijing today, compared
with the 2.5 percent median estimate of 29 economists surveyed
by Bloomberg News. A weeklong holiday may have boosted prices.
Production expanded 20.7 percent in the first two months of the
year after an 18.5 percent gain in December.
    Premier Wen Jiabao aims to hold full-year inflation around
3 percent after banks flooded the financial system with money to
drive a rebound from the global recession. Gross domestic
product grew 10.7 percent last quarter and central bank Governor
Zhou Xiaochuan said March 6 that anti-crisis policies, including
the yuan's peg to the dollar, must end "sooner or later."
    "With economic growth quickening to more than 10 percent
and record lending flowing through the financial system,
economic overheating is a high possibility," Qu Hongbin, chief
China economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong, said before
today's release. "The government will stay very proactive this
year and an inflation rate approaching 3 percent or topping the
target may trigger an interest-rate increase."

                        Lending Growth

    Banks extended 700 billion yuan ($103 billion) of new loans
in February, central bank data showed today. That compared with
1.39 trillion yuan in the previous month and 1.07 trillion yuan
a year earlier. The median estimate was for 600 billion.
    Stocks held gains after the data, with the Shanghai
Composite Index rising 0.4 percent as of 10:16 a.m. local time,
and the MSCI Asia Pacific index advancing 0.5 percent.
    M2, a measure of money supply, rose 25.5 percent, compared
with a 26 percent gain. The government targets 17 percent M2
growth for this year.
    Retail sales rose 17.9 percent in the first two months from
a year earlier, and urban fixed-asset investment gained 26.6
percent. Retail sales grew 22.1 percent in February, the bureau
said.
    Economists often look at January and February numbers
together to eliminate distortions caused by a one-week Lunar New
Holiday. China's 2010 data is also boosted by comparisons with
year-ago levels depressed by the financial crisis.

                       'Entire Toolkit'

    The government "will need to use the entire toolkit,
including higher policy rates and a stronger currency" to
achieve Wen's inflation target, Brian Jackson, an emerging-
market strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong, said
ahead of today's numbers.
    Trade data yesterday showed exports rebounding faster than
economists forecast, while a property market report showed
prices climbing by the most in almost two years.
    Commodity costs, reforms of China's energy and resource
pricing, and the effects of last year's expansion of credit may
add inflation pressures this year, China's top planning agency
told lawmakers last week. Baoshan Iron & Steel Co. and spirits
manufacturer Kweichow Moutai Co. are among companies to have
pushed up prices this year.
    Producer-price inflation climbed to 5.4 percent in February
from 4.3 percent in January, the statistics bureau said today.

                           Yuan Peg

    The central bank hasn't raised benchmark interest rates
since December 2007, before the financial crisis deepened. The
one-year lending rate is at 5.31 percent and deposit rate is at
2.25 percent. China has also effectively pegged the yuan at
about 6.83 per dollar since July 2008 to help exporters.
    The central bank has twice raised lenders' reserve
requirements this year. Deputy Governor Su Ning said this week
that those moves were to prevent monetary conditions becoming
"excessively loose" as the government continues to implement
what it describes as a "moderately loose" stance.
    Policy makers are targeting lending of 7.5 trillion yuan,
22 percent less than last year's actual figure, and pledging to
crack down on property speculation. The government has tightened
second-home mortgages and banks have scaled back favorable home
loan rates.

For Related News and Information:
Most-read stories on China: MNI CHINA 1W <GO>
Most-read China economy stories: TNI CHECO MOSTREAD BN <GO>
For top economic news: TOP ECO <GO>
For top China news: TOP CHINA <GO>
Credit crunch page: WCC <GO>
Government relief programs: GGRP <GO>

--Li Yanping. Editors: Paul Panckhurst, Chris Anstey.

To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story:
Li Yanping in Beijing at +86-10-6649-7568 or
yli16@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Chris Anstey at +81-3-3201-7553 or
canstey@bloomberg.net

(Bloomberg) Roubini Says ‘Super Cautious’ China to Limit Yuan Gain to 4%

+---------------------------------------BCW---------------------------------------+

Roubini Says 'Super Cautious' China to Limit Yuan Gain to 4%
2010-03-07 17:10:17.90 GMT


By Ye Xie
    March 8 (Bloomberg) -- China will limit the yuan's
appreciation to 4 percent over the next 12 months because
of a "super cautious" outlook on the global economy, said
New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini.
    The central bank may end a 20-month peg to the dollar
as soon as the second quarter, allowing a 2 percent one-
step gain, and then let the currency strengthen another 1
percent to 2 percent in 12 months, Roubini said in an
interview in New York. The yuan rose 21 percent between
July 2005 and July 2008, when the government halted its
advance to protect exports during the global recession.
    Roubini's forecast is less aggressive than the median
estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 20 analysts for the yuan
to rise 5 percent to 6.50 per dollar by March 31, 2011.
Chinese central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said on March
6 that the nation should be "very cautious" in exiting
policies adopted during the global financial crisis,
including the exchange-rate stance.
    "It will be less than what they did in 2005 when
everything was going right," Roubini, 51, who anticipated
the global financial crisis, said in the March 4 interview.
"They will move by a token amount. The world is much
cloudier in every dimension. They are super cautious."

