http://fr.biz.yahoo.com/16092009/290/l-euro-un-plus-haut-de-neuf-mois-face-au.htmlVeuillez agréer l'expression de mes salutations distinguées.
Best regards
Mobius Spurns Brazil Share Offers as Gol Seeks Sale: Week Ahead
2009-09-08 03:00:01.3 GMT
By Telma Marotto and Francisco Marcelino
Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Brazilian companies lining up to sell stock after this year's 51 percent surge in the Bovespa index are offering "low quality," overpriced shares, said Templeton Asset Management Ltd.'s Mark Mobius.
At least 11 companies filed to sell equity in Brazil since July 31, including Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes SA, the nation's second-biggest airline, and Rossi Residencial SA, the sixth-largest homebuilder by assets. Only one company, the iron ore producer now known as Vale SA, sold stock in the second half
of 2008 before an eight-month drought in offerings.
"The new share sales that are coming out in Brazil are of relatively low quality and priced far above fair value,"
Mobius, who oversees about $25 billion as Templeton's executive chairman, wrote Sept. 2 in an e-mail response to questions. "We are not planning to buy any of the pending offerings we have seen thus far but it all depends on the final pricing."
Brazilian companies are returning to the market as stocks rally on prospects record-low interest rates and rising prices for the country's commodity exports will fuel growth in Latin America's largest economy. The national statistics agency, known as IBGE, will say on Sept. 11 that gross domestic product grew
between April and June for the first time in three quarters, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
The Bovespa's gain sent the valuation for the benchmark index last month to 24 times the reported earnings of its companies, the highest in at least five years. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fetches 19.3 times profit. "I can't see right now anything that makes me think valuations will go up more than this," said Carlos Camacho, who helps manage about 3 billion reais ($1.6 billion) at GAP Asset Management in Rio de Janeiro.
Pending IPOs
Share sales pending in Sao Paulo include initial public offerings of Rio-based Cetip SA - Balcao Organizado de Ativos &Derivativos, Brazil's biggest clearing house; Tivit Terceirizacao de Tecnologia e Servicos SA, a Sao Paulo-based
computer-services company; and Direcional Engenharia SA, a homebuilder based in Belo Horizonte. They follow Cia. Brasileira de Meios de Pagamento, the processor of Visa Inc. payments known as VisaNet, which raised 8.4 billion reais in a June IPO that set a record in Brazil.
Cetip, Tivit and Direcional declined to comment on their sales because of the so-called quiet period before the offering, according to spokeswomen for the companies.
Barueri-based VisaNet's initial share sale was the first in a year. There were only four new listings in 2008 as the global financial crisis deepened, compared with a record 64 in 2007. Almost 80 percent of the IPOs in Brazil since the beginning of 2006 trade below their offering price, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg.
'Cautious'
"In the past, the way to do well from deals in Brazil was to be very demanding in valuation and very skeptical and only participating in a few deals," said Urban Larson, a Latin America portfolio manager at F&C Management Ltd. in London, who oversees about $450 million in shares. "There's some very good companies that have gone public in Brazil in the last few years and it's possible to do quite well, but it's also a good idea to be cautious in looking at these deals."
Alberto Kiraly, a vice president for the National Investment Bank Association in Sao Paulo, said companies selling shares now will benefit from the country's economic rebound.
"All these companies should appreciate as they are closely linked to local demand," Kiraly said. "And the economic prospects suggest higher consumption and more credit available for purchases."
Economic Growth
Brazil's GDP grew 1.7 percent in the second quarter from the previous period, according to the median estimate of 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. It will shrink 0.3 percent in 2009 before expanding 4 percent next year, a central bank survey of 100 economists published Aug. 31 showed. That's more than economists' 2010 growth forecasts for Chile, Mexico and
Argentina, according to Bloomberg data.
