(Bloomberg) Roubini Says ‘Super Cautious’ China to Limit Yuan Gain to 4%

+---------------------------------------BCW---------------------------------------+

Roubini Says 'Super Cautious' China to Limit Yuan Gain to 4%
2010-03-07 17:10:17.90 GMT


By Ye Xie
    March 8 (Bloomberg) -- China will limit the yuan's
appreciation to 4 percent over the next 12 months because
of a "super cautious" outlook on the global economy, said
New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini.
    The central bank may end a 20-month peg to the dollar
as soon as the second quarter, allowing a 2 percent one-
step gain, and then let the currency strengthen another 1
percent to 2 percent in 12 months, Roubini said in an
interview in New York. The yuan rose 21 percent between
July 2005 and July 2008, when the government halted its
advance to protect exports during the global recession.
    Roubini's forecast is less aggressive than the median
estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 20 analysts for the yuan
to rise 5 percent to 6.50 per dollar by March 31, 2011.
Chinese central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said on March
6 that the nation should be "very cautious" in exiting
policies adopted during the global financial crisis,
including the exchange-rate stance.
    "It will be less than what they did in 2005 when
everything was going right," Roubini, 51, who anticipated
the global financial crisis, said in the March 4 interview.
"They will move by a token amount. The world is much
cloudier in every dimension. They are super cautious."

                      'Hard Landing'

    Roubini, who chairs New York-based Roubini Global
Economics LLC, has become famous for his pessimistic
projections. In 2007, he correctly predicted a "hard
landing" for the world economy. He said last year that the
global economy would shrink through 2009, only for growth
to resume in the middle of the year.
     Jim O'Neill, the chief Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
economist who coined the term BRICs for Brazil, Russia,
India and China in 2001, said last month that "something
is brewing" on the yuan and predicted policy makers will
allow a one-time 5 percent gain. Twelve-month non-
deliverable forwards traded at 6.6505 per dollar,
indicating bets the yuan will rise 2.6 percent from the
spot rate of 6.8265.
    "We must be very cautious about the timing of
normalizing the policies, and this includes the renminbi
rate policy," Zhou said at a press briefing in Beijing,
using another term for the Chinese currency. A global
recovery "isn't solid," he said.

                     'Sooner or Later'

    China will exit its crisis policies "sooner or
later" as it balances growth and inflation concerns, Zhou
said. Regulators ordered banks to set aside more cash as
reserves and to curb lending after the economy grew 10.7
percent in the fourth quarter, the most in two years.
    Consumer prices probably climbed 2.5 percent in
February from a year earlier, the biggest increase since
October 2008, compared with 1.5 percent in January,
according to the median estimate from 29 economists. A
stronger currency would reduce import prices and may reduce
the need to sell yuan for dollars to maintain the peg.
    "A bit of move in the currency might help," Roubini
said. "If they move it by 2-3 percent, it won't make a
huge difference to inflation pressure. They are always
cautious and won't bow to the pressure from the U.S."
    While President Barack Obama has urged China to let
the yuan climb to aid U.S. manufacturers, Chinese
exporters say a gain of more than 2 percent may wipe out
profits.

                     Export Recovery

    China's overseas shipments rose 21 percent in January
from a year earlier, the fastest pace in 16 months. Fifteen
U.S. senators called for stiffer tariffs on China's imports
last week, accusing the country of artificially keeping the
yuan cheap. A stronger yuan would increase the purchasing
power of Chinese residents and reduce the country's
reliance on exports.
    "Most people are concerned about inflation, I am
worried about the export-led growth model," said Roubini.
"A weak currency and low interest rate is a massive
transfer of wealth from household income to enterprises. It
will take more than three, five years to change China's
model of growth."
    Options traders are increasing their bets on the
currency. Three-month implied volatility, a measure of
expectations for yuan price movements, showed traders
expected swings of 3.27 percent on March 4, a one-year
high, up from 1.07 percent on Jan. 1. The next day the
measure slumped to 2.8 percent as Premier Wen Jiabao said
China plans to keep the currency "basically stable."
    "The Chinese authorities will be in no rush to
further strengthen their currency," said Joe Craven, the
Asia-Pacific head of currencies and fixed-income at
UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking in Hong Kong. "I
view options volatility as being currently too high,
especially in the shorter-end of the curve."

--With assistance from Judy Chen in Shanghai, Belinda Cao
in Beijing and Bob Chen in Hong Kong. Editors: Sandy
Hendry, Laura Zelenko.

For Related News and Information:
Top currency stories: TOP FX <GO>
Currency forecasts: FXFC <GO>
Currency rates: XDSH <GO>
Currency returns: WCRS <GO>

To contact the reporter on this story:
Ye Xie in New York at +1-212-617-2768 or
yxie6@bloomberg.net
Judy Chen in Shanghai at +86-21-6104-7047 or
Xchen45@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
David Papadopoulos at +1-212-617-5105 or
papadopoulos@bloomberg.net
Sandy Hendry at +852-2977-6608 or
shendry@bloomberg.net.

Parabens pela introdução destes novos papeis

Pessoal,

Agora um Brasileiro comum pode comprar um indice do setor imobiliario a R$1806 reais, um indice de consumo por R$2682 reais e um BRAX das top 100 por apenas R$4215.

Isso na minha sincera opinião é uma revolução.

Parabens a toda a equipe iShares por este feito evolucionário na gestão do risco da carteira do brasileiro comum.....

Contem comigo sempre,

B

NUMEROS RUINS NOS US HJ

Sent from São Paulo, Brasil
Jonathan Swift  - "May you live every day of your life."

(BN) Currency Trading Is Place to Make Your Fortune:

interessante

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Currency Trading Is Place to Make Your Fortune: Matthew Lynn
2010-02-16 00:00:00.0 GMT


Commentary by Matthew Lynn
    Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- This columnist is usually reluctant
to respond to requests for career advice that occasionally find
their way into my e-mail box.
    Yet from time to time, there is a move so obvious for
anyone finishing college or university this year, or
contemplating their next step up the career ladder, that it is
worth pointing out.
    And right now it is this:
    Forget hedge funds, walk away from private equity and tell
the derivatives boys they can dump their baffling mathematical
formulas in the dustbin under the desk.
    Instead, become a currency trader. They are set to become
the new kings of the financial markets.
    The sovereign-debt crisis, the demise of the dollar and the
creation of new reserve currencies all mean that the great
financial reputations and fortunes will be made in foreign
exchange in the coming few years.
    In any decade, one sector of the financial markets is
usually dominant. There is one corner of the financial universe
where so much new stuff is happening, and it is of such
importance to the rest of the world, that it is far easier for a
young, ambitious person to make their mark than anywhere else.
    In the 1980s, it was mergers-and-acquisitions deals.
    In the 1990s, it was the venture capitalist who backed
technology companies, and the bankers who arranged initial
public offerings for dot-com companies on the stock market.

                         New Masters

    In the 2000s, it was hedge funds, along with the
derivatives traders that supplied them with products.
    But in the 2010s, it will be currency trading.
    There are already plenty of signs that the foreign-exchange
markets are hotter than a sunny day on Venus.
    Deutsche Bank AG reported last month that its currency-
trading platform for retail investors had a 40 percent increase
in customer numbers in 2009. Ordinary investors clearly see
exchange trading as an area of the market they want to be in.
    In London, which is the global currency-trading hub, strong
growth is also evident. According to a Bank of England study,
daily trading volumes rose 13 percent to $1.43 trillion in
October compared with April last year. In the U.S., foreign-
exchange trading volumes rose 28 percent to $675 billion a day
in the six months ended in October, according to a Federal
Reserve-affiliated study. Those are impressive numbers. The
volume of London trading isn't quite back to pre-credit crunch
levels, but it is getting close.

                         Debt Crisis

    There are several good reasons for expecting currency
trading to be the focus for financial markets this decade.
    First, the sovereign-debt crisis. Governments took on huge
debt to combat the financial meltdown. That didn't really fix
the problem. It just shifted it from one place to another. Now
there are doubts about whether nations can service their
obligations. The only way the markets can discipline
governments, or pass a verdict on their performance, is via the
currency markets. However the crisis eventually works out, it is
the foreign-exchange markets that will be in the driver's seat.
    Second, the dollar is in long-term decline. Regardless of
how well the U.S. recovers, the rise of new economies such as
China, Brazil and India means America won't be the dominant
force in the world that it once was. The result? The dollar's
special status is coming to an end. That may be a good thing
after some intense volatility as the world adjusts. Again, it is
currency traders who will be in control of that transition.