                      'Hard Landing'

    Roubini, who chairs New York-based Roubini Global
Economics LLC, has become famous for his pessimistic
projections. In 2007, he correctly predicted a "hard
landing" for the world economy. He said last year that the
global economy would shrink through 2009, only for growth
to resume in the middle of the year.
     Jim O'Neill, the chief Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
economist who coined the term BRICs for Brazil, Russia,
India and China in 2001, said last month that "something
is brewing" on the yuan and predicted policy makers will
allow a one-time 5 percent gain. Twelve-month non-
deliverable forwards traded at 6.6505 per dollar,
indicating bets the yuan will rise 2.6 percent from the
spot rate of 6.8265.
    "We must be very cautious about the timing of
normalizing the policies, and this includes the renminbi
rate policy," Zhou said at a press briefing in Beijing,
using another term for the Chinese currency. A global
recovery "isn't solid," he said.

                     'Sooner or Later'

    China will exit its crisis policies "sooner or
later" as it balances growth and inflation concerns, Zhou
said. Regulators ordered banks to set aside more cash as
reserves and to curb lending after the economy grew 10.7
percent in the fourth quarter, the most in two years.
    Consumer prices probably climbed 2.5 percent in
February from a year earlier, the biggest increase since
October 2008, compared with 1.5 percent in January,
according to the median estimate from 29 economists. A
stronger currency would reduce import prices and may reduce
the need to sell yuan for dollars to maintain the peg.
    "A bit of move in the currency might help," Roubini
said. "If they move it by 2-3 percent, it won't make a
huge difference to inflation pressure. They are always
cautious and won't bow to the pressure from the U.S."
    While President Barack Obama has urged China to let
the yuan climb to aid U.S. manufacturers, Chinese
exporters say a gain of more than 2 percent may wipe out
profits.

                     Export Recovery

    China's overseas shipments rose 21 percent in January
from a year earlier, the fastest pace in 16 months. Fifteen
U.S. senators called for stiffer tariffs on China's imports
last week, accusing the country of artificially keeping the
yuan cheap. A stronger yuan would increase the purchasing
power of Chinese residents and reduce the country's
reliance on exports.
    "Most people are concerned about inflation, I am
worried about the export-led growth model," said Roubini.
"A weak currency and low interest rate is a massive
transfer of wealth from household income to enterprises. It
will take more than three, five years to change China's
model of growth."
    Options traders are increasing their bets on the
currency. Three-month implied volatility, a measure of
expectations for yuan price movements, showed traders
expected swings of 3.27 percent on March 4, a one-year
high, up from 1.07 percent on Jan. 1. The next day the
measure slumped to 2.8 percent as Premier Wen Jiabao said
China plans to keep the currency "basically stable."
    "The Chinese authorities will be in no rush to
further strengthen their currency," said Joe Craven, the
Asia-Pacific head of currencies and fixed-income at
UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking in Hong Kong. "I
view options volatility as being currently too high,
especially in the shorter-end of the curve."

--With assistance from Judy Chen in Shanghai, Belinda Cao
in Beijing and Bob Chen in Hong Kong. Editors: Sandy
Hendry, Laura Zelenko.

For Related News and Information:
Top currency stories: TOP FX <GO>
Currency forecasts: FXFC <GO>
Currency rates: XDSH <GO>
Currency returns: WCRS <GO>

To contact the reporter on this story:
Ye Xie in New York at +1-212-617-2768 or
yxie6@bloomberg.net
Judy Chen in Shanghai at +86-21-6104-7047 or
Xchen45@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
David Papadopoulos at +1-212-617-5105 or
papadopoulos@bloomberg.net
Sandy Hendry at +852-2977-6608 or
shendry@bloomberg.net.

Parabens pela introdução destes novos papeis

Pessoal,

Agora um Brasileiro comum pode comprar um indice do setor imobiliario a R$1806 reais, um indice de consumo por R$2682 reais e um BRAX das top 100 por apenas R$4215.

Isso na minha sincera opinião é uma revolução.

Parabens a toda a equipe iShares por este feito evolucionário na gestão do risco da carteira do brasileiro comum.....

Contem comigo sempre,

B

NUMEROS RUINS NOS US HJ

Sent from São Paulo, Brasil
Jonathan Swift  - "May you live every day of your life."

(BN) Currency Trading Is Place to Make Your Fortune:

interessante

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Currency Trading Is Place to Make Your Fortune: Matthew Lynn
2010-02-16 00:00:00.0 GMT


Commentary by Matthew Lynn
    Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- This columnist is usually reluctant
to respond to requests for career advice that occasionally find
their way into my e-mail box.
    Yet from time to time, there is a move so obvious for
anyone finishing college or university this year, or
contemplating their next step up the career ladder, that it is
worth pointing out.
    And right now it is this:
    Forget hedge funds, walk away from private equity and tell
the derivatives boys they can dump their baffling mathematical
formulas in the dustbin under the desk.
    Instead, become a currency trader. They are set to become
the new kings of the financial markets.
    The sovereign-debt crisis, the demise of the dollar and the
creation of new reserve currencies all mean that the great
financial reputations and fortunes will be made in foreign
exchange in the coming few years.
    In any decade, one sector of the financial markets is
usually dominant. There is one corner of the financial universe
where so much new stuff is happening, and it is of such
importance to the rest of the world, that it is far easier for a
young, ambitious person to make their mark than anywhere else.
    In the 1980s, it was mergers-and-acquisitions deals.
    In the 1990s, it was the venture capitalist who backed
technology companies, and the bankers who arranged initial
public offerings for dot-com companies on the stock market.