"People selling those shares see an opportunity to obtain a high price at this time when sentiment is bullish," Mobius, 73, wrote in the e-mail. The Singapore-based investor, voted among the "Top Ten Money Managers of the 20th Century" by the Carson Group, said in July that Brazil is his top pick among
emerging-market countries after China. He declined to comment on
specific companies offering shares.
Companies selling stock "offer good opportunities for investors who want to be exposed to Brazilian local economy," said Guilherme Figueiredo, who helps oversee 1.7 billion reais as director at M Safra & Co. in Sao Paulo. "That said, I still think that the market is very sensitive and investors will look carefully into each company to assess valuation, earnings."
Rossi, Gol
Rossi, up 217 percent this year, is trading 52 percent below the 25 reais price at which it sold shares in February 2006. The Sao Paulo-based company said Sept. 1 it plans to sell up to 600 million reais of common stock. Three analysts rate Rossi a "buy," six rate it "hold" and two recommend selling the shares, according to Bloomberg data.
Gol, which said on Aug. 25 it is seeking to raise up to 650 million reais in a share sale, is down 32 percent since selling shares for 26.57 reais in a June 2004 initial offering. It has three analyst "buy" ratings, two "holds" and two "sells."
Sao Paulo-based Gol and Rossi said in e-mailed statements that they can't comment on the share sales, citing the quiet period.
"There's been a housing boom, an airline boom, an everything boom in Brazil since 2006 and here they are raising money below what they raised in the past," said Christopher Palmer, who oversees about $5 billion as Gartmore Investment Management Ltd.'s London-based head of global emerging markets. "How would you feel if you were one of those investors who
invested in 2006?"
Markets
The Bovespa index fell 1.8 percent to 56,652.28 last week, led by Banco Nossa Caixa SA, which dropped 8.9 percent. MMX Mineracao e Metalicos SA gained the most in the measure,advancing 5.5 percent.
The yield on the local-currency zero-coupon bonds due January 2011 fell three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 9.8 percent in the week. The real gained 2 percent to 1.8442 per U.S. dollar from 1.8812 on Aug. 28.
The following is a list of events in Brazil this week:
*T
Event Date
FGV CPI IPC-S Inflation Index - Weekly Sep 8
Weekly Trade Balance Sep 8
FIPE Consumer Price Index - Weekly Sep 9
FGV IGP-DI Inflation Index - August Sep 9
CNI Capacity Utilization - July Sep 9
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Sep 10
IBGE Inflation Index IPCA - August Sep 10
FGV Preview Inflation IGP-M - Sep. 10 Sep 11
Gross Domestic Product - 2nd Quarter Sep 11
*T
--Editors: Kara Wetzel, David Papadopoulos
To contact the reporter on this story:
Telma Marotto in Sao Paulo at +55-11-3048-4640 or
tmarotto1@bloomberg.net;
Francisco Marcelino in Sao Paulo at +55-11-3048-4643 or
mdeoliveira@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
David Papadopoulos in New York at +1-212-617-5105 or
papadopoulos@bloomberg.net
Publié le 07-09-09 à 16:53 Allocution de M. le Président de la République devant la communauté française Résidence de France à Brasilia – Lundi 7 septembre 2009
Mesdames et Messieurs,
Je voudrais vous dire le bonheur qui est le mien d'être au Brésil pour la deuxième fois cette année, accompagné d'une très importante délégation, j'y reviendrai, de ministres, de chefs d'entreprises.
Vous avez choisi le Brésil et il se trouve que moi aussi, parce que je suis persuadé que le Brésil est un partenaire incontournable pour la France. C'est un géant qui doit jouer un plus grand rôle dans les équilibres du monde. C'est un peuple fier qui doit être davantage considéré à la mesure de ce qu'il apporte à l'économie, à la stabilité du monde, à la culture. C'est un géant démographique. C'est un géant en superficie et politiquement, c'est un partenaire indispensable pour la France.