                        Store of Value

    Third, the advent of new reserve currencies. With the
dollar on the way down, the world will need something as a
reliable store of value. There are plenty of candidates: It
might be gold, an International Monetary Fund-sponsored basket
of currencies, or a new world currency. Who knows, it could be
something nobody has thought of yet. Ultimately it will be
foreign-exchange traders who decide what works and what doesn't.
    You can add into the mix some low-probability, yet high-
impact, events. Perhaps Germany will get fed up bailing out
Greece and Portugal and leave the euro. Maybe the Chinese will
decide to make the yuan the world's dominant currency. Neither
scenario is especially likely, but they would create shockwaves
through the markets for years.
    There are usually two conditions for one sector of the
financial markets to be dominant: There must be lots of
innovation, and lots of volatility.
    Right now, currency trading ticks both boxes.
    That's why if you work in the markets, figuring out clever
ways of swapping euros into yen, and dollars into pounds would
be the best thing you could do. It will be the fastest way to
make your fortune.

    (Matthew Lynn is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions
expressed are his own.)

    Click on "Send Comment" in the sidebar display to send a
letter to the editor.

For Related News and Information:
Top currency stories: TOP FRX <GO>
To read more columns by Matthew Lynn: NI LYNN <GO>
More commentaries: OPED <GO>

--Editors: David Henry, David Clarke.

To contact the writer of this column:
Matthew Lynn in London at +44-20-330-7171 or
matthewlynn@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this column:
James Greiff at +1-212-617-5801 or jgreiff@bloomberg.net

SUA BANDA LARGA CAI COM QUE FREQUENCIA?

Minha internet - a pergunta vale pra TODOS no planeta TERRA.rsss

no minimo 2 xs ao dia 

no maximo chega a cair 9 xs...

e a sua cai com que frequencia? me respondam please. B

(BN) China Sustains Expansion as Exports Climb, Price

China Sustains Expansion as Exports Climb, Price Pressures Grow
2010-02-01 03:11:17.480 GMT


By Bloomberg News
    Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world's third-biggest
economy, sustained its manufacturing expansion in January as
export orders jumped and inflation pressures grew, two surveys
showed today.
    A purchasing managers' index released by HSBC Holdings Plc
and Markit Economics rose to a record. A second survey, by the
Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, recorded the second-
fastest expansion since 2008.
    Stocks tumbled as the reports spurred concern that the
government will have to escalate efforts to rein in the credit
growth that has fueled the nation's infrastructure spending
surge. After raising banks' reserve requirements this month and
targeting reduced credit growth in 2010, policy makers may raise
interest rates by the end of June, according to the median
estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.
    "It's a solidly expansionary reading, consistent with
expectations of continued momentum in the economy," said David
Cohen, an economist with Action Economics in Singapore.
    The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index of stocks fell 1.5
percent as of 10:55 a.m., extending this year's slide to 10
percent.
    The HSBC index rose to a seasonally adjusted 57.4 from 56.1
in December and the survey showed input and output price indexes
rose to the highest levels since July 2008. Export sales rose at
a "near-record rate," a statement on Markit's Web site said.
    Meanwhile, the government-backed Purchasing Managers' Index
fell to a seasonally adjusted 55.8 from 56.6 in December, an e-
mailed statement showed. Growth in output and orders slowed,
while export demand rose more quickly.

                           Snowstorms

    The figures may partly reflect disruptions from cold
weather and snowstorms, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and UBS AG. said.
    China is paring monetary stimulus to limit inflation and
the risk of asset bubbles in the economy that Nomura Holdings
Inc. says will contribute a third of global growth this year.
China's growth accelerated to 10.7 percent, the fastest pace
since 2007, in the fourth quarter of 2009 after a 4 trillion
yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package and record lending
helped the nation lead the world out of recession.
    Today's figure in the logistics federation's survey was
less than the median 56.5 estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of
16 economists. The decline was the first in eight months. The
output index dropped for the first time since May last year,
falling to 60.5 from 61.4 in December. The export-orders index
rose to 53.2 from 52.6.

                        'Crucial Stage'

    "China's economy is at a crucial stage of moving from
rebounding to stabilizing" with exports set to make a bigger
contribution to growth, said Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the
State Council Development and Research Center. "In the meantime,
companies may face a tougher environment with rising costs and
intensified competition."
    Companies benefiting from the nation's rebound include
Chongqing Changan Automobile Co., which said Jan. 27 that 2009
profit may have climbed more than 4000 percent on higher
sales and cost controls. China Railway Construction Co. said the
same day that profit likely increased more than 50 percent from
3.6 billion yuan a year earlier because of the nation's extra
infrastructure spending.
    The world's third-biggest economy may gain momentum this
quarter as exports surge 30 percent, making an interest-rate
increase more likely as inflation rises, according to China
International Capital Corp. China's 10.5 percent expansion this
year will compare with the global economy's 4.2 percent, Nomura
forecasts.

                          Faster Pace

    The nation's growth may accelerate to 12 percent this
quarter, triggering a rate increase as early as this month as
inflation rises to 3 percent, according to Sun Mingchun, an
economist at Nomura in Hong Kong.
   China is pursuing a "proactive fiscal policy" and
moderately loose monetary policy," Vice Premier Li Keqiang
reaffirmed in a speech on Jan. 28 at the World Economic Forum in
Davos, Switzerland.
    Such policies will lead to "huge markets for the world and
huge opportunities" for foreign companies, he said. Li's
comments reflected a pledge in November by Premier Wen Jiabao to
speed the shift from investment- and export-led growth to an
economy "driven by consumption, investment and exports in a
coordinated way."
    "We expect GDP to grow by 9 percent in 2010 and our next
revision is more likely to be upward," said Wang Tao, an
economist with UBS AG in Beijing. "We expect the government to
err on the side of keeping policy accommodative."
    The manufacturing index, released by the logistics
federation and the Beijing-based National Bureau of Statistics,
is based on replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing
executives at more than 730 companies in 20 industries. It
started in 2005.
    The official PMI surveys mainly large and state-owned
companies, while HSBC's sample of more than 400 is weighted
more towards smaller businesses and export-related companies,
said Xing Ziqiang, an economist at China International Capital
Corp. It began in 2004.

For Related News and Information:
China economic snapshot: ESNP CH <GO>
Most-read stories on China: MNI CHINA 1W <GO>
Most-read China economy stories: TNI CHECO MOSTREAD BN
<GO>
Top economic news: TOP ECO <GO>

--Kevin Hamlin, Li Yanping. Editors: Paul Panckhurst, John
McCluskey.

To contact the Bloomberg News staff on this story:
Kevin Hamlin in Beijing on +86-10-6649-7573 or
khamlin@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Chris Anstey at +65-6212-1130 or
canstey@bloomberg.net

(BN) Berkshire Surges After Being Picked to Join S&P 500

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Berkshire Surges After Being Picked to Join S&P 500 (Update1)
2010-01-27 13:34:29.327 GMT


    (Updates shares in the second paragraph, increase in value
of Buffett's stake in the fifth.)

By Andrew Frye
    Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway
Inc., which split its stock 50-for-1 last week, rose in early
trading after being picked to join the Standard & Poor's 500
Index yesterday.
    The Class B stock jumped $5.90, or 8.7 percent, to $73.90
at 8 a.m. in New York. The Omaha, Nebraska-based company will
replace Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. in the index after
completing the takeover of the railroad, S&P said in a statement
after the close of regular trading yesterday.
    Buffett split the Class B shares as part of the $26 billion
railroad acquisition. That brought Berkshire's stock below $75,
making shares available to a larger group of investors and
increasing the trading volume. Buffett told investors at a
Jan. 20 meeting that joining the S&P 500 may prompt index-
tracking fund managers to buy up to 7 percent of Berkshire.
    "There's going to be tremendous buying demand because of
this inclusion," said Glenn Tongue, a partner at T2 Partners
LLC, which owns Berkshire shares. "That's a catalyst for the
stock."
    Funds that track the S&P 500 have about $1 trillion in
assets, according to David Guarino, a spokesman for S&P in New
York. The early trading boosted the value of Buffett's personal
Berkshire stake, which includes Class A and Class B shares, by
$3.68 billion since yesterday's close. The company has gained 11
percent since the share split was approved on Jan. 20.