                         New Masters

    In the 2000s, it was hedge funds, along with the
derivatives traders that supplied them with products.
    But in the 2010s, it will be currency trading.
    There are already plenty of signs that the foreign-exchange
markets are hotter than a sunny day on Venus.
    Deutsche Bank AG reported last month that its currency-
trading platform for retail investors had a 40 percent increase
in customer numbers in 2009. Ordinary investors clearly see
exchange trading as an area of the market they want to be in.
    In London, which is the global currency-trading hub, strong
growth is also evident. According to a Bank of England study,
daily trading volumes rose 13 percent to $1.43 trillion in
October compared with April last year. In the U.S., foreign-
exchange trading volumes rose 28 percent to $675 billion a day
in the six months ended in October, according to a Federal
Reserve-affiliated study. Those are impressive numbers. The
volume of London trading isn't quite back to pre-credit crunch
levels, but it is getting close.

                         Debt Crisis

    There are several good reasons for expecting currency
trading to be the focus for financial markets this decade.
    First, the sovereign-debt crisis. Governments took on huge
debt to combat the financial meltdown. That didn't really fix
the problem. It just shifted it from one place to another. Now
there are doubts about whether nations can service their
obligations. The only way the markets can discipline
governments, or pass a verdict on their performance, is via the
currency markets. However the crisis eventually works out, it is
the foreign-exchange markets that will be in the driver's seat.
    Second, the dollar is in long-term decline. Regardless of
how well the U.S. recovers, the rise of new economies such as
China, Brazil and India means America won't be the dominant
force in the world that it once was. The result? The dollar's
special status is coming to an end. That may be a good thing
after some intense volatility as the world adjusts. Again, it is
currency traders who will be in control of that transition.

                        Store of Value

    Third, the advent of new reserve currencies. With the
dollar on the way down, the world will need something as a
reliable store of value. There are plenty of candidates: It
might be gold, an International Monetary Fund-sponsored basket
of currencies, or a new world currency. Who knows, it could be
something nobody has thought of yet. Ultimately it will be
foreign-exchange traders who decide what works and what doesn't.
    You can add into the mix some low-probability, yet high-
impact, events. Perhaps Germany will get fed up bailing out
Greece and Portugal and leave the euro. Maybe the Chinese will
decide to make the yuan the world's dominant currency. Neither
scenario is especially likely, but they would create shockwaves
through the markets for years.
    There are usually two conditions for one sector of the
financial markets to be dominant: There must be lots of
innovation, and lots of volatility.
    Right now, currency trading ticks both boxes.
    That's why if you work in the markets, figuring out clever
ways of swapping euros into yen, and dollars into pounds would
be the best thing you could do. It will be the fastest way to
make your fortune.

    (Matthew Lynn is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions
expressed are his own.)

    Click on "Send Comment" in the sidebar display to send a
letter to the editor.

For Related News and Information:
Top currency stories: TOP FRX <GO>
To read more columns by Matthew Lynn: NI LYNN <GO>
More commentaries: OPED <GO>

--Editors: David Henry, David Clarke.

To contact the writer of this column:
Matthew Lynn in London at +44-20-330-7171 or
matthewlynn@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this column:
James Greiff at +1-212-617-5801 or jgreiff@bloomberg.net

SUA BANDA LARGA CAI COM QUE FREQUENCIA?

Minha internet - a pergunta vale pra TODOS no planeta TERRA.rsss

no minimo 2 xs ao dia 

no maximo chega a cair 9 xs...

e a sua cai com que frequencia? me respondam please. B

(BN) China Sustains Expansion as Exports Climb, Price

China Sustains Expansion as Exports Climb, Price Pressures Grow
2010-02-01 03:11:17.480 GMT


By Bloomberg News
    Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world's third-biggest
economy, sustained its manufacturing expansion in January as
export orders jumped and inflation pressures grew, two surveys
showed today.
    A purchasing managers' index released by HSBC Holdings Plc
and Markit Economics rose to a record. A second survey, by the
Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, recorded the second-
fastest expansion since 2008.
    Stocks tumbled as the reports spurred concern that the
government will have to escalate efforts to rein in the credit
growth that has fueled the nation's infrastructure spending
surge. After raising banks' reserve requirements this month and
targeting reduced credit growth in 2010, policy makers may raise
interest rates by the end of June, according to the median
estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.
    "It's a solidly expansionary reading, consistent with
expectations of continued momentum in the economy," said David
Cohen, an economist with Action Economics in Singapore.
    The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index of stocks fell 1.5
percent as of 10:55 a.m., extending this year's slide to 10
percent.
    The HSBC index rose to a seasonally adjusted 57.4 from 56.1
in December and the survey showed input and output price indexes
rose to the highest levels since July 2008. Export sales rose at
a "near-record rate," a statement on Markit's Web site said.
    Meanwhile, the government-backed Purchasing Managers' Index
fell to a seasonally adjusted 55.8 from 56.6 in December, an e-
mailed statement showed. Growth in output and orders slowed,
while export demand rose more quickly.