Nous avons décidé depuis 2 ans et demi avec le Président Lula de signer un partenariat stratégique qui ne soit pas simplement, comme si souvent, une addition de mots mais témoigne chaque jour d'une réalité.
Mes chers compatriotes du Brésil,
Il faut bien que vous compreniez que désormais, sur la scène mondiale, la France et le Brésil harmonisent tous leurs choix politiques. Je suis convaincu que l'organisation du monde d'aujourd'hui est obsolète, qu'elle est injuste, qu'il n'est pas raisonnable de vouloir régler les affaires du monde sans tenir compte d'un continent comme l'Amérique latine, d'un continent comme l'Afrique ou d'un pays continent comme l'Inde. La France réclame pour le Brésil une place de membre permanent du Conseil de sécurité. Il faut que nous obtenions la réforme de la gouvernance mondiale, et que nos amis brésiliens comprennent que le jour où ils auront toute leur place, tous leurs droits, ils devront assumer tous leurs devoirs, les devoirs d'une grande puissance. Il ne faut pas s'étonner que ceux que l'on appelle les pays émergents n'aient pas toujours la volonté d'assumer leur responsabilité à partir du moment où ils ont le sentiment, jour après jour, de ne pas être considérés à la juste proportion de ce qu'ils représentent sur le théâtre du monde.
C'est quelque chose auquel je crois profondément, je le dis pour le Brésil, je le pense pour l'Inde, je le pense pour un pays comme l'Afrique du Sud, bien sûr la Chine qui a des demandes permanentes, mais je refuse une organisation qui laisserait à penser que les grands dossiers du monde puissent se régler dans un dialogue avec les 8 du G8, ignorant tous ces pays du XXIe siècle. La France a été trop absente et lorsque l'on a été présent, c'était sympathique, on donnait toujours beaucoup d'affection mais parfois on décevait en ne tenant pas nos engagements. C'est très important pour moi cette quatrième rencontre bilatérale avec le Président Lula depuis le début de l'année, le deuxième voyage, parce que nous avons besoin des Brésiliens et les Brésiliens savent qu'ils peuvent [...]
Publié le 07-09-09 à 16:53 Allocution de M. le Président de la République devant la communauté française Résidence de France à Brasilia – Lundi 7 septembre 2009
Mesdames et Messieurs,
Je voudrais vous dire le bonheur qui est le mien d'être au Brésil pour la deuxième fois cette année, accompagné d'une très importante délégation, j'y reviendrai, de ministres, de chefs d'entreprises.
Vous avez choisi le Brésil et il se trouve que moi aussi, parce que je suis persuadé que le Brésil est un partenaire incontournable pour la France. C'est un géant qui doit jouer un plus grand rôle dans les équilibres du monde. C'est un peuple fier qui doit être davantage considéré à la mesure de ce qu'il apporte à l'économie, à la stabilité du monde, à la culture. C'est un géant démographique. C'est un géant en superficie et politiquement, c'est un partenaire indispensable pour la France.
Nous avons décidé depuis 2 ans et demi avec le Président Lula de signer un partenariat stratégique qui ne soit pas simplement, comme si souvent, une addition de mots mais témoigne chaque jour d'une réalité.
Mes chers compatriotes du Brésil,
Il faut bien que vous compreniez que désormais, sur la scène mondiale, la France et le Brésil harmonisent tous leurs choix politiques. Je suis convaincu que l'organisation du monde d'aujourd'hui est obsolète, qu'elle est injuste, qu'il n'est pas raisonnable de vouloir régler les affaires du monde sans tenir compte d'un continent comme l'Amérique latine, d'un continent comme l'Afrique ou d'un pays continent comme l'Inde. La France réclame pour le Brésil une place de membre permanent du Conseil de sécurité. Il faut que nous obtenions la réforme de la gouvernance mondiale, et que nos amis brésiliens comprennent que le jour où ils auront toute leur place, tous leurs droits, ils devront assumer tous leurs devoirs, les devoirs d'une grande puissance. Il ne faut pas s'étonner que ceux que l'on appelle les pays émergents n'aient pas toujours la volonté d'assumer leur responsabilité à partir du moment où ils ont le sentiment, jour après jour, de ne pas être considérés à la juste proportion de ce qu'ils représentent sur le théâtre du monde.