                     'Smarter Than Anyone'

    "There's Buffett, who's proven he's smarter than anyone
else," said Peter Sorrentino, a senior portfolio manager at
Cincinnati-based Huntington Asset Advisors, which oversees $12.8
billion. Berkshire "is a stock that belongs in the S&P 500."
    Buffett, the 79-year-old Berkshire chairman and chief
executive officer, is welcoming a broader base of investors to
the firm he built in the past four decades. Traders and equity
analysts have long paid Berkshire less attention than other
companies of similar size because of its elevated share price
and relatively stable investor base, led by Buffett who owns
roughly a quarter of the stock. Berkshire's Class B traded as
high as $3,340 the day before the split took effect.
    "I can't imagine another stock that's more deserving of
being in the S&P," said Michael Yoshikami, chief investment
strategist at YCMNet Advisors, which holds Berkshire shares.
"It will naturally have higher demand from the index funds."

                     Investing 'Forever'

    Berkshire's Class A shares advanced $9,249, or 9.1 percent,
to $111,000 late yesterday and hadn't traded by 8 a.m. today.
The firm, which was valued at about $158 billion as of
yesterday's close, has advanced more than 10-fold over the last
two decades.
    Buffett says his ideal investment horizon is "forever."
Berkshire is the biggest shareholder of Coca-Cola Co. and
American Express Co., and Buffett has held those stocks for more
than two decades even as both trade below their top prices in
the 1990s. He's recorded multibillion dollar gains for Berkshire
on investments in Capital Cities/ABC Inc. and PetroChina Inc.
    Index funds may give Berkshire shares stability, Buffett
told shareholders last week.
    "You've got a permanent stockholder for 6 or 7 percent of
your shares," Buffett said. "We like permanent shareholders.
That's exactly what we're looking for."

For Related News and Information:
Largest Class B shareholders: BRK/B US <Equity> PHDC1 <GO>
Berkshire price ratio analysis: BRK/A US <Equity> FA PRA <GO>
Table of largest Berkshire acquisitions: NSN KSJNB207SXKX <GO>
More on Buffett: BIO WARREN BUFFETT <GO>
Top deal news: DTOP <GO>

--With assistance from Lynn Thomasson, Rita Nazareth and Nikolaj
Gammeltoft in New York. Editors: Steve Geimann, Erik Holm.

To contact the reporter on this story:
Andrew Frye in New York at +1-212-617-4652 or
afrye@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Dan Kraut at +1-212-617-2432 or dkraut2@bloomberg.net.

--
-----

Bertrand Clausell Wanclik (GMAIL)
http://trendsniffer.blogspot.com
http://kuizine.blogspot.com
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/0/b55/631  
+55 11 9955-6390
__________________________________
Sent from São Paulo, Brasil
Stephen Leacock  - "I detest life-insurance agents: they always argue that I shall some day die, which is not so."

China’s GDP Growth Accelerates to Fastest Since 2007

sobe no boato e realiza no fato....

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

China's GDP Growth Accelerates to Fastest Since 2007 (Update4)
2010-01-21 07:12:00.247 GMT


    (Updates stocks in fifth paragraph.)

By Bloomberg News
    Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- China's growth accelerated to the
fastest pace since 2007 in the fourth quarter, capping Premier
Wen Jiabao's success in shielding the nation from the global
recession and adding pressure to rein in a surge in credit.
    Gross domestic product rose 10.7 percent from a year before,
more than the median forecast of 10.5 percent in a Bloomberg
News survey, a statistics bureau report showed in Beijing today.
Asset-price gains, particularly in property, are creating
problems for the government to guide the economy, Ma Jiantang,
who heads the bureau, told reporters after the release.
    The report stokes speculation the central bank will start
raising its benchmark interest rate and tighten restrictions on
the nation's lenders. The one-year swap rate, an indicator of
future changes in borrowing costs, climbed and the People's Bank
of China guided three-month bill yields higher for the second
time in two weeks.
    "Today's data suggest that tighter policy is just around
the corner," said Brian Jackson, a Hong Kong-based strategist
on emerging markets at Royal Bank of Canada. "Policy makers
will need to move soon to stop the economy from overheating,"
he said, forecasting officials will end an exchange-rate peg and
boost interest rates starting this quarter.
    Stocks across Asia were mixed today, with Japan's Nikkei
225 Average rising 1.2 percent at the close and Australia's
Standard & Poor's/ASX 200 Index falling 0.8%. The Shanghai
Composite Index was up 0.5 percent at 2:55 p.m. local time. The
one-year swap rate, the fixed cost for receiving a floating rate
for 12 months, rose three basis points to 2.32 percent.

                         Global Engine

    The world may again this year count on China as the biggest
engine of growth. The World Bank late yesterday raised its
forecast for the global expansion in 2010 to 2.7 percent from 2
percent in June, and predicted 9 percent growth in China, which
is poised to overtake Japan as No. 2 in GDP rankings this year.
    Mining company Rio Tinto Group reported a 49 percent jump
in fourth-quarter iron ore output on China's demand, while
companies ranging from Ford Motor Co. and Volkswagen AG to Hong
Kong billionaire Cheng Yu-tung's New World Department Store
China Ltd. are expanding in the nation.
    Consumer prices rose a more-than-forecast 1.9 percent in
December from a year earlier, the second straight gain after
nine declines. Producer prices climbed 1.7 percent, after
declining for the previous 12 months, today's report showed.

                       'Too Worrisome'

    "The inflation trend is too worrisome for the government
and we will continue to see policy tightened," said Isaac Meng,
senior economist at BNP Paribas SA in Beijing. Meng predicted
that the consumer-price inflation rate will exceed 3 percent in
coming months, and that the PBOC will increase banks' ratio of
assets held as reserves by 1.5 percentage points by July 1.
    The statement from the statistics bureau today mirrored a
Wen speech on Jan. 19 by omitting a pledge to keep monetary
policy "moderately loose." Ma, the head of the National Bureau
of Statistics, did cite that pledge in his press briefing.
    After last year overtaking the U.S. as the biggest auto
market and Germany as the biggest exporter, China is poised to
slot behind America this year as the second-largest economy.
China's GDP last year was 33.535 trillion yuan ($4.9 trillion),
the statistics bureau said today, almost the same as the World
Bank's 2008 estimate for Japan.

                   China Versus Japan

    Bank of America-Merrill Lynch said today that its estimates
showed China didn't surpass Japan last year. While Japan's
economy shrank, calculations are also affected by currency
fluctuations.
    According to Wen, policy makers' key tasks this year
include managing credit growth, controlling inflation and
countering property speculation.
    For the full year, GDP gained 8.7 percent, beating Wen's 8
percent target. Retail sales rose 16.9 percent after adjusting
for consumer price changes, the bureau said. The government
previously said that gain was the biggest since 1986.
    Wen this week indicated that he's putting more emphasis on
monthly data than year-on-year figures exaggerated by the
slowdown from late 2008. December retail sales of 1.26 trillion
yuan compared with a previously announced 1.13 trillion yuan in
November, indicating an increase of more than 11 percent.
    China will begin releasing month-on-month comparisons for
key economic indicators from March, Ma said today.

                    Sales, Production

    Sales quickened in December on a year-earlier basis,
climbing 17.5 percent, while industrial production increased at
a slower pace of 18.5 percent, today's report showed. Urban
fixed-asset investment jumped 30.5 percent in 2009, the
statistics bureau said.
   The economy's third straight quarterly acceleration
highlights risks that inflation may surge and asset bubbles form
after monetary policy committee member Fan Gang said in November
that growth of more than 10 percent is excessive. Banking
regulator Liu Mingkang confirmed yesterday that lending limits
exist for some banks and said credit growth will slow this year.
    Fourth-quarter economic growth was driven by an
unprecedented $586 billion stimulus package, subsidies for
consumer purchases and a credit-fueled investment boom. The
property market has rebounded and a 13-month slump in exports
ended last month.
    Managing the economy may become more difficult because of
so-called hot money pouring in from investors betting on the
nation's recovery and gains in the yuan, which has been held at
about 6.83 per dollar since July 2008 to help exporters. As much
as $30 billion a month of speculative capital may flow in during
the first half of this year, according to Bank of America-
Merrill Lynch.