                           Snowstorms

    The figures may partly reflect disruptions from cold
weather and snowstorms, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and UBS AG. said.
    China is paring monetary stimulus to limit inflation and
the risk of asset bubbles in the economy that Nomura Holdings
Inc. says will contribute a third of global growth this year.
China's growth accelerated to 10.7 percent, the fastest pace
since 2007, in the fourth quarter of 2009 after a 4 trillion
yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package and record lending
helped the nation lead the world out of recession.
    Today's figure in the logistics federation's survey was
less than the median 56.5 estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of
16 economists. The decline was the first in eight months. The
output index dropped for the first time since May last year,
falling to 60.5 from 61.4 in December. The export-orders index
rose to 53.2 from 52.6.

                        'Crucial Stage'

    "China's economy is at a crucial stage of moving from
rebounding to stabilizing" with exports set to make a bigger
contribution to growth, said Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the
State Council Development and Research Center. "In the meantime,
companies may face a tougher environment with rising costs and
intensified competition."
    Companies benefiting from the nation's rebound include
Chongqing Changan Automobile Co., which said Jan. 27 that 2009
profit may have climbed more than 4000 percent on higher
sales and cost controls. China Railway Construction Co. said the
same day that profit likely increased more than 50 percent from
3.6 billion yuan a year earlier because of the nation's extra
infrastructure spending.
    The world's third-biggest economy may gain momentum this
quarter as exports surge 30 percent, making an interest-rate
increase more likely as inflation rises, according to China
International Capital Corp. China's 10.5 percent expansion this
year will compare with the global economy's 4.2 percent, Nomura
forecasts.

                          Faster Pace

    The nation's growth may accelerate to 12 percent this
quarter, triggering a rate increase as early as this month as
inflation rises to 3 percent, according to Sun Mingchun, an
economist at Nomura in Hong Kong.
   China is pursuing a "proactive fiscal policy" and
moderately loose monetary policy," Vice Premier Li Keqiang
reaffirmed in a speech on Jan. 28 at the World Economic Forum in
Davos, Switzerland.
    Such policies will lead to "huge markets for the world and
huge opportunities" for foreign companies, he said. Li's
comments reflected a pledge in November by Premier Wen Jiabao to
speed the shift from investment- and export-led growth to an
economy "driven by consumption, investment and exports in a
coordinated way."
    "We expect GDP to grow by 9 percent in 2010 and our next
revision is more likely to be upward," said Wang Tao, an
economist with UBS AG in Beijing. "We expect the government to
err on the side of keeping policy accommodative."
    The manufacturing index, released by the logistics
federation and the Beijing-based National Bureau of Statistics,
is based on replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing
executives at more than 730 companies in 20 industries. It
started in 2005.
    The official PMI surveys mainly large and state-owned
companies, while HSBC's sample of more than 400 is weighted
more towards smaller businesses and export-related companies,
said Xing Ziqiang, an economist at China International Capital
Corp. It began in 2004.

For Related News and Information:
China economic snapshot: ESNP CH <GO>
Most-read stories on China: MNI CHINA 1W <GO>
Most-read China economy stories: TNI CHECO MOSTREAD BN
<GO>
Top economic news: TOP ECO <GO>

--Kevin Hamlin, Li Yanping. Editors: Paul Panckhurst, John
McCluskey.

To contact the Bloomberg News staff on this story:
Kevin Hamlin in Beijing on +86-10-6649-7573 or
khamlin@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Chris Anstey at +65-6212-1130 or
canstey@bloomberg.net

(BN) Berkshire Surges After Being Picked to Join S&P 500

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Berkshire Surges After Being Picked to Join S&P 500 (Update1)
2010-01-27 13:34:29.327 GMT


    (Updates shares in the second paragraph, increase in value
of Buffett's stake in the fifth.)

By Andrew Frye
    Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway
Inc., which split its stock 50-for-1 last week, rose in early
trading after being picked to join the Standard & Poor's 500
Index yesterday.
    The Class B stock jumped $5.90, or 8.7 percent, to $73.90
at 8 a.m. in New York. The Omaha, Nebraska-based company will
replace Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. in the index after
completing the takeover of the railroad, S&P said in a statement
after the close of regular trading yesterday.
    Buffett split the Class B shares as part of the $26 billion
railroad acquisition. That brought Berkshire's stock below $75,
making shares available to a larger group of investors and
increasing the trading volume. Buffett told investors at a
Jan. 20 meeting that joining the S&P 500 may prompt index-
tracking fund managers to buy up to 7 percent of Berkshire.
    "There's going to be tremendous buying demand because of
this inclusion," said Glenn Tongue, a partner at T2 Partners
LLC, which owns Berkshire shares. "That's a catalyst for the
stock."
    Funds that track the S&P 500 have about $1 trillion in
assets, according to David Guarino, a spokesman for S&P in New
York. The early trading boosted the value of Buffett's personal
Berkshire stake, which includes Class A and Class B shares, by
$3.68 billion since yesterday's close. The company has gained 11
percent since the share split was approved on Jan. 20.