C'est quelque chose auquel je crois profondément, je le dis pour le Brésil, je le pense pour l'Inde, je le pense pour un pays comme l'Afrique du Sud, bien sûr la Chine qui a des demandes permanentes, mais je refuse une organisation qui laisserait à penser que les grands dossiers du monde puissent se régler dans un dialogue avec les 8 du G8, ignorant tous ces pays du XXIe siècle. La France a été trop absente et lorsque l'on a été présent, c'était sympathique, on donnait toujours beaucoup d'affection mais parfois on décevait en ne tenant pas nos engagements. C'est très important pour moi cette quatrième rencontre bilatérale avec le Président Lula depuis le début de l'année, le deuxième voyage, parce que nous avons besoin des Brésiliens et les Brésiliens savent qu'ils peuvent [...]
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| New York Times - há 36 minutos US gold futures for December delivery were down 0.3 percent at $993.90 per ounce, after settling down $1 at $996.70 on Friday. The contract rose to $999.50 ... |
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Proteção que vale ouro
Por Assis Moreira, de Genebra
03/09/2009
Texto: A- A+
O melhor ativo para investimento dos últimos dez anos foi o ouro. Quem investiu no metal ganhou 245% de rendimento em dólar entre julho de 1999 e julho deste ano, comparado a 3% de retorno obtido em média com aplicações em ações nas bolsas de países industrializados. O ouro bateu, inclusive, o ganho das ações das melhores companhias e dos emergentes.
O cálculo é do Instituto de Finanças Internacionais (IIF), associação que agrupa os maiores bancos do mundo. O instituto alerta num relatório confidencial que alguns ativos podem estar sobrevalorizados no contexto atual e com o risco de sofrer correções.
A crise global, com o desmoronamento dos mercados financeiros ao redor do mundo e a consequente busca por proteção dos investidores, alterou a classificação dos ativos que mais deram retorno. O ouro, visto como porto seguro em crises mais sérias, certamente foi beneficiado nos últimos dois anos pelo receio de que a crise americana afetasse o dólar. No longo prazo, depois do ouro, o segundo maior rendimento veio dos bônus soberanos de países emergentes, seguido do obtido pelas ações também dos emergentes. As commodities ganharam igualmente de títulos do tesouro americano e de títulos de dívida de empresas.
Já quem aplicou em ações nos mercados industrializados só ganhou 3% na média, em dólar, em dez anos, ainda mais depois do baque das bolsas americanas e europeias desde 2007. O mercado de ações nos Estados Unidos no período de 2007 a 2009 foi o que sofreu o declínio mais profundo e rápido. O resultado é que quem aplicou em ações no mercado americano registrou perda de 17% na média no periodo de dez anos.
No curto prazo, a situação está mudando, com sinais de melhora dos mercados acionários desde março. A analista Suki Cooper, do Barclays Capital, em Londres, nota que o ouro continua a ser atrativo, mas os indicadores de que a economia chegou ao fundo do poço - e que, portanto, as ações estavam novamente atrativas - aguçaram o apetite por risco. O metal amarelo se valorizou em 9% em dólar de março para cá, mais do que os 7% das commodities em geral.
Já no mercado de ações, as bolsas nos países emergentes tiveram alta de 76% em média e, nos países ricos, de 59%. Nos EUA, a queda foi mais rápida, mas a recuperação também tem sido mais veloz.