                         Bubble Concern

    China is already a bubble, 62 percent of investors and
analysts said in a quarterly Bloomberg survey of subscribers.
    Liu, the banking regulator, said yesterday in Hong Kong
that banks will extend 7.5 trillion yuan of loans this year,
about 22 percent less than last year's unprecedented 9.59
trillion yuan. The central bank this month ordered lenders to
set aside a larger proportion of deposits as reserves and has
guided bill yields higher after 2010 began with a surge in
lending.
    China's 2009 GDP growth rate was down from 9.6 percent in
the previous year. The statistics bureau today revised its
estimate of growth in the third quarter of 2009 to 9.1 percent
from 8.9 percent. It changed the first-quarter figure to 6.2
percent from 6.1 percent.

For Related News and Information:
Most-read stories on China: MNI CHINA 1W <GO>
Most-read China economy stories: TNI CHECO MOSTREAD BN <GO>
For top economic news: TOP ECO <GO>
For top China news: TOP CHINA <GO>
Credit crunch page: WCC <GO>
Government relief programs: GGRP <GO>

--Li Yanping, Kevin Hamlin, Jay Wang. Editors: Paul Panckhurst,
Russell Ward.

To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story:
Li Yanping in Beijing at +86-10-6649-7568 or
yli16@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Chris Anstey at +81-3-3201-7553 or
canstey@bloomberg.net

U.S. Economy: Leading Indicators Index Rise More Than Expected 7 of 10

UP

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

U.S. Economy: Leading Indicators Index Rise More Than Forecast
2010-01-21 16:59:01.304 GMT


By Timothy R. Homan
    Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The index of U.S. leading
indicators rose more than anticipated in December, a sign the
economy will keep growing through the first half of the year.
    The New York-based Conference Board's gauge of the outlook
for the next three to six months climbed 1.1 percent, the most
in three months, after increasing 1 percent in November. The
gain exceeded the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey
for a 0.7 percent rise. Another report showed Philadelphia-area
manufacturing expanded in January for a fifth straight month.
    Fewer firings, rising stock prices and Federal Reserve
efforts to keep interest rates low propelled the leading index,
while growth in exports and inventories have spurred
production. Sustained demand and faster economic growth will
hinge on employment gains that have yet to materialize.
    "The economic recovery still has momentum," said Tim
Quinlan, an economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in
Charlotte, North Carolina, who correctly forecast the December
gain. "Right now, the linchpin is confidence. Both businesses
and consumers need to feel like it's a worthwhile thing to
start spending money again."
    U.S. stocks slumped for a second day as President Barack
Obama proposed limiting the size and trading activities of
financial institutions and on concern China will take more
steps to cool off its economy. Standard & Poor's 500 Index
dropped 1.8 percent to 1,118.14at 11:57 a.m. in New York.
Treasury securities rose.
    China's economy expanded from October through December at
the fastest pace since 2007, the statistics bureau in Beijing
reported. Such growth is helping drive exports and boost sales
for U.S. factories.

                   Manufacturing Expansion

    Manufacturing in the Philadelphia area grew in January,
corroborating figures last week showing expansion at factories
in the New York region. The Fed Bank of Philadelphia's general
economic index of manufacturing in the area fell to 15.2 this
month from 22.5 in December.
    The index was less than the 18 reading economists had
expected, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg
survey. Figures greater than zero signal growth. The report
showed a measure of employment rose to the highest level in
almost two years.
    Labor Department figures today showed jobless claims
unexpectedly increased to 482,000 last week from 446,000 a week
earlier, reflecting a backlog of applications from the year-end
holidays.
    Economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected the leading
indicators index would increase 0.7 percent from a previously
reported 0.9 percent gain in November, according to the median
of 58 estimates. Forecasts for the index, which has increased
nine straight months, ranged from gains of 0.3 percent to 1.1
percent.

                   Eight Indicators Rise

    Eight of the 10 indicators in the leading index
contributed to the increase, led by the difference between
long-term and short-term interest rates, building permits and a
drop in jobless claims in December. None of the indicators fell
during the month.
    The Conference Board's index of coincident indicators, a
gauge of current economic activity, rose 0.1 percent in
December for a third month. The index tracks payrolls, incomes,
sales and production, the measures used by the National Bureau
of Economic Research to determine the beginning and end of U.S.
recessions.
    The world's largest economy will probably expand at a 2.7
percent annual pace from January through March and at a 2.9
percent rate in the following quarter, according to the median
estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg earlier this
month.

                     Darda Optimistic

    Michael Darda, chief economist at MKM Partners LP in
Greenwich, Connecticut, is more optimistic. He said in an
interview with Bloomberg Radio today that the economy will
expand 4 percent this year, mirroring rebounds from recessions
in the 1970s and 1980s.
    Darda said growth will be ignited by the "initial spark"
from a recovery in capital markets and corporate earnings, as
well as the rebuilding of inventories. The job market will
recover more slowly, with unemployment falling to about 9
percent by the end of this year from 10 percent in December, he
said.
    Seven of 10 indicators for the leading index are known
ahead of time: stock prices, jobless claims, building permits,
consumer expectations, the yield curve, factory hours and
supplier delivery times.
    Jobless claims averaged 460,250 in December, down from
480,750 a month earlier. U.S. stocks continued to rise last
month as reports suggested the economy was improving. The S&P
500 averaged 1,110.38 in December, compared with 1,088.07 the
previous month. The index reached the highest closing level in
14 months on Dec. 28.

                     Building Permits

    Applications for building permits rose 11 percent to a
653,000 annual rate last month, the most since October 2008,
the Commerce Department said yesterday.
    "We are seeing stabilization in the economy," Brian
Moynihan, chief executive of Bank of America Corp., said
yesterday in an interview. The head of the largest U.S. lender,
said the economy is still "fragile."
    Reiterating their pledge to keep interest rates
"exceptionally low" for "an extended period," Fed policy
makers last month said the recovery faced hurdles.
    The central bankers, who next meet Jan. 26-27 in
Washington, will keep their target for overnight lending among
banks unchanged through September before raising it by half a
point in the fourth quarter, according to the median forecast
of economists surveyed this month. The Fed has kept the
benchmark rate near zero since December 2008.

For Related News and Information:
Search for stories on the U.S. economy: NI USECO <GO>
Stories on manufacturing: TNI US MAC <GO>
Stories on the Federal Reserve: NI FED BN <GO>
Bloomberg News about companies' earnings: TNI COS ERN BN <GO>
U.S. economy forecasts: OUTL US <GO>
U.S. GDP figures: GDP US <GO>

--With assistance from Scott Lanman and Vincent Del Giudice in
Washington, Rachel Layne in Boston, Thomas Keene in New York
and
Will Daley in Chicago. Editors: Vince Golle, Carlos Torres

To contact the reporter on this story:
Timothy R. Homan in Washington at +1-202-624-1961 or
thoman1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Christopher Wellisz at +1-202-624-1862 or
cwellisz@bloomberg.net

Petrobras stop 35 compra + a 37

PETR4 35 stop 37 +

Le Monde.fr : Bonne année 2010 !

Cette information du Monde.fr vous est envoyée par bwanclik@hotmail.com.



bwanclik@hotmail.com

---

Visuel interactif

Bonne année 2010 !

LEMONDE.FR | 18.12.09 | 09h28  .  Mis à jour le 18.12.09 | 09h28

La carte de voeux du Monde.fr

Vous pouvez accéder à ce visuel interactif en ligne sur lemonde.fr.
http://www.lemonde.fr/a-la-une/visuel/2009/12/18/bonne-annee-2010_1282446_3208.html

Liens publicitaires

Voyages : Ask a déjà trouvé les prix cassés
Ask a trouvé pour vous toutes les infos et tous les sites pour vos bons plans voyages. Dernière minute, séjours dégriffés, petits prix et occases à ne pas manquer sont au programme !

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---

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Droits de reproduction et de diffusion réservés

Euro vs dollar

NY Times Article: Contrarian Investor Sees Economic Crash in China

January 8, 2010
Contrarian Investor Sees Economic Crash in China
By DAVID BARBOZA

SHANGHAI — James S. Chanos built one of the largest fortunes on Wall Street by foreseeing the collapse of Enron and other highflying companies whose stories were too good to be true.