                     'Smarter Than Anyone'

    "There's Buffett, who's proven he's smarter than anyone
else," said Peter Sorrentino, a senior portfolio manager at
Cincinnati-based Huntington Asset Advisors, which oversees $12.8
billion. Berkshire "is a stock that belongs in the S&P 500."
    Buffett, the 79-year-old Berkshire chairman and chief
executive officer, is welcoming a broader base of investors to
the firm he built in the past four decades. Traders and equity
analysts have long paid Berkshire less attention than other
companies of similar size because of its elevated share price
and relatively stable investor base, led by Buffett who owns
roughly a quarter of the stock. Berkshire's Class B traded as
high as $3,340 the day before the split took effect.
    "I can't imagine another stock that's more deserving of
being in the S&P," said Michael Yoshikami, chief investment
strategist at YCMNet Advisors, which holds Berkshire shares.
"It will naturally have higher demand from the index funds."

                     Investing 'Forever'

    Berkshire's Class A shares advanced $9,249, or 9.1 percent,
to $111,000 late yesterday and hadn't traded by 8 a.m. today.
The firm, which was valued at about $158 billion as of
yesterday's close, has advanced more than 10-fold over the last
two decades.
    Buffett says his ideal investment horizon is "forever."
Berkshire is the biggest shareholder of Coca-Cola Co. and
American Express Co., and Buffett has held those stocks for more
than two decades even as both trade below their top prices in
the 1990s. He's recorded multibillion dollar gains for Berkshire
on investments in Capital Cities/ABC Inc. and PetroChina Inc.
    Index funds may give Berkshire shares stability, Buffett
told shareholders last week.
    "You've got a permanent stockholder for 6 or 7 percent of
your shares," Buffett said. "We like permanent shareholders.
That's exactly what we're looking for."

For Related News and Information:
Largest Class B shareholders: BRK/B US <Equity> PHDC1 <GO>
Berkshire price ratio analysis: BRK/A US <Equity> FA PRA <GO>
Table of largest Berkshire acquisitions: NSN KSJNB207SXKX <GO>
More on Buffett: BIO WARREN BUFFETT <GO>
Top deal news: DTOP <GO>

--With assistance from Lynn Thomasson, Rita Nazareth and Nikolaj
Gammeltoft in New York. Editors: Steve Geimann, Erik Holm.

To contact the reporter on this story:
Andrew Frye in New York at +1-212-617-4652 or
afrye@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Dan Kraut at +1-212-617-2432 or dkraut2@bloomberg.net.

--
-----

Bertrand Clausell Wanclik (GMAIL)
http://trendsniffer.blogspot.com
http://kuizine.blogspot.com
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/0/b55/631  
+55 11 9955-6390
__________________________________
Sent from São Paulo, Brasil
Stephen Leacock  - "I detest life-insurance agents: they always argue that I shall some day die, which is not so."

China’s GDP Growth Accelerates to Fastest Since 2007

sobe no boato e realiza no fato....

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

China's GDP Growth Accelerates to Fastest Since 2007 (Update4)
2010-01-21 07:12:00.247 GMT


    (Updates stocks in fifth paragraph.)

By Bloomberg News
    Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- China's growth accelerated to the
fastest pace since 2007 in the fourth quarter, capping Premier
Wen Jiabao's success in shielding the nation from the global
recession and adding pressure to rein in a surge in credit.
    Gross domestic product rose 10.7 percent from a year before,
more than the median forecast of 10.5 percent in a Bloomberg
News survey, a statistics bureau report showed in Beijing today.
Asset-price gains, particularly in property, are creating
problems for the government to guide the economy, Ma Jiantang,
who heads the bureau, told reporters after the release.
    The report stokes speculation the central bank will start
raising its benchmark interest rate and tighten restrictions on
the nation's lenders. The one-year swap rate, an indicator of
future changes in borrowing costs, climbed and the People's Bank
of China guided three-month bill yields higher for the second
time in two weeks.
    "Today's data suggest that tighter policy is just around
the corner," said Brian Jackson, a Hong Kong-based strategist
on emerging markets at Royal Bank of Canada. "Policy makers
will need to move soon to stop the economy from overheating,"
he said, forecasting officials will end an exchange-rate peg and
boost interest rates starting this quarter.
    Stocks across Asia were mixed today, with Japan's Nikkei
225 Average rising 1.2 percent at the close and Australia's
Standard & Poor's/ASX 200 Index falling 0.8%. The Shanghai
Composite Index was up 0.5 percent at 2:55 p.m. local time. The
one-year swap rate, the fixed cost for receiving a floating rate
for 12 months, rose three basis points to 2.32 percent.

                         Global Engine

    The world may again this year count on China as the biggest
engine of growth. The World Bank late yesterday raised its
forecast for the global expansion in 2010 to 2.7 percent from 2
percent in June, and predicted 9 percent growth in China, which
is poised to overtake Japan as No. 2 in GDP rankings this year.
    Mining company Rio Tinto Group reported a 49 percent jump
in fourth-quarter iron ore output on China's demand, while
companies ranging from Ford Motor Co. and Volkswagen AG to Hong
Kong billionaire Cheng Yu-tung's New World Department Store
China Ltd. are expanding in the nation.
    Consumer prices rose a more-than-forecast 1.9 percent in
December from a year earlier, the second straight gain after
nine declines. Producer prices climbed 1.7 percent, after
declining for the previous 12 months, today's report showed.