Vários ativos se recuperaram desde o segundo trimestre, sobretudo ativos que haviam caído mais, mas a maioria ainda não recuperou tudo o que perdeu na crise global. As ações dos emergentes, por exemplo, só voltaram ao nível de fins de 2006 e, no caso dos mercados dos países mais ricos, ao nível do começo de 2004.
O IIF aponta uma interação de três tendências que podem trazer mais flutuações nos mercados financeiros após um periodo de menor volatilidade. Primeiro, a recuperação econômica ocorre em mais países, elevando as expectativas de alta de juros. O Banco Central de Israel foi o primeiro a aumentar as taxas.
Segundo, bancos, principalmente nos EUA e na Europa, continuam o processo de desalavancagem e redução de ativos, com vários deles ainda sob pressão, sobretudo por causa de sua gigantesca exposição aos mercados imobiliários. Isso alimenta questões sobre o vigor e a sustentabilidade da recuperação econômica.
E terceiro, depois da substancial alta nos mercados desde março, a sobrevalorização pode não durar. O risco de "ganhos desapontadores" das empresas abertas neste terceiro trimestre pode deflagrar o gatilho para uma correção nos mercados de ações globalmente.
Um sinal dessa maior cautela com ativos de risco aparece no fluxo líquido de recursos para fundos de ações de mercados emergentes, que começou a desacelerar. Ao mesmo tempo, aumentou para fundos de ações dos Estados Unidos e de títulos de emergentes.
Segundo o IIF, o fluxo líquido para fundos de ações de emergentes passou de US$ 7,5 bilhões em junho para US$ 4,7 bilhões em julho. Em agosto, ficou em apenas US$ 1,4 bilhão. Os mercados asiáticos receberam a parte do leão durante o ano, com mais de US$ 13,5 bilhões, comparados a US$ 5,5 bilhões para fundos de ações da América Latina.
Por sua vez, o fluxo líquido para fundos de renda fixa (títulos soberanos e em moeda local) de emergentes aumentou nas últimas semanas, totalizando US$ 6,6 bilhões, depois de retirada líquida de US$ 119 bilhões durante 2008. Com pouca expectativa de juros mais altos no curto prazo, fundos de títulos dos EUA receberam fluxo líquido de US$ 30 bilhões desde o começo de julho, totalizando US$ 120 bilhões no ano.
Exportadores (não fixados) agradecem
DXY ta querendo forçar o mesmo sinal, já rompido por aqui.
Bolsa CAI por aqui...
Bonne semaine a tous.
Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Following is the text of U.S. consumer confidence from the Conference Board.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index ®, which had retreated in July, rebounded in August. The Index now stands at 54.1 (1985=100), up from 47.4 in July. The Present Situation Index increased slightly to 24.9 from 23.3 last month. The Expectations Index improved to 73.5 from 63.4 in July.
The Consumer Confidence Survey ® is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The Conference Board by TNS. TNS is the world’s largest custom research company. The cutoff date for August’s preliminary results was August 18th.
The labor market outlook was also more upbeat. The percentage of consumers expecting more jobs in the months ahead increased to 18.4 percent from 15.5 percent, while those expecting fewer jobs decreased to 23.3 percent from 26.1 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting an increase in their incomes increased slightly to 10.6 percent from 10.1 percent.
SOURCE: The Conference Board
http://www.conference-board.org
--Editor: Alex Tanzi
To contact the reporter on this story:
Andy Burt in Washington at +1-202-624-1984 or
aburt1@bloomberg.net
By Greg Peel
http://fnarena.com/fnarena.com/index4.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=30B69236-1871-E587-E114D3224A0098CB
IN nature, every action has consequences, a phenomenon called the butterfly effect. These consequences, moreover, are not necessarily proportional. For example, doubling the carbon dioxide we belch into the atmosphere may far more than double the subsequent problems for society. Realizing this, the world properly worries about greenhouse emissions.
The butterfly effect reaches into the financial world as well. Here, the United States is spewing a potentially damaging substance into our economy — greenback emissions.