Now Mr. Chanos, a wealthy hedge fund investor, is working to bust the myth of the biggest conglomerate of all: China Inc.

As most of the world bets on China to help lift the global economy out of recession, Mr. Chanos is warning that China's hyperstimulated economy is headed for a crash, rather than the sustained boom that most economists predict. Its surging real estate sector, buoyed by a flood of speculative capital, looks like "Dubai times 1,000 — or worse," he frets. He even suspects that Beijing is cooking its books, faking, among other things, its eye-popping growth rates of more than 8 percent.

"Bubbles are best identified by credit excesses, not valuation excesses," he said in a recent appearance on CNBC. "And there's no bigger credit excess than in China." He is planning a speech later this month at the University of Oxford to drive home his point.

As America's pre-eminent short-seller — he bets big money that companies' strategies will fail — Mr. Chanos's narrative runs counter to the prevailing wisdom on China. Most economists and governments expect Chinese growth momentum to continue this year, buoyed by what remains of a $586 billion government stimulus program that began last year, meant to lift exports and consumption among Chinese consumers.

Still, betting against China will not be easy. Because foreigners are restricted from investing in stocks listed inside China, Mr. Chanos has said he is searching for other ways to make his bets, including focusing on construction- and infrastructure-related companies that sell cement, coal, steel and iron ore.

Mr. Chanos, 51, whose hedge fund, Kynikos Associates, based in New York, has $6 billion under management, is hardly the only skeptic on China. But he is certainly the most prominent and vocal.

For all his record of prescience — in addition to predicting Enron's demise, he also spotted the looming problems of Tyco International, the Boston Market restaurant chain and, more recently, home builders and some of the world's biggest banks — his detractors say that he knows little or nothing about China or its economy and that his bearish calls should be ignored.

"I find it interesting that people who couldn't spell China 10 years ago are now experts on China," said Jim Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros and now lives in Singapore. "China is not in a bubble."

Colleagues acknowledge that Mr. Chanos began studying China's economy in earnest only last summer and sent out e-mail messages seeking expert opinion.

But he is tagging along with the bears, who see mounting evidence that China's stimulus package and aggressive bank lending are creating artificial demand, raising the risk of a wave of nonperforming loans.

"In China, he seems to see the excesses, to the third and fourth power, that he's been tilting against all these decades," said Jim Grant, a longtime friend and the editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, who is also bearish on China. "He homes in on the excesses of the markets and profits from them. That's been his stock and trade."

Mr. Chanos declined to be interviewed, citing his continuing research on China. But he has already been spreading the view that the China miracle is blinding investors to the risk that the country is producing far too much.

"The Chinese," he warned in an interview in November with Politico.com, "are in danger of producing huge quantities of goods and products that they will be unable to sell."

In December, he appeared on CNBC to discuss how he had already begun taking short positions, hoping to profit from a China collapse.

In recent months, a growing number of analysts, and some Chinese officials, have also warned that asset bubbles might emerge in China.

The nation's huge stimulus program and record bank lending, estimated to have doubled last year from 2008, pumped billions of dollars into the economy, reigniting growth.

But many analysts now say that money, along with huge foreign inflows of "speculative capital," has been funneled into the stock and real estate markets.

A result, they say, has been soaring prices and a resumption of the building boom that was under way in early 2008 — one that Mr. Chanos and others have called wasteful and overdone.

"It's going to be a bust," said Gordon G. Chang, whose book, "The Coming Collapse of China" (Random House), warned in 2001 of such a crash.

Friends and colleagues say Mr. Chanos is comfortable betting against the crowd — even if that crowd includes the likes of Warren E. Buffett and Wilbur L. Ross Jr., two other towering figures of the investment world.

A contrarian by nature, Mr. Chanos researches companies, pores over public filings to sift out clues to fraud and deceptive accounting, and then decides whether a stock is overvalued and ready for a fall. He has a staff of 26 in the firm's offices in New York and London, searching for other China-related information.

"His record is impressive," said Byron R. Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Services. "He's no fly-by-night charlatan. And I'm bullish on China."

Mr. Chanos grew up in Milwaukee, one of three sons born to the owners of a chain of dry cleaners. At Yale, he was a pre-med student before switching to economics because of what he described as a passionate interest in the way markets operate.

His guiding philosophy was discovered in a book called "The Contrarian Investor," according to an account of his life in "The Smartest Guys in the Room," a book that chronicled Enron's rise and downfall.

After college, he went to Wall Street, where he worked at a series of brokerage houses before starting his own firm in 1985, out of what he later said was frustration with the way Wall Street brokers promoted stocks.

At Kynikos Associates, he created a firm focused on betting on falling stock prices. His theories are summed up in testimony he gave to the House Committee on Energy and Commerce in 2002, after the Enron debacle. His firm, he said, looks for companies that appear to have overstated earnings, like Enron; were victims of a flawed business plan, like many Internet firms; or have been engaged in "outright fraud."

That short-sellers are held in low regard by some on Wall Street, as well as Main Street, has long troubled him.

Short-sellers were blamed for intensifying market sell-offs in the fall 2008, before the practice was temporarily banned. Regulators are now trying to decide whether to restrict the practice.

Mr. Chanos often responds to critics of short-selling by pointing to the critical role they played in identifying problems at Enron, Boston Market and other "financial disasters" over the years.

"They are often the ones wearing the white hats when it comes to looking for and identifying the bad guys," he has said.

Feliz 2010

Que 2010 seja o inicio do ciclo 2010 - 2016.

Talvez estejamos prestes a viver no maior e melhor periodo de aceleraçao da historia para o Brasil desde o final dos anos 70.

Vamos conferir e desfrutar....feliz 2010!!!com muita saude, felicidade e paz!!!!

(BN) Mobius Says Dubai Pledge Is ‘Giant Step,’ Worst Over

Mobius Says Dubai Pledge Is 'Giant Step,' Worst Over 
2009-12-14 17:08:33.945 GMT


    (Updates today's trading in final paragraph.)

By Michael Patterson
    Dec. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Dubai's pledge to adopt global
standards on transparency and creditor protection is a "giant
step in the right direction" and the worst of the emirate's
debt crisis is over, investor Mark Mobius said.
    "They said that going forward they wanted to become more
transparent and keep people fully informed," Mobius, who
oversees more than $30 billion as chairman of Templeton Asset
Management Ltd., said in a phone interview from Riyadh today.
"That is a very giant step in the right direction. By making
that statement, Dubai will be able to have a foremost position
here in the Middle East."
    The emirate said it's committed to "transparency, good
governance and market principles" in a statement today that
announced a new bankruptcy law and a $10 billion bailout of
state-owned company Dubai World. Dubai's benchmark equity index
surged the most in 14 months, while the $3.52 billion bond of
state-controlled Nakheel PJSC more than doubled to 109.5 cents
on the dollar after the statement.
    Prices for Nakheel's Islamic bond maturing today had
tumbled to as low as 42 cents after Dubai's Nov. 25 announcement
that Dubai World, the parent of Nakheel, would seek to delay
repayments. Investors' reaction was "blind panic" because of
uncertainty about the size of the restructuring and the
government's role, Abdulrahman Al Saleh, director general of
Dubai's Department of Finance, said on Dec. 10.

                     Dubai Transformation

    "In Dubai we are not good in publicizing what we are doing
as much as we are good in doing it," Al Saleh said during a
conference at the Dubai School of Government.
    Dubai World said on Dec. 1 it was in talks to restructure
less than half of its $59 billion of liabilities, spurring a
rally in global equities and a plunge in prices of credit-
default swaps that insure the debt of Dubai's government.
    "Some of these debts still have to be restructured," said
Mobius. "But the worst is over. To the degree that Dubai really
emphasizes transparency and good corporate governance, they can
really become a big leader, not only in the Middle East but
globally."
    Dubai, which borrowed about $80 billion in a four-year
construction boom to transform its economy into a regional
tourism and financial hub, suffered the world's steepest
property slump in the first global recession since World War II.