                       'Too Worrisome'

    "The inflation trend is too worrisome for the government
and we will continue to see policy tightened," said Isaac Meng,
senior economist at BNP Paribas SA in Beijing. Meng predicted
that the consumer-price inflation rate will exceed 3 percent in
coming months, and that the PBOC will increase banks' ratio of
assets held as reserves by 1.5 percentage points by July 1.
    The statement from the statistics bureau today mirrored a
Wen speech on Jan. 19 by omitting a pledge to keep monetary
policy "moderately loose." Ma, the head of the National Bureau
of Statistics, did cite that pledge in his press briefing.
    After last year overtaking the U.S. as the biggest auto
market and Germany as the biggest exporter, China is poised to
slot behind America this year as the second-largest economy.
China's GDP last year was 33.535 trillion yuan ($4.9 trillion),
the statistics bureau said today, almost the same as the World
Bank's 2008 estimate for Japan.

                   China Versus Japan

    Bank of America-Merrill Lynch said today that its estimates
showed China didn't surpass Japan last year. While Japan's
economy shrank, calculations are also affected by currency
fluctuations.
    According to Wen, policy makers' key tasks this year
include managing credit growth, controlling inflation and
countering property speculation.
    For the full year, GDP gained 8.7 percent, beating Wen's 8
percent target. Retail sales rose 16.9 percent after adjusting
for consumer price changes, the bureau said. The government
previously said that gain was the biggest since 1986.
    Wen this week indicated that he's putting more emphasis on
monthly data than year-on-year figures exaggerated by the
slowdown from late 2008. December retail sales of 1.26 trillion
yuan compared with a previously announced 1.13 trillion yuan in
November, indicating an increase of more than 11 percent.
    China will begin releasing month-on-month comparisons for
key economic indicators from March, Ma said today.

                    Sales, Production

    Sales quickened in December on a year-earlier basis,
climbing 17.5 percent, while industrial production increased at
a slower pace of 18.5 percent, today's report showed. Urban
fixed-asset investment jumped 30.5 percent in 2009, the
statistics bureau said.
   The economy's third straight quarterly acceleration
highlights risks that inflation may surge and asset bubbles form
after monetary policy committee member Fan Gang said in November
that growth of more than 10 percent is excessive. Banking
regulator Liu Mingkang confirmed yesterday that lending limits
exist for some banks and said credit growth will slow this year.
    Fourth-quarter economic growth was driven by an
unprecedented $586 billion stimulus package, subsidies for
consumer purchases and a credit-fueled investment boom. The
property market has rebounded and a 13-month slump in exports
ended last month.
    Managing the economy may become more difficult because of
so-called hot money pouring in from investors betting on the
nation's recovery and gains in the yuan, which has been held at
about 6.83 per dollar since July 2008 to help exporters. As much
as $30 billion a month of speculative capital may flow in during
the first half of this year, according to Bank of America-
Merrill Lynch.

                         Bubble Concern

    China is already a bubble, 62 percent of investors and
analysts said in a quarterly Bloomberg survey of subscribers.
    Liu, the banking regulator, said yesterday in Hong Kong
that banks will extend 7.5 trillion yuan of loans this year,
about 22 percent less than last year's unprecedented 9.59
trillion yuan. The central bank this month ordered lenders to
set aside a larger proportion of deposits as reserves and has
guided bill yields higher after 2010 began with a surge in
lending.
    China's 2009 GDP growth rate was down from 9.6 percent in
the previous year. The statistics bureau today revised its
estimate of growth in the third quarter of 2009 to 9.1 percent
from 8.9 percent. It changed the first-quarter figure to 6.2
percent from 6.1 percent.

For Related News and Information:
Most-read stories on China: MNI CHINA 1W <GO>
Most-read China economy stories: TNI CHECO MOSTREAD BN <GO>
For top economic news: TOP ECO <GO>
For top China news: TOP CHINA <GO>
Credit crunch page: WCC <GO>
Government relief programs: GGRP <GO>

--Li Yanping, Kevin Hamlin, Jay Wang. Editors: Paul Panckhurst,
Russell Ward.

To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story:
Li Yanping in Beijing at +86-10-6649-7568 or
yli16@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Chris Anstey at +81-3-3201-7553 or
canstey@bloomberg.net

U.S. Economy: Leading Indicators Index Rise More Than Expected 7 of 10

UP

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

U.S. Economy: Leading Indicators Index Rise More Than Forecast
2010-01-21 16:59:01.304 GMT


By Timothy R. Homan
    Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The index of U.S. leading
indicators rose more than anticipated in December, a sign the
economy will keep growing through the first half of the year.
    The New York-based Conference Board's gauge of the outlook
for the next three to six months climbed 1.1 percent, the most
in three months, after increasing 1 percent in November. The
gain exceeded the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey
for a 0.7 percent rise. Another report showed Philadelphia-area
manufacturing expanded in January for a fifth straight month.
    Fewer firings, rising stock prices and Federal Reserve
efforts to keep interest rates low propelled the leading index,
while growth in exports and inventories have spurred
production. Sustained demand and faster economic growth will
hinge on employment gains that have yet to materialize.
    "The economic recovery still has momentum," said Tim
Quinlan, an economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in
Charlotte, North Carolina, who correctly forecast the December
gain. "Right now, the linchpin is confidence. Both businesses
and consumers need to feel like it's a worthwhile thing to
start spending money again."
    U.S. stocks slumped for a second day as President Barack
Obama proposed limiting the size and trading activities of
financial institutions and on concern China will take more
steps to cool off its economy. Standard & Poor's 500 Index
dropped 1.8 percent to 1,118.14at 11:57 a.m. in New York.
Treasury securities rose.
    China's economy expanded from October through December at
the fastest pace since 2007, the statistics bureau in Beijing
reported. Such growth is helping drive exports and boost sales
for U.S. factories.

                   Manufacturing Expansion

    Manufacturing in the Philadelphia area grew in January,
corroborating figures last week showing expansion at factories
in the New York region. The Fed Bank of Philadelphia's general
economic index of manufacturing in the area fell to 15.2 this
month from 22.5 in December.
    The index was less than the 18 reading economists had
expected, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg
survey. Figures greater than zero signal growth. The report
showed a measure of employment rose to the highest level in
almost two years.
    Labor Department figures today showed jobless claims
unexpectedly increased to 482,000 last week from 446,000 a week
earlier, reflecting a backlog of applications from the year-end
holidays.
    Economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected the leading
indicators index would increase 0.7 percent from a previously
reported 0.9 percent gain in November, according to the median
of 58 estimates. Forecasts for the index, which has increased
nine straight months, ranged from gains of 0.3 percent to 1.1
percent.

                   Eight Indicators Rise

    Eight of the 10 indicators in the leading index
contributed to the increase, led by the difference between
long-term and short-term interest rates, building permits and a
drop in jobless claims in December. None of the indicators fell
during the month.
    The Conference Board's index of coincident indicators, a
gauge of current economic activity, rose 0.1 percent in
December for a third month. The index tracks payrolls, incomes,
sales and production, the measures used by the National Bureau
of Economic Research to determine the beginning and end of U.S.
recessions.
    The world's largest economy will probably expand at a 2.7
percent annual pace from January through March and at a 2.9
percent rate in the following quarter, according to the median
estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg earlier this
month.

                     Darda Optimistic

    Michael Darda, chief economist at MKM Partners LP in
Greenwich, Connecticut, is more optimistic. He said in an
interview with Bloomberg Radio today that the economy will
expand 4 percent this year, mirroring rebounds from recessions
in the 1970s and 1980s.
    Darda said growth will be ignited by the "initial spark"
from a recovery in capital markets and corporate earnings, as
well as the rebuilding of inventories. The job market will
recover more slowly, with unemployment falling to about 9
percent by the end of this year from 10 percent in December, he
said.
    Seven of 10 indicators for the leading index are known
ahead of time: stock prices, jobless claims, building permits,
consumer expectations, the yield curve, factory hours and
supplier delivery times.
    Jobless claims averaged 460,250 in December, down from
480,750 a month earlier. U.S. stocks continued to rise last
month as reports suggested the economy was improving. The S&P
500 averaged 1,110.38 in December, compared with 1,088.07 the
previous month. The index reached the highest closing level in
14 months on Dec. 28.

                     Building Permits

    Applications for building permits rose 11 percent to a
653,000 annual rate last month, the most since October 2008,
the Commerce Department said yesterday.
    "We are seeing stabilization in the economy," Brian
Moynihan, chief executive of Bank of America Corp., said
yesterday in an interview. The head of the largest U.S. lender,
said the economy is still "fragile."
    Reiterating their pledge to keep interest rates
"exceptionally low" for "an extended period," Fed policy
makers last month said the recovery faced hurdles.
    The central bankers, who next meet Jan. 26-27 in
Washington, will keep their target for overnight lending among
banks unchanged through September before raising it by half a
point in the fourth quarter, according to the median forecast
of economists surveyed this month. The Fed has kept the
benchmark rate near zero since December 2008.

For Related News and Information:
Search for stories on the U.S. economy: NI USECO <GO>
Stories on manufacturing: TNI US MAC <GO>
Stories on the Federal Reserve: NI FED BN <GO>
Bloomberg News about companies' earnings: TNI COS ERN BN <GO>
U.S. economy forecasts: OUTL US <GO>
U.S. GDP figures: GDP US <GO>

--With assistance from Scott Lanman and Vincent Del Giudice in
Washington, Rachel Layne in Boston, Thomas Keene in New York
and
Will Daley in Chicago. Editors: Vince Golle, Carlos Torres

To contact the reporter on this story:
Timothy R. Homan in Washington at +1-202-624-1961 or
thoman1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Christopher Wellisz at +1-202-624-1862 or
cwellisz@bloomberg.net

Petrobras stop 35 compra + a 37

PETR4 35 stop 37 +

Le Monde.fr : Bonne année 2010 !

Cette information du Monde.fr vous est envoyée par bwanclik@hotmail.com.



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Bonne année 2010 !

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Euro vs dollar

NY Times Article: Contrarian Investor Sees Economic Crash in China

January 8, 2010
Contrarian Investor Sees Economic Crash in China
By DAVID BARBOZA

SHANGHAI — James S. Chanos built one of the largest fortunes on Wall Street by foreseeing the collapse of Enron and other highflying companies whose stories were too good to be true.

Now Mr. Chanos, a wealthy hedge fund investor, is working to bust the myth of the biggest conglomerate of all: China Inc.

As most of the world bets on China to help lift the global economy out of recession, Mr. Chanos is warning that China's hyperstimulated economy is headed for a crash, rather than the sustained boom that most economists predict. Its surging real estate sector, buoyed by a flood of speculative capital, looks like "Dubai times 1,000 — or worse," he frets. He even suspects that Beijing is cooking its books, faking, among other things, its eye-popping growth rates of more than 8 percent.