                     'Good Opportunities'

    Dubai World will use the bailout money from Abu Dhabi, the
wealthiest of the seven sheikdoms that comprise the United Arab
Emirates, to repay the Nakheel debt that comes due today. The
rest will cover Dubai World's interest and operating costs until
the company reaches a standstill agreement with its creditors,
Dubai's government said in the statement.
    Mobius said he's traveling to Dubai tomorrow to meet with
companies and that there are "very good opportunities" in the
emirate's stock market for long-term investors. Templeton owns
shares of Emaar Properties PJSC, the developer of the world's
tallest tower in Dubai, and DP World Ltd., the Middle East's
biggest port operator, Mobius said.
    Shares of Emaar and DP World jumped 15 percent today,
leading a 10 percent rally in the Dubai Financial Market General
Index. Abu Dhabi's ADX General Index added 7.9 percent for the
steepest rally since May 2006. The MSCI AC World Index of shares
in advanced and developing nations increased 0.7 percent at
11:58 a.m. in New York.

--With assistance from Camilla Hall and Arif Sharif in Dubai.
Editors: Gavin Serkin, Tim Farrand

To contact the reporters on this story:
Michael Patterson in London at +44-20-7073-3102 or
mpatterson10@bloomberg.net;

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Gavin Serkin at +44-20-7673-2467 or gserkin@bloomberg.net.

China output, exports improve as inflation returns - MarketWatch

China output, exports improve as inflation returns - MarketWatch

Posted using ShareThis

China output, exports improve as inflation returns - MarketWatch

China output, exports improve as inflation returns - MarketWatch

Posted using ShareThis

(BN) Obama Accepts Nobel, Says He Understands Cost of War

Obama Accepts Nobel, Says He Understands Cost of War (Update3)
2009-12-10 15:22:40.62 GMT


    (Adds Obama remarks on climate in 19th, 20th paragraphs.)

By Julianna Goldman
    Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama said he was
humbled to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize and used his
acceptance speech to defend the concept of a "just war" that
is necessary to further the cause of freedom and human rights.
    "Compared to some of the giants of history who have
received this prize -- Schweitzer and King; Marshall and Mandela
-- my accomplishments are slight," he said during the Nobel
ceremony in Oslo. "But perhaps the most profound issue
surrounding my receipt of this prize is the fact that I am the
commander-in-chief of a nation in the midst of two wars."
    Obama said he has an "acute sense" of the price of
military conflict at a time when he is deploying thousands of
troops into battle. "Some will kill. Some will be killed," he
said.
    The Nobel ceremony in Oslo comes a little more than a week
after the president announced deployment of 30,000 more U.S.
troops to Afghanistan. He also is winding down the U.S. military
commitment in Iraq even as terrorist violence continues.
    "I do not bring with me today a definitive solution to the
problems of war," Obama said. "We must begin by acknowledging
the hard truth that we will not eradicate violent conflict in
our lifetimes."
    While expressing appreciation for the non-violent creed
preached by Martin Luther King Jr. and Mahatma Gandhi, Obama
said that as U.S. leader he can't "be guided by their examples
alone."

                       Necessary Force

    "I face the world as it is, and cannot stand idle in the
face of threats to the American people," Obama said.
Negotiations didn't stop Adolf Hitler and won't stop al-Qaeda,
he said. "To say that force is sometimes necessary is not a
call to cynicism -- it is a recognition of history; the
imperfections of man and the limits of reason."
    There are times and events where the use of military force
is "not only necessary but morally justified," he said.
    Among recent conflicts, Obama cited the military
intervention in the Balkans, the first Gulf War to drive Iraqi
armed forces under Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait and the U.S.-led
overthrow of the Taliban in Afghanistan after the Sept. 11
attacks. He didn't mention the 2003 invasion of Iraq to topple
Hussein that was undertaken by his predecessor, former President
George W. Bush.
    When war is waged, it must be done under universal
standards of conduct, even when the enemy doesn't follow the
same code, Obama said.

                    Standards for Conflict

    "I, like any head of state, reserve the right to act
unilaterally if necessary to defend my nation," he said.
"Nevertheless, I am convinced that adhering to standards
strengthens those who do, and isolates -- and weakens -- those
who don't."
    Obama told his audience there are three ways to "build a
just and lasting peace." They include sanctions that "exact a
real price;" the promotion of human rights; diplomacy and
engagement; and economic security and opportunity.
    Security doesn't exist, he said, "where human beings do
not have access to enough food, or clean water, or the medicine
they need to survive. "The absence of hope can rot a society
from within."
    Obama also said the world must come together to confront
climate change.
   "There is little scientific dispute that if we do nothing,
we will face more drought, famine and mass displacement that
will fuel more conflict for decades," Obama said.

                     'Cooperative Climate'

    While Obama is the third sitting U.S. president to win the
prize, he's the first to win it so early in his term. Former
presidents Theodore Roosevelt won in 1906 and Woodrow Wilson won
in 1919. Former President Jimmy Carter won in 2002 and former
Vice President Al Gore received it in 2007, both after leaving
office.
    Thorbjoern Jagland, chairman of the five-member Nobel
committee, said the awarding of the Peace Prize this year "must
be viewed in the light of the prevailing situation in the world,
with great tension, numerous wars, unresolved conflicts and
confrontations on many fronts."
    Obama "has been trying to create a more cooperative
climate which can help reverse the present trend," Jagland said
in the text of his remarks at the ceremony. "It is now, today,
that we have the opportunity to support President Obama's ideas.
This year's prize is indeed a call for action to all of us."
    The president arrived in Oslo early today and went directly
to the Nobel Institute where he signed a guest book in a room
with walls covered with photographs of former laureates
including slain civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr.
    The president said he and first lady Michelle Obama were
touched by the wall of pictures.
    "When Dr. King won his prize, it had a galvanizing effect
around the world, but also lifted his stature in the United
States in a way that allowed him to be more effective," Obama
said.

For Related News and Information:
For TOP news TOP <GO>
For Nobel news NI NOBEL <GO>

--With assistance from Marianne Stigset in Oslo and Roger
Runningen in Washington. Editors: Joe Sobczyk, Brigitte
Greenberg.

To contact the reporter on this story:
Julianna Goldman in Washington at +1-202-654-4304 or
jgoldman6@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Jim Kirk at +1-202-654-4315 or
jkirk12@bloomberg.net;

--
-----

Bertrand Clausell Wanclik (GMAIL)
http://trendsniffer.blogspot.com
http://kuizine.blogspot.com
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/0/b55/631  
+55 11 9955-6390
__________________________________
Sent from São Paulo, Brasil
Ted Turner  - "Sports is like a war without the killing."

O vilão : Crude Oil

(BN) Gold Isn’t the Best Protection Against Inflation:

It's an option of diversification.

Brains, managing funds are a better inflation hedge...

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Gold Isn't the Best Protection Against Inflation: Matthew Lynn
2009-12-08 00:01:00.9 GMT


Commentary by Matthew Lynn
    Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Economic chaos? The dollar crumbling?
Central banks printing money like crazy? Probably the only real
surprise about the surge in gold prices over the last few months
is that it took so long to arrive.
    Last week gold touched an all-time high of $1,227.50. Back
in September it was still less than $1,000. Chalk that up as a
victory for the gold bugs.
    This week, the price is heading down, dropping below
$1,200. Chalk that up as a victory for the gold skeptics, who
regularly point out that the metal's value is just a sentimental
memory from a long-buried era.
    In reality, while investors are right to be nervous about
inflation, maybe they are catching on that it's wrong to see
gold as the best hedge against a general rise in prices. There
are plenty of alternatives: equities, property, oil, luxuries or
private-equity funds should prove just as effective a way of
shielding yourself.
    It isn't hard to figure out why investors had been getting
interested in gold again. Central banks are pumping freshly
minted money into the system. A few hundred years of economic
history says that eventually this will lead to inflation. It
might be next year, or the year after. It doesn't make much
difference -- it will arrive sooner or later, and you'll need to
get your portfolio in shape before it does.

                         Alloyed Record

    But gold? Whether it's a hedge against inflation depends on
where you want to start drawing the graph. Back in 2002, gold
was less than $300. If you bought it then, you'd certainly have
protected yourself against rising prices -- and made a fat
profit as well. The 1990s were a different story. Gold started
that decade at around $400, and ended it below $300. Not so
great. As for the 1980s, forget it: gold lost almost half its
value during that decade.
    In reality, gold has a mixed record. Nor should you be
surprised about that. A few industrial uses, and jewelry, aside,
gold is valuable only insofar as other investors think it is
valuable. By itself it isn't necessarily worth anything. Nor
does it generate interest or dividends. If the price doesn't
rise, you don't get anything.
    There isn't much chance, either, of the world's central
banks making their currencies convertible into gold once again.
They would bankrupt their governments in the process. It may
secure itself a greater role as a reserve asset. But the gold
standard isn't about to be re-imposed.
    In truth, while gold may have a role in protecting against
inflation, there are plenty of alternatives. Here are five you
should be thinking about -- particularly when you bear in mind
that gold is already close to an all-time high.

                      Real-Estate Rebound

    One, property. The price of real estate won't always move
exactly in line with inflation. And you might want to steer
clear of the markets where there has yet to be much of a retreat
from the exuberant prices of 2006 and 2007. Even so, if there is
more money chasing a static amount of land and buildings, prices
are going to rise.
    Two, oil. They used to call it black gold and maybe they
should again. It has already stopped being just stuff we put in
our cars, and use to heat houses, and become an investment asset
in itself. How else can we explain the fact that oil has ticked
up past $70 a barrel even while we're living through the worst
global recession since World War II? Oil is already, in effect,
an alternative to gold. The one difference is that you can put
it in your car and drive somewhere -- making it far more useful
than stuff good for little more than dental fillings and
trinkets to wear around your neck.

                         Stock Picking

    Three, equities. Moderate, persistent inflation in the 3
percent range is good for the kind of big, blue-chip companies
that dominate the major global stock markets. They can edge up
prices along with everyone else. And they can usually get away
with increasing wages just a bit less than inflation, so cutting
labor costs as well -- particularly as unions are far less
powerful than they used to be. In those circumstances, the
shareholders should do fine -- and their equities will more than
keep up with rising prices.
    Four, luxury goods and collectibles. Once inflation takes
off, it is only real assets that will hold their value --
everything else is just paper, and that will be of dwindling
use. Assets don't get much more real than historic art, valuable
antiques, vintage automobiles or fine wines. They should start
to soar in price as the mega-rich realize they are among the few
ways to protect wealth. And, heck, if you get it wrong, you can
always hang them on the wall, or drink them.
    Five, private-equity funds. This one might not be obvious.
But a leveraged buyout firm buys well-established companies, in
basic industries, and then loads them up with lots of debt,
while hanging on to a little bit of equity. Inflation will
effectively wipe out all that debt. The result? The equity that
is left over will be worth far more.

                         Rate Squeeze

    Of course, none of these will necessarily work in the long-
term. The only real way to control inflation once it gets
started is to raise interest rates high enough to create a deep
recession, and so choke off rising prices. That's what central
bankers did in the late 1970s and early 1980s, and may do again
sometime around 2015 or 2020. Once that happens, you'll need to
think again -- you might not want to be in property or equities.
    That, however, is some way off. As we move into the early
stages of an inflationary era, those five assets should do at
least as well as gold, if not better.

     (Matthew Lynn is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions
expressed are his own.)

    Click on "Send Comment" in the sidebar display to send a
letter to the editor.

For Related News and Information:
To read more columns by Matthew Lynn: NI LYNN <GO>
More commentaries: OPED <GO>
For top commodities news: CTOP <GO>
For news on gold: NI GLD <GO>

--Editors: James Greiff, Laurence Arnold.

To contact the writer of this column:
Matthew Lynn in London at +44-20-330-7171 or
matthewlynn@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this column:
James Greiff at +1-212-617-5801 or jgreiff@bloomberg.net

beira o espatafurdio

__________________________________
Sent from São Paulo, Brasil
Marie von Ebner-Eschenbach  - "Even a stopped clock is right twice a day."

Excelente

SPDJFUT : trending higher

Higher and higher

Euro channel

Sent from São Paulo, Brasil
Jonathan Swift  - "May you live every day of your life."

Crude dentro do seu canal de alta

           Crude dentro do seu canal de alta

__________________________________
Sent from São Paulo, Brasil
Marie von Ebner-Eschenbach  - "Even a stopped clock is right twice a day."

(BN) One Bad Twitter ‘Tweet’ Can Cost 30 Customers, Survey Shows

One Bad Twitter 'Tweet' Can Cost 30 Customers, Survey Shows
2009-11-26 00:00:01.2 GMT


By Sarah Shannon
    Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- A negative review or comment on the
Twitter, Facebook or Youtube Web sites can lose companies as
many as 30 customers, according to a survey by Convergys Corp.
    A customer review on one of the sites reaches an average
audience of 45 people, two-thirds of whom would avoid or
completely stop doing business with a company they heard bad
things about, Convergys said, citing its own survey.
    Web and video posts are feeding a new form of "silent
attrition, where customers switch companies without complaining
directly," Frank Sherlock, senior vice president at Cincinnati-
based Convergys, said at a conference in London yesterday.
    The provider of customer call-center services commissioned
a survey of 2,000 British consumers, one in three of whom said
they put their bad customer experiences on the Internet.
    The influence of a post on Youtube, the world's most
popular video-sharing site which is owned by Google Inc., can
have a "definitive measurable impact," Sherlock said.

For Related News and Information:
Top retail news: RTOP <GO>
More on social networking: NSE SOCIAL NETWORKING <GO>

--Editors: Paul Jarvis, Keith Campbell.

To contact the reporter on this story:
Sarah Shannon in London at +44-20-7073-3262 or
sshannon4@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Keith Campbell at +44-20-7073-3829 or k.campbell@bloomberg.net.

New gold bugs making gold investments mainstream

"The original gold bugs have been fans of the metal for decades. They yearn for the past, when the so-called Gold Standard was the central cog of the world's currency system. A similar system known as the Bretton Woods Agreement tied the U.S. dollar, and all currencies pegged to the dollar, to the price of gold. When the system broke down in 1971, there was no longer a limit on the amount of money that could be printed by governments.

Gold bugs hung on grimly as prices dropped in the '80s and '90s amid quelled inflation and roaring stock markets. But gold prices began climbing at the start of this decade, when the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to revive the U.S. economy in the wake of the dot-com bust.

That helped fuel a housing and credit market boom that came crashing down last year, triggering a global financial crisis and the worst recession since the Great Depression." 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-gold-bugs-taking-gold-mainstream-2009-11-23

LIFE IS A ROLLERCOASTER OF EMOTIONS AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOKS, ESPECIALLY REGARDING COMMODITIES........report from SocGen.

LIFE IS A ROLLERCOASTER OF EMOTIONS AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOKS, ESPECIALLY REGARDING COMMODITIES........
YESTERDAY, THE "LONG-TERM LOW INTEREST RATES SENARIO" POINTED TO COMMODITIES BEING AN 'ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENT' OPTION BUT JUST INCASE........

FROM today's edition of 'THE DAILY TELEGRAPH' - UK newspaper.
Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for potential 'global
collapse'
Société Générale has advised clients to be ready for a possible "global
economic collapse" over the next two years, mapping a strategy of defensive
investments to avoid wealth destruction.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Published: 6:12PM GMT 18 Nov 2009
Comments 44 | Comment on this article

(Embedded image moved to file: pic27027.jpg)A bullet train speeding past
Mount Fuji in Fuji city, west of Tokyo, Japan

Explosion of debt: Japan's public debt could reach as much as 270pc of GDP
in the next two years. A bullet train is pictured speeding past Mount Fuji
in Fuji city, west of Tokyo Photo: Reuters
In a report entitled "Worst-case debt scenario", the bank's asset team said
state rescue packages over the last year have merely transferred private
liabilities onto sagging sovereign shoulders, creating a fresh set of
problems.
Overall debt is still far too high in almost all rich economies as a share
of GDP (350pc in the US), whether public or private. It must be reduced by
the hard slog of "deleveraging", for years.