"Bubbles are best identified by credit excesses, not valuation excesses," he said in a recent appearance on CNBC. "And there's no bigger credit excess than in China." He is planning a speech later this month at the University of Oxford to drive home his point.

As America's pre-eminent short-seller — he bets big money that companies' strategies will fail — Mr. Chanos's narrative runs counter to the prevailing wisdom on China. Most economists and governments expect Chinese growth momentum to continue this year, buoyed by what remains of a $586 billion government stimulus program that began last year, meant to lift exports and consumption among Chinese consumers.

Still, betting against China will not be easy. Because foreigners are restricted from investing in stocks listed inside China, Mr. Chanos has said he is searching for other ways to make his bets, including focusing on construction- and infrastructure-related companies that sell cement, coal, steel and iron ore.

Mr. Chanos, 51, whose hedge fund, Kynikos Associates, based in New York, has $6 billion under management, is hardly the only skeptic on China. But he is certainly the most prominent and vocal.

For all his record of prescience — in addition to predicting Enron's demise, he also spotted the looming problems of Tyco International, the Boston Market restaurant chain and, more recently, home builders and some of the world's biggest banks — his detractors say that he knows little or nothing about China or its economy and that his bearish calls should be ignored.

"I find it interesting that people who couldn't spell China 10 years ago are now experts on China," said Jim Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros and now lives in Singapore. "China is not in a bubble."

Colleagues acknowledge that Mr. Chanos began studying China's economy in earnest only last summer and sent out e-mail messages seeking expert opinion.

But he is tagging along with the bears, who see mounting evidence that China's stimulus package and aggressive bank lending are creating artificial demand, raising the risk of a wave of nonperforming loans.

"In China, he seems to see the excesses, to the third and fourth power, that he's been tilting against all these decades," said Jim Grant, a longtime friend and the editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, who is also bearish on China. "He homes in on the excesses of the markets and profits from them. That's been his stock and trade."

Mr. Chanos declined to be interviewed, citing his continuing research on China. But he has already been spreading the view that the China miracle is blinding investors to the risk that the country is producing far too much.

"The Chinese," he warned in an interview in November with Politico.com, "are in danger of producing huge quantities of goods and products that they will be unable to sell."

In December, he appeared on CNBC to discuss how he had already begun taking short positions, hoping to profit from a China collapse.

In recent months, a growing number of analysts, and some Chinese officials, have also warned that asset bubbles might emerge in China.

The nation's huge stimulus program and record bank lending, estimated to have doubled last year from 2008, pumped billions of dollars into the economy, reigniting growth.

But many analysts now say that money, along with huge foreign inflows of "speculative capital," has been funneled into the stock and real estate markets.

A result, they say, has been soaring prices and a resumption of the building boom that was under way in early 2008 — one that Mr. Chanos and others have called wasteful and overdone.

"It's going to be a bust," said Gordon G. Chang, whose book, "The Coming Collapse of China" (Random House), warned in 2001 of such a crash.

Friends and colleagues say Mr. Chanos is comfortable betting against the crowd — even if that crowd includes the likes of Warren E. Buffett and Wilbur L. Ross Jr., two other towering figures of the investment world.

A contrarian by nature, Mr. Chanos researches companies, pores over public filings to sift out clues to fraud and deceptive accounting, and then decides whether a stock is overvalued and ready for a fall. He has a staff of 26 in the firm's offices in New York and London, searching for other China-related information.

"His record is impressive," said Byron R. Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Services. "He's no fly-by-night charlatan. And I'm bullish on China."

Mr. Chanos grew up in Milwaukee, one of three sons born to the owners of a chain of dry cleaners. At Yale, he was a pre-med student before switching to economics because of what he described as a passionate interest in the way markets operate.

His guiding philosophy was discovered in a book called "The Contrarian Investor," according to an account of his life in "The Smartest Guys in the Room," a book that chronicled Enron's rise and downfall.

After college, he went to Wall Street, where he worked at a series of brokerage houses before starting his own firm in 1985, out of what he later said was frustration with the way Wall Street brokers promoted stocks.

At Kynikos Associates, he created a firm focused on betting on falling stock prices. His theories are summed up in testimony he gave to the House Committee on Energy and Commerce in 2002, after the Enron debacle. His firm, he said, looks for companies that appear to have overstated earnings, like Enron; were victims of a flawed business plan, like many Internet firms; or have been engaged in "outright fraud."

That short-sellers are held in low regard by some on Wall Street, as well as Main Street, has long troubled him.

Short-sellers were blamed for intensifying market sell-offs in the fall 2008, before the practice was temporarily banned. Regulators are now trying to decide whether to restrict the practice.

Mr. Chanos often responds to critics of short-selling by pointing to the critical role they played in identifying problems at Enron, Boston Market and other "financial disasters" over the years.

"They are often the ones wearing the white hats when it comes to looking for and identifying the bad guys," he has said.

Feliz 2010

Que 2010 seja o inicio do ciclo 2010 - 2016.

Talvez estejamos prestes a viver no maior e melhor periodo de aceleraçao da historia para o Brasil desde o final dos anos 70.

Vamos conferir e desfrutar....feliz 2010!!!com muita saude, felicidade e paz!!!!