 Related Articles
'Debt levels risk another crisis'
"As yet, nobody can say with any certainty whether we have in fact escaped
the prospect of a global economic collapse," said the 68-page report,
headed by asset chief Daniel Fermon. It is an exploration of the dangers,
not a forecast.
Under the French bank's "Bear Case" scenario (the gloomiest of three
possible outcomes), the dollar would slide further and global equities
would retest the March lows. Property prices would tumble again. Oil would
fall back to $50 in 2010.
Governments have already shot their fiscal bolts. Even without fresh
spending, public debt would explode within two years to 105pc of GDP in the
UK, 125pc in the US and the eurozone, and 270pc in Japan. Worldwide state
debt would reach $45 trillion, up two-and-a-half times in a decade.
(UK figures look low because debt started from a low base. Mr Ferman said
the UK would converge with Europe at 130pc of GDP by 2015 under the bear
case).
The underlying debt burden is greater than it was after the Second World
War, when nominal levels looked similar. Ageing populations will make it
harder to erode debt through growth. "High public debt looks entirely
unsustainable in the long run. We have almost reached a point of no return
for government debt," it said.
Inflating debt away might be seen by some governments as a lesser of evils.
If so, gold would go "up, and up, and up" as the only safe haven from fiat
paper money. Private debt is also crippling. Even if the US savings rate
stabilises at 7pc, and all of it is used to pay down debt, it will still
take nine years for households to reduce debt/income ratios to the safe
levels of the 1980s.
The bank said the current crisis displays "compelling similarities" with
Japan during its Lost Decade (or two), with a big difference: Japan was
able to stay afloat by exporting into a robust global economy and by
letting the yen fall. It is not possible for half the world to pursue this
strategy at the same time.
SocGen advises bears to sell the dollar and to "short" cyclical equities
such as technology, auto, and travel to avoid being caught in the "inherent
deflationary spiral". Emerging markets would not be spared. Paradoxically,
they are more leveraged to the US growth than Wall Street itself. Farm
commodities would hold up well, led by sugar.
Mr Fermon said junk bonds would lose 31pc of their value in 2010 alone.
However, sovereign bonds would "generate turbo-charged returns" mimicking
the secular slide in yields seen in Japan as the slump ground on. At one
point Japan's 10-year yield dropped to 0.40pc. The Fed would hold down
yields by purchasing more bonds. The European Central Bank would do less,
for political reasons.
SocGen's case for buying sovereign bonds is controversial. A number of
funds doubt whether the Japan scenario will be repeated, not least because
Tokyo itself may be on the cusp of a debt compound crisis.
Mr Fermon said his report had electrified clients on both sides of the
Atlantic. "Everybody wants to know what the impact will be. A lot of hedge
funds and bankers are worried," he said.

Other reason that commodities are looking a better long-term alternative investment?

14:15 18Nov09 DJN-DJ FED'S BULLARD: POSSIBLE FED WON'T HIKE RATES UNTIL
2012
14:15 18Nov09 DJN-DJ FED'S BULLARD: MARKET FOCUS ON FED FUNDS RATE
'DISAPPOINTING'
14:15 18Nov09 DJN-DJ BULLARD: MARKETS SHOULD FOCUS ON ALL ASPECTS OF FED
STIMULUS
14:15 18Nov09 DJN-DJ BULLARD: FED MINDFUL OF KEEPING RATES TOO LOW FOR TOO
LONG
14:15 18Nov09 DJN-DJ BULLARD:FED LIQUIDITY PROGRAMS UNLIKELY TO BE
INFLATION SOURCE
14:15 18Nov09 DJN-DJ BULLARD: FED'S MAIN CHALLENGE IS MANAGING ASSET BUYING
EFFORTS
14:15 18Nov09 DJN-DJ BULLARD: ECONOMY AIDED BY STABILIZING INCOME, HOUSING
MARKET
14:15 18Nov09 DJN-DJ BULLARD: GLOBAL GROWTH AIDING US ECONOMIC RECOVERY
14:15 18Nov09 DJN-DJ BULLARD: INFLATION LOW, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER
14:15 18Nov09 DJN-DJ BULLARD: LABOR MARKET STILL WEAK, BUT LOSSES
MODERATING
14:15 18Nov09 DJN-DJ BULLARD: TOO-BIG-TO-FAIL ISSUES MUST BE ADDRESSED
14:15 18Nov09 DJN-DJ Fed's Bullard: Possible Fed Won't Hike Rates Until
2012

  By Michael S. Derby
  Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

   NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--If the Federal Reserve sticks to the pattern set
after
the last two recessions, interest rates will remain unchanged until 2012, a
Federal Reserve official said Wednesday.
   Assuming the recession ended this summer, Federal Reserve Bank of St.
Louis
President James Bullard said interest rate hikes could lie well into the
future,
assuming the central bank sticks to raising rates between two-and-a-half to
three
years after the end of a downturn, as it did for the past two recessions.
   But Bullard cautioned that pattern isn't set in stone, because central
bank
officials are mindful of the possible mistakes of keeping interest rates
too low
for too long, as many believe was the case in the middle years of this
decade.
   Bullard also said the market was missing the policy story, in a sense,
by
thinking so much about what the Fed does with the Fed funds rates. "The
market's
focus on interest rates is disappointing, given quantitative easing," he
said.
   It is instead the provision of liquidity the Fed has offered via its
emergency lending programs that is key. "The liquidity programs naturally
taper
off as the crisis recedes," and are thus "not an inflationary concern,"
Bullard
said.
   Still, "the main challenge for monetary policy going forward will be
how to
adjust the asset purchase program without generating inflation and still
providing support to the economy while interest rates are near zero,"
Bullard
said.
   The official's comments came from a press release and presentation
released
to the press in advance of a speech Commerce Bank Economic Breakfast, in
Clayton,
Missouri. The remarks will be expanded when he gives the formal speech.
   Bullard is not currently a voting member of the interest rate setting
Federal
Open Market Committee, but he will be in 2010. His speech comes at a time
where
financial markets have been intensely focused on how the Fed will start
unwinding
its current policy stance given that the recession appears to be over.
   Already, many of the Fed's emergency lending efforts are ending due to
a lack
of market demand, while its major asset purchase programs will be wound
down by
the first quarter of next year. But it's unclear what the Fed will do with
what
effectively is its zero percent interest rate stance.
   Financial markets have wondered if the Fed would move sometime next
year, but
recent addresses from central bankers seem to suggest the Fed may not raise
rates
for many months.
   Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke this week and said an environment of
modest
growth, weak labor markets and no threat of inflation mean the central bank
can
keep rates at rock bottom levels for some time. Most private sector
economists
don't believe the Fed will raise rates until after the middle of next year,
and
many see the Fed holding off on tightening until 2011.
   In his remarks, Bullard noted the recovery is being driven by a
stabilization
in personal income and housing, along with abating stress in financial
markets
and improving global growth. Labor markets are still problematic, although
it's
good job losses have moderated.
   Bullard described inflation as low, although the Fed's large balance
sheet
has created a medium term risk to prices. He flagged volatile commodity
prices as
an issue and added "inflation uncertainty remains elevated compared with
last
fall."
   The official also said the financial system's too-big-to-fail problem
must be
dealt with.
   -By Michael S. Derby; Dow Jones Newswires, 212-416-2214
  michael.derby@dowjones.com
-0-
By Michael S. Derby
  Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

and..........................

14:34 18Nov09 DJN-DJ Jim Rogers Says Commodities To Perform Regardless Of
Economy<N.N>


   LONDON (Dow Jones)--Commodities is the best major asset class to invest
in because it is most likely to make money irrespective of whether the
world economy improves or worsens, commodities-investing expert Jim Rogers
said Wednesday.
   "For the most part, the only major asset class where the fundamentals
continue to improve and where one can probably make a lot of money whether
the economy gets better or gets worse would be commodities," Rogers said in
a conference call hosted by ETF Securities.
   "That's the best place to be and with my money, that and a few
currencies, are the places that I have been investing going forward because
I don't see any other asset class [worth investing in]."
   He said investors should sell out of bonds because governments are
likely to issue more debt in the future and inflation will rise. The stock
market may also be an unattractive asset class because its has been known
to remain rangebound for long periods of time, he said.
   Commodities, on the other hand, will perform well regardless of what
happens to the economy.
   "If the world economy gets better, commodities will be a very good
place to be if not the best place because the [supply] shortages continue
to get worse. If the world economy does not get better, commodities are
still going to be a good place to be because governments have printed so
much money and are continuing to print so much money," he said.

    -By Alex MacDonald, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)20 7842 9328;
alex.macdonald@dowjones.com

   (END) Dow Jones Newswires

